I see Tesla starting with the manufacture of LFP 4680 cells in India as early as 2023.
If we assume there is a Roadrunner "A Team" that does these factory install the schedule is:-
- 2020 Fremont
- 2021 Austin
- 2022 Berlin
- 2023 India (probably overly optimistic, might do more in the US /EU first)
I have India as the 4th highest priority partially because I have LFP 4680 cells as very high priority.
But they may make 4680 LFP cells at a separate facility in Austin or the EU first.
I also don't know about raw materials for LFP 4680 cells in India.
Those 4680 LFP cells are going into Megapacks and Powerpacks initially and can definitely be exported.
Tesla can make a cheaper 4680 LFP backed version of the Powerwall perhaps with lower capacity, that could be made in India and exported.
The next step IMO, is Indian version of the Semi with LFP 4680 cells.
They can make the frame, the packs and perhaps some of the cab in India, initially importing motors and electrical components.
No one commented on the market for Trucks in India, using LFP means lower range and lesser cargo capacity.
There are a lot of trucks in India, some probably driving local routes.
They can import high-nickel 4680 cells for longer range trucking.
Give the Tesla India team some ability to design and optimize variants of the truck architecture.
The we come to a 25K Robo-taxi (without radar) this should have a 4680 LFP pack and castings.
Castings and stamped parts can initially be imported, (if necessary) the tasks required are:-
- Body shop
- Paint
- GA
The next step is probably for Tesla India to start making motors.
While the Robo-taxi might have FSD hardware, it can operate as a regular Taxi with a driver, for as long as required.
Once cars with FSD hardware have been driving for several million miles on India roads, Tesla will have a better idea what is required to make FSD work in India.
By that time Tesla will have Dojo and perhaps specialized NN training for India.
