I like the idea of the subscription but To be honest I don’t see the point of this at the moment. FSD is not currently worth anywhere near $199 per month. Wait till you can release the Beta to all purchasers and then start selling subscriptions, so that the customer actually gets something in return for their money
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I think in the US you also need FSD or EAP for auto lane change, even triggered by manually engaging the turn signal.
I guess the subscription price will also increase proportionally to any increases in FSD purchase price.
Lots of break-even analyses between purchase and subscription going on and most assume depreciation in in the value of FSD at the time of car resale. I do not get that.
We already know that Teslas depreciate more slowly than other brands, and I'd posit that part of the reason is that the software actually improves with time.
Looking ahead, the same will be true with FSD and I see no reason not to still value FSD at the original $10k 4 years after original purchase (if not way more).
We already know that Teslas depreciate more slowly than other brands, and I'd posit that part of the reason is that the software actually improves with time.
Looking ahead, the same will be true with FSD and I see no reason not to still value FSD at the original $10k 4 years after original purchase (if not way more).
Nolimits
Member
This subscription has definitely accelerated the chatter here. As for the long road trips, AP does not change lanes for you so that’s really annoying. Also, we still enter in and out of cities (large or small). This, having to read stop signs and traffic lights would be helpful. Additionally, if it’s raining during the trip, Summon would be a fun party trick.
I am waiting for the DM cybertruck w FSD locked in at 8k. Would love to just sub for now w my M3 and try it out. If not worth it, I’d rather order the trimotor CT w/o FSD. My wife is trading her merc for the model Y this fall and was not going to get FSD but now that sub is available, perhaps on certain occasions, we would sub on the Y.
I think this model definitely works out for extra revenue for Tesla. Those who want fsd will likely just get it. I think there are more hesitant folks out there willing to shell out 10k. If people try fsd sub now and enjoyed it, but didn’t think it’s worth 10k, but later on their 2nd or 3rd tesla, when tesla releases version 11,12,14 or whatever and it’s that good, may be easy to convert them to buy outright.
I am waiting for the DM cybertruck w FSD locked in at 8k. Would love to just sub for now w my M3 and try it out. If not worth it, I’d rather order the trimotor CT w/o FSD. My wife is trading her merc for the model Y this fall and was not going to get FSD but now that sub is available, perhaps on certain occasions, we would sub on the Y.
I think this model definitely works out for extra revenue for Tesla. Those who want fsd will likely just get it. I think there are more hesitant folks out there willing to shell out 10k. If people try fsd sub now and enjoyed it, but didn’t think it’s worth 10k, but later on their 2nd or 3rd tesla, when tesla releases version 11,12,14 or whatever and it’s that good, may be easy to convert them to buy outright.
Nolimits
Member
And to those who only sub during road trips, typically it’s done w family and friends. Imagine the Tesla experience whose never been in one with FSD. It sells itself! Once the trip is done, they talk to their friends and coworkers, etc…..more converts. More profit. And sticks w the mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable yaddiyadda.
In my view the pricing leaves money on the table. But then, pricing should be high to pay for accidents where Tesla is held responsible.
As to road trips. Highway driving to your destination is one thing. But in Europe your road trip may well end up in another country where the rules of the road are different. The possibility of having city driving as well is ideal for that. So, I can imagine that for a month of holiday, $200 is fine as an additional expense. But for most other months where I just go to my dad every week plus another odd few hundred miles for say 600 miles per month total, $200 would work out as 30 cts per mile. Nah. Well, I don’t have a Tesla (Model too, where art thou) so it is a hypothetical anyway.
My dad, who you won’t believe it is even older than I am, currently doesn’t drive anymore. With FSD that would be feasible; city driving (and parking) is what they need most. No risk when falling asleep on the highway is a good thing too. But for most people here living on a pension, $200 is a steep price.
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The subscription option seems to me to be mostly free advertising for FSD. The better option is simple purchase. Hardware is likely to improve (HW 4 anyone) and purchase works best. It is like renting a house vs buying.
I expect to see lots of interesting options evolve from this subscription model.
I expect to see lots of interesting options evolve from this subscription model.
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Yes and despite the fact that they have been selling EVs for quite a while, like GM with the Volt/Bolt. Hope both of those are the first to go under.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
How many well known software products do you guys know that are available both at a fixed price and subscription?
There is also the added negative that by keeping the purchase option they will limit the ability to adjust subscription prices, because people will compare just as everyone here has been doing.
Once FSD is out of beta and subscription takes gets more reliable for the future there will be no reason for Tesla to let anyone buy.
As for everyone suggesting that the price will just keep going up I think you, and I guess Elon then although I think he's not necessarily fully transparent on the issue, are very wrong.
