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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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We are entering a new era.

I am buying a piece of equipment which I may only use if I let it monitor my behavior and if it agrees with my actions.
If it does not agree, it will not function.
If I do not want to be monitored, it will not function.

As cars are getting more 'intelligent' I begin to feel less important. Am I really on the wheel? A truly intelligent car would make sure not to make me feel inferior.

There is a big difference between the car warning me about a danger or revoking functions that I have paid for. Was I informed of this behavior of the software before I purchased? Can it be refunded, if the conditions are changed by the seller of the equipment?
It’s only ever an issue for people who think they don’t need to follow the *safety* rules, which protects not just themselves (whom they clearly don’t care about or they would be paying attention and operating the rolling mass of metal with great care) but also everyone else in their immediate vicinity. The latter being people they have no right to endanger. And that’s what’s relevant; none of the rest.
 
Yeah, that's silly. With Tesla projecting 50% growth YoY, a logarithmic Y axis is more appropriate:
$2k by EoY (at least with my poorly drawn line)...
View attachment 644030
While revenue might grow exponentially from here on out, the SP probably won't. The current SP has gotten a bit ahead of itself which has resulted in a very large PE ratio. As revenues grow the SP will likely increase at a lesser rate, allowing the PE to grow into a more rational valuation over time.

I feel $3500/share by 2030 is a safe bet, with $4000-$5000 fairly likely, yet also with a much higher valuation slightly possible. Elon has stated the energy market could grow to be the same size as auto and the software side of Tesla will be a large profit center by 2030, but robotaxi revenue is the real wildcard in any predictive model. We simply can't predict how enormous TaaS is going to be revenue-wise. It will obviously be disruptive and Tesla has an incredibly high chance to grab a huge majority of the new TaaS market this decade, but the very nature of the disruption is hard to quantify in dollars.

There is a decent chance all of us TSLA HODL'ers are going to be incredibly filthy rich by 2030.
 
Yesterday’s big TSLA-related news IMO is the announcement that future FSD versions will be vision only. Reasons why this is a big deal:

1. Radar already seemed redundant. Humans don’t use radar to drive.

2. Future cars will probably see radar systems removed. Benefits of this:

a. Increased margin per car on the order of a few hundred dollars, or cheaper cars. Either way, a win.
b. Less parts = more reliability.
c. Less power consumption, both for the radar unit itself, and for the processing of this data. Also, more compute time available to process vision data.

3. Passive vision doesn’t get confused by bounced reflections (like when driving thru a tunnel).

4. Shows that Tesla has high confidence in the reliability of its vision sensing.

5. AP team can focus on vision 100%. In a way, narrows the scope of the problem.

The only possible downside of eliminating radar that I can see is that you can’t bounce passive vision under the car in front of you to see the car in front of that one. You may be able to get around this with vision by training the system to identify cars by looking through the lead car’s windows. Tesla might find they want to keep radar for this reason, but I’m betting radar goes away over the next year or two.

BTW I don’t see radar’s ability to see through fog as an advantage, because if the fog is that heavy your vision system won’t work anyway and you can’t drive on just radar alone.

Impact to TSLA:

Short term: none. The market is not smart enough to figure this out.
Longer term: Tesla widens autonomy lead against the current players dependent on active sensors (Waymo, Cruise) for localization and driving tasks.
 
Yesterday’s big TSLA-related news IMO is the announcement that future FSD versions will be vision only. Reasons why this is a big deal:

1. Radar already seemed redundant. Humans don’t use radar to drive.

2. Future cars will probably see radar systems removed. Benefits of this:

a. Increased margin per car on the order of a few hundred dollars, or cheaper cars. Either way, a win.
b. Less parts = more reliability.
c. Less power consumption, both for the radar unit itself, and for the processing of this data. Also, more compute time available to process vision data.

3. Passive vision doesn’t get confused by bounced reflections (like when driving thru a tunnel).

4. Shows that Tesla has high confidence in the reliability of its vision sensing.

5. AP team can focus on vision 100%. In a way, narrows the scope of the problem.

The only possible downside of eliminating radar that I can see is that you can’t bounce passive vision under the car in front of you to see the car in front of that one. You may be able to get around this with vision by training the system to identify cars by looking through the lead car’s windows. Tesla might find they want to keep radar for this reason, but I’m betting radar goes away over the next year or two.

