Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neverdone]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372951335008563203

You know Tesla has made it when shows are using autopilot as a plot device for serial killers.

omg. My wife and I watched episode 9 of Big Sky to see the entire sequence. Streaming on comcast so we had to watch all the commercials. What dedication.

 

[2daMoon]

SMR on what Tesla might do in India is interesting and his conclusion makes sense. I recently saw that the world's largest Solar farm is in India. They are already on the road to transitioning to solar in a big way. Tesla Energy will be the most significant reason for an India presence.

Naturally, the media knuckleheads think Tesla is a car company and make no mention of the possibility of Tesla's potential in India without it being cars.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Great news from Giga Berlin:

Tesla, GIGA BERLIN, March 19/2021, GigaBerlin is close to the finish first offices are occupied.​

Skip to around 10:20 for a view of the offices.

Thanks - missed the office when skipping through.
Bit click-baity title though ? - "Occupied" sound like "by actual people" to me, not by chairs and tables.
But sure, having not only enclosed spaces but also furniture is a nice milestone.

 

[Singuy]

Apparently they are practically giving away 2021 Toyota Mirai.

Select LA/SF Dealers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15k Fuel Card $23,100 after Tax Credits & Incentives (Select Locations)

Select Eligible Toyota Dealers [Dealer Locator] located in Los Angeles / San Francisco, California are offering to Qualifying Customers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15,000 in Compl ...

slickdeals.net

 

[StealthP3D]

Indeed, you can't drive around U.S. military bases with a dash cam either. Neither can Google 'Street view' take pictures at the U.S. Border. Nor does Homeland security allow 'certain' pictures of the Golden Gate Bridge:

Bay Area Photographer Facing Action After Taking Photo of Golden Gate Bridge From 'Illegal Angle'

A Bay Area photographer is facing legal trouble for posting a composited picture of the Golden Gate Bridge with the blood moon, which was taken from an “illegal angle.” The Bridge District claims the angle shows that the photographer must have trespassed into a restricted area in order to get...

fstoppers.com

TL;dr this is a BOO! FUD story engineered to frighten the Plebeians.
.

Up next: Inside Sources detail how the small size of Tesla's new "World Car" will enable voyeuristic photography inside the changing rooms of the US. Olympic Gymnastic Team's largest facilities. The implications are sobering as many team members are minors. Elon Musk has not responded to our request for comment.

/s

 

[SpaceCash]

Apparently they are practically giving away 2021 Toyota Mirai.

Select LA/SF Dealers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15k Fuel Card $23,100 after Tax Credits & Incentives (Select Locations)

Select Eligible Toyota Dealers [Dealer Locator] located in Los Angeles / San Francisco, California are offering to Qualifying Customers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15,000 in Compl ...

slickdeals.net

Ooohhh $15K of free fuel!

With the teeny tiny catch that there is hardly anywhere to fuel it, and when you get to the station, they're all out.

 

[Christine69420]

Thanks - missed the office when skipping through.
Bit click-baity title though ? - "Occupied" sound like "by actual people" to me, not by chairs and tables.
But sure, having not only enclosed spaces but also furniture is a nice milestone.

The title could be imprecise if the uploader isn't a native speaker of the English language.

 

[Norwalk79]

China bans Tesla cars in military complexes on concerns about cameras - Bloomberg News

The Chinese military has banned Tesla Inc's cars from military complexes and housing compounds because of concerns about sensitive data being collected by cameras built into the vehicles, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. https://bloom.bg/30UmU1M) Tesla...

finance.yahoo.com

I don’t imagine this impacts large numbers of Tesla sales, but something the Fudsters may run with; and good for the longs to be aware of nonetheless.

May also be connected with geopolitical sabre rattling of late.

China is very afraid of 8 external cameras and 4 internal cameras of Tesla EVs that can record its secrets in its military complexes. So easy to understand.

 

[Norwalk79]

Tesla and its Opponents/Competitors

As I read the most recent news, here is my summary:

UBS, with the contribution of 21 analysts, said massive disruption is beginning in $1.5 Trillion global trucking market, that’s why the gold medalist genius Elon Musk assigned Jerome Guillen to specifically handle its Semi Trucking division.

The gold medalist genius Elon Musk is a champion in the following field: EV, Cybertruck, Semi truck, Clean energy and Power Storage, FSD and robotaxis, Space X and Starlink with its 1000 satellites for Global Internet.

