Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Maybe Elon's is working on a radioisotope power system to self charge the batteries in the next gen roadster.

Already done!
(Just because I love to say “Triphibian Atomicar”).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When the market insists on rationalizing residual value for ICE vehicles and accelerating depreciation, does the value of an in-ground barrel of oil move in lock-step? Lots of change the next 3 years.

 

[perwis]

"Bill Gates: We need more Elon Musks" | CNBC on Youtube

When Gates is asked directly "So you're not short Tesla stock, just so we're clear?" (@1:32), he rolls his eyes upward and mumbles "Yeah, I'm not... I don't talk about my investments".

View attachment 637822

Guiltyface @ 1:43

I guess some other foundation will get my money then. Really disappointed in Gates. And this the day after it becomes public that Berkshire bought a large stake in Chevron.

I hope Elon will start a foundation on his own. Just call it “The Foundation”, as in Asimov’s excellent book series (which I think is one of Elon’s favorites).

 

[MC3OZ]

but they absolutely have to fix this before their image in Europe is damaged any further.

It seems highly likely that some substantial portion of the problem is a software problem.

I think we saw at the end of the NextMove video where a software release made it substantially better.

I will not be surprised if it is progressively improved by software releases over 6-12 months, perhaps longer.

Sooner or later, we will hit the limit of what OTA software updates can fix.

What is surprising is that the problem wasn't fixed in China, they do get cold weather in China.
My guess would be Chinese software engineers were not up to the task, or did not deliver as promised.

The fact is with software, deadlines slipping, or unexpected problems occurring is not unusual.

What we don't know is whether the CATL pack has a level of intelligence. Maybe Tesla is partially dependent on CATL making some changes. Or maybe the CATL pack doesn't have the right interfaces to provide the Tesla BMS with sufficient information.

IMO this shows the difficulty in integrating software and hardware components, which is a likely source of headaches for OEMS.

Tesla probably can't wait to make their own packs from 4680 LFP cells.

In terms of fixing the problem, we don't know where the software is at, or if there is any dependency on CATL.
There is a good chance it will be substantially better next winter, for this winter the clock is running, and solving the problem might not be easy.

In relation to avoiding this type of problem in future, vertical integration and sufficient testing are the best bets.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Feb 18, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Model 3/Y Pricing and CATL Surprise"

Pre-Market:

Volume: 636,457
SP High $798.15
SP Low $776.00​

Main Session:

Traded: $13,948,499,766.20 ($13.95B)
Volume: 17,732,494
VWAP: $786.61

Close: $787.38 / VWAP: 100.10%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $760 (-$10 from Wed)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.823388% (Feb 17)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $755.77B / $767.134B = 98.52%
NB: Yahoo & Google have updated Mkt Cap re 10-K shares (Feb 10, 2021)

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including 10-K (Feb 01) shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $803.15B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $542.08B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 45.5% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 58.9% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.40% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @kengchang "CATL US hiring on-site engineer for Fremont/Austin"

Comment: "LFP Batteries coming to the U.S.A"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

Did CNBC bump Ron to save some airtime for Gojo? He get's the special info and it's fun to try and glean meaning from his comments.

 

[Singuy]

Did CNBC bump Ron to save some airtime for Gojo? He get's the special info and it's fun to try and glean meaning from his comments.

Cnbc plays to the narrative. Gali once said he was canceled because tesla that day was tanking.

 

[Nocturnal]

If they think that is impressive wait until they see what the Cybertruck can do. A tri-motor CT should be able to power my home for several days.

Texas Winter Storm: Some use Ford F-150 hybrids to power homes (cnbc.com)

• Some 2021 Ford F-150 hybrid truck owners in Texas are using the onboard generator feature to power their homes during the winter storm that’s left millions without power.
• The 2021 Ford F-150 hybrid truck’s PowerBoost onboard generator “gives you the ability to use your truck like a mobile generator,” according to the company’s promotional materials.
• “Without it I would have been in the dark and cold like everybody else in the neighborhood,” the retired refinery worker said, adding that he helped neighbors charge their phones and laptops. “Quite a few of the neighbors said, ‘Hey, I’m getting one, like ‘I’m trading my Dodge or GMC,’ because, South Texas, with hurricanes and things like that, we’re always having power outages.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Model 3 Is Consumer Reports’ Top Pick For Electric Car | OilPrice.com

Not bad to get a little positive attention from Consumer Reports (and OilPrice.com).

Also note that the reporter is picking up on the 24% price reduction of Model 3 in Japan. This is in part because the vehicle is now produced in China for export. These articles are targeted for oil investors, so it is interesting that the made-in-China angle is potentially threatening to oil investors.

 

[joh01652]

Here's a pro-Tesla solar/storage article from Bloomberg, paints Tesla and solar/storage in a positive light: How the Rich can escape America's unreliable power grid

Interestingly, the article starts off with a wealthy Oracle exec who has a home powered by a massive Tesla solar and Powerpack system.

