Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Gains:
Access to PRIME land (planning, government owned, only available to open networks)
Access to funding
Full production / expansion for Superchargers factories China (10,000 a year) & USA production

Indeed, the U.S. Gov't is about to announce a $3T infrastruction plan on Wed, Mar 31, 2021. What if 1% of that funding is earmarked for EV charging infrastructure? What if it's a tendered contract to the 'best' bid? Including demonstrated ability to deliver the product at scale and in a timely manner?

This is potentially a huge deal for Tesla, with the potential to alter the future course of U.S. transportation (small minded, selfish considerations set aside).

Cheers!

 

[SN_8]

If we are turning into WallStreetBets I'm gonna be DFV.

So you're going to explain to us why this washed up retailer Tesla is a prime target for a short squeeze?

I hate to break it to you, but we're all already leveraged out the wazoo on DOTM calls.

 

[MC3OZ]

TBH I cant see tesla opening up the network. There is little to gain and a lot to lose.

Gains:
Better awareness of how reliable and fast they are to other EV owners.
Some revenue.

Losses:
Tesla owners no longer have the cachet of a network 'just for us'.
Possible outrage and having to queue for a spot behind a non tesla to use 'your' charger.
Disincentives build-out of more EV chargers by other companies (hurts the mission).
Little control over how much pressure this puts on the network, capacity wise. No longer linked to tesla sales.
Disincentive to buyers. Why buy a tesla 'for the Suc network' when you can now use it anyway?

I think doing so would be a net negative and a distraction. Its not vaguely a priority. Priorities should be:

1. Build more model Ys
2. Get GF texas built
3. Get GF Berlin built
4. Start making semis.
5. Ship the flipping roadster because its getting embarrassing how much this is vaporware now.

Other EVs are not selling in large volumes outside of Europe and China.
We don't know what percentage of the other EV drivers will take up the option or Supercharge regularly.
Given a relatively rapid ramp up on Model Y in Berlin and Austin, the coming Cybertruck and Semi, Tesla needs to expand Supercharging/ Megacharging anyway.
It should be fine if Tesla quickly adds capacity in busier locations.
There a plenty of quieter locations where a few more customers might be a good thing.

 

[Mike Smith]

Indeed, the U.S. Gov't is about to announce a $3T infrastruction plan on Wed, Mar 31, 2021. What if 1% of that funding is earmarked for EV charging infrastructure? What if it's a tendered contract to the 'best' bid? Including demonstrated ability to deliver the product at scale and in a timely manner?

This is potentially a huge deal for Tesla, with the potential to alter the future course of U.S. transportation (small minded, selfish considerations set aside).

Cheers!

This is immediately what I thought when I saw the rumor that Tesla will open up the Supercharger Network to all EV drivers - universal access would be a requirement for winning a massive government contract/grant to build out EV charging stations.

 

[mongo]

Regarding the NLRB/ Elon Tweet issue, from the original administrative law judge ruling (emphasis mine):

Here, Musk’s tweet was sent out to 22,700,000 followers on Twitter, some of whom are employees of Tesla. Musk’s tweet can only be read by a reasonable employee to indicate that if the employees vote to unionize that they would give up stock options. Musk threatened to take away a benefit enjoyed by the employees consequently for voting to unionize. The Board has held that statements reflecting the possible loss of existing benefits through good faith bargaining does not constitute an unlawful threat of the loss of existing benefits. Wild Oats Markets, Inc., 344 NLRB 717, 717–718 (2005) (no threat where employer communicated to employees in a flyer that employees could lose benefits during collective bargaining). In contrast, Musk’s statement cannot be read as an outcome that could occur due to goodfaith collective bargaining but instead made this statement as a threat of unilateral discontinuation of existing benefits if the employees unionized. Medical Center of Ocean County, 315 NLRB 1150, 1154 (1994) (threat where statement to employees that “[y]ou could lose your benefits” was susceptible to interpretation that employer intended to discontinue existing benefit prior to bargaining). Musk did not reference collective bargaining or express that the loss of stock options could be a result of negotiations. Musk presented no objective facts to support his statement that employees would lose their stock options. In Dyncorp, 343 NLRB 1197, 1198–1199 (2004), the Board found that Respondent unlawfully threatened employees with the loss of employer stock contribution monies if the employees chose union representation. Musk’s statement indicates that employees would lose stock options if they voted to unionize. Thus, his statement was not a prediction carefully phrased based on objective fact to convey Respondent’s belief as to probable consequences beyond its control, and I find his statement violates Section 8(a)(1). Consequently, Musk’s tweet lost the protection of Section 8(c) because Musk implied that Tesla would act on its own initiative to remove stock options if the employees chose to unionize.

