Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

The ship loads (per ship) look lower this Qtr but I think we will have more ships this quarter than Q1.
In Q2 as of today - 29 days into the Qtr, 9 ships have departed from Fremont and Shanghai
In Q1 at 29 days into the Qtr, 5 ships had departed

Total Loading time of the first 9 ships through April 29 = 17.5 hours
Total Loading time of the first 5 ships through Jan 29 = 12.6 hours

Does this consider that there seems to be doubt about some ships departing from Pier 80 being Tesla ships? I'm not being a Patreon member to some of those doing tracking but our personal shipping guru on tmc seems to have some doubts. It used to be that every ship loading from pier 80 was Tesla so just count those. That seems to have changed with the container crisis closing Long Beach for Ro-Ro ships and some of those ships are now using pier 80 having nothing to do with Tesla..

More in this thread:
2021 Shipping Movements

Not sure how to link to specific posts in another thread but post #1135 on that page is about this. Always worth reading the last 4-5 pages.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I started watching his latest video you're referencing and have only made it about halfway as it's about 90 minutes but he's beginning to (or at least it's just recently started to annoy me) toot his own horn every chance he gets. I can't imagine what it's like to hire him to provide feedback when his attitude seems a bit arrogant maybe. Not to say I don't get moist listening to him praise Tesla now for pretty much everything but if he really is claiming that he's been promoting Tesla for 6 years, my memory is garbage.

About 3 years ago, his first review of Tesla on Autoline with John McElroy was scathing and not undeserved. Without rewatching it, the impression I got was that Tesla was garbage and an embarrassment in his eyes. To now claim he saw Tesla's potential 6 years ago is BS.
Now if he's claiming that he saw EV's as the only path forward 6 years ago, that could be true and my previous statement should be ignored.

My read was that Munro was a bit torn about the first batches of the M3. When I saw the M3 tear down on youtube he gave the built quality and gaps a sound trashing - no holding back. But he did praise the electronics and the super bottle.
Don't know the validity re. 6 years... could very well be true, since he used to do consulting for companies solely, before he also built a youtube brand, and expanded that during covid. Tesla could have been on his radar back in '15. Not promoting Tesla, but perhaps using them as a leverage to get his corporate customers to take EVs seriously.
I think he has done a full turnaround: He seems genuinely impressed by the many iterations and the speed of innovation at Tesla since '17. Also, for Elon to take the time to meet and talk shop with Munro was both kind and clever. The visit to SpaceX and design meeting was icing on the cake. Munro has a lot of respect for Elon.

 

[Brian121]

Just a quick update on Chinese situation from my perspective.

The Chinese FUD uproar started several weeks ago. But the FUD creator and her family had recently showed a lot of inconsistency and lying in their story. So for a week or so the tide had turned in Tesla's favor in China.

I am a member of a Tesla owners and possible future's owner's Wechat group, and naturally I was there fighting the FUD for several weeks already, arming with the knowledge I largely gain from this forum.

What impressed me is how may Tesla fans in there forcefully defending Tesla, and you can say some members are pure Fan boy and girls like us here where Tesla can do nothing wrong.

With regard to the future sales, there is a Tesla sales person in that forum. And he said most likely Tesla is shipping more cars to Europe and Asia pacific countries where the demand is high, like South Korea and Japan, waiting for the situation to calm down a little bit in China.

So Tesla is flexible there in that regard

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Apple absolutely crushed their top and bottom line numbers and their stock is flat today, so it isn't just Tesla that experiences this seemingly irrational reaction to earnings.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Finally, someone in the financial media who gets it about emissions credits. They state that if Tesla didn't have the credits, their pricing and business practices would adjust accordingly, But as it is now, they are taking advantage of a non-recurring revenue stream and turning it into a recurring revenue stream.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387701380614430721

Falling regulatory credits at some undefined point in the future aren't a threat to Tesla's stock.

The article is behind a paywall, but if you look at https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog there are some snippets there. Also Gary Black mentions it.

 

[Big Time]

Wow, what a fantastic feeling

 

[asburgers]

Apple absolutely crushed their top and bottom line numbers and their stock is flat today, so it isn't just Tesla that experiences this seemingly irrational reaction to earnings.

MSFT from earlier this week too. AMD is also struggling.

 

[Mengy]

Wow the market is free falling today, so much red on my watchlist.

 

[SOULPEDL]

All bets are off with this yield/inflation.

 

[2daMoon]

Interesting forward look from the Tesla Economist

TL;DW: TSLA flat through Q3 if there is no significant news on FSD or the 25K car development. Q3-Q4 earnings may have good enough numbers to justify reaching SP of $1K by year end.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... and I bought more at 693. I need a walk...

 

[CLK350]

Long front page FUD / hit piece in WSJ today on all things Musk.

Elon Musk’s War on Regulators

The Tesla and SpaceX chief has become one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs by reinventing industries from electric cars to rockets. Along the way, he’s also rewritten the rules of engagement with U.S. regulators.

www.wsj.com

Hits on all businesses and basically catalogues a lot of FUD over the years in making its case. Hilarious how you can spout lies for years and then assemble them into a list as incontrovertible evidence that something indeed is going on.

Elon’s response as per the article when asked? He sent them a ‘poop’ emoji.

