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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So I'm getting a lot of disagrees on this one. People saying I'm a newbie investor, or that doing something like this will give up future gains yada yada.

Look dudes, I ain't no newb at this investing thing. I've been here in Silicon Valley a long time. I've seen local companies' stocks go through multiple cycles. From 2016 all the way through mid 2020 I was one of those saying stay in, pushing back against the bears. But this time is different. Obviously, nobody can predict the market. Yeah, it's possible that stocks skyrocket the day after you sell. But my experience tells me right now we're gonna be in a bit of a flat spot for a while. I'm not being naive suggesting now might be (no guarantees) a good time to cash out some (not all of course) gains. Get your kitchen redone. Buy that shiny new car (electric please) you've been wanting. Take a vacation (after your shots of course).

I'm far from alone among the old dogs of Silicon Valley saying such things. Ya wanna know who else is thinking this? Elon Musk, who recently tweeted that he thinks the market cap to GDP ratio of the entire stock market is too high.

You are quite entitled to your opinion, after all there are two sides to every trade. So follow your conviction and make the sale. However I would suggest that there is an inherently high risk in this trade a couple of days before Q1 earnings. Also this is maybe something that you should have done when the price was in the high 800's, as I did. Either way good luck!
 
How does that avoid capital gains?
If it's a rental, and one qualifies as a real estate professional to take advantage of depreciation expense, then even the cash flow could be tax free. Upon sale, there's a concept called 1031 exchange where you buy a similar like in kind property of value (or properties that equal the value) and avoid capital gains taxes. Regardless if this bill passes or not, I'm sure there will be plenty of loopholes the K Street folks in good ole' DC will put into the bill to help the millionaires and billionaires avoid paying too much taxes!
 
I hear Consumer Reports have produced an article on the safety of guns. During his research, their reporter discovered that if, instead of pointing the gun away from yourself (recommended) it is pointed towards yourself, you die. The report was published posthumously.
They also discovered that handguns are especially dangerous, since other long guns have a very long barrel that makes it difficult to reach the trigger if a user put the muzzle in his/her mouth.
Hence CR is urging all handguns to have at least 16 inch barrel length.
 
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How does that avoid capital gains?
Does not... until it does.

First off real estate, even cash flow profitable real estate, almost always loses money on paper.

And when you sell, even with huge capital gains on tax depreciated properties, you can 1031B it, buy even more property and PAY NO TAX at all.

This is for investment properties of course.

What you do not get in real estate: overnight 100% gains.

So works great for people already rich to continue to grind huge amounts of money every year. But hard to become a billionaire without starting with a good amount of cash (millions) and making good investments for 30 years.
 
Regarding the proposed increase in capital gains....Lots of claims like "where else are you going to put your money?" are offered, yet, obviously there are other choices. Real estate is a valid response. Increasing the capital gains tax absolutely changes that calculus. If one with equal means, access and knowledge were to compare yields in the general market vs real estate, the comparison before and after this hike would be very different. This means significant wealth might very well move to RE as it becomes an even more attractive choice. There were already tax advantages to RE before this rate hike. How this impacts the market is beyond my expertise, but I would bet it will not boost the market or tolerated ratios. Disclaimer: I personally know very little about investing in real estate, but I will likely be learning more in the years ahead so that I can intelligently trade my investment choices.
I'm not a US citizen, so not very clued-up on the tax rules, but at a basic level, capital-gains, is capital-gains, no?

So let's imagine you have 1000x $TSLA in your portfolio today, but you're worried about this new tax, so you sell it all and buy a property somewhere

First observation is that you'll pay tax on selling those shares. Second observation is that if $TSLA doubled a year later, you'd held then sold, or sold for the "real-estate", it doubled then you sold, it's the same gains = same tax, except you're worse off, because you sold the $TSLA to buy the house, shed, mansion (state dependent)

But more likely, is that $TSLA, or some other high-growth stock might 3x over the next year. Yes, you'll pay more tax, but you'll be paying more tax because you made more capital gains (if, and on IF, you sell > $1M), but even with the extra tax paid, you'll have more money

Am I missing something here?
 
You are quite entitled to your opinion, after all there are two sides to every trade. So follow your conviction and make the sale. However I would suggest that there is an inherently high risk in this trade a couple of days before Q1 earnings. Also this is maybe something that you should have done when the price was in the high 800's, as I did. Either way good luck!
Dude, I already did it, when the price was in the high 800s!
 
