Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

Have you seen depreciation on a boat? Better yet... have you seen depreciation on a Tesla? It is NOT "close to typical behavior in the US" as you say. Tesla has been ave 10% annual from what I read. And if FSD goes to $14,000, it's gonna keep getting better for us, we only paid $8K for FSD back in the day.

I think I may have not been clear enough. the behavior in question is the average age of vehicle trades for the same brand. The limited data I have found implies that average age of Tesla traded for another Tesla is around 39 months. That is for purchased new vehicles not leased ones. I did not imply anything at all about actual resale values since all the data I have is inconclusive in that some suggests very high resale values and other data suggests pretty average. All we know for certain is that all used car values in the US have been rising strongly this year, probably a temporary phenomenon driven by economic recovery coupled with production shortfalls due partially to chip shortages.

 

[MXWing]

Confession:

I shorted 590/650 strangles expiring this week.

If price action continues into tomorrow, I'm going to get gamma squeezed.

If it happens, BRING IT. I don't mind being bombed as long as that punk Burry goes down with me!

 

[Curt Renz]

All he had to do is to step on the 1st base...what a moron

Indeed, and even after the runner appeared to score a run, a clean throw down to someone covering first base would have been the third out and invalidated the safe call at home. That's why after the apparent score, the coach was waving Baez to get to first base. The next batter knocked Baez home. Those two runs were the difference in the Cubs' 5-3 victory. This play will be regularly replayed on TV and in videos for decades.

 

[Discoducky]

Still Unwilling To Disclose Cell Issue, GM Buys Back Some Bolt EVs

GM definitely does not want to disclose what the manufacturing defect that caused Chevy Bolt EVs to catch fire was, but it is buying the cars back.

insideevs.com

Yep, not riding a Bolt. I don't know enough about this, but from that article it seems really bad as GM appears to not have a confident fix, not disclosed what is happening and is buying back cars ONLY in states with 'tough' lemon laws.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nope.

Foreign trade zones in the US are designated by the federal government.... and then ALSO require state consent (and if they could get that they could've just gotten the bill passed in the first place)

And all they do is let you avoid some international customs/tarrif costs- not dodge state distribution laws.... for example if you import a bunch of parts that would be taxed at 25% by the US, to build a finished product that would only be taxed at 15% by the US, you can bring them into the FTZ facility, assemble them to the finished product, and only ever pay the 15% while keeping the assembly location inside the US.





Law is the same for anybody.

With the cars being made in CA, the "loophole" was you ordered online in Texas. Tesla processed all your paperwork out of state. Payment done online (and none of this could be done AT a tesla facility).

Tesla would ship the car to a Texas gallery where you could go get in and drive off in the car you ALREADY own that you bought online, not in Texas... so they didn't deliver you a new car in Texas.


The problem with the Austin factory is, the car can't be IN texas when you order it- otherwise they ARE delivering a "new car" to a buyer.

So they're gonna have to ship every car bought by a texan OUT of texas first, then back in.

It's goofy as hell, costing Tesla money on both ends for transport.

Yeah, I actually don’t think Tesla will do that. Here’s how it plays out:

Texas resident orders car, Tesla texts/calls and says we can’t sell you a car. You’ll have to wait until we put some cars ‘on a lot at one of our stores out of state’ (which is what they do now) and purchase it there, or you can pay to have a car shipped to you from out of state. No out of pocket expense for Tesla.

Or...and this is what I think Tesla should do; sell DIRECTLY to as many Texans as possible. Indeed, make a HUGE, PUBLIC display. Break every auto/dealer law, get sued by the Texas Dealerships, plaster the stupidity of it all on front page news, have Texans protest publicly and shame the legislators and whomever else wants to stand up and defend an archaic, ridiculous, anti-free market, et al law.

 

[Discoducky]

Yeah, I actually don’t think Tesla will do that. Here’s how it plays out:

Texas resident orders car, Tesla texts/calls and says we can’t sell you a car. You’ll have to wait until we put some cars ‘on a lot at one of our stores out of state’ (which is what they do now) and purchase it there, or you can pay to have a car shipped to you from out of state. No out of pocket expense for Tesla.

Or...and this is what I think Tesla should do; sell DIRECTLY to as many Texans as possible. Indeed, make a HUGE, PUBLIC display. Break every auto/dealer law, get sued by the Texas Dealerships, plaster the stupidity of it all on front page news, have Texans protest publicly and shame the legislators and whomever else wants to stand up and defend an archaic, ridiculous, anti-free market, et al law.

Another good reason Elon moved to Austin, so he could sell himself a car in Texas. Talk about 4D chess

 

[Krugerrand]

It seems a LOT of progress is being made inside Austin, Joe has the best and most detailed coverage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1398055363606454276

#teamaustin!!

I’m going to be right. I feel it in my bones.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wowsers, 1,275,878 shares traded during the A/Hrs session today (that's over 5% of the day's volume to 4 pm). Even more, 1.12M of those shares traded between 4-5 pm. IMO, this was MMs scrambling to buy up shares which are in real danger of being Called away with tomorrow's Options contract expiries.

