Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Should - Master of Coin take some chips off the table? ( I would, but Tesla has said they will not be converting BTC to cash)

That's not actually what Elon tweeted. He said that when somebody buys a Tesla product with bitcoin, that payment would not be converted into fiat currency.

That doesn't mean that Tesla won't ever buy and sell bitcoin, it's just a separate decision from a product payment. I don't think Tesla plans to hoard bitcoin like digital gold, I think they plan to use it as currency (but with a different dilution / inflation risk profile).

Cheers!

 

[JRP3]

I’ll put on my smiley face when it breaches $1200 with authority.

 

[Christine69420]

SMR did open my eyes today with his video about Tesla's Energy Business. Really recommended!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Probably wishful thinking playing a part here, but this feel like the beginning of a 40+% event (or 10% in). The stock was pushed down for a solid 4-6 weeks until some positive news could come out. When the positive news came out, manipulation took hold for the market to reposition. Now it feels like they are taking off the cap for a few weeks.

Looking at last July, the pump after deliveries and into earnings pumped up ~60% prior to falling to about 280 (~40% from June) mid August. Then the stock split announcement where it ran ~75% before a quick slide and recovery to a (40%) level through the fall until the SP 500 announcement to peak at 900 (over 100%) before the recent fall back to mid 600s (again~40%). If a 60% pop happens again, over 1000 before settling in the low 900s with the 40%. This feels like a similar breakout moment where it can run for a while and then settle... especially if earnings surprise with high margins from Giga-Shanghai .

I'm of similar thinking. I was sure of the artificial pushdown prior to P&D report, it just made too much sense. Big banks are moving to the "reopening play", buying value stocks, oil stocks, and all the same old nonsense. The low volume, zero news environment is perfect for MM's to push TSLA down and expire a bunch of $600/$700/$800/$900 calls. But they got greedy and pushed it too low on naked shorting. All this was going to unwind after the earnings call regardless, but now a blowout P&D report has so many positive implications it's magnifying the rebound 3x.

These last two days could very well just be MM's unwinding the naked shorting and the real buying has yet to come. Volume today was barely above average.

And who's gonna sell now? Every long with a stop-loss has been triggered and every true long sees $750 as low. If we see any institutional buying on the earnings report it's gonna shoot us to the moon. FOMO may do it before the report even hits.

Will we back off 10-20% after earnings? I've officially voted no for various reason, but we'll see. Depends how high it shoots. To me, it's gonna be hard to find a lot of selling volume below $1000 if the 1Q report/guidance is good.

 

[wipster]

Other tech companies are in the CBD, TeraAustin is further East close to cheaper housing for factory workers and the airport.

Cheaper housing now perhaps... once some of the Californians start moving down to TeraTexas, housing prices are going to explode. Might be a good investment now, but you better hurry.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Now that's the Team Tesla we know and love. Playing in front of a packed house, they jumped out to an early lead that continued to grow until the final whistle. A very strong outing that the loyal season ticket holders have come to expect. Back to back blow out wins is a great way to start the week. With today's win:
• back over .500 winning percentage for season
• back to a YTD gain
• best 10 game stretch since Jan 26th
• third highest margin of victory all season
• highest score since Feb 19

Today
Score: 762.32
Margin of W/L: 60.34
Attendance: 44,432,028

Season
Record: 35-34
Total margin of wins: 864.85
Total margin of losses: -808.20
YTD gain/loss: 56.65 8.03%
Avg margin of victory: 24.71
Avg margin of defeat: -23.77
Best Win: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst Loss: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 7-3
Streak: W2
Avg Attendance: 38,296,791
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 31,728,594

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm of similar thinking. I was sure of the artificial pushdown prior to P&D report, it just made too much sense. Big banks are moving to the "reopening play", buying value stocks, oil stocks, and all the same old nonsense. The low volume, zero news environment is perfect for MM's to push TSLA down and expire a bunch of $600/$700/$800/$900 calls. But they got greedy and pushed it too low on naked shorting. All this was going to unwind after the earnings call regardless, but now a blowout P&D report has so many positive implications it's magnifying the rebound 3x.

