Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maxstorz]

Ya.

I was hoping that the young ones between 20~30 will back our cause. But what I got was that hating the rich is more important than the environment. Welp, have to put our hope for the future in 20 and belows. Which generation are these ppl called?

I thought I was left wing until I met them

 

[Singuy]

I think that will be a very temporary limitation.

Have to say Vision only roll out is a cluster F. Everything should be validated first and have zero limitations on day one of roll out before taking out radar for new customers. Yea would cost some more money but at least it shows confidence that vision works just as good if not better. Currently vision only AP feels like beta again compared to radar ap which Tesla has a poor track record when it comes to self driving software being finalized.

If it's really 2 weeks out from finalizing and getting all the safety certifications then take out radar then. Make the transition as seemless as possible without making new customers feeling like they are being test subjects just so Tesla can save a few bucks. In fact it would play to Tesla strengths and the transition should be so seemless that 8 months from now, someone would tweet Elon "when should Tesla stop putting radar in their cars?", and Elon responds "we did that 6 months ago".

 

[PokerFJÆS]

UK data confirm Tesla 10x safety advantage.
Tesla: 28 accidents per 10000 cars, Toyota: 270.
Also noteworthy that the cars with the highest crash rate had 5 star safety ratings (!).

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[Maarten]

If it's really 2 weeks out from finalizing and getting all the safety certifications then take out radar then. .... just so Tesla can save a few bucks.

That Tesla took it out for money is an assumption and imo more than likely an incorrect one.

 

[elasalle]

Huge Pension Cuts AT&T Stake. It Bought Tesla, McDonald’s, and One Chinese Stock.

A Canadian pension more than halved its AT&T stake in the first quarter. It also bought more Tesla, McDonald’s, and NIO shares.

www.barrons.com

 

[inconel]

Not the first time Tesla has done this. I remember initially AP2 was not as good as AP1.

 

[Singuy]

That Tesla took it out for money is an assumption and imo more than likely an incorrect one.

The entire advantages of tesla's FSD hardware suite is based on having the lowest cost for scalability. So any implementation of having lower cost while providing equal or better result is a major win. Going vision only is a major win, however the roll out is a major L. Not one person is happy about getting gimped features with unknown eta when those features will be restore and have to rely on Elon time to get them.

The most likely scenario is that Tesla stop ordering radars a few months back because the decision was made and the software haven't caught up...like teslas style.

 

[82bert]

I was on the 15.12 build for a short period that reportedly was using vision only testing. Now I’m on .18 with radar. Vision only was working much better for me during that period. 0 phantom braking events and overall smoother AP.

 

[Singuy]

Here's a small review of Vision AP

 

[elasalle]

Shouldn’t the assumption be that the FSD beta was already not using radar(though installed) for a series of validations before decision to remove radar?
Also nothing stopping the release of MYs without radar...

seems like different problem for delay - if we are going to see 4680s - then could be more about battery mgmt software..
I week of tweaking definitely makes it a software issue

(+ using all the data tesla already has, Tesla could run simulations where the radar feed is removed and vision feeds are stitched into the new formats as required. After that it is all about running the NNs with the new feature set. Such a bold move to remove radar, must have been backed by some really good data. Decisions like this don't happen by chance, and are not based on guesstimates)

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

UK data confirm Tesla 10x safety advantage.
Tesla: 28 accidents per 10000 cars, Toyota: 270.
Also noteworthy that the cars with the highest crash rate had 5 star safety ratings (!).

View attachment 667503

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www.rivervaleleasing.co.uk

As positive as this data is, even it arguably understates Tesla’s safety record. Why ?

Because even though it is accidents per 10,000 models - the vast majority of the brands on that list are fair weather friends. They are locked in garages in inclement weather, and are not driven as much for daily use as opposed to for the purpose of fun.

No one is loading two screaming toddlers into their Ferrari in the pouring rain or snow to go grocery shopping. But they would in their Tesla. Inclement weather and distraction are substantial contributing factors to accidents.

Infiniti is the closest comparison ( not in the quality of the product ) but in the manner it might be used., and it has almost 4X the accident rate if Tesla.

Rather remarkable.

 

[winfield100]

i am surprised there has not been more discussion of spontaneous combustion of GM Bolts

how it may affect Tesla stock price, positively or negatively

Still Unwilling To Disclose Cell Issue, GM Buys Back Some Bolt EVs

GM definitely does not want to disclose what the manufacturing defect that caused Chevy Bolt EVs to catch fire was, but it is buying the cars back.

insideevs.com

GM seems to be very quiet about this problem, although I have not been following it much and need more information.

“......which comprises 50,932 Bolt EVs made from July 26, 2016, up to September 10, 2019....”
(over 3 years worth)

Imagine that combustion occurring outside, at a federal facility in the US, even worse, inside a very crowded “stacked” parking garage at one on the lower levels.

(a facility i am aware of had the L1 chargers by the elevator bank)

(we had over 3,000 parked cars burn at one time, at the RSW regional SW Florida, USA, international airport, due to a grass fire where they were parked a short while back and a few years back, over 52,000 propane tanks burn, flying through the air and igniting others one night about 100 miles north at a distribution facility)

it probably would be initially investigated as a terrorist act and EV’s banned immediately from federal facilities until some unknown time in the future, with concomitant fallout.

what possible good or bad outcomes for investors, not withstanding the very bad outcomes for all

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

i am surprised there has not been more discussion of spontaneous combustion of GM Bolts

how it may affect Tesla stock price, positively or negatively

Still Unwilling To Disclose Cell Issue, GM Buys Back Some Bolt EVs

GM definitely does not want to disclose what the manufacturing defect that caused Chevy Bolt EVs to catch fire was, but it is buying the cars back.

insideevs.com

GM seems to be very quiet about this problem, although I have not been following it much and need more information.