BTW I don’t see radar’s ability to see through fog as an advantage, because if the fog is that heavy your vision system won’t work anyway and you can’t drive on just radar alone.

Impact to TSLA:

Short term: none. The market is not smart enough to figure this out.
Longer term: Tesla widens autonomy lead against the current players dependent on active sensors (Waymo, Cruise) for localization and driving tasks.
This also may spell the death of Lidar. The interference from lots of cars using Lidar could make the data collected by cars using the same frequency a real problem.
 
The car should be better than humans. Radar, thermal imaging, night vision, could all be used to improve safety, assuming cost effective. This seems like a step backwards.
I agree it should be better humans, and I admit I haven’t researched the actual number, but I’m sure an overwhelming percentage of accidents are not caused by the fact that 360° Vision couldn’t have SEEN the threat to avoid the accident, but instead are caused by driver inattentiveness, aggression, recklessness, and poor driving policy decisions. Adding radar might decrease accident rate of an otherwise good FSD system by 0.005%. But if the increased cost results in 1% less people getting FSD because they can’t afford it, it might be a step backward.

Just saying it’s a possibility.
 

At what point does this become so blatant that CNBC can be held liable for misinformation with intent to harm Tesla investors? Those numbers are such a outrageous lie that it seems to me it would be pretty difficult for CNBC to claim it was an honest mistake
Yes, seriously, because of what I've learned here on TMC I have stopped reading almost any sort of news now. The lies/misinformation/misinterpretation are so blatant and constant regarding Tesla I feel I have no option but to disregard all of it. And that goes for covid news, political news, etc. Mainstream media is a wholly captured pawn of wealthy special interests. I view "news" as mostly veiled advertisement with a sprinkling of light entertainment. I'd suspect Twitter and Facebook are just as bad if not worse.

It's every person for him/herself now with regard to "truth," whatever that is anymore. I try to make decisions based on outcome, not knowledge, my main goal to limit downside exposure the best I can since I walk through the world blind, deaf and dumb.

It's nice to come to TMC where participants are incentivized to try to get a handle on what's true. TMC is my main source of information now. Kind of sad, really.
 
Is my assumption correct:
With the surround camera BEV NN-rewrite (Birds Eye View using all camera feeds), Tesla has solved vision and made LIDAR & HD mapping obsolete?

So real world can be replicated in vector space.



However this doesn't necessarily mean L5 FSD is reached. The logic/decision making (manual code or based on NN) on how to react to the environment still needs a lot of debugging?
Or will this be solved using Dojo through end-to-end learning? (Training on steering wheel/accelerator input vs vector objects)
On a foggy day or dark night, I would think I would miss the radar just a little bit
 
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Yesterday’s big TSLA-related news IMO is the announcement that future FSD versions will be vision only. Reasons why this is a big deal:

1. Radar already seemed redundant. Humans don’t use radar to drive.

2. Future cars will probably see radar systems removed. Benefits of this:

a. Increased margin per car on the order of a few hundred dollars, or cheaper cars. Either way, a win.
b. Less parts = more reliability.
c. Less power consumption, both for the radar unit itself, and for the processing of this data. Also, more compute time available to process vision data.

3. Passive vision doesn’t get confused by bounced reflections (like when driving thru a tunnel).

4. Shows that Tesla has high confidence in the reliability of its vision sensing.

5. AP team can focus on vision 100%. In a way, narrows the scope of the problem.

The only possible downside of eliminating radar that I can see is that you can’t bounce passive vision under the car in front of you to see the car in front of that one. You may be able to get around this with vision by training the system to identify cars by looking through the lead car’s windows. Tesla might find they want to keep radar for this reason, but I’m betting radar goes away over the next year or two.

BTW I don’t see radar’s ability to see through fog as an advantage, because if the fog is that heavy your vision system won’t work anyway and you can’t drive on just radar alone.

Impact to TSLA:

Short term: none. The market is not smart enough to figure this out.
Longer term: Tesla widens autonomy lead against the current players dependent on active sensors (Waymo, Cruise) for localization and driving tasks.

This is about #4. This will be a demonstration of how advanced Tesla's camera-vision system is. This is to show investors, LIDAR lovers, and Waymo wankers that future autonomy can be solved with vision.