These last two days could very well just be MM's unwinding the naked shorting and the real buying has yet to come. Volume today was barely above average.

And who's gonna sell now? Every long with a stop-loss has been triggered and every true long sees $750 as low. If we see any institutional buying on the earnings report it's gonna shoot us to the moon. FOMO may do it before the report even hits.

Will we back off 10-20% after earnings? I've officially voted no for various reason, but we'll see. Depends how high it shoots. To me, it's gonna be hard to find a lot of selling volume below $1000 if the 1Q report/guidance is good.

I'm of the belief that what Wall St has really been focused on is getting in front of the incoming renewable energy secular trend that's essentially going to begin when Biden signs that infrastructure bill and last for years. They know this is their last chance to not just buy TSLA at this valuation, but other renewable energy companies as well. They've thrown out all the stops in the past 2-3 months to weed out as many shares as they can across the entire sector

 

[Nocturnal]

I have a lot of covered calls for Friday at 800 strike. Watching them closely now. We popped through the upper BB pretty good. It usually means we come back down a little or slow the climb. If it's ok with everyone, I want to see 800+ NEXT week....

Buy my 4/16 $860 from me and you have a deal.

Cheaper housing now perhaps... once some of the Californians start moving down to TeraTexas, housing prices are going to explode. Might be a good investment now, but you better hurry.

I've been seriously looking there for that exact reason.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm of the belief that what Wall St has really been focused on is getting in front of the incoming renewable energy secular trend that's essentially going to begin when Biden signs that infrastructure bill and last for years. They know this is their last chance to not just buy TSLA at this valuation, but other renewable energy companies as well. They've thrown out all the stops in the past 2-3 months to weed out as many shares as they can across the entire sector

I honestly don't think, as a group, they're smart enough to do that. Certainly some are taking this opportunity to accumulate, but the majority are probably thinking about Chevron dividends these stupid retail investors don't appreciate.

 

[insaneoctane]

Have we figured out how the massive BTC appreciation will be reported for the quarter? It feels like it might be another FUD/Gordo lever....”Tesla’s knock out numbers are only because of climate credits and lucky fortune at the BTC casino“

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Have we figured out how the massive BTC appreciation will be reported for the quarter? It feels like it might be another FUD/Gordo lever....”Tesla’s knock out numbers are only because of climate credits and lucky fortune at the BTC casino“

From what I understand, unless they sell some, there's nothing to report

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Have we figured out how the massive BTC appreciation will be reported for the quarter? It feels like it might be another FUD/Gordo lever....”Tesla’s knock out numbers are only because of climate credits and lucky fortune at the BTC casino“

As long as Tesla didn't sell any BTC, it just shows up on their cash balance, not in earnings/profits

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, they invest about 0.006% of the funds they control into sustainable net-zero energy future.
While the rest remains mostly in fossil-burning as their name suggest: Black Rock == Coal.
Excuse me if I am not impressed at all.

You missed the "see change" on Blackrock's climate change:

BlackRock's climate epiphany

In a move that will reverberate through global capital markets, the world's largest fund manager plans to dump $521 million in thermal coal shares – and that is just the beginning.

www.afr.com

Cheers!

 

[henchman24]

I'm of similar thinking. I was sure of the artificial pushdown prior to P&D report, it just made too much sense. Big banks are moving to the "reopening play", buying value stocks, oil stocks, and all the same old nonsense. The low volume, zero news environment is perfect for MM's to push TSLA down and expire a bunch of $600/$700/$800/$900 calls. But they got greedy and pushed it too low on naked shorting. All this was going to unwind after the earnings call regardless, but now a blowout P&D report has so many positive implications it's magnifying the rebound 3x.

These last two days could very well just be MM's unwinding the naked shorting and the real buying has yet to come. Volume today was barely above average.

And who's gonna sell now? Every long with a stop-loss has been triggered and every true long sees $750 as low. If we see any institutional buying on the earnings report it's gonna shoot us to the moon. FOMO may do it before the report even hits.

Will we back off 10-20% after earnings? I've officially voted no for various reason, but we'll see. Depends how high it shoots. To me, it's gonna be hard to find a lot of selling volume below $1000 if the 1Q report/guidance is good.

