Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johnny Ma]

I'll take Musk in the disagreement.

Don't believe it's an actual disagreement. The phrase is 思想碰撞 which means "collision of thought." I interpret this as a marketing term to get clicks/eyeballs.

 

[SpaceCash]

TMC Crew - 2025 View attachment 646223

Let's go! I can get us a discount there ez, that's one of my haunts

 

[kbM3]

They specify ZERO CapEx in 2025, so are pricing the terminal value of the company (no future growth after 2025), priced at standard market multiples. Pretty weak-ass assumption, given the STATED Tesla growth roadmap (20m vehicles/yr by 2030).

ARK Invest is again trying to cram Tesla into their box (5-year horizon). That part is just bad accounting / valuation practice. But do they really think that TE will be worth nothing in 5 years? When TE deployments of megapack tripled in 2020, and bty costs are going down by 75% in that time frame.

Next: Tesla will NOT, EVER launch a human ride hailing service. Tesla owners who want to do that can drive for Uber or Lyft. Building that infrastruture (Call Centre, HR, Tax/Payroll, inevitable dismissals and lawsuits) is a waste of company time and effort, a distraction and and delay for what is guaranteed to be a dead end. Hey ARK: Tesla DON'T NEED THE STINKIN' $$$ or the B.S.

ARK is just plain wrong on human ride hailing, and won't give it up because it fills a perceived gap in their model so nicely (while ignoring that it doesn't fit ANYWHERE in Tesla's plans).

Finally, ARK's 5-yr Bull case gives Tesla a CAGR of 43.8% (if everthing goes well). You took a friggin' year to come up with 44%?! Try again next year...

Cheers!

Came here to make the exact same point.

In the year 2025, Tesla’s share price will be based on predictions of 2030 cash flow. Assuming that very rapid growth looks likely to continue, Robotaxi is solved and no short term prospects of Robotaxi market saturation, then 2030 valuations discounted back to 2025, would make a 2025 $10k / share price look like a joke.

@SteveG3 brings up some valid concerns, but I’m not that worried about 2030 ability for anyone to solve FSD. From watching James Douma’s @jimmy_d discussio on Dave Lee’s @DaveT YouTube channel, it seems like market saturation won’t start to occur until the 2030’s.

Cannot wait for the interview with Jimmy’s market cap estimates which are so large he’s embarrassed to share

 

[st_lopes]

Any opinions on why ARK found it the best timing to release their report on a Friday night after even AH had closed. Could they have tried harder to get as little impact as possible?

Kind of the point. They would open up to liability had they released at a time where it could be perceived they were trying to pump the stock.

 

[Drezil]

Don't believe it's an actual disagreement. The phrase is 思想碰撞 which means "collision of thought." I interpret this as a marketing term to get clicks/eyeballs.

You mean like: "Battle of the geniuses! Be sure to tune in!"-Style?

 

[lascavarian]

“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limited value to testing 8.x. Hoping to upload V9.0 & button next month.” - EM

IMO, this statement benefits from careful parsing.

Note use of “architectural” rather than ”SW”. Is there a distinction?

Use of “fundamental” related to vision.

I can over-reach at times but I am wondering if new S is going to have an improved FSD HW system?

Too far?

Could a demo version of 8.3 go to out to 3 & Y for now while new S gets 9?

 

[JRP3]

There is evidence of transports of refurbished/Plaid Model S leaving Fremont, e.g.

What an odd word to use; refurbished. I can envision a bunch of couches in this room needing refurbishing, but when I think of refurbishing a car — well, I don’t. It’s a word usually used when talking about homes or furniture. I guess for those planning on living in the Plaid.

I'd go with "refreshed".

 

[Knightshade]

Elon was confident that Tesla FSD will reach level 5 this year (2021), based on an interview on Dec 2020.

He's been confident of FSD related stuff that didn't happen when he said it would frequently - going back to at least 2017 now (arguably earlier).

As he told us in his 60 minutes interview- don't believe any date he gives you on a thing he's never actually done before, because how should he know how long it'll REALLY take him?