The only way the price will keep going up indefinitely for this product is if there is never any competition. Not now, not when Teslas FSD i ready, and not five years later.
$10k already adds 25% to the price of many new Teslas. $20k would add 50%. That price might work if Tesla only sold $100k cars to rich people cars but if Tesla wants to sell 20 million cars a year the ASP will be maybe $30k. The absolute majority of those owners don't drive enough to see the value or have enough money to pay that much extra even if they did.
I also don't understand why so many here is cheering for a higher price. I think Tesla will make more money with a lower price, resulting in higher take rates.
I guess we will see but all this talk about prices going up is anything but a sure thing.
There is also the added negative that by keeping the purchase option they will limit the ability to adjust subscription prices, because people will compare just as everyone here has been doing.
Once FSD is out of beta and subscription takes gets more reliable for the future there will be no reason for Tesla to let anyone buy.
As for everyone suggesting that the price will just keep going up I think you, and I guess Elon then although I think he's not necessarily fully transparent on the issue, are very wrong.
The only way the price will keep going up indefinitely for this product is if there is never any competition. Not now, not when Teslas FSD i ready, and not five years later.
$10k already adds 25% to the price of many new Teslas. $20k would add 50%. That price might work if Tesla only sold $100k cars to rich people cars but if Tesla wants to sell 20 million cars a year the ASP will be maybe $30k. The absolute majority of those owners don't drive enough to see the value or have enough money to pay that much extra even if they did.
I also don't understand why so many here is cheering for a higher price. I think Tesla will make more money with a lower price, resulting in higher take rates.
I guess we will see but all this talk about prices going up is anything but a sure thing.
totally agree. Take China where the take rate is 1-2% according to Elon. It is hard to imagine that at half the price dor a subscription, the take rate isn’t going to double. One thing however is that with FSD not almost perfect (yet), a high price helps to reduce (and pay for) the liability risk.
So, when it comes to acknowledging the revenue as income, I think Tesla will set aside a major portion of it. Of course I’m not @theaccountant (nor a lawyer) so I don’t know what I’m talking about.
When you add to that the warnings on trips that prevent you from falling asleep and prevent you from crashing if you do fall asleep, then that's a yes. Fear of falling asleep (I caught myself a couple of times) was the big incentive to switch from the 2013 S to the 2020 X.
You answered your own question. What is cheaper a 2 car household with no FSD cars and 5% utilization of said cars or a one car houshold with FSD and 10%-50% utilization because the car can drive itself to whoever needs it and potentially RT on the side. Bonus, you get 1/2 of your 2car garage back.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I'm not the accountant either but I think, and the consensus seems to be, that with a monthly subscription you are paying for exactly what you are getting that month. So Tesla has delivered everything that is promised so they should be able to count the full monthly price as income. Compare to when you are buying you are promised things that are not working yet so Tesla has not at this time delivered everything you paid so they can't count the full price as income yet.
dgodfrey
Member
No, the reason they showed the Mach-e system disassembled is once they had all those pieces and parts off, they couldn't figure out how to put it back to together. And based on the Mach-e fiasco in Norway, neither can Ford.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I can tell you are an American. In the rest of the world very few households have more than one car. Even fewer have a 2 car garage to start with. Or even a garage at all.
I was hoping for city street to come out with the subscription but it's not here. That's a big problem when that's the main event. Imagine world of Warcraft is coming out with a subscription of 15 dollars a month that you can start paying today..but not allowed to play until some random date in the future in which this game has been delayed for 4 years..but you get to play warcraft 2 special addition while you wait..
See with the FSD buy out, that's a preorder with a discount. Pre orders are a familiar thing. This is the first time I have seen subscription based product of something that doesn't exist. So I fully agree with your sentiment.
Because 100% of the value received (whatever that value might be) expires at the end of the month, 100% of the revenue is recognized during that month.
Sudre
Active Member
I would only use FSD on road trips by subscription. Anyone who has traveled realizes they are always living off a navigation system when in another city. It would be much nicer to let the car take me to my destination as a tourist. Road trips still have a destination to drive around in that is not on a highway.
I currently have FSD for my Cybertruck locked in but I will cancel that if the vehicle can not drive itself without a driver. FSD would be perfect for Kayaking since the vehicle could go pick you up down river..... I doubt most states will have the laws in place by the time Tesla is ready. Dealer states and traditional auto manufacturing states will also NOT do anything until their donations tell them.
As far as work commute?... I try to live near where I work. Right now I am 40 minutes away (for the next few months) but I do not need FSD for the 4 quick stop lights before AP would take over..... the middle of the country is just a different life style than the coasts. I think the subscription model will bring in a lot more people like myself who would normally never even consider FSD.
Do our European members think your governments will even allow FSD? Will they let a car change lanes by itself?
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