Earnings could be really interesting... over the past year or so, it has typically been a sell the news event. There are a few reasons that trend cease on the call. Guidance on 1+m for 2021, EPS surprise (especially if >$1), announcing FSD subscription, Berlin/Austin opening within Q2... I'm sure plenty of others that could hit too. Unless there is a huge run, I doubt I'll even sell my 4/30 calls running into earnings. Too much of a chance for that trend to change.

 

[CorneliusXX]

These kinds of reports are misleading. Obviously, Tesla loads Europe deliveries primarily toward the back month of the quarter. So months 1 and 2 are much lower than other cars typically, and month 3 is much better. For Tesmanian to imply that Model 3 is the "best selling car in March" is akin to Gordy saying that Tesla's European sales are tanking because there are almost no sales in January.

Completely agree regarding the "new record" based on a minuscule subset of geography over a random time period. It's just noise.

One of the cricket commentators over here was sick of the same thing happening with sports records and had a nice little limerick to cover it off.

There once was a man named Grover,
Who hit twenty-three runs in an over,
It was the most number run,
By a clergyman's son,
On a windy afternoon in Dover.

 

[printf42]

There once was a man named Grover,
Who hit twenty-three runs in an over,
It was the most number run,
By a clergyman's son,
On a windy afternoon in Dover.

I will give you a pass to count this as sea shanty not poetry.
But only this time, no more!!

/s

 

[CorneliusXX]

The workforce shortages were partially caused by the "Tesla Effect" of other companies deciding to set up in the area of GigaNevada.

That is already happening in Austin, but Austin will not have workforce issues.
Other tech companies are in the CBD, TeraAustin is further East close to cheaper housing for factory workers and the airport.

Austin is no comparison to Sparks regarding employment options. But if Tesla needs 10k workers (as Elon mentioned on a recent tweet) for the current phase of Austin construction I wonder if by the time he has starlink, neuralink, boring co, and a couple more phases of Giga done whether Austin will see the same labour shortages.

If I remember my Uni textbooks correctly, secondary employment effects from factory openings is ~5x the number of direct hires - summing that up could lead to a couple of hundred thousand directly or indirectly employed by Musk industries. In a city of ~2m (Greater Austin) it would still tighten labour supply quite a bit.

It points to a gigantic boom in Austin over the next decade.

 

[pitabun]

Have we figured out how the massive BTC appreciation will be reported for the quarter? It feels like it might be another FUD/Gordo lever....”Tesla’s knock out numbers are only because of climate credits and lucky fortune at the BTC casino“

I wouldn't worry about Gordo, he's 5 FUD steps ahead of you there.

 

[Singuy]

Just a reminder to anyone thinking of playing the after earnings drop strategy..........Tesla decided to hold earnings on a Monday, which they've never done before and while not as short of turnaround as they did for Q3 2019 earnings(only 2 weeks from P/D to earnings), this is still quicker than they usually do. No company would make their earnings date for a Monday if they thought the numbers would disappoint. It's a bullish signal that they're confident in what they're going to report and/or talk about on the earnings call.

Not saying it's a guaranteed blowout earnings that will make the stock skyrocket higher. But this doesn't exactly feel like the usual earnings set up.

And with that being said, 4 trading days is a long time for MM to walk it down to where it needs to be. So the conclusion is to buy puts. Always always buy puts. MM is your friend.

 

[kbeckley]

Let’s be honest. It’s because Everyday Astronaut has a huge following on Twitter. A regular Joe who has service issues wouldn’t get a response like this....

Agree, he got hit while in Boca Chica filming Spacex and it took 79 days to repair his car...which needed further repair.

Sadly for me my 2012 Model S Sig A-type pack died today (240,000km). It was the BMS that went - the batteries themselves are still great. $19,000CAD to replace it. After costing me very little this car has gotten very expensive in its 9th year (suspension, and charge controller are new and now pack is dead). Probably will sell a few shares to keep on the road. New Model S is supposed to come in June. This car will go to family. I must say I did not think I would get 9 years out of it when I bought it. It is one of the first 2500 Model S Tesla ever made.