Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

C’mon folks, stop being surprised when the SP doesn’t react at any moment the way you think it “should.” In the short term, the SP is influenced by a myriad of factors that are not transparent. It’s not just TSLA. Regularly I see tepid after hours and next day trading after big earnings beats.

In the long term, financial results like today’s will be richly rewarded.

 

[2daMoon]

You don't usually see Reuter's piling on like the folks at CNBC who straight up sell their headlines. Must be desperate times!

View attachment 688536

Here's to muddy outlooks!

Mmmmm, Cybrtrk like mud! (in voice of Mongo from Blazing Saddles)

 

[ZeApelido]

Pretty sure I heard (Zach?) mention in the background that they have an anti theft solution.

Electricution?

 

[2daMoon]

These results may very well be the final wakeup call for some whales that were sitting on the sidelines until now.
However, such whales do not like buying chairs at premium prices, they want them on significant discount.
How will they manufacture a big enough dip for their taste ??? That is the million billion dollar question of the week.

Oh, that's easy, just have them look at the all time high, then at today's price.
Then, review earnings report once more and realize the SP is already at a significant discount.

 

[X Fan]

Gene Munster on Bloomberg now giving the real low down on 2Q ER. Focusing on all the things everyone else is

Recap?

 

[PeterJA]

...They said that competition will end Tesla's reign and it's growth story. Let's see.

Chevy release the bolt. Tesla sales grew.
Audi released the etron. Tesla sales grew.
Porsche released the taycan. Tesla sales grew.
Ford released the mustang Mach e. Tesla sales doubled.

But wait, Mercedes has the next Tesla killer coming.

Don't forget the forthcoming Tesla-killer from BMW. Their i4 reportedly has less range, slower charging, slower acceleration, much less cargo space, but higher price than Model Y. Also no frunk, showing BMW's commitment to cutting-edge design.

I have opined before, based on their management's public attitude toward EVs, that BMW will be among the first ICEmakers to go bankrupt. The i4 confirms that opinion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@DaveT explains Tesla's secret sauce for the near term: "Operating Leverage"

Why Tesla’s profits will more than double in next 12-18 months (Ep. 394) - YouTube

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

That said, they apparently already have some great idea for handling this, though no details given yet- and seem to prefer adapters be on-hand at the stations rather than leaving it in owners hands.

This whole idea seems well thought out and well planned...

My hunch is the adapters themselves are not overly expensive for Tesla to make... they are locked up somehow or software locked to the site, Stored in a central bin, rather than an adapter per stall. Installation is a quick one-time trip, perhaps the bin and all of the adapters is simply rolled into place via a trolley/forklift.

The reason given for doing it was also given to lift utilization rates, and the unstated reason is a bit of "gorilla marketing".

In terms of the mission, other car companies are forced to act or watch their customers become captive customers of Tesla fast charging, where Tesla owners will be very happy to detail the merits of a Tesla.

The only smart play for other car companies and others that want to slow Tesla down is, invest in more competitive fast charging, keeping pace with the Supercharger rollout isn't easy... But sitting back and watching all EV drivers become Tesla customers isn't smart.

The problem those competitive fast chargers face is utilization rates, they may need to open up fast charging to Tesla drivers just to keep utilization acceptable.

With high utilization adding more chargers or another site in the area is an easy decision, Low utilization is a lot of capital sitting around not earning much return,.

 

[Jack6591]

@DaveT is crushing it today. Great job Dave I appreciate your analysis.

 

[RobDickinson]

"You can charge via our Supercharger network but first a word from our vehicles"

 

[RubberToe]

Mailbox like stand holds 8 Tesla to CCS adapters. Tesla app for non-Tesla drivers unlocks and opens the mailbox on approach, just like phone as key opens the car. When done charging, driver puts dongle back in mailbox and closes it. No messing with credit cards or fobs, seamless.

RT

Also gotta think that any non-Tesla EV owner who has spent any time at a non-working charger would be chomping at the bit to pay $250 for the dongle to be able to use the Supercharger network at will.

If each dongle identifies the owners credit card than that could work. It has to have some information to convince the Supercharger to cough up the electrons.

RT

 

[dhanson865]

"Let's do the conference call over seven newly-installed, non-tested devices all chained together over wi-fi here at the new Gigafactory. What could possibly go wrong?"

More like they are doing it over Starlink and had a moment of no sat overhead.

 

[MC3OZ]

Also gotta think that any non-Tesla EV owner who has spent any time at a non-working charger would be chomping at the bit to pay $250 for the dongle to be able to use the Supercharger network at will.

If each dongle identifies the owners credit card than that could work. It has to have some information to convince the Supercharger to cough up the electrons.

RT

There is an app on your phone, you need a Tesla account, which is linked to a credit card.
The phone probably talks to the adapter via WiFi/Bluetooth and the adapter talks to the Supercharger.

So my guess is the car thinks it is talking to a normal non-Tesla charger and does what it normally does.
Some non-Tesla changers here have a mobile app and a linked credit card, often a RFID card as a "tap and go" mechanism..
This isn't actually that different to how some non-Tesla chargers operate.

 

[twtestw]

"You can charge via our Supercharger network but first a word from our vehicles"

I’d want Tesla to be a complete savage and build the vehicle trade-in quote right into the app.

I know there will be FUD in this, but this likely makes Tesla supercharging eligible for US Infrastructure grants as well. Lots of free promo is about to be funded by this bill.

