Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373145910549483522

So guess no 8.3 with FSD coming this month/weekend and they’re just going to V9 sometime in Q2 (Elon says April but yeah......)

He really should just stop giving out time estimates of FSD/software things. Doesn’t matter to me because I know how software works when it comes to polishing and bug fixing....but he just ends up disappointing people again and again

 

[Mo City]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373145910549483522

So guess no 8.3 with FSD coming this month/weekend and they’re just going to V9 sometime in Q2 (Elon says April but yeah......)

He really should just stop giving out time estimates of FSD/software things. Doesn’t matter to me because I know how software works when it comes to polishing and bug fixing....but he just ends up disappointing people again and again

Agreed Elon should stop giving FSD time estimates.

I'm good with this decision. Knowing v.9 is on the horizon basically negates anything before it. Also, two recent videos from beta testers with warnings and tips about weaknesses of FSD beta gave me concern about a broad release happening too early.

 

[SN_8]

Gordon Johnson on Monday: "The fact IS that even ARK Invest, the biggest bull on the street, thinks the stock could drop to -$2000. It's just a fact!!!"

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I'm so glad that Tesla employee turned him in instead of taking the money!

But with an bribe of $1M by a Russian, I don't think it takes an over-active imagination to surmise this guy was funded at the highest levels by the oligarchs in Russia (who are basically the most powerful people in government for all practical purposes). The entire country, and especially the billionaire oligarchs, are heavily dependent upon oil and gas extraction and sales to maintain the status quo.

The Tesla employee should get a special award even though he just did the right thing. If that software had been installed on Tesla's internal computers undetected, there's no telling what kind of havoc evil oil and gas interests could have wreaked.

Yeah - that employee deserves a promotion or something.
In my over-active imagination, the software was actually installed briefly, but in a closed sandbox/honeypot - just to learn more about it - and its nefarious creators.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I'm so glad that Tesla employee turned him in instead of taking the money!

But with an bribe of $1M by a Russian, I don't think it takes an over-active imagination to surmise this guy was funded at the highest levels by the oligarchs in Russia (who are basically the most powerful people in government for all practical purposes). The entire country, and especially the billionaire oligarchs, are heavily dependent upon oil and gas extraction and sales to maintain the status quo.

The Tesla employee should get a special award even though he just did the right thing. If that software had been installed on Tesla's internal computers undetected, there's no telling what kind of havoc evil oil and gas interests could have wreaked.

If you're going to surmise that, then I would think you would take the next leap of logic: this was an obvious decoy. The real malware was infiltrated by several other means, six of which failed and nine of which were successful to some degree. Even now they are worming their way through the Tesla infrastructure, infecting firmware releases and thereby all vehicles, and from the charge ports of the infected vehicles leaping to the superchargers. It's all going down!

The Russians are coming! (Emergency! Everybody to get from street!) /s

 

[heltok]

Anybody speaks chinese? Here is the Elon Musk talk, but it’s translated into Chinese

微博

随时随地发现新鲜事！微博带你欣赏世界上每一个精彩瞬间，了解每一个幕后故事。分享你想表达的，让全世界都能听到你的心声！

m.weibo.cn

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Really wish they would get someone in there to do a proper analysis on Tesla Energy. Tesla turning into the largest utility company in the world by 2030 seems just as important and valuable as the rest of the analysis and adds a tremendous value to the market cap of the company in 2025 and 2030

Agree.
But energy seems very depending on the steepness of the curve of the extreme ramp in battery production - both by Tesla in house, and also by orbiting partners. Not that the power electronics and casings and installation of industrial scale batteries is not well done - sure it is.
But metal boxes, power electronics and construction scales well using traditional methods : Input more money.

Now: Getting 1000 times more both well-made and cheap batteries - that is the hard thing to scale.

Still: The quickest way to do the steepest ramp is to throw both money and brainpower at it.
We have discussed many time in this forum that the gating criteria for doing for example optimized factories or FSD is likely mostly not money, but the right people, the right processes and leadership.