Saying that, wouldn't be surprised to see some sensational hitpiece before the Open tomorrow. MMs did the same trick last week... and just 5 days of FOMO until the Plaid delivery event. Wowsers.

Go go, Gadget shares!

Cheers!

P.S. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) did nearly the same jump in the final 10 minute before the Close, so this is definately a Whale buying up the shares:

 

[Curt Renz]

I wonder if the S&P ESG inclusion has an influence on the move? As far as I can see, the ESG inclusion was announced as early as 7. may. And if I get it right, it was effective as from yesterday. When ESG Etf’s, green funds and other funds want to join, they often apply to the closing price auction, where they have to place their order 10 minutes before close, and that order can not be changed. If you are a retail customer of ordinary funds, you may place your order, but you will not know the price before the closing the next day. The rapid increase in the price started right after the deadline of the closing auction. Other stocks going out of the ESG had the inverse reaction. I’m wondering who’s interested of pushing the price up before the closing price?

S&P 500 ESG Index: Tesla & Walmart Join, But Facebook & Wells Fargo Get Booted

Tesla enters the socially conscious index for the first time, while Facebook gets ejected due to poor "environmental reporting" and "policy influence" scores.

www.thestreet.com

S&P Global Website: S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces April 2021 Rebalance of the S&P 500 ESG Index

Excerpts:

AMSTERDAM, APRIL 23, 2021: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced today the changes in the S&P 500 ESG Index, effective prior to the the open of trading on May 3, 2021, as a result of the April rebalance.

Addition TSLA Tesla, Inc (among many others)

 

[jerry33]

Yeah, I actually don’t think Tesla will do that. Here’s how it plays out:

Texas resident orders car, Tesla texts/calls and says we can’t sell you a car. You’ll have to wait until we put some cars ‘on a lot at one of our stores out of state’ (which is what they do now) and purchase it there, or you can pay to have a car shipped to you from out of state. No out of pocket expense for Tesla.

Or...and this is what I think Tesla should do; sell DIRECTLY to as many Texans as possible. Indeed, make a HUGE, PUBLIC display. Break every auto/dealer law, get sued by the Texas Dealerships, plaster the stupidity of it all on front page news, have Texans protest publicly and shame the legislators and whomever else wants to stand up and defend an archaic, ridiculous, anti-free market, et al law.

When Tesla first started selling the S, a Dealer Association poll that asked people if manufacturers should be allowed to open stores, 82% said yes. So even though the public was in favour of it, it was still banned because donors are more important than the public.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, I actually don’t think Tesla will do that. Here’s how it plays out:

Texas resident orders car, Tesla texts/calls and says we can’t sell you a car. You’ll have to wait until we put some cars ‘on a lot at one of our stores out of state’ (which is what they do now) and purchase it there, or you can pay to have a car shipped to you from out of state. No out of pocket expense for Tesla.

Or...and this is what I think Tesla should do; sell DIRECTLY to as many Texans as possible. Indeed, make a HUGE, PUBLIC display. Break every auto/dealer law, get sued by the Texas Dealerships, plaster the stupidity of it all on front page news, have Texans protest publicly and shame the legislators and whomever else wants to stand up and defend an archaic, ridiculous, anti-free market, et al law.

In the bizarro world where this isn’t fixed, this is what I think will happen:

Tesla will lease some parking lots just across the border in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Convoys of semis transporting Texas-made Teslas will drive there, take a rest break, and drive back into Texas to deliver the vehicles. This will make Texas so much of a laughing-stock that a legislative Special Session will be immediately convened and fix it in a day.

 

[InTheShadows]

Way Off Topic, but it's well after hours, and this is good for some laughs.

This absolutely incredible baseball play after two outs is what I was watching today between peeks at TMC.

Wait!!! Who’s on first and what’s on second?

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, I actually don’t think Tesla will do that. Here’s how it plays out:

Texas resident orders car, Tesla texts/calls and says we can’t sell you a car. You’ll have to wait until we put some cars ‘on a lot at one of our stores out of state’ (which is what they do now) and purchase it there, or you can pay to have a car shipped to you from out of state. No out of pocket expense for Tesla.

Well, they can just keep sending Ys from Fremont once bought to Texas as they do now, and avoid a double ship, and just distribute Austin Ys elsewhere.

Not so much for the cybertruck though- they have no choice but to double ship that.

Seems unlikely they'd bill all texas buyers for that, but I suppose it's possible.

Or...and this is what I think Tesla should do; sell DIRECTLY to as many Texans as possible. Indeed, make a HUGE, PUBLIC display. Break every auto/dealer law, get sued by the Texas Dealerships, plaster the stupidity of it all on front page news, have Texans protest publicly and shame the legislators and whomever else wants to stand up and defend an archaic, ridiculous, anti-free market, et al law.

I'm not sure that's even possible, at a glance, without a dealers license as far as tag/registration stuff versus the sale technically happening outside TX then coming in and getting temp tags from an already-owned-out-of-state car.

Apart from that- financing would be impossible because a bank isn't going to approve a loan on an illegal sale (currently the loan is approved as if purchased out of state- which Texas residents often say forces a worse rate on them)

Lastly- if Tesla COULD just ignore the law and make a stink, and wished to, well they've already had 9 years to do it and haven't.

