That might be true with regard to software but he predicted today's vehicle production numbers with amazing accuracy around 2012.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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That might be true with regard to software but he predicted today's vehicle production numbers with amazing accuracy around 2012.
"What you're seeing now with the refresh Model S. I mean this is not a vehicle that looks fundamentally different than what it did when it first came out in 2012".I'll just leave this here
And why should it? It's a beautiful car with a timeless design.
Wait... Why am I even wasting brain resources considering something Ed "Tesla Death Watch" Niedermeyer has said. 
For some things, it's easier to predict the long term than the medium/short one. I could bet my life that I'll be dead in 200 years but I won't bet a cent that I'll die next year.
Elon expect to have reached full production by a certain date but ignore when it starts ramping up. He's talked about S curves for years and has been rather right in abstract. How could you missed that?
Don't forget that in the USA, Tesla has their own proprietary connector
Of course the simplest solution to this would be to stop with this connector and transition to the CCS plug - then do the same as in Europe, add a second cable to the existing SuC's with a CCS, then all new SuC's going forwards CCS only, with a retro-fit CC2 upgrade and adapter for older cars
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I think him seemingly being reluctant to talk to people like Dave and Rob is that they are bound to ask a lot of questions coming from the financial side of things.
The reason he seems to enjoy talking to someone like the everyday astronaut or Munro is that he can geek out on technical details and they can follow the discussion about rockets and engines. With all due respect Rob and Dave would not really be able to do that.
That's not to say that a discussion with Rob or Dave wouldn't be more interesting for listeners and certainly investors.
I'm just saying that Elon personally would enjoy them less.
He did give several hours to that Third Row podcast project though, and he did one with the Ride The Lightening podcast just over two years ago. So I think he'll do it. Heck Dave and Rob know each other, I think Dave said he would have Rob on today even. They could do it together.
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Except you'd penalize everyone in the US who had bought a HPWC or invested in a destination charger. Better I think to penalize non-Tesla owners by having them buy an adapter.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Excellent quarterly progress update by Tesla. A few longer term comments by me to give some perspective.
Let's assume Tesla manage to deliver 850,000 cars in 2021. That would be ~ 1% of the typical annual global car/light truck market of ~85m, with the BEV+PHEV segment growth of 41% (by #) limited by cell supply*, with Tesla currently at 23% market share of BEV (by #).
Let's assume Tesla manage to deliver 5 GWh of storage in 2021. That would be ~ 50% of the projected 2021 annual global storage market of ~10 GWh growing globally at >50% yoy (ref 1) with growth limited by cell supply.
Let's assume Tesla manage to sell 0.4 GW of solar PV in 2021. That would be ~0.3% of the projected 2021 annual solar market of 150 GW, growing globally at ~7% yoy. (ref 2)
Let's assume Tesla end 2021 with ~30,000 Supercharger connectors. That would be ~10% of the likely comparable fast DC global chargers, growing globally at >30% yoy. (ref 3, 4)
Both the BEV and the stationary storage markets are high margin, insane growth, with relatively few competitors at scale. Whoever dominates (or stays on top) in the BEV segment should also dominate storage. The reverse is not necessarily true, nevertheless there is not at this point a significant peer competitor to Tesla in storage. The global charger network has increasingly obvious network effects, and again Tesla are significantly ahead and positioning themselves astutely. However PV is an entirely different matter and likely to remain so for at least a decade.
I am sure the implications are obvious to anyone here.
............
(ref 1) Global energy storage installations to more than double year on year in 2021: IHS Markit
(ref 2) Global PV installations to surpass 150 GW in 2021
(ref 3) Global Electric Vehicle DC Fast Charger Market 2020-2025 | July 2021 Updated [I couldn't get a good data point]
(ref 4) The global electric vehicle charging infrastructure market by revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% during the period 2020–2026 [I couldn't get a good data point]
* see my various posts in the "best of TMC" for data.
Let's assume Tesla manage to deliver 850,000 cars in 2021. That would be ~ 1% of the typical annual global car/light truck market of ~85m, with the BEV+PHEV segment growth of 41% (by #) limited by cell supply*, with Tesla currently at 23% market share of BEV (by #).
Let's assume Tesla manage to deliver 5 GWh of storage in 2021. That would be ~ 50% of the projected 2021 annual global storage market of ~10 GWh growing globally at >50% yoy (ref 1) with growth limited by cell supply.
Let's assume Tesla manage to sell 0.4 GW of solar PV in 2021. That would be ~0.3% of the projected 2021 annual solar market of 150 GW, growing globally at ~7% yoy. (ref 2)
Let's assume Tesla end 2021 with ~30,000 Supercharger connectors. That would be ~10% of the likely comparable fast DC global chargers, growing globally at >30% yoy. (ref 3, 4)
Both the BEV and the stationary storage markets are high margin, insane growth, with relatively few competitors at scale. Whoever dominates (or stays on top) in the BEV segment should also dominate storage. The reverse is not necessarily true, nevertheless there is not at this point a significant peer competitor to Tesla in storage. The global charger network has increasingly obvious network effects, and again Tesla are significantly ahead and positioning themselves astutely. However PV is an entirely different matter and likely to remain so for at least a decade.
I am sure the implications are obvious to anyone here.
............
(ref 1) Global energy storage installations to more than double year on year in 2021: IHS Markit
(ref 2) Global PV installations to surpass 150 GW in 2021
(ref 3) Global Electric Vehicle DC Fast Charger Market 2020-2025 | July 2021 Updated [I couldn't get a good data point]
(ref 4) The global electric vehicle charging infrastructure market by revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% during the period 2020–2026 [I couldn't get a good data point]
* see my various posts in the "best of TMC" for data.
