Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

I wonder if the proposed EV Rebate package could unwittingly destroy the OEMs. I'd venture a guess 75% of truck owners don't really need a truck. I fall into that category. If a potential buyer wants to buy an F-150 but figures out the electric version is better and they will get a 12,000 dollar rebate if they wait, why would the buy the ICE F-150? They may just wait for the Lightning to become available and that will take years.

I follow your logic and would basically agree. I feel like the OEMs are thinking that Tesla won't be able to put out as many cars as they have predicted (50%+ CAGR) and that if they produce EV's that meet the requirement, those vehicle will all sell out. And while that may happen, Tesla will be most likely *saturating* the market with superior vehicles.

The question for me is: What market share will competitors have for the truck market in 2024? Tesla will most likely have a 1M/yr run rate at that point and be selling every single one they make...before it is made at a multiple of the legacy OEMs profiit margin.

 

[FS_FRA]

A bit strange though that the model 3 SR+ appears to be widely available across europe for delivery this month for new orders.

I believe that’s simply due to the fact they stuffed as many 3SR+ from Shanghai onto the boats that just arrived, or are on their way here, as they could.

 

[FS_FRA]

Agreed.

Driving east from NL there is quite a lot of car-carrier traffic bearing 3s and Ys.

Passing through Austria and Hungary there are lots of 3s on the road.

The Supercharger network is close to linking up through Serbia and Montenegro into Greece. I caught site of one at Nis in Serbia. The others in that sequence are coming. Italy must be hot.

Dropping an end of quarter ship into Trieste or similar would be a smart move.

The pump priming for Berlin is very obvious.

It is no wonder VW is struggling with ID3/4/etc sales.

The other reason Koper is attractive is that the main Italian ports Genoa and La Spezia are a nightmare at the moment. My company imports into Italy through those as we need to get to Turin, and we’ve not had an on-time delivery for over a year. Typical delay 2 weeks.

Genoa is also a nightmare for road traffic, on any given day.

 

[2daMoon]

How is it possible for the fleet to shrink that quickly (~25 million a year)?
Unless used cars are being exported, the only way the fleet can shrink is by scrapping them. Given vehicle life span (12 average) and annual sales rate (14 million for light duty), the maximum drop off, even with zero new sales, should be around the production rate 12 years ago. Roughly sub 14 million a year.
Otherwise, people are effectively taking a loss on the residual value versus scrap value (sub $1,000 unless being parted out). To make sense, this requires that there is no one for whom the utility value of the used car is higher than the scrap value.
Alternatively, the glut of used cars results in no new car sales/ production, and everyone buys used as people switch to TaaS and ditches their newer cars. Still doesn't support the rate of decrease though.

My take from watching some of Seba's videos is that with an effective RoboTaxi option, those folks who can integrate this easily and replace the use of their car will see no good reason to keep paying for maintenance, insurance, etc. for an ICE lawn ornament.

Once this trend becomes widespread and used ICE becomes a nothing burger, the only alternative will be to sell it cheap to an ICE holdout (if one can be found) or sell it for scrap pricing.

This would lead to a dramatic reduction in functional fleet size as one RoboTaxi can replace multiple privately owned ICE vehicles.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ford EV commercials all over the Fox NFL coverage. Boy this feels expensive!

Commercials for a car they only are planning on making ~40,000 a year of? Sounds expensive to me.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Interesting that in BC