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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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What the heck to do with my DITM calls expiring tomorrow. Decisions, decisions. Should have rolled them a long time ago but there was a chance I'd exercise. Now I'm thinking just take the dwindling profits and roll them to LEAPs.
My March 19 $220 calls expire tomorrow (bought them 12 months ago). The decision comes down to this: will prices go up tomorrow? If short term stock price movements are unpredictable it's a coinflip 50/50. I don't have evidence that I'm better than 50% at predicting tomorrow's stock price, so might as well just ride it out.
 
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“Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

-- Thomas Paine (1776)

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Bring on more FUD and volatility.
 
Worst case scenario, 10 year rates bump up all the way to 2%, 2.2% before FED takes action.
So question then becomes how low can Markets, NAS and Tesla go ... headwinds ahead
Need to watch the NAS 100MA once again I guess ..
It sure looks like the market is pricing in something beyond 1.75%. It always looks ahead. The way up to 2% might not be as painful as anticipated.
 
This thread is full of folks that bought low and are dealing with tolerating a lower paper gains, though it sounds like the people who have been here for a while have tolerated being underwater and survived. They give me strength, whereas I have learned how to cope with buying high and not flinching at my paper losses, and to keep throwing money into a dark dark hole with no end in sight. It's exhilarating but it may get old when the shut power off if it keeps up. I still have good kidneys (one for sale and the other on margin) and I'm going to have like 5 kidneys if it turns around. Then who will be laughing? Me.... awash in kidneys up to my eyeballs! hahahaha! Wait where are y'all going?
 
$700c for next Friday didn't quite fill. Hopefully an even better opportunity tomorrow. Is there logic in a 3xwitching push down tomorrow followed by a snap back to $700+ middle of next week?
Max Pain was still at $650, but a quick look at the chart (yes, it's always a snapshot of previous day's close, I know), indicated still that between $680 and $685 would be the most profitable

Of course the event-horizon the of the 10Y singularity might prove too much even for the mightiest of the MM's, we shall see!

I do believe we could fo 10% either way tomorrow or somewhere between the two. I am quietly confident that the 31x cc's I have at $720 and $780 strikes will expire worthless... But I won't cry if they don't ether ☺️
 
I watched it - it is what one could expect. Not a word about Tesla's opportunity to establish itself in India via Tesla Energy - which should have huge potential, given the unreliable power grids and high PV capacity factor there. The focus was entirely on the low price point of cars (and 2- & 3-wheelers), and while CNBC did touch on the potential for Tesla's expected priced-lower-than-Model3 car, I expect Tesla will do something else with India. Tesla could for example establish a PV- and LFP-cell production there and then later start production there of the model that is currently under development in China - with cheap, locally produced cells. With Tesla Energy well-established and well-recognized, the combination of an electric car and PV + a Powerwall (all integrated) should be really popular - among the upper class. The country does seem to have some lithium and nickel, so maybe they could also secure local supplies for higher capacity cells. Eventually, with cheap enough batteries, an even smaller Tesla could perhaps be designed for the Indian market. But I can easily see why smaller and richer markets such as Israel come first.
And Tesla would like to intersect with India in near future. They are not standing still, so huge vehicle capital equipment isn't necessary at first, but the marketing channels (the public) will drive the demand curve hard. It's India, now think IT. Seems clear to me what's going to happen.

On that price argument... I've heard from others, including myself, who paid way more for a vehicle than even in their lifetime, and by a significant margin - even getting in early on Tesla products despite the initial premium lines. If the Tesla value proposition is competitive in India (ie, a car from the future), then India is about to have their average price of $12K raised a bit when this factory comes online, IMHO.
 
This thread is full of folks that bought low and are dealing with tolerating a lower paper gains, though it sounds like the people who have been here for a while have tolerated being underwater and survived. They give me strength, whereas I have learned how to cope with buying high and not flinching at my paper losses, and to keep throwing money into a dark dark hole with no end in sight. It's exhilarating but it may get old when the shut power off if it keeps up. I still have good kidneys (one for sale and the other on margin) and I'm going to have like 5 kidneys if it turns around. Then who will be laughing? Me.... awash in kidneys up to my eyeballs! hahahaha! Wait where are y'all going?
Indeed, this isn't particularly tough right now, not for the long-term investors. Of course if your cost-basis is above $800 then YMMV
 
Folks keep getting their feathers all ruffled over the FUD and misrepresentation of the facts. I really don't see it as a bad thing in the long run.

Consider for a moment how these annoying things may actually be some of the biggest contributors to the SP rise over time.

Here's a little perspective to keep in mind:
  • Truth always wins out. Most people will know a good thing when they see it. Despite what fictions the media may spout.​

  • Production is currently constrained, so, it is better now to have lies affecting sales and SP than to have an inconvenient truth like production capacity getting the headlines, isn't it?​

  • Tesla is really just at the Proof of Concept stage right now. Mostly because The Machine That Builds The Machine is the product that matters most, and this part of the story is in the early chapters.​

  • Many/most people are already wary of FUD to some degree and will discount claims that appear to be over the top.​

  • Those other companies who are getting preference in the market and in the media will now have to step up to the plate and take a swing. Tesla is pitching fast balls. I think we already know the batting average of those players. There won't be any home runs and I seriously doubt they will get a man on base anytime soon.​

  • Once battery, and thus vehicle/energy-product production, is significantly higher, all of those customers who have been patiently waiting will be able to order and receive Tesla products. Videos will be made, word of mouth testimonials will be shared. With this, FOMO will set in with the media who will find themselves not reporting on a popular swell among their viewers and to some degree will be forced to capitulate in order to remain at least somewhat relevant.​

  • Assaulting entrenched opponents like Big Auto and Big Oil will always be more successful when performed with stealth and understated fanfare. It is okay for this all to be played down by their manipulations while they figure out how to adjust, or even survive. At least this way they are not being backed into a corner openly by Tesla, rather, they are backing themselves into corners in the privacy of their boardrooms. Always best not to get too close to a cornered and frightened animal, right?​

  • The SP being held now will result in steeper gains in the future as the pressure builds. Upcoming ramps in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin will be like a volcano erupting with flows of batteries, vehicles, and other products increasing multi-fold over a relatively short period of time.​

  • The sole fact to keep in mind is how all of Tesla's (and SpaceX/BoringCo/Neuralink/etc.) products will do the job better, will cost less, will be more reliable, and will continue to pay dividends to the planet through reduced carbon, reduced cost of energy, and in the long run will result in a higher standard of living for every person on the planet.​

With this in mind, there will be some backlash, some gnashing of the teeth, some spitting and fussing as the entrenched and archaic power brokers of yesteryear come to terms with the fact that there has been a paradigm shift and their time in the sun has run its course.
 
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Just got an update 4.12 installing now....I assume this doesn’t add the button.

im guessing the button will appear as a consequence of a flagged feature rather than an update. So they probably already have the software for the download button on 4.11. But when the software reaches out to the Tesla server and asks “should I show the button” it just responds with no so no button is shown. This way they can make the button appear without pushing an update and can also roll the update button out incrementally with minimal server load.

TLDR I don’t think that ANY update will all the sudden show a button