In the bizarro world where this isn’t fixed, this is what I think will happen:

Tesla will lease some parking lots just across the border in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Convoys of semis transporting Texas-made Teslas will drive there, take a rest break, and drive back into Texas to deliver the vehicles. This will make Texas so much of a laughing-stock that a legislative Special Session will be immediately convened and fix it in a day.

They can't bring them back until they're each sold.

The vehicle must be OUTSIDE Texas both before any purchase begins as well as until the sale is completed... it's not like they just have to leave the state for 5 seconds and turn around.

I suppose they can do holding lots and swap specific vehicles on/off trucks... unload the new ones, load up the ones that have sold since they were dropped off, kinda thing though.

At least with cybertruck they probably won't have to worry about what color a buyer wants (make the wrap a dealer option applied after sale)

 

[mekberg]

In the bizarro world where this isn’t fixed, this is what I think will happen:

Tesla will lease some parking lots just across the border in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Convoys of semis transporting Texas-made Teslas will drive there, take a rest break, and drive back into Texas to deliver the vehicles. This will make Texas so much of a laughing-stock that a legislative Special Session will be immediately convened and fix it in a day.

And do it in Tesla semis.

 

[StealthP3D]

Proof that we are living in a simulation...my 11 year old told me to buy RBLX when they IPO'd, he said everyone and their mom plays Roblox and its only getting bigger..I said ill buy you a 100 shares because i want to teach you that you need to think in decades when buying a stock and not focus on the short term. Was able to get 100 shares at $69 of all prices .... Today, he walks in when market closes and says, "Dad..what is RBLX at?" I look it up and it's $97

Hey! That's almost 4 1/2 shares of TSLA!

 

[Fred42]

In the bizarro world where this isn’t fixed, this is what I think will happen:

Tesla will lease some parking lots just across the border in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Convoys of semis transporting Texas-made Teslas will drive there, take a rest break, and drive back into Texas to deliver the vehicles. This will make Texas so much of a laughing-stock that a legislative Special Session will be immediately convened and fix it in a day.

I will be surprised if the legislature fixes this before 2030. The dealers lobby is as powerful as ever. There are car dealers everywhere, and they work the legislators. As their market share falls, there motivation to fight doesn't. Creating difficulty and extra expense for Tesla makes it worthwhile. And Tesla doesn't have interests throughout the state. They are focused in Austin which is unrepresentative of the state, and there's also SpaceX down in a sparsely populated area. And there's the oil lobby as well.

 

[uujjj2]

They should have built the plant in El Paso or Texarkana or some such place. Austin is smack in the middle of the state, 400 miles from the border. They'll have to ship cars 800 miles to sell one a block from the plant. Bonus: El Paso has reliable electricity!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I will be surprised if the legislature fixes this before 2030. The dealers lobby is as powerful as ever. There are car dealers everywhere, and they work the legislators. As their market share falls, there motivation to fight doesn't. Creating difficulty and extra expense for Tesla makes it worthwhile. And Tesla doesn't have interests throughout the state. They are focused in Austin which is unrepresentative of the state, and there's also SpaceX down in a sparsely populated area.

Disagree. I expect Abbott made a deal with Elon, and the Legislature ran out of time to deal with it (there was a lot of time required to try to deal with the grid collapse). I expect it will get fixed somehow, shortly.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, they can just keep sending Ys from Fremont once bought to Texas as they do now, and avoid a double ship, and just distribute Austin Ys elsewhere.

Not so much for the cybertruck though- they have no choice but to double ship that.

Seems unlikely they'd bill all texas buyers for that, but I suppose it's possible.





I'm not sure that's even possible, at a glance, without a dealers license as far as tag/registration stuff versus the sale technically happening outside TX then coming in and getting temp tags from an already-owned-out-of-state car.

Apart from that- financing would be impossible because a bank isn't going to approve a loan on an illegal sale (currently the loan is approved as if purchased out of state- which Texas residents often say forces a worse rate on them)

Lastly- if Tesla COULD just ignore the law and make a stink, and wished to, well they've already had 9 years to do it and haven't.






They can't bring them back until they're each sold.

The vehicle must be OUTSIDE Texas both before any purchase begins as well as until the sale is completed... it's not like they just have to leave the state for 5 seconds and turn around.

I suppose they can do holding lots and swap specific vehicles on/off trucks... unload the new ones, load up the ones that have sold since they were dropped off, kinda thing though.

At least with cybertruck they probably won't have to worry about what color a buyer wants (make the wrap a dealer option applied after sale)

Everything is so literal with you and lacking imagination. This will get sorted without it costing Tesla a bunch of money doing some illogical logistical gymnastics.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I do not know enough to call why, but I agree. It was market manipulation. only 25 million shares traded all day, yet 3 million in the last ten minutes. Today's movement was put into play around 11:30 AM. Purchasing dried up. the stock however stayed on an even course, and then "to da moon." None of today makes sense if the game was not fixed.

It was the result of a rebalance by MSCI.