Civilisation is expensive and worth every penny. How much of your hard-earned gains would you have if you lived in a society with no infrastructure, security, education, or healthcare? This ultra-individualism, the myth of the self-made man, is the real problematic thinking here.
That is as concise and yet as anodyne of an example I’ve seen of why the lack of a middle ground is the real problem posed to civilization by the rise of internet communications.
 
TSLA today - not the action I was hoping for. If earnings were coming out on Monday BEFORE market open, I think we would have seen a larger rise. It looks like Monday will be FOMO day if we have one. Premiums for options next Friday are high, so it is great if you are willing to take on the risk of selling those options today going into Monday earnings....
 
I agree with CR's outrage about this. Tesla should do much better.

The interior camera should detect when the driver slits his wrists, drinks bleach, or crawls out a window at high speed. Given Tesla's expertise in robotics, a robotic arm should reach out from the dashboard and bitchslap the driver's face when such behavior is detected. This should not be a problem technically, since neural nets can distinguish faces from other areas, such as buttocks... although when the driver attempts to exit a window, the car should trap him by raising the glass and apply multiple slaps to the accessible area. Then the car should contact law enforcement, and decelerate over the bumpiest part of the road shoulder to enhance the human behavior modification.

You laugh? All this is technically possible. Tesla could offer it as an option: the Suicidal Drunken Imbecile Package ($20k). Then CR will have to complain that the slaps are too stern, or not stern enough, or totally ineffective if the driver likes to be slapped.
My kids love the idea too so they drew up what this could look like but the slapper is on the outside of the car. It could work. Can somebody send it to the patent office?
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TSLA today - not the action I was hoping for. If earnings were coming out on Monday BEFORE market open, I think we would have seen a larger rise. It looks like Monday will be FOMO day if we have one. Premiums for options next Friday are high, so it is great if you are willing to take on the risk of selling those options today going into Monday earnings....

eh, i think it's obvious that the "natural" pressure of the stock has been upward this week, but it's been artificially hamstrung by the autopilot silliness and the capital gains scare.
 
That is as concise and yet as anodyne of an example I’ve seen of why the lack of a middle ground is the real problem posed to civilization by the rise of internet communications.
It's not the lack of a middle ground, it's the appearance of no middle ground because internet communications are used to take people's comments and twist them so they appear extreme. Capitals gains are already progressive. But if you oppose making them extremely progressive, you are now self centered and don't appreciate the existence of sidewalks and sewers.
 
TSLA today - not the action I was hoping for. If earnings were coming out on Monday BEFORE market open, I think we would have seen a larger rise. It looks like Monday will be FOMO day if we have one. Premiums for options next Friday are high, so it is great if you are willing to take on the risk of selling those options today going into Monday earnings....
I think putting TSLA just below the 3 month resistance line prior to earnings is a brilliant play by MM's. If TSLA earnings are a blowout we could see >100 point move to the mid-800's quickly. And if it is a disappointment, we could see a move to the 1 year support at ~650 just as fast. Taking a deep breath and a longer view going into earnings was what the slapping machine taught me over the years.
 
TSLA today - not the action I was hoping for. If earnings were coming out on Monday BEFORE market open, I think we would have seen a larger rise. It looks like Monday will be FOMO day if we have one. Premiums for options next Friday are high, so it is great if you are willing to take on the risk of selling those options today going into Monday earnings....

4/23 - 750 Open Interest -17.9 calls
4/30 - 750 O.I - 7.3K calls .... so ya 750 might be easier to cross next week. 800 call strike has 15K O.I

( note, just like the weather, the further out you are the less accurate the predictions :) )
 
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How does that avoid capital gains?
You can write off depreciation against the purchase price, among other things.

I have a house in another state, first house my wife and I owned, that we have rented out for 12+ years. It's a money maker rental unit, and we've never once paid a penny in state or federal taxes on it. Only the annual property tax (which is an expense that can be written off against the rental income).
 
Does anyone here know how to block posts by keywords, like "taxes" or "tax rate"?
I have been wishing for something like that for "robotaxi" for a long time...

So for perspective on SP price movement remember when were we were fighting fort $630...oh, like 3 weeks ago? Definitely frustrating but but not as frustrating as the AH algo rise on Monday on great earnings and the hard walk back we will see Tuesday morning.
 
Today's so far 1,8% in the green (just a tad more than NASDAQ +1,5%) on low volume feels analogous to if everyone sitting around a table playing Texas Hold 'Em would just call on the flop. The comes Monday (analogous to the turn) where the same thing is going to happen, then ER which is the river (final card) and only after that are we going to see some action...