I would wager, that establishing and or nurturing new suppliers network is actually amendable to huge amounts of money.
Combining both money and new techniques by going varying degrees upstream in the mining and refining business (for good explanation on that see a couple of Jordan Giesige's videos centered around understanding the consequences of Battery Day)
A future example of supporting tech could be making Tesla heavy duty mining dump-trucks with human drivers in lead car (security, heavy loads, tradition) but with also with FSD flocking (follow me: next 1-10 trucks). These trucks would themselves be pretty cool. But having yet another product is not the point, the point is that a Tesla mining trucks would just accelerate battery ramp-up.

Changing/creating an entire ecosystem for supplier feeding into Tesla's insatiable battery factories will take a lot of money.

Where to easily get hold of obscene amounts of money?
Now, we are back to robotaxies, being the most lucrative opportunity in sight. If that fails/drags out, Tesla will still scale and, it will just be a lot slower.


TLDR
Tesla Energy will be very valuable - especially in 15-20 years, when doing a commercial scale robotaxi network will be a high-shool project, as James Douma recently quipped. But the ramp curve of Tesla Energy is almost solely depend on the ramp-curve of batteries.
And the extreme bull case of ramping batteries at ludicrous speed depends on robotaxi cash tsunami.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I think the nuance was that in case robotaxi doesn’t pan out, Tesla may go the ride hailing route as back up (bear case) option. I don’t think there is anything wrong with that.

Teslas have been bought by ride hailing fleet operators. All Tesla needs to do is add an app in its car and allow owners to use the feature in lieu of revenue share with Tesla. They can price comparatively with Uber or even provide better features as integrated experience/feature (think Apple).

Yeah, ARK has been talking up Tesla ride hailing for years. It would actually be very effective PR/marketing so it has merit. The detractors are right, in a skewed sense: Tesla is a bit of a cult. A lot of people know next to nothing, and a few can spend days and hours quoting Elon and obsessing about everything Tesla.
Ride-hailing would be a way to bring the Tesla message out.
But, then we get back to the old discussion about whether Tesla is production or demand constrained.

All things being equal, human-based ride-hailing is a lot of hassle for what is in the long term a dead end. Not a very Elon-esque thing to do.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I suspect they are sandbagging a more accurate forecast because nobody would believe it. Growth beyond a $4T market cap has never happened before (in modern times), let alone in only 4 years. Scaring clients with "insanity" ain't good for inflows, and ain't necessary to make the point that TSLA is a buy.

But the human ride-hailing stuff is pretty weird.

Edit: I agree human ride-hailing makes more sense as a backup option. I didn't see that stated in Tasha's blog.

Yeah - ARK is in the unique 'prophet' position, by making outrageous and bold claims at a time where that was rare as gold. And it worked out.

Perhaps ARK has decided that now is the time to reap the rewards, by nudging the market along with them, without scaring anybody.
Maybe they still believe in the ride-hailing thing. Or maybe they keep it because the don't like to admit that is was a bad idea in the first place.
Or maybe it is an distraction, hiding the fact that as time goes by, and FSD-videos from the wild keep popping up, the robo-taxi extreme bull case is slowly and gradually becoming more likely.

Not saying ARK is duplicitous.
But, it must be hard to do really good prognostication with integrity when you have a somewhat proven effect on moving the market and at the same time also stand to gain by not predicting with accuracy, but allowing for time to buy up the still cheap equity.
In that case, being conservative is an easy choice.
It may also be meta-ethical in the sense that she drags along parts of the market who might not by themselves buy or hold on to TSLA, thus doing them a solid.

 

[Dutchie]

These are some very very big numbers; even in the bear case and 2025 is not that far in the future. But you know, I take it even in the bear case! But still, these are huge numbers and we are talking four years in the future. Pfff

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

ARK is sandbagging AF

SpaceCash 2025 price target is $12K (impending-split-not-adjusted)

"They was hating on me then and they hating now" - 21 Savage
'Sneakin' ft Drake

I like your analysis prediction.
You should count backwards, wrap it in some assumptions and supporting calculations, throw some words and graphs at it, publish it, and watch the money roll in.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

It occurred to me that corporate hierarchies are basically neural nets. At the bottom you have folk building cars or curing cancer. At the top, this is converted to the CEO tweeting out a cat video or predicting profits will rise.

You don't need to imagine:
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model
Rounded down for dilution, my model says $100k/share which is conservative compared to ARK's $28k/share in 2025 figure. Similarly to ARK, my model does not include revenue from more than one part of the business - selling cars included...
I tried running Monte Carlo simulations but each time I ended up retiring in Monaco on account of all that wealth.

