Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

My analitics is simple: Gordo shown = stonk up.

Essentially......

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397575301060861955

 

[SN_8]

That's just mean.

Can't help it. It's the mode with kids these days.

On average, I believe you are correct. However, to get to the absolute facts, you would have to conduct a proper seance with a median

We really need a *groan* reaction for when isn't quite fitting.

 

[Unpilot]

My analitics is simple: Gordo shown = stonk up.

TBH that is a pretty accurate indicator.
Almost as good as AJ back in the day.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like they're targeting the Mid-BB (now at 623.19). Hitting that level often triggers some intra-day selling, but TSLA is still oversold and has a lot of positives right now.

Cheers!

... and there's the Mid-BB (just like clockwork b4 the 'noon whistle'). Wall St. lunch buckets.

Now I expect a slow walk dn over lunch, but let's see if some FOMO develops to help provide a little volume for support.

Cheers!

 

[Big Time]

LOL this stock action is funny. I’m excited but trying to figure out why on earth are we are still in the 600s.......
soon we go parabolic

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397575301060861955

Do the polls have a Lora Kolodny type of post clarification

 

[Unpilot]

Now I expect a slow walk dn over lunch

Your probably right...but I hope your wrong.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla recognizes about 60% as revenue immediately upon FSD purchase. So when a customer purchases FSD for $10k, $6k is recognized as Revenue and $4k is deferred. If that customer now buys the subscription at $200/month, Tesla would only get $200-$600 in that Quarter vs $6,000 vs the buy option.

Today, its 100% Buy and 0% Subscribe. In the future, if this changes to 25% Buy and 75% subscribe, there's a hit to revenue and cash flow.
If they launch the subscription service when FSD is feature complete, then they can recognize $10k for the 25% purchasing rather than $6k, offsetting some of the impact of subscriptions.

In the long run, subscriptions are better as the take rate will increase but there is a short term impact to revenues and cash flow.

i would venture to say that the take rate on both autopilot and FSD will skyrocket when subscription model is released which will more than make up for the different in up front payment/cash. The majority of Tesla owners I know are waiting for subscription model.

As someone mentioned before, when factoring the financial impacts, you have to factor in all of the current Tesla owners that have been waiting for the subscription model

 

[AudubonB]

We really need a *groan* reaction for when isn't quite fitting.

It seems to me a MODErator may have to step in a MEDIANate this microthread.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I bought TSLA because I couldn't buy SpaceX.

Besides, I trust you guys and gals. Well, most of you, anyway.

I have a similar background. Had some money three years ago. Researched SpaceX as the investment I wanted. Wasn't available which led me to Tesla.

I can barely tell the difference between a VW Beetle and a Rolls Royce on the road. I just don't care. They are all just huge pieces of metal to me. I haven't had a car for 20+ years but drive different vehicles a lot for work. If someone asks me an hour later what brand/model I just drove I mostly wouldn't be able to say.

Every now and then I see a car without a front grill and assume it's a Tesla. Otherwise I can only tell a car is a Tesla if it's parked in front of me and I see the badge. I invested because of the end goal and Elon.

Still never been inside a Tesla. You all have convinced me the car is actually good though.

Have worked well as an investment so far.

When my investment is worth 20x a model Y I will buy one though. Just because I can. Not that far off.

 

[kengchang]

Q2 Deliveries Continue on Extraordinary Pace

I believe the loading of ships for Q2 is now complete and we can see that loading times in Q2 exceeded Q1 by 21%.
If Tesla can continue this strong execution for the remainder of the Qtr in US, Canada and China, bulls will be very happy with the results.
See some additional comments below the table below.

View attachment 666406

Some additional points:

• I've included ships to Australia from Shanghai (as reported by our member Mr Miserable) which are not included in Franco's spreadsheet.
• Local deliveries in the US/Canada appear to be on hold as Delivery Centers wait for a firmware update. Deliveires are estimated to start in June. I believe that Tesla has planned for this so despite the high number of deliveries needed in June, I believe Tesla will execute well.
• As you can see in the chart, loading times to Europe are flat as Tesla prioritized AP (likely SKorea). Brace yourself for the FUD that demand is gone in EU as country xxx is down x%.
• The Q2 11% increase from Fremont is impressive considering space constraints with this facility......Tesla continues to find a way to increase capacity.

There should be one more ship that goes out from East Coast to Europe in June, is that being accounted or picked up yet?

 

[The Accountant]

There should be one more ship that goes out from East Coast to Europe in June, is that being accounted or picked up yet?

No, I don't have an East Coast ship in the count. I will keep an eye out for it.

 

[asburgers]

It seems to me a MODErator may have to step in a MEDIANate this microthread.

The greater the Brownian motion in this thread, the more likely we see the mod pull out the #008000.

 

[DarkandStormy]

As a folllow-up to my comment above, it has started already.
FUD waits for no one - of course no mention on how Tesla sales in Asia Pacific are to da moon!

View attachment 666433

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397419382104494088

Troy's Q2 estimate (public in a few days, I think) is revised down again, though that was likely in response to the parts shortage (and as you noted, very few - if any - Y VINs were being assigned for a bit there). I don't know what folks think about his estimates after last quarter's ~10% miss, though. I appreciate his work and thoroughness and hopefully he's tightened up on the issues from Q1.

 

[kbM3]

I would think the majority of the asset dollars associated with a new factory and its production lines is invested before they begin ramping production. The building, robots, GigaPresses, etc. are counted as assets before becoming fully productive assets. Progressing from 100 vehicles per day to 1,000 and then 10,000 shouldn't increase the total factory assets in a major way. The expenditures of time and labor required to allow the lines to operate faster and faster with fewer issues are operating expenses not additional assets. As more GFs are selected and constructed going forward, there will always be overlap between constructed ones maximizing their output balancing the capital expenditures for the new ones being built and provisioned.

I’m saying by the end of 2023, Tesla will have spent enough on assets for 3M cars / year. Pierre is trying to claim they will only have enough assets for 2.25M per year entering 2024 even after selling 2M in 2023. It’s possible he’s doing that analyst thing like Ark Invest does by looking at where the business would be at some future point if they stopped growing, but he didn’t make that clear.

 

[StealthP3D]

A Legendary Investor no one has ever heard of..........may be changing my handle to "Legendary Accountant"

I tried looking up the 74 year old "legendary" investor's net worth and found two answers:

$2-$6 million
and, drumroll...

$200,000

Hmmm...he must be one of those "legendary investors" with a lot of expensive divorces!

 

[asburgers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397419382104494088

Troy's Q2 estimate (public in a few days, I think) is revised down again, though that was likely in response to the parts shortage (and as you noted, very few - if any - Y VINs being assigned). I don't know what folks think about his estimates after last quarter's ~10% miss, though.

I think last quarter exposed a blind spot in his data stream. It sounds like has been working to figure it out, but I think he will hit a wall at some point with publicly available information. Still a very informative point of view though.

 

[asburgers]

I tried looking up the 74 year old "legendary" investor's net worth and found two answers:

$2-$6 million
and, drumroll...

$200,000

Hmmm...he must be one of those "legendary investors" with a lot of expensive divorces!

Probably good lawyers and accountants.

 

[kanweg]

This is funny, although I have no idea why you would own TSLA without ever inspecting their product. It's usually the opposite for most people, who drive a Tesla and then the lightbulb goes off that this is way.

If you could buy SpaceX shares, would you do it? I rest my case.

I have never been in a Tesla either. TSLA is my retirement fund. If the SP doubles and there is a model 2, demand will rise.