Thus I absolutely believe Austin and Berlin will be done on time, or early- He's built a car factory before.

L5 FSD THIS year though? Even Ark, a superbull, thinks it's only 50/50 to happen by 2025.

“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limited value to testing 8.x. Hoping to upload V9.0 & button next month.” - EM

IMO, this statement benefits from careful parsing.

Note use of “architectural” rather than ”SW”. Is there a distinction?

Use of “fundamental” related to vision.

I can over-reach at times but I am wondering if new S is going to have an improved FSD HW system?

Too far?

Could a demo version of 8.3 go to out to 3 & Y for now while new S gets 9?

We did see Cybertruck testing with additional sensors for a while (and I think an earlier semi proto had at least 1 extra camera in the side mirror or something).


And I personally don't believe the current sensor suite can do L5... (No I do NOT think they need lidar... I DO think they need more cameras, with better placement and overlap, though- and greater ability to handle bad weather (again redundancy can help here too))

That said- we've seen pics of refreshed S already and I don't recall anyone noticing any extra sensors on it.


I think in this case “architectural” means a build that both uses more 4D NNs, and also doesn't use radar (which remains a bizarre choice given unlike lidar, radar actually gives you data that vision can not give you period but they must have a reason)

 

[Krugerrand]

When I was given 3 disagrees, I found out my typo error :

Channeling my inner David Rose; Um. No. That’s not why you got the disagrees. But, ok.

 

[Krugerrand]

TMC Crew - 2025 View attachment 646223

Cause we bought The Bellagio? Or there for the Celine concert?

 

[lklundin]

No. It is annual,

“our forecast for Tesla’s unit sales is between 5 and 10 million vehicles in 2025.”

Starting from 1/2 million in 2020, to get to 5 million in 2025 (five years later) would require an annual growth of 58%, getting to 10M would take 82% annually. So this would be possible by sustaining the growth as it was until now. To do this more Gigafactories (or more likely extensions to those currently being constructed) are needed.

 

[SpaceCash]

My favorite thing about Elmer Fudds is that they literally NEVER use actual factual info and always make sugar up or amplify non-issues.
There are one or two REAL things I could whine about regarding Tesla, but those are never addressed. Because Fudds don't actually know ANYTHING about the company or the cars.

We're on to all your bs. We get it, you are paid by rich d-bags who want to prolong their control and economic clout. Any and all attempts at obfuscation, concern-trolling, etc are despicable and I judge you very severely for aligning yourself with that team.

 

[buttershrimp]

He's been confident of FSD related stuff that didn't happen when he said it would frequently - going back to at least 2017 now (arguably earlier).

As he told us in his 60 minutes interview- don't believe any date he gives you on a thing he's never actually done before, because how should he know how long it'll REALLY take him?


Thus I absolutely believe Austin and Berlin will be done on time, or early- He's built a car factory before.

L5 FSD THIS year though? Even Ark, a superbull, thinks it's only 50/50 to happen by 2025.








We did see Cybertruck testing with additional sensors for a while (and I think an earlier semi proto had at least 1 extra camera in the side mirror or something).


And I personally don't believe the current sensor suite can do L5... (No I do NOT think they need lidar... I DO think they need more cameras, with better placement and overlap, though- and greater ability to handle bad weather (again redundancy can help here too))

That said- we've seen pics of refreshed S already and I don't recall anyone noticing any extra sensors on it.


I think in this case “architectural” means a build that both uses more 4D NNs, and also doesn't use radar (which remains a bizarre choice given unlike lidar, radar actually gives you data that vision can not give you period but they must have a reason)

It seems to me, a lot of the media experts start from the assumption that things can't change, and problems can't be overcome.

The alternative way of thinking is to identify opportunities, and then slowly work to have the right products available at the right price, at the right time.

India has to start with Solar and Batteries, but there are also opportunities for modest amounts of vehicle sales, slowly growing brand recognition and working on products better suited to the local market.