(For “reporters” trying to twist this into a negative, you should be praising Tesla for building out a network of high speed chargers when hardly anyone else would even try)

 

[Maarten]

Apparently you disagree with Zach as to his own career. Wikipedia has his bio: Zach Kirkhorn - Wikipedia, as does his LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zachkirkhorn.

Wikipedia says:
Education
From 2002 to 2006, Kirkhorn studied both Economics at The Wharton School and Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics at the University of Pennsylvania as part of the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology. In 2013, he received an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Career
During his studies in 2005, Kirkhorn joined Microsoft as a Financial Analyst Intern. In 2006, he did another 4-month internship at Microsoft as Program Manager Intern. After graduating in 2006, Kirkhorn spent nearly 3 years working at McKinsey & Company as a Senior Business Analyst.

In 2010, Kirkhorn joined Tesla as a Senior Analyst in Finance. In December 2014, he became Director of Finance, and in December 2018 he was appointed as Vice President of Finance. On January 30, 2019, Kirkhorn was announced to replace Deepak Ahuja as Tesla's new CFO on the Q4 Tesla earning call.

So when it comes to ignorance and arrogance, I think you win. This is not "new evidence".

So the fact is that Zach is a bean-counter, no matter how good. He was never an engineer. It is my opinion that that means he will never be CEO of Tesla, and that Elon will have lost his mind if he puts him in that position. It's not possible for him to do the job as it needs to be done for a company like Tesla. He's just great at the job he's doing.

If you would meet Zach Kirkhorn in real life, would you address him as 'bean-counter'?
If not, then please consider why you are using such disrespectful language here.
You are entitled to your opinion of course, but I think it will suit you to use language that shows some more respect for what people like Zach are doing for Tesla.

 

[RobDickinson]

I’d want Tesla to be a complete savage and build the vehicle trade-in quote right into the app.

I know there will be FUD in this, but this likely makes Tesla supercharging eligible for US Infrastructure grants as well. Lots of free promo is about to be funded by this bill.

(For “reporters” trying to twist this into a negative, you should be praising Tesla for building out a network of high speed chargers when hardly anyone else would even try)

Haha love it. Should be able to figure out what the car thats charging is too from the vin.

"Welcome to tesla Superchargers"

"We see you are in a /chevy bolt/ , please take care charging, fire service is available on 911, also the Tesla model 3 has 205miles more range and a 0-60 of just 3.4s, you could also save yourself 36 minutes on this charge session"

"Upgrade now and accept a trade in of $14,448 on your Chevy Bolt!, click accept to continue"

 

[AudubonB]

Something to ponder as a way to discern the vulnerability of the world’s auto makers to the ongoing “chip” shortage:

Is there a reasonable way to calculate how many chips a particular model, line, or company uses per vehicle? Now, even I know that amassing all chips as the same, so they equally can be counted, is as appropriate as saying that all words are the same because they all use letters, but whether they are memory chips or GPUs or microprocessors or shape-shifting time travel-enablers - can one say that Company X’s vehicles or line of autos is more or less vulnerable to such a shortage than are Company Y’s?

 

[Ratanpara]

Tesla bull may be baffled why stock not reacting violently higher, my explanation is Tesla short sell ratio is no longer like it used to be, any good news on company ,short sellers are the first to react and cover their positions thus immediate price spike, most long term investors buy stock over time , I do expect steady rise in stock over next few weeks barring any macro events. Just my 2 cents, market could do whatever on given day.

 

[Thekiwi]

I thought this was an interesting part of the conference call:

"We’re also aiming to do a structural pack with 4680 cells, which is a mass reduction in the cost reduction and — but we’re not counting on that as the only way to make things work. We have some backup plan with non-structural pack and 2170s essentially"

Given that Austin is looking close to producing Model Y (confirmed to start by year end) - but the 4680 lines still have some engineering work to complete before being ready for mass production - I think the odds are high that the first Model Ys produced at Austin & Berlin will be using 2170s.

Which isn't a problem when you consider they also said they will be getting DOUBLE the supply of cells from external suppliers in 2022.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Using EPS (GAAP) we had a trailing twelve month (ttm) EPS of $1 and a corresponding 658 P/E (rounding up TSLA's share price at market close of $658 and ignoring AH). With Q2's $1.02 EPS (GAAP) the ttm EPS was $1.92 and a corresponding 342 P/E.

If Tesla grows EPS by 15% in Q3 and Q4 we should see EPS of $1.1 and $1.35 resulting in an end of year EPS (ttm) of $3.93.
With a ttm EPS (GAAP) of $3.93 here are some share prices we could see using P/E at end of year:
658 P/E = $2,585
342 P/E = $1,344
200 P/E = $786

Bear case: EPS freezes at Q2 rates of 1.02 for Q3 and Q4. That would result in EPS (ttm) at end of year of $3.45.
With a ttm EPS (GAAP) of $3.45 here are some share prices we could see using P/E at end of year:
658 P/E = $2,270
342 P/E = $1,180
200 P/E = $690

Also, since I prefer P/S ratios here is some revenue numbers:
Q2 to Q1 saw a 15% increase. If Tesla continues on that trend we should see Q3 13.8B and Q4 15.9B (rounded) for a total of $52.1B in revenue for 2021.
At a 20 P/S ratio the corresponding price would be: $1,082.

Of note, Elon's Stock Based Compensation anticipates his next tranche to likely be accomplished and the corresponding revenue number they need to hit is $55 billion.

Blue Horseshoe likes TSLA and reiterates $1,000+ for TSLA by year end.