"I tried running Monte Carlo simulations but each time I ended up retiring in Monaco on account of all that wealth."
So funny! Best line so far this year.

 

[Mike Smith]

Elon himself said that Tesla would probably start a human driven ride hailing network prior to full autonomy. From the 2019 Q3 earnings call:

Question: "Will you release the Tesla ride-hailing network app before full autonomy?

Elon: "Well, I think it's -- probably will make sense to have like to enable car sharing in advance of the kind of sort of drive robotaxi fleet because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators. So it's probably something that we would enable before sort of robotaxi fleet is enabled."

Note: by 'car sharing' he means ride-hailing (sharing rides), as the questioner specified.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2019.

www.fool.com

 

[Mike Smith]

Musk says Tesla would be shut down if its cars spied in China, elsewhere

Tesla Inc chief executive Elon Musk said on Saturday his company would be shut down if its cars were used to spy, his first comments on news that China's military has banned Teslas from its facilities.

www.reuters.com

“There’s a very strong incentive for us to be very confidential with any information,” Musk told a prominent Chinese forum during a virtual discussion. “If Tesla used cars to spy in China or anywhere, we will get shut down.”

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon himself said that Tesla would probably start a human driven ride hailing network prior to full autonomy. From the 2019 Q3 earnings call:

Question: "Will you release the Tesla ride-hailing network app before full autonomy?

Elon: "Well, I think it's -- probably will make sense to have like to enable car sharing in advance of the kind of sort of drive robotaxi fleet because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators. So it's probably something that we would enable before sort of robotaxi fleet is enabled."

Note: by 'car sharing' he means ride-hailing (sharing rides), as the questioner specified.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2019.

www.fool.com

Even though he said it - I think his position is likely to change based on the performance of FSD. The longer he thinks it will take for FSD to become a real product, the more likely he would be to build a ride-hailing app.

 

[lklundin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372417059871629314

Bill repeating that Semi deliveries will happen in Q2.

Hopefully that announcement on Q1 earnings(or maybe a surprise note about Semi Q2 production/deliveries in the Q1 P/D report) will cause a significant spark to the stock. I get/know what's going on with the options and 10 yr note but doesn't change the fact that the stock action has been hella weak since that 20% day.

BTW Q2 is going to be an absolute monster quarter. Actual S/X refresh deliveries(with a near 2X revenue multiple on the previous S/X's because most of the deliveries will be Plaid at first), MIC Y close to fully ramped, expanded MIC 3 production, Semi production and deliveries. I'm not counting on it but if V9, subscription, and FSD beta goes wide release, it'll just be icing on the cake.

There is evidence of transports of refurbished/Plaid Model S leaving Fremont, e.g.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372627754521260034

I recall that 2019Q4 saw only a symbolic number of Model 3 deliveries (I believe 15 to employees) from Giga Shanghai - I think this limit was explained as being for accounting purposes.

Can we expect deliveries of refurbished/Plaid Model S during this quarter?
Are there reports of VIN assignments or other indicators that such deliveries are imminent?

 

[CorneliusXX]

It seems to me, a lot of the media experts start from the assumption that things can't change, and problems can't be overcome.

The alternative way of thinking is to identify opportunities, and then slowly work to have the right products available at the right price, at the right time.

India has to start with Solar and Batteries, but there are also opportunities for modest amounts of vehicle sales, slowly growing brand recognition and working on products better suited to the local market.

In truth India is very diverse, people have all sorts of different incomes and asset levels, different regions of the county can be very different in terms of the local income levels and infrastructure.

We are all aware of "time in the market" , in this case what is needed is "time in the country".

Solar and Batteries, especially batteries have the potential to be profitable, both in the local market and when exported. Any vehicle program can start out relatively modest and also have an export component.