Agree, the reaction from Elon about the interview request in the earnings call was more a No than a Yes IMO and the 'fair enough' tweet statement is also very tempered. He could have said yes but didn't. Not sure if he is keen but in any case, Elon will continue making interviews with YTs and other
JupiterMan
Active Member
The 2 cable set up in Europe is only on V2 superchargers, all V3 only have CCS2, I think as a consequence of the cooling requirements.
For adapters, the S/X in Europe have issues as the CCS2 adapter also limits the charge speed somewhat, so over here we cannot get anything beyond 142kw using that adapter (hopefully this will change with the refresh, with native CCS2 port), this could also be an issue in US if needing an adapter to go to CCS standard for 3rd party chargers.
For Tesla in US, a good solution could be to have dual sockets (on new builds) at the car end for both the Tesla & CCS plug, give Tesla owners best of both worlds without the need for adapters.
The earnings release and the numbers we saw, including the conference call, make me more positive than ever about Tesla's future.
Since I started investing in 2015 with very limited information about Tesla available, a time when most of teh company was still unknown and unproven, the company's credibility and execution has improved every year.
We may now be at an inflection point where investors who previously shied away from Tesla are now considering the company. Anecdotal evidence is that I can't recall ever seeing so many positive articles in Germany in Europe about Tesla Finance.
While the after-hour and today pre-hour action yesterday may be disappointing for most I would not assess the situation based on what happened AH, today or even this week. What matters is the added company value, proven business case, that promises have been met, and credibility increases.
In addition, there is really very little to criticize left which makes it hard for the few bears that still dare to speak out loud to make an argument.
TSLA is a must long term investment and IMHO the stock should be already today at $1,000
Since I started investing in 2015 with very limited information about Tesla available, a time when most of teh company was still unknown and unproven, the company's credibility and execution has improved every year.
We may now be at an inflection point where investors who previously shied away from Tesla are now considering the company. Anecdotal evidence is that I can't recall ever seeing so many positive articles in Germany in Europe about Tesla Finance.
While the after-hour and today pre-hour action yesterday may be disappointing for most I would not assess the situation based on what happened AH, today or even this week. What matters is the added company value, proven business case, that promises have been met, and credibility increases.
In addition, there is really very little to criticize left which makes it hard for the few bears that still dare to speak out loud to make an argument.
TSLA is a must long term investment and IMHO the stock should be already today at $1,000
Sure, same problem in Europe - I have a HPWC that will not work with my pending Plaid (which I assume will be CCS, not Type 2)
In the US Tesla have to transition to CCS at some point, it makes no sense to continue with a proprietary connector
Is it the CCS adapter limiting the charge rate or the car? With my XP100DL, it charges the same on v2 and v3 (with adapter) as the max speed is limited to 150kWh
What about Raven MS/X, I guess they are CCS as they take a 225kWh charge (if I remember well)
In any case, it behooves Tesla to move to CCS for all markets
Probably super limited, but I did get a recall notice on my Model Y this morning:
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We’ve seen Apple do this again and again, despite loud voices in opposition, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Tesla has to look forward and say if they’re delivering tens of millions of cars over the next decade, are they better off if they switch to the universal plug after the first couple million, giving 95%+ future owners direct access to all fast chargers. It would require going back to all existing superchargers, and maybe offering a deal to all destination charger/HPWC owners… but growth means in a few more years that problem becomes so much harder it may well be completely impractical, whereas now it would be a bit painful but still potentially make the future charging scenario brighter. (Honestly, I’m not sure I’d care a lot if I had to permanently attach an adapter to my HPWC so long as it didn’t introduce rain/snow problems.)
I don’t really see them putting two ports on the cars… part of the point of the Tesla connector was to take less space.
Big picture, 5 or 10 years down the road it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be better off using the same plugs as everyone else in the US. If Tesla has 20% of the market, who wants to own the car where you are limited to 20% of the available charging stations? If other charge networks up their game as EV share rises, weird as it sounds today, the supercharger network could be a limiting factor instead of a big advantage. Still a big if, but hard to imagine the other charging networks will permanently be underpowered and undermaintained.
I suppose Tesla could just throw a CCS adapter in every car they sell and call it a day… not that they’re big on adding cost to every vehicle. Hmm.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I think that Tesla is planning on selling batteries to other car manufacturers as well. No one else is able to mass produce cars because they don’t have a battery supply.
Did we get a solid answer on where the heck the X is? I wouldn’t mind a follow-up call.
Tesla has moved some on the possible 100 GWh / year rate by end of 2022. That’s a downward revision from the q4 call where they stated they were targeting 100 GWh production for the year.
————
Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations
Thank you. The next question is what is Tesla's current gigawatt-hour run rate of the 4680 cell production? How do you see this run rate evolving by mid-2021 or end of 2021?
Elon Musk -- Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think we kind of talked about that true. I mean essentially, what we're saying is that the number to think about or focus on is like we've got a 100 gigawatt-hour total Tesla cells produced in 2022. It's not that important to look at the run up to that because -- but these things tend to improve exponentially. But we are installing capacity for -- in 2022 for 200 gigawatt hours a year and we think probably we should be able to achieve 30% of targeted design capacity in 2022.
————
Although to be fair Elon seems to contradict himself in the q4 call, by 1st stating 100 GWh produced and then stating 30% of the 200 GWh capacity.
But thinking about 4680 cell production ramping to 200 GWh / year in 2023 means 2023 should outshine 2022 by a lot. Adding on the doubling of supplier cell capacity in 2022 just indicates the magnitude of growth they’re expecting.
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