Here is Tesla’s opponent/competitor: First tier: oil industries and oil nations in Middle East + Russia (relies on oil income). The Tesla smearing campaign is already started by Russia + VW

Tier 2: VW, Chinese EV companies, and All other funds jealous of the rocket Tesla flying too high making their investment look bad compared to Cathie Wood's funds, including MS Bill Gates shorted Tesla

Tier 3: All the forever Tesla shorts, including all the past and present fund managers shorting Tesla.

For each Tesla short sellers, we need 5 good and rich long buyers/fund managers to bring back Tesla stock price. This will last the whole 2021 yr until Tesla performs excellent delivery for 2021 and earning on Jan 27th 2022. There is a solid reason for Elon to invest in Bitcoin, not for fun.

The 1st 8,000 tons Gigapress for Cybertruck is seen in Giga factory Texas. It is used to make several solid pieces of stainless steel folded like origami to make the final triangular Cybertruck shape. It is similar to the smaller 6,000-ton casting machine used for the Model Y. Remember that Shanghai Giga makes 1 Model Y every 2 min, or 700 per day.

Tesla’s first 8k-ton Giga Press for Cybertruck production showcased in new video

 

[tschmidty]

As you might be aware, I had $650 as the MM's target today, and regardless of the close, I think they were pushing for that

Anyway, I had 17x cc780 and 14x cc720 expiring today. I closed these positions for pennies a couple of hours before the bell and resold $660 & $664 strikes to land en extra $2700, which I converted to 4x $TSLA closer to the close

Looking forward to more green Monday/Tuesday and selling a pile of CC's, which will be converted to more $TSLA

I am guessing you sold 1x of the 660 and 664 strikes but why so close to ITM? Just trying to understand the logic, I understand options but am leary of anything but selling covered calls that are at least +15% over current strike.

 

[PeterJA]

Great news from Giga Berlin:

Tesla, GIGA BERLIN, March 19/2021, GigaBerlin is close to the finish first offices are occupied.​

Skip to around 10:20 for a view of the offices.

WARNING: FANBOY RANT

The Trump years were fairly rough for me. In addition to losing loved ones to mental illness and suicide, and encountering up-close the extraordinary incompetence and corruption of mainstream medicine, I endured daily reminders of the extraordinary incompetence and corruption in the American political/economic system and the immense suffering that results. Day after day after day, new lows of human ignorance and depravity, while the unprecedented catastrophe of global warming bears down on the innocent. It was kinda discouraging.

But when I watch this video of Giga Berlin rising from mud, and remember that only a year ago a mere handful of machines were chipping away at vast forest on the site, I feel... less discouraged. Some might say Elon restored their faith in humanity, but that's not true of me. I don't have faith. But I have hope. Elon Musk and his companies remind me that amid the ocean of human incompetence and corruption, there are some leaders and followers of extraordinary competence and morality... and that sometimes human intelligence, courage and determination can win. Elon and his companies help me feel better about my species and its future. I really appreciate it.

 

[Norwalk79]

WARNING: FANBOY RANT

The Trump years were fairly rough for me. In addition to losing loved ones to mental illness and suicide, and encountering up-close the extraordinary incompetence and corruption of mainstream medicine, I endured daily reminders of the extraordinary incompetence and corruption in the American political/economic system and the immense suffering that results. Day after day after day, new lows of human ignorance and depravity, while the unprecedented catastrophe of global warming bears down on the innocent. It was kinda discouraging.

But when I watch this video of Giga Berlin rising from mud, and remember that only a year ago a mere handful of machines were chipping away at vast forest on the site, I feel... less discouraged. Some might say Elon restored their faith in humanity, but that's not true of me. I don't have faith. But I have hope. Elon Musk and his companies remind me that amid the ocean of human incompetence and corruption, there are some leaders and followers of extraordinary competence and morality... and that sometimes human intelligence, courage and determination can win. Elon and his companies help me feel better about my species and its future. I really appreciate it.

Very well said. Amen

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

TLDR

1. Tesla 's FSD chip focus mainly on NN matrix computation, and with enough memory bandwidth to fit large NNs.

2. Most of the components on the SOC is licensed, except the NN portion of the chip

3. Doesn't stop Nvidia from making the exact same chip as Tesla's. James didn't find anything on the FSD computer that's very complex. The NN engine in fact has been done by Nvidia and is in their computer, however they just don't focus mainly on NN therefore dedicating a small area of the die to it while giving it little memory bandwidth.