Seems like this is the crux of the schism between the NLRB and our general opinion. Especially in light of his later Tweeta regarding the percentage of UAW shops with stock options, along with the comment on lower accident rate and healthcare benefits (and general treatment of NUMMI).

The board did remove the requirement for Musk to publicly read a notice :

The Respondent excepts to the judge’s recommended remedy requiring a public reading of the notice by Musk or by a Board agent in Musk’s presence. The Board will order a notice-reading remedy “where the violations are so numerous and serious that the reading aloud of a notice is considered necessary to enable employees to exercise their Section 7 rights in an atmosphere free of coercion, or where the violations in a case are egregious.” Postal Service, 339 NLRB 1162, 1163 (2003). Here, a notice-reading remedy is neither necessary nor appropriate to remedy the violations in this case because the Board’s traditional remedies will suffice to ameliorate the chilling effect of the Respondent’s unlawful conduct. See, e.g., Bodega Latina Corp. d/b/a El Super, 367 NLRB No. 34, slip op. at 1 (2018). We accordingly amend the judge’s remedy to remove the notice-reading requirement.

Full case with filings located here: TESLA, INC. | National Labor Relations Board

Stats on appealed decisions should the case continue onto Circuit and Supreme Courts: Appellate Court Decisions (10 Years) | National Labor Relations Board

 

[WarpedOne]

Indeed, the U.S. Gov't is about to announce a $3T infrastruction plan on Wed, Mar 31, 2021. What if 1% of that funding is earmarked for EV charging infrastructure?

1% is just 30B ... ehm ... uh ... oh ...

 

[Mike Smith]

I think everyone may have misunderstood when Elon said further testing of V.8 FSD wouldn't be useful. Maybe he meant that they've already learned all they need to know, so there's no point adding more risky testing, and everything will be pretty much solved for V.9 aside from extreme edge cases. This would explain his tweet about Tesla probably becoming the most valuable company in the next few months - the moment they prove they've achieved consistent competent FSD TSLA is going to explode.

 

[HG Wells]

My only worry is if the new/expanded $7000 EV tax incentive causes a delay in Tesla car purchases.
IE I can save 7K if I wait on taking delivery by 3 months.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Volkswagen to claim damages from former CEO, Audi boss 7:18am EDT

"Volkswagen will claim damages from former Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn and former Audi boss Rupert Stadler, it said on Friday, as the carmaker tries to draw a line under the diesel cheating scandal."​

 

[Unpilot]

TSLA is going to explode.

Now you've done it. TSLAQ will run with one word...guess which one?

 

[Singuy]

My only worry is if the new/expanded $7000 EV tax incentive causes a delay in Tesla car purchases.
IE I can save 7K if I wait on taking delivery by 3 months.

I thinks if it passes then it's for the tax year so it doesn't matter when you buy it this year.

 

[Johan]

Elon deleted this tweet:

View attachment 648088

:O :O

Wawawiwa! Elon can be hyperbolic at times yes, but he is also extremely straight forward and candid. Often too candid when it comes to the current atnd possible future states of a publically traded company, which of course has gotten him in a lot of trouble before (and this tweet may again bring on some troubles). I think it is very unlikely that this has to do with anything other than FSD - we know the roadmap of most other things such as factory build ut, ramping of production, Cybetruck, new Roadster etc.

Also, the @Whole Mars Catalog tweet that he replies to specifically mentions how bullish he/they are on FSD.

So to me all the tea leafs seem to read that before summer Tesla will roll out FSD and it will be better than anyone (almost anyone) would think today.

 

[Singuy]

Wawawiwa! Elon can be hyperbolic at times yes, but he is also extremely straight forward and candid. Often too candid when it comes to the current atnd possible future states of a publically traded company, which of course has gotten him in a lot of trouble before (and this tweet may again bring on some troubles). I think it is very unlikely that this has to do with anything other than FSD - we know the roadmap of most other things such as factory build ut, ramping of production, Cybetruck, new Roadster etc.