Also, the article mentions Larry Ellison--I think you all will appreciate this quote, especially since someone today said Musk likes islands for his solar projects: "Larry Ellison, who serves on the board of directors of Tesla Inc. and is the chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, has expressed interest in a microgrid for Lanai, the island in Hawaii that he bought in 2012. Tesla disclosed in a regulatory filing that director James Murdoch purchased a Powerpack system from the company for $600,000 in 2019 and that in 2020, a company affiliated with Ellison 'entered into an agreement to obtain preliminary design services from us for an estimated $400,000, relating to the potential future implementation of a Tesla Energy system.'"

Maybe Musk met with Ellison on his island to discuss a microgrid for Lanai.

 

[jhm]

Volkswagen Shares Jump After News Of Possible Porsche Listing | OilPrice.com

VW is contemplating spinning off Porsche in an IPO. What do we make of this? Is VW divesting a brand it thinks will not survive the transition to EVs? How much does VW need the cash to fund its own transition to EVs? Or does this have little to do with EVs?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

No TSLA purchases reported by ARK today.

 

[Singuy]

Hopefully a minor rally tomorrow ending this crappy week.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen makes push for major stimulus, sees bigger risk in not doing enough (cnbc.com)

 

[Nocturnal]

Volkswagen Shares Jump After News Of Possible Porsche Listing | OilPrice.com

VW is contemplating spinning off Porsche in an IPO. What do we make of this? Is VW divesting a brand it thinks will not survive the transition to EVs? How much does VW need the cash to fund its own transition to EVs? Or does this have little to do with EVs?

I saw that too. I don't see how it can be anything but EV related. Spin off the company that can still be profitable (for a while) selling gas cars and use those funds to offset EV losses and development costs?

 

[capster]

Volkswagen Shares Jump After News Of Possible Porsche Listing | OilPrice.com

VW is contemplating spinning off Porsche in an IPO. What do we make of this? Is VW divesting a brand it thinks will not survive the transition to EVs? How much does VW need the cash to fund its own transition to EVs? Or does this have little to do with EVs?

They just bought up Porsche not that long ago. Now they want to spit it out again?

DaimlerChrysler lasted about 10 years too, IIRC.

Volkswagen swallows Porsche

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Even in my old age it outrages and depresses me to witness rank incompetence and bald faced lies being rewarded by the market. I have seen it over and over again but each mindless, screaming incarnation of this political ‘strategy’ is more of a ridiculous caricature than the last.

The Gov of Texas concocts absurd stories of communist renewables to be blamed for his catastrophe to pander to his base and financial backers, a bunch of right wing sharks and fossil PR groups disseminate and amplify the lies, and suddenly all things solar and renewable get hammered in the market for days as if the truth is finally exposed.

Perhaps they had simply run up too far and were looking for an excuse to sell off pre Biden climate plan whereupon they will probably skyrocket again.

Even so, it reminds of the rot that permeates our system. Maybe all systems in great empires have been this way in history. Then again all of them are history.

Where are we headed?

Please don’t get too depressed. Remember, this is all about the money:
How Much the Oil Industry Paid Texas Republicans Lying About Wind Energy

What’s happening in Texas right now is a perfect storm of poor planning, crazy weather, and a widespread government failure to prepare the electric grid. Fossil fuels had a big part to play in how this disaster went down as natural gas and coal sources failed at multiple points, from energy sources themselves freezing to pipelines shutting down. The Texas grid’s terrible setup—a lack of integration with other states to ensure a consistent power supply, lagging weatherization updates, predatory pricing habits—can’t be tied to one source, but politicians like Crenshaw, Cruz, and Abbott are choosing to hammer down on renewables while blessing fossil fuels, similar to how they’ve reacted during California’s blackouts in recent years. While it’s impossible to say why, their donations tell a pretty damning story here—and research has shown donors make it rain on politicians who do their bidding.

 

[Krugerrand]

...but they absolutely have to fix this before their image in Europe is damaged any further.

Honestly, we’ve heard that line (insert region of choice) before.

*yawn*

And here’s just one itty bitty example in an ocean of unlimited choices; VW is still selling a lot of cars (in Europe - since that’s the place we’re talking about) even after bald face lying to everyone there about how not lethal their cars were.

So, yeah. Don’t be so dramatic. It’ll get addressed just like everything else does and as usual people’s memories will be short.

 

[MC3OZ]

Dave has an impressive body of work, I wonder how how he finds the time to do all these great videos..

I think the interview format helps, as editing requirements might be minimal.

 

[StateoftheArt]

You know, it is funny how a failing infrastructure in the USA becomes a partisan issue. Last time I checked both parties have just let the entire USA infrastructure age to the point where it may be too late. It looks like deliberate managed decline to me. Why would that be? Who benefits?

Meanwhile, do you all know how many coal plants China built in 2020?

Things that make you go hmmm.

 

[22522]

You know, it is funny how a failing infrastructure in the USA becomes a partisan issue. Last time I checked both parties have just let the entire USA infrastructure age to the point where it may be too late. It looks like deliberate managed decline to me. Why would that be? Who benefits?

Meanwhile, do you all know how many coal plants China built in 2020?

Things that make you go hmmm.

China has 250 GW of coal-fired power under development - study