4. Nvidia is not focusing on NN because it's a huge gamble since no one truly knows what will enable L5 driving. Unless Nvidia can sell millions of said chip, they are going with the kitchen sink design so it can do something for everyone, vs going down one path which is Tesla's vision only NN path.

5. At the end it's a business road block, not a technical road block that prevents other from making Tesla's FSD computer

6. The fleet is what enables Tesla to go down this route, while other legacy autos wouldn't spend an extra nickel to "future proof" their cars or give away hardware to have them enabled one day. This is the chicken and the egg roadblock to NN based FSD from competitors.

7. Mobile Eye does not dedicate too much NN processing power on their chip as well..again not that they can't, they just don't think NN is the path to L5 FSD.


This was extremely informative. My conclusion is Tesla's FSD computer is as dedicated in believing NN being the answer to FSD as their stance on no lidar.

Yes: 2nd part of good two part video.
First part: also very good:

James does a nice, low-key, but thorough walk trough of basic machine learning. I find that James is really good at explaining things.
The layering of simple neurons firing or not, as input to simple, but a bit more complex neurons, firing (or not), all the way up to now being able to, with great certainty declaring 'cat or 'dog'.
How yet more complex sets of knowledge is used as input to form yet more complex output: "This is not a dessert" or "this is a landscape".

I found his brief historical recap of neural networks interesting. To paraphrase:
"
At first neural networks and back propagation didn't work. And people were really disappointed 'cause it ought to, in theory.
The compute were simple too slow. But that wasn't known at the time so people came up with various excuses.
Then later on (from ~2010 and forward) it was the other way around: How could it work so well for such complex processes? It was almost unbelievable how well it worked, which was hard to believe because the basic processes were so simple.
"

Combining these two things it just clicked how much my own understanding is layered: How not only complex perceptions but also concepts like "society" or "corporation" are layered/hierarchical understanding built on (the input) of other pieces of understanding. It also explains how understanding can take a really long time, years, decades, and then suddenly, it is there: The model is finally baked and outputs some newfound 'feature' hitherto unseen.

Because the understanding was really complex, it required input from other models almost as complex, thus in aggregate taking a huge amount of compute - or, more simply put, time.
So, like money, knowledge/understanding pays huge interest: You actually, almost physically build understanding on top of other understanding. Knowledge grows, not linearly but exponentially.

Building models of higher and higher complexity is very possible, by successful layering.
In fact, it is not clear that there is a limit to the complexity and broadness of scope of the models built.
I don't see any natural stopping point. It all comes down to the design of the nets, the vastness of the data, the efficiency of the training pipeline, the experience accrued.

What is our sense of now and self, if not just the biggest, most top level neural network, using many of the other also very complex sub-networks as input to seamlessly weave our existence into being?

So, machine learning works, because we work.
So, AGI is possible, because we are possible.
We are the androids.

 

[buttershrimp]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372951335008563203

You know Tesla has made it when shows are using autopilot as a plot device for serial killers.

Oh my god that is awesome!!

 

[MC3OZ]

SMR on what Tesla might do in India is interesting and his conclusion makes sense. I recently saw that the world's largest Solar farm is in India. They are already on the road to transitioning to solar in a big way. Tesla Energy will be the most significant reason for an India presence.

Naturally, the media knuckleheads think Tesla is a car company and make no mention of the possibility of Tesla's potential in India without it being cars.

I see Tesla starting with the manufacture of LFP 4680 cells in India as early as 2023.

If we assume there is a Roadrunner "A Team" that does these factory install the schedule is:-

1. 2020 Fremont
2. 2021 Austin
3. 2022 Berlin
4. 2023 India (probably overly optimistic, might do more in the US /EU first)

I have India as the 4th highest priority partially because I have LFP 4680 cells as very high priority.
But they may make 4680 LFP cells at a separate facility in Austin or the EU first.
I also don't know about raw materials for LFP 4680 cells in India.

Those 4680 LFP cells are going into Megapacks and Powerpacks initially and can definitely be exported.
Tesla can make a cheaper 4680 LFP backed version of the Powerwall perhaps with lower capacity, that could be made in India and exported.