Also, the @Whole Mars Catalog tweet that he replies to specifically mentions how bullish he/they are on FSD.

So to me all the tea leafs seem to read that before summer Tesla will roll out FSD and it will be better than anyone (almost anyone) would think today.

Don't know what changed. He mentioned the stock price is high while also reiterated his confidence in solving FSD in 2021 during the same interview when he was receiving his award in Germany.

He also said autonomy will justify current stock valuation on the earnings call. Now he is saying stock can triple in a few months?

 

[ninpb]

Indeed, the U.S. Gov't is about to announce a $3T infrastruction plan on Wed, Mar 31, 2021. What if 1% of that funding is earmarked for EV charging infrastructure? What if it's a tendered contract to the 'best' bid? Including demonstrated ability to deliver the product at scale and in a timely manner?

This is potentially a huge deal for Tesla, with the potential to alter the future course of U.S. transportation (small minded, selfish considerations set aside).

Cheers!

What if Tesla were to win this ev charging infrastructure contract by just saying it will provide a network that 80% of EVs in the US can use?

 

[Artful Dodger]

What if Tesla were to win this ev charging infrastructure contract by just saying it will provide a network that 80% of EVs in the US can use?

View attachment 648106

Tesla's current Supercharger network is too small by a factor of greater than 1,000x.

Nothing that some well placed Federal funds can't solve. And I hope any such contract includes megapacks and solar/wind generation.

This is a jobs bonanza.

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Elon deleted this tweet:

View attachment 648088

:O :O

I could see the SEC making a fuss about that one

 

[Prunesquallor]

Indeed, the U.S. Gov't is about to announce a $3T infrastruction plan on Wed, Mar 31, 2021. What if 1% of that funding is earmarked for EV charging infrastructure? What if it's a tendered contract to the 'best' bid? Including demonstrated ability to deliver the product at scale and in a timely manner?

This is potentially a huge deal for Tesla, with the potential to alter the future course of U.S. transportation (small minded, selfish considerations set aside).

Cheers!

Yes, it could guarantee Tesla present and future market dominance for the US charging infrastructure. This may become more a part of the energy business than transportation - integrating the Super/Megachargers along with the ancillary solar and batteries into the grid via Autobidder.

 

[Krugerrand]

Regarding the NLRB/ Elon Tweet issue, from the original administrative law judge ruling (emphasis mine):

Seems like this is the crux of the schism between the NLRB and our general opinion. Especially in light of his later Tweeta regarding the percentage of UAW shops with stock options, along with the comment on lower accident rate and healthcare benefits (and general treatment of NUMMI).

The board did remove the requirement for Musk to publicly read a notice :

Full case with filings located here: TESLA, INC. | National Labor Relations Board

Stats on appealed decisions should the case continue onto Circuit and Supreme Courts: Appellate Court Decisions (10 Years) | National Labor Relations Board

They’re almost as good at extracting speculative interpretation out of a handful of words that meant nothing of the kind as we are.

 

[elasalle]

TBH I cant see tesla opening up the network. There is little to gain and a lot to lose.

Gains:
Better awareness of how reliable and fast they are to other EV owners.
Some revenue.

Losses:
Tesla owners no longer have the cachet of a network 'just for us'.
Possible outrage and having to queue for a spot behind a non tesla to use 'your' charger.
Disincentives build-out of more EV chargers by other companies (hurts the mission).
Little control over how much pressure this puts on the network, capacity wise. No longer linked to tesla sales.
Disincentive to buyers. Why buy a tesla 'for the Suc network' when you can now use it anyway?

I think doing so would be a net negative and a distraction. Its not vaguely a priority. Priorities should be:

1. Build more model Ys
2. Get GF texas built
3. Get GF Berlin built
4. Start making semis.
5. Ship the flipping roadster because its getting embarrassing how much this is vaporware now.

1K supercharger that will grow to 2K with your own money in 5 years
or
Grow to 5K chargers in 3 years with govt funds?

(numbers just examples)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I could see the SEC making a fuss about that one

Why? Market's not open, and he said nothing about the SP. Most likely he meant the Tesla / SpaceX package will extend the company so it's the biggest on + off world....

P.S. Relax: it's not 2019 anymore. It'll be ok.