Make no mistake, any sensor fusion system is improved by adding a non-redundant sensor like Radar when properly modeled for.

But this isn't FSD alpha, it's FSD beta where a new version could be significantly better than the previous even while dropping radar. Sure you could add radar back on in the end for an additional small improvement in accuracy. But it's small peanuts in the current development cycle and Elon is focused on changing the narrative.

Vision will rule.
 
We are entering a new era.

I am buying a piece of equipment which I may only use if I let it monitor my behavior and if it agrees with my actions.
If it does not agree, it will not function.
If I do not want to be monitored, it will not function.

As cars are getting more 'intelligent' I begin to feel less important. Am I really on the wheel? A truly intelligent car would make sure not to make me feel inferior.

There is a big difference between the car warning me about a danger or revoking functions that I have paid for. Was I informed of this behavior of the software before I purchased? Can it be refunded, if the conditions are changed by the seller of the equipment?

It’s only ever an issue for people who think they don’t need to follow the *safety* rules, which protects not just themselves (whom they clearly don’t care about or they would be paying attention and operating the rolling mass of metal with great care) but also everyone else in their immediate vicinity. The latter being people they have no right to endanger. And that’s what’s relevant; none of the rest.
I think the broader concern raised by OP was about personal privacy and what ownership really means going forward.

We live in a world where our rights are limited by EULAs we never read. And even if we did read them, they can change without sufficient notice. It becomes more of an issue with every passing day as everything becomes "smart". My oven has an internet connection for goodness sake.
 
So, so tempting, but now isn't the moment for me (house buying and all that...)

What's kinda interesting is that the price is only about 40% more than I paid for my current MX, and I bought that when I wasn't even 20% of a Teslanaire...
What I'm hearing you say in no uncertain terms, is a Founder's Edition Roadster is a no-brainer now..., just have to convince the woman. ;)
 
Just watched a very nice GM commercial for EVs. EVerybody needs an EV. The end of the commercial announces GM will have lots of EV come 2025. Seems aimed at holding brand loyalty, please just wait for us.
We knew this day was coming, when Big Auto would start advertising for EVs. This has such massive upside not only for Tesla but for all EVs and the environment because more and more people will hold off on buying another ICE and wait for when an appropriately priced EV comes their way. I know several people who are holding off on buying another vehicle until they can afford an EV, and that list is sure to grow.
 
Yesterday’s big TSLA-related news IMO is the announcement that future FSD versions will be vision only. Reasons why this is a big deal:

1. Radar already seemed redundant. Humans don’t use radar to drive.

2. Future cars will probably see radar systems removed. Benefits of this:

a. Increased margin per car on the order of a few hundred dollars, or cheaper cars. Either way, a win.
b. Less parts = more reliability.
c. Less power consumption, both for the radar unit itself, and for the processing of this data. Also, more compute time available to process vision data.

3. Passive vision doesn’t get confused by bounced reflections (like when driving thru a tunnel).

4. Shows that Tesla has high confidence in the reliability of its vision sensing.

5. AP team can focus on vision 100%. In a way, narrows the scope of the problem.

The only possible downside of eliminating radar that I can see is that you can’t bounce passive vision under the car in front of you to see the car in front of that one. You may be able to get around this with vision by training the system to identify cars by looking through the lead car’s windows. Tesla might find they want to keep radar for this reason, but I’m betting radar goes away over the next year or two.

BTW I don’t see radar’s ability to see through fog as an advantage, because if the fog is that heavy your vision system won’t work anyway and you can’t drive on just radar alone.

Impact to TSLA:

Short term: none. The market is not smart enough to figure this out.
Longer term: Tesla widens autonomy lead against the current players dependent on active sensors (Waymo, Cruise) for localization and driving tasks.
If memory serves the radar sends processed data on the bus and not raw returns. It would be doing the processing locally and just returning a max of I think 20 or so returns over the CAN bus at a time. Not a huge processor savings on the Tesla side. The savings would therefor be from the radar side. Removes one more not Tesla black box with potential supply chain disruption problems from the logistics chain that is a Tesla.
 
Much of Tesla's accident avoidance advantage is from the radar detecting 2 cars ahead. I don't see Tesla losing the radar even if not used for FSD.

Humans need a certain response time but computers far less. The data may suggest that accurate ranging via vision is sufficient to avoid collisions for a computer controlled vehicle.