The next step IMO, is Indian version of the Semi with LFP 4680 cells.
They can make the frame, the packs and perhaps some of the cab in India, initially importing motors and electrical components.

No one commented on the market for Trucks in India, using LFP means lower range and lesser cargo capacity.
There are a lot of trucks in India, some probably driving local routes.
They can import high-nickel 4680 cells for longer range trucking.

Give the Tesla India team some ability to design and optimize variants of the truck architecture.

The we come to a 25K Robo-taxi (without radar) this should have a 4680 LFP pack and castings.
Castings and stamped parts can initially be imported, (if necessary) the tasks required are:-

1. Body shop
2. Paint
3. GA

The next step is probably for Tesla India to start making motors.

While the Robo-taxi might have FSD hardware, it can operate as a regular Taxi with a driver, for as long as required.
Once cars with FSD hardware have been driving for several million miles on India roads, Tesla will have a better idea what is required to make FSD work in India.
By that time Tesla will have Dojo and perhaps specialized NN training for India.

 

[goinfraftw]

Super optimistic article.

The Not So Dull Future Of The Boring Company

The Boring Company is likely to prove a necessary part of the upcoming changes to transportation infrastructure.

www.hotcars.com

 

[WVCS]

I found this CNBC article indicative of sneaky, subtle bias (Or just incompetence?). Only bother following the link if necessary.

Article title:
“GM and Ford take cues from Tesla's success, but try to avoid Musk's mistakes”

Down in the article, after showing the interior of the competition, is a picture of the MS with this caption “A view of the dashboard in a new Tesla Model S car at a Tesla showroom on November 5, 2013 in Palo Alto, California.”

A “new” Tesla? Ironically, that 8 year old photo still looks better than the competition!

Can’t tell if these are isolated data points or start of a trend but combining this Lora article - particularly the carefully worded headline - with last week’s extremes-poll (must pick between “Elon is God and I love Tesla car” and “Elon is evil and I hate Tesla car”) opens up a new possibility.

Some sources of funding for the media campaign might have decided that the company and the car are unassailable and have abandoned the “the company is going bankrupt, the car doesn’t work” campaign. They have now switched to funding a campaign to separate the man from the product (“Tesla is surviving/thriving despite Elon”).

If the enemy can’t be taken on in a frontal war, an option is to weaken or corrupt the general. Keep chipping away at it and eventually put in a journeyman CEO (John Sculley would do fine, thank you - his strategy included investing in ODBC connectors as a way to win business customers!!) and a board to go with him/her. Then you get a company that is tractable and available for manipulation; not merely manipulation of the stock price etc. but manipulation of the company’s very identity and direction.

 

[Tim S]

Apparently they are practically giving away 2021 Toyota Mirai.

Select LA/SF Dealers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15k Fuel Card $23,100 after Tax Credits & Incentives (Select Locations)

Select Eligible Toyota Dealers [Dealer Locator] located in Los Angeles / San Francisco, California are offering to Qualifying Customers: 2021 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car + $15,000 in Compl ...

slickdeals.net

Saw this posted on a local FB group yesterday...

If you thought the charging infrastructure needed improvement, just consider the folks that bought/leased H2 cars. Just checked the station status this morning. 44 stations total in CA, 11 don't work. 2 have only 2-3 fillups left. I've checked it in the past and up to 50% weren't working or ran out of H2 and it's not like you can just plug into a 120v outlet in a pinch.

 

[StealthP3D]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372951335008563203

You know Tesla has made it when shows are using autopilot as a plot device for serial killers.

Rumor has it that Tesla paid cold, hard cash for that product placement.

How do I know?

Prove me wrong!

/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla hacker who offered $1M bribe to Giga Nevada employee pleads guilty | Teslarati.com

The Tesla hacker who attempted to infiltrate the company’s Gigafactory Nevada facility with malware, offering $1 million to an employee for help with the task, pleaded guilty to counts of “conspiracy to intentionally cause damage to a protected computer.”

Egor Igorevich Kriuchkov pleaded guilty, according to a U.S. Department of Justice complaint that was released yesterday. His sentence offered a maximum of five (5) years imprisonment, three (3) years of supervised release, a $250,000 fine or “twice the gross gain or gross loss resulting from the offense,” and a mandatory special assessment of $100, if he would have pleaded guilty, Engadget reported.