“......which comprises 50,932 Bolt EVs made from July 26, 2016, up to September 10, 2019....”
(over 3 years worth)

Imagine that combustion occurring outside, at a federal facility in the US, even worse, inside a very crowded “stacked” parking garage at one on the lower levels.

(a facility i am aware of had the L1 chargers by the elevator bank)

(we had over 3,000 parked cars burn at one time, at the RSW regional SW Florida, USA, international airport, due to a grass fire where they were parked a short while back and a few years back, over 52,000 propane tanks burn, flying through the air and igniting others one night about 100 miles north at a distribution facility)

it probably would be initially investigated as a terrorist act and EV’s banned immediately from federal facilities until some unknown time in the future, with concomitant fallout.

what possible good or bad outcomes for investors, not withstanding the very bad outcomes for all
View attachment 667551

If there was a Tesla parked within a 5 mile radius of such an incident the FUD headline would read:

“Light reflected off smiling Tesla owners filling causes massive fire. NHTSA investigating what can be done to reduce the happiness of Tesla owners to prevent these dangerous Tesla caused fires. Tesla’s FSD has not been ruled out as a possible cause”

 

[Causalien]

Lazy spoiled brats.
That’s my generation so I can talk about it.
They are envious of how easy our parents go their free pass to good paying job but they do not want to put the effort into it. They prefer to start an Instagram account and become influencers. They are risk averse. I know it because majority of my childhood friends went that way. While I worked my ass off to reach my goals, they partied all day everyday. They demonize the rich. The children they will raise will be the laziest generation of them all, you have not seen anything yet

I was pretty surprised when I read the result of what young ppl aim to be in each country. And most of the western world chose social media influencer.

 

[traxila]

I thought I was left wing until I met them

This. Exactly this for me.

But I have come to realize that they are not ”left” at all. They do not engage in debate. If you do not agree, then you are to be ignored. If possible, you are to be silenced. They do not subscribe to freedom of speech.

A better description is that they are totalitarian. Chilling, IMO, indeed.

And their lack of willingness to entertain other viewpoints and possibilities is increasingly leaving them... ignorant.

Can’t recall a time in history where ignorant, totalitarian movements led to good outcomes.

OK I stop here mods. This comment really spoke to me.

 

[wtlloyd]

3rd

What sort of “tweak” is Elon talking about? I hope it’s software rather than some physical change they need to make to thousands of cars already produced.

Really, I believe it is a hiccup in the "one more thing" planned for the event.

 

[JRP3]

Welp, have to put our hope for the future in 20 and belows. Which generation are these ppl called?

I think they call themselves Zoomers mostly, though that goes into the mid 20's as well.

 

[JRP3]

Lazy spoiled brats.
That’s my generation so I can talk about it.
They are envious of how easy our parents go their free pass to good paying job but they do not want to put the effort into it. They prefer to start an Instagram account and become influencers. They are risk averse. I know it because majority of my childhood friends went that way. While I worked my ass off to reach my goals, they partied all day everyday. They demonize the rich. The children they will raise will be the laziest generation of them all, you have not seen anything yet

"I see no hope for the future of our people if they are dependent on frivolous youth of today, for certainly all youth are reckless beyond words... When I was young, we were taught to be discreet and respectful of elders, but the present youth are exceedingly wise [disrespectful] and impatient of restraint".

(Hesiod, 8th century BC)

"The world is passing through troublous times. The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they knew everything, and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for the girls, they are forward, immodest and unladylike in speech, behavior and dress."

(From a sermon preached by Peter the Hermit in A.D. 1274)

What is wrong with young people today? - A view from the past.

The following quotes illustrate that adults always complained about the behavior of the younger generation - even back in the days of the an...

proto-knowledge.blogspot.com

 

[2daMoon]

Dad-gum whipper-snappers!
Now, where did I leave my curmudgeon hat?

 

[jbcarioca]

Agreed, does anyone remember when TACC was first released? Approved the code branch Dec 31st 2014.

Anyone watch this? Thoughts?

It's always valuable for me to understand how Pierre Ferragu approaches technology. Frankly he's the only analyst I will never miss. Several others are bullish, but the PF difference is that he always explores why accounting conventions distort high technology coupled with fast growth. He also does not make abstract evaluations, but also examines public companies who are suppliers, so has extra clues supporting his inferences. In this particular discussion he used his STM example that is quite relevant now in times of semiconductor supply constraints. Their big item is inverters so crucial to forecasts.

My personal view of his limitations lies with manufacturing. He understands the accounting issues but has not seemed to crash the fundamental issues of GF Berlin, GF Austin and GF Shanghai. Coupled with that is the issue of times required for new models (e.g. China and Germany designs. These developments are almost certain to shorten design cycles, reduce testing and production cycle time, accelerate production ramp while dramatically reducing every category of transportation costs.

By his forecasts it is clear that PF implicitly thinks the virtuous cycle will continue. However, with the resources he has available I would prefer to see more of the supporting documentation.

NOTE: I recognize I am one of the few who so strongly wants to look at every conceivable risk and potential reward. I also understand that I disclose virtually none fo my own work, so why should I criticize others for doing so? My answer si that I am not doing my work in order to sell my findings or opinions. I do it because I am obsessed to have low long term capital risk, although I mostly ignore short term fluctuations. So, PF is paid for his views, thus I want to see his work!