Tesla India might be the reverse of Tesla US, Tesla Energy will be far bigger than Automotive for a long time,

But like Tesla Energy in the US, Automotive in India can gradually grow a presence,

Scaling storage is dependent on cell production v vehicle production - cells can earn higher margins when being sold in vehicles - while this is true it would be sub-optimal to rapidly expand stationary storage.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

[UK] I have to sell in taxable account before 2nd April & buy in tax-free on or after 6th April. I'm thinking of selling Monday 22nd or 29th. Hopefully shares around same price on 6th April (or lower), but I think that's unlikely with delivery numbers (assuming published by then). Not much I can do other than delay re-purchase for a dip, but I don't like to be out too long in case of sudden upward movements. Maybe buy back in on Friday 9th or 16th April

Commiserations - this can be painful! My wife and I once ended up with 15% fewer shares added to our ISAs than we sold in our respective share accounts due to the accumulated effects of changes in the share price and currency exchange fees. Given the SP increase since then it still turned out to be a good thing to do but it didn't feel too good at the time.

 

[Norwalk79]

I see Tesla starting with the manufacture of LFP 4680 cells in India as early as 2023.

If we assume there is a Roadrunner "A Team" that does these factory install the schedule is:-

1. 2020 Fremont
2. 2021 Austin
3. 2022 Berlin
4. 2023 India (probably overly optimistic, might do more in the US /EU first)

I have India as the 4th highest priority partially because I have LFP 4680 cells as very high priority.
But they may make 4680 LFP cells at a separate facility in Austin or the EU first.
I also don't know about raw materials for LFP 4680 cells in India.

Those 4680 LFP cells are going into Megapacks and Powerpacks initially and can definitely be exported.
Tesla can make a cheaper 4680 LFP backed version of the Powerwall perhaps with lower capacity, that could be made in India and exported.

The next step IMO, is Indian version of the Semi with LFP 4680 cells.
They can make the frame, the packs and perhaps some of the cab in India, initially importing motors and electrical components.

No one commented on the market for Trucks in India, using LFP means lower range and lesser cargo capacity.
There are a lot of trucks in India, some probably driving local routes.
They can import high-nickel 4680 cells for longer range trucking.

Give the Tesla India team some ability to design and optimize variants of the truck architecture.

The we come to a 25K Robo-taxi (without radar) this should have a 4680 LFP pack and castings.
Castings and stamped parts can initially be imported, (if necessary) the tasks required are:-

1. Body shop
2. Paint
3. GA

The next step is probably for Tesla India to start making motors.

While the Robo-taxi might have FSD hardware, it can operate as a regular Taxi with a driver, for as long as required.
Once cars with FSD hardware have been driving for several million miles on India roads, Tesla will have a better idea what is required to make FSD work in India.
By that time Tesla will have Dojo and perhaps specialized NN training for India.

3. There was news that Berlin will produce Model 2 in July 2021, NOT 2022. I will look for the link if requested.

 

[Norwalk79]

Another blatant Violent Crash/Autopilot news in Tesla smear campaign

This is the only one that shows a very large picture of a Tesla Model 3 hitting a wall with testing equipment attached right at the beginning of the article, instead of the common picture of the dented police car. The involved Tesla car was a Model Y, not Model 3 that makes its bad intention more obvious. The line “The EV maker’s controversially named driver assistance system has confused owners and frustrated industry analysts.” does not match with its title “Tesla on Autopilot…”. Tesla does not use the term Autopilot, its term is FSD.
The news derives from autonews.com that list the correct accident picture of the police car. As I read the common claim that “Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assist system was engaged when it struck the police car”. There is a POSSIBILITY that the 22yr old man engaged the FSD system AFTER the accident happened to blame the Autopilot, instead of his fault, because he was cited for Driving With License Suspended (DWLS), a careless act, disregard the law attitude. There is another possibility that he was paid by Russia to perform this act. Russia was reported to do a lot of 2016 election misinformation/fake news, fake propaganda… Read the next article about Russian man pleads guilty

Tesla on "Autopilot" Crashes Into Parked Michigan State Police Car

Tesla on Autopilot crashes into Mich. police car; NHTSA launches probe

Quote: “A Russian man has pleaded guilty in the U.S. to offering a Tesla employee $1 million to cripple the electric car company’s massive electric battery plant in Nevada with ransomware and steal company secrets for extortion, prosecutors and court records said.”

In the past, there was news about 7 Russians were convicted of spying and spreading misinformation/fake news, fake propaganda…

Russian man pleads guilty in Nevada to plot to extort Tesla