Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I'm going to flip that logic around.
The only reason Tesla would remove solvents and placeholders for ovens from the permit is if they knew they didn't need them. Otherwise they could end up in a position without a permitted process and no way to make cells. (With dry being easier to permit than wet)

Side note: I think the heavy foundations are for the high density vertical formation process racks (bookshelf looking things from the cell videos), sized for 10 days of production.

Did they originally have solvents in the permitting process for battery manufacturing?

If so, that's news to me. If not, you are essentially saying the same thing I am.

 

[mltv]

I'll be pointing to this when someone says, "I live in an apartment and therefore can't think about having an EV"

But to be fair, article does NOT mention the addition of chargers, but I can't see how they wouldn't install chargers along with the solar and batteries.

Any progress in green energy and sustainable homes and apartments would be a catalyst to additional chargers

 

[M|S|M MYP]

From Twitter @ajtourville:

View attachment 674821

View attachment 674822

Sorry @avoigt ... did not know he leaked your article.

 

[JRP3]

Did they originally have solvents in the permitting process for battery manufacturing?

If so, that's news to me. If not, you are essentially saying the same thing I am.

I'd be surprised if highly toxic solvents wouldn't be required to be in the permitting process if they were to be used.

 

[MD70]

I have a question for US residents. If Tesla produced a smaller vehicle like the one in this article for $25-30,000, would it sell well in the US?

 

[Nocturnal]

I have a question for US residents. If Tesla produced a smaller vehicle like the one in this diagram for $25-30,000, would it sell well in the US?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405784699323232263

Yeah. The stereotype of our huge cars is somewhat based in reality, but there are plenty of compact, sub-compact cars sold here. Model 3 is on the smaller end of "mid-sized" sedans. I'm thinking of vehicles like the mini, smart car, Sentra, corolla, jetta etc.

https://www.carmax.com/articles/best-small-cars

 

[insaneoctane]

Randy says about the Model S in this video: "The Model 3 is quick, it's powerful. And this is more than double--what??" He sure sounds impressed with the S's performance.

Likely because since the MS Plaid is delivering power that approaches the physics/physical limits, it’s even more about the driver. Randy is arguably one of the best drivers and it must be exciting for him to have access to this new level of (almost production) performance.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Yeah. The stereotype of our huge cars is somewhat based in reality, but there are plenty of compact, sub-compact cars sold here. Model 3 is on the smaller end of "mid-sized" sedans. I'm thinking of vehicles like the mini, smart car, Sentra, corolla, jetta etc.

https://www.carmax.com/articles/best-small-cars

I have at least a half-dozen friends that are waiting for a small city car with 250-350mi range before they dive into an EV. Currently they drive any variety of Toyota, Ford, VW, and Hyundai compact hatchbacks.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Nice rally. I'd like to pretend I have a clue as to why, but I don't

 

[lafrisbee]

I have a question for US residents. If Tesla produced a smaller vehicle like the one in this article for $25-30,000, would it sell well in the US?
View attachment 674853

Short answer : Yes.
College kids, single people, city dwellers. Second car.
Oh, all the corolla owners.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice rally. I'd like to pretend I have a clue as to why, but I don't

That's what I'm talkin bout Willis

 

[MD70]

Short answer : Yes.
College kids, single people, city dwellers. Second car.
Oh, all the corolla owners.

Ok,next question. How many could be sold each year?

 

[elasalle]

I have a question for US residents. If Tesla produced a smaller vehicle like the one in this article for $25-30,000, would it sell well in the US?
View attachment 674853

Think of it this way, Every EV sold is for the mission to transition to Clean Renewable Energy.

Every Tesla Car is a Trojan Horse for Tesla Energy.

Hell Ya it would sell. Lower the cost, higher is the TAM.

 

[Singuy]

Nice rally. I'd like to pretend I have a clue as to why, but I don't

This is the sector rotation back to high risk tech. The fed meeting earlier this week was considered to be news. Now it's time to sell the news. All of those sectors that was playing the rumor up to Wednesday is now rotating out. See how any inflation plays are all getting clobbered such as banks and commodities. I posted right after the announcement that we, as in tech, "will most likely be going up from here".