Probably wise of Elon not to waste time engaging with the Smear/ Fud campaigners - that is what they want, smear, disparage, distract, and waste energies. The bad actors behind the smear campaigns are very well funded and organized, see for example this EVANNEX article from 2018 :
" ...
Attkisson describes smear professionals in the following way: "The smear business is interminable and eminently profitable. It’s silently turned into one of the largest white-collar industries in Washington, D.C. [and elsewhere]. It’s making thousands of people rich. It’s becoming one of our biggest global exports."

As I’ve already mentioned, the smear business works with sophisticated and moneyed clients who almost always hide behind large law firms who themselves use cutouts to make it extremely difficult to determine who is behind the smear. The client remains invisible while the goal is always the same—to use every means available to cripple the reputation and impugn the product of an adversary.

And when the paying client or the smear shop is confronted with circumstantial evidence of involvement in the smear, Attkisson describes their response: “Admit nothing. Deny everything. Demand proof. Make counter allegations. Discredit the accuser.” And therein lies the problem—it’s extremely difficult to prove that a smear is happening, even when every shred of evidence indicates that it is.

And who is behind all of this? Who are the “clients”? The obvious suspects are the same ones I mentioned at the top of this post—the shorts, big oil, and specific companies within big auto (luxury car brands come to mind, since Tesla has eroded their market share). But other possibilities could be entities that are threatened by Tesla’s business model (e.g., automobile dealer associations) or Tesla’s leadership in automomous vehicles. The structure of the smear industry makes them all invisible, and that’s a major part of its allure. .. "

As a contribution to the anti smear campaign, I created a Twitter post, easier to retweet, following feedback from the Help Fight the FUD TMC thread

https://twitter.com/alexisdetoc/status/1387758278885711874

Jim Farley, Ford CEO 's Twitter handle is @jimfarley98 - I will be posting this tweet on HIS tweet stream, and others for good measure.
Feel free to join the fight against this FUD & SMEAR campaign.

Twitter link to repost from to get to this

And on Imgur https://imgur.com/a/x8fgBO2 - Maybe someone can make a similar or corresponding Facebook post

Note also: Elon Musk - Class / Jim Farley Consumer Reports - Crass

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and I bought more at 693. I need a walk...

50-day Moving Average is 687.65 (that provided support for a few minutes). Do you think their next target will be the Lower-BB? Tomorrow? Catch the falling knife?

 

[LST]

Could not resist, bought another 50 at 682.49, what a steal.

and OT .. also pulled the trigger on two Powerwalls, done my thing for Q2 21 , you are all wellcome

 

[Todd Burch]

<s>Thank God Facebook is up almost 6% today, because they are the way of the future.</s>

 

[dgodfrey]

My read was that Munro was a bit torn about the first batches of the M3. When I saw the M3 tear down on youtube he gave the built quality and gaps a sound trashing - no holding back. But he did praise the electronics and the super bottle.
Don't know the validity re. 6 years... could very well be true, since he used to do consulting for companies solely, before he also built a youtube brand, and expanded that during covid. Tesla could have been on his radar back in '15. Not promoting Tesla, but perhaps using them as a leverage to get his corporate customers to take EVs seriously.
I think he has done a full turnaround: He seems genuinely impressed by the many iterations and the speed of innovation at Tesla since '17. Also, for Elon to take the time to meet and talk shop with Munro was both kind and clever. The visit to SpaceX and design meeting was icing on the cake. Munro has a lot of respect for Elon.

No doubt, Sandy has become one of Tesla's biggest and loudest cheerleaders. I think he even admitted to eating crow after that first video when the subsequent tear downs eviserated his eviserating. Meeting with Elon will go a long way in Sandy's perception for sure. I particularly enjoyed watching Sandy on subsequent episodes of Autoline with a panel of experts as he gushes over the significant lead Tesla has while sitting next to John McElroy who was spoon feeding Sandy the anti-Tesla drivel on those earlier videos. Now John can only sit and squirm.

I can tell when Sandy's influence and praise is hurting the other players by how much they dismiss his knowledge and opinions. Even to the point of raising other "experts" on a higher pedestal when they obviously have an axe to grind and trying to remain relevant like Bob Galyen.

Too far OT during market open so done for now.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is just stupid now. There is no tech rotation, and Tesla had a blowout quarter. Fine you jerks, I'll buy more.

<s>Thank God Facebook is up almost 6% today, because they are the way of the future.</s>

How else would we wind up with a country where a man in bull horns is able to take over the US capital? I despise FB, and not just because they let actual Nazis hang around but gave me a 30 day ban for calling someone a potato. (literally)

 

[Singuy]

<s>Thank God Facebook is up almost 6% today, because they are the way of the future.</s>

Any stocks that are up after earnings are fueled by short covering rallies. We will see it drop soon enough the next few days. SHOP was a good example of being up over 11% yesterday, while AMD went to negatives. I find AMD's earnings to be more significant.

 

[dl003]

What about the comparative RISK of this spread vs. just buying the CALL?

(FYI yes, I'm asking this DESPITE already having worked on some of the great online tutorials out there)

In my opinion, spreads are lower risk & reward than straight calls.

 

[Joe F]

I hate it when I get impatient. I know better, but getting tired of sitting on cash. Sigh.

Hopefully chipped diamond hands can be polished to add a new faucet soon.