In truth India is very diverse, people have all sorts of different incomes and asset levels, different regions of the county can be very different in terms of the local income levels and infrastructure.

We are all aware of "time in the market" , in this case what is needed is "time in the country".

Solar and Batteries, especially batteries have the potential to be profitable, both in the local market and when exported. Any vehicle program can start out relatively modest and also have an export component.

Tesla India might be the reverse of Tesla US, Tesla Energy will be far bigger than Automotive for a long time,

But like Tesla Energy in the US, Automotive in India can gradually grow a presence,

I would like to see Tesla design an India compact nimble truck/jeep. It would sell like hot naan cakes

 

[kanweg]

“Given significant architectural changes, including fundamental improvements to pure vision, there is limited value to testing 8.x. Hoping to upload V9.0 & button next month.” - EM

IMO, this statement benefits from careful parsing.

Note use of “architectural” rather than ”SW”. Is there a distinction?

Use of “fundamental” related to vision.

9 will use a Birdseye view, a view of all cameras together, with also a time component where the system still knows what it saw in the previous Birdseye view. This makes it much more aware and better at judging situations.


Not too much use of releasing 8.3, feedback for which isn’t helpful as it will not apply to the new Birdseye approach.

That Elon hopes it will be April is not encouraging, as it will mean that I have to hold my breath even longer before I can see movies of it in action.

 

[buttershrimp]

I'd go with "refreshed".

Freudian slip after not seeing yoke steering?

 

[elasalle]

Cause we bought The Bellagio? Or there for the Celine concert?

Cause we didn't waste all our monies buying an Island and a Mountain Meetup to celebrate 2025 richness per SP at that time

 

[Mo City]

I love ARK. Own lots of ARK.

I love Tesla. Own even more TSLA.

Someone please explain to me how 5M cars sold in 2025 is a ‘bear’ case. That is well above 50% YOY increase.

Not saying this isn’t happening, but ‘bear’ case?

Addressed this before:

The 50% annual growth number is an average over 10 years. The average will be far exceeded in early years of low volume and level off steeply towards the end.

Example scenario:
2020: 500K
2021: 1M (100% YOY)
2022: 1.8M (80%)
2023: 3M (67%)
2024: 5M (67%, assuming Model 2 deliveries commence in 2023 and ramp hard in 2024)
2025: 7.5M (50%)
2026: 10M (33%)
2027: 13M (30%)
2028: 16M (23%)
2029: 18M (13%)
2030: 20M (11%)
If anyone thinks Tesla will reach 20M in 2030 from only 13.3M the year prior, forget it.

In other words, being at 5M in 2025 does not necessarily mean Tesla is way ahead of Elon's schedule. IMO, it means they are behind.

Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin and Austin can easily exceed 5M in 2025 by themselves. No doubt in my mind Tesla breaks ground somewhere else in the world within 12 months. My wild guess is 6-7 more fully built out factories are needed for 20M. Three of these will be in China, U.S. and Europe. The real mystery is where the remaining 3-4 are located.

 

[woodisgood]

The timing of this "profile" this morning is pretty suspect, coinciding with ARK's new TSLA targets. It is obviously meant to discredit Cathie with the crowd that most closely aligns with her by subtly highlighting her political and religious views. But again, the timing is all about trying to discredit her TSLA thesis, which is a gargantuan task given how right she was the first time around.

What it means if Cathie Wood is the face of the market

Is the tech up cycle of the bull market over, and if so, does that mean Cathie Wood’s time is up? It’s a big question not just for Wood but for millions of us.

www.yahoo.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Haven't digested any of this, but it's further confirmation to me that Ark just got lucky. The idea of Automotive, even with FSD, being worth today's market cap is absurd.

If this is the apex of current analysis, I kinda hope my $1300 sold calls do get executed this summer so I can but back at $800 in 2024.

How is it so hard to understand that Energy is everything? It's been the rule of the entire human civilization literally our entire lives.

 

[elasalle]

What models will Tesla need to meet 5M cars per year?