 

[StealthP3D]

IMO this is one of those information advantages that we have over the market. WallStreet doesn't have a clue that in "12 months maybe, 18 months definitely" the 4680 production is at volume production. This translates to May 2022 to November 2022.

I wouldn't say "definitely". I certainly think that will likely be the case but, from where I sit, this is one of the biggest risks to our investment, that it takes longer than expected to develop the manufacturing of 4680 to the point yields are such that we can reach the targeted margins. I suppose it's possible Elon was sandbagging but look at his direct words (from the call you quoted):

And basically, this is just a guess because we don't know for sure, but it appears as though we're about 12 -- probably not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680.

The key word is "probably". There are two reasons I'm not particularly worried about this:

1) It looks to me that Tesla will probably be OK, not great, but OK, if it takes longer than expected to ramp 4680 to volume production. Because they have not instructed their other battery suppliers to slow down.
2) There is not a single thing an investor can do about this other than buy, sell, hold and/or hedge (yes, oversimplified, but you get my point).

I'm holding unless I see a problem that the share price has not recognized. The problem is that these things tend to get discounted in the share price gradually as the odds of delay rise. The fact that 4680 production might not be as soon as projected is probably already discounted into the share price to a higher degree than the actual risk of a delay. That's my judgement call based upon my perception that Elon has a reputation for being late that probably exceeds his actual tendency to be late. But this isn't about Elon so much as it is about manufacturing processes (which we know are difficult). But Elon knows it's difficult and he's the one that projected 12-18 months, probably. So, without inside information it's pretty unrealistic to expect to be able to trade profitably based on the speed of 4680 ramp. And trading based on inside information (assuming one had any) puts a person at risk of jail time which would just be too stupid to risk.

If things go as projected, we all make out like bandits, if not, well, we might have to wait longer. Nothing is a given in this game. Yes, I'm stating what should be the obvious but I'm saying it because I've seen a lot of the "sure thing" mindset recently. I see this as a situation where the reward is much better than the risk. And the longer your time horizon, the more true I think this is.

 

[insaneoctane]

Short answer : Yes.
College kids, single people, city dwellers. Second car.
Oh, all the corolla owners.

Agree 100%. Kids who want Tesla’s but can’t afford them….by the droves

 

[Drumheller]

Monsoon in the desert that says it all

Really curious the talent they attract when the company is known for rolling a truck down a hill and the head of engineering being a construction worker. I am thinking there's a high chance the head of engineering might hire some people from outside of home depot in the early morning and put them on the back of the truck.

We do get monsoons in Arizona, though not as often in recent years. The Nikola plant is way out in the desert. Assuming it becomes functional, I wonder where the staff are going to live. It's a very long commute from Phoenix or Tucson.

On another topic, I currently live in an apartment and own a Tesla. It's not as easy as when I owned a house, but it's obviously possible.

As for the stock, I wonder if Musk’s tweet about a sequel is enough to cause any short covering. Would be nice to actually have transparency in the stock market. If it is enough to trigger some covering, maybe the stock might unstick from 600.

 

[insaneoctane]

The unlikely headline made me skim it…This headline/quote in particular is funny:

Now, it finds itself suddenly following the lead of an unlikely rival: Subaru.

Tesla is following in the steps of an unlikely rival: Subaru

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Very interesting TSLA price movement past week since the Plaid delivery event. low volume and the MM/short sellers are no as aggressive in pushing it down. It almost feels like they are scared that any moment now it will breakout big. Like we are just in a waiting game for FSD or other major news to break... Happy hodl'ing

 

[CLK350]

Hysterical (/s) note QQQ -0.5 % TSLA +1.76 % NIO +0.62 % as of 12:56 PM 6/18/2021 What's up? MM noise for fast intra day pump & dump ?

Entertaining myself while waiting for that inevitable/ unpredictable serious blowup which is bound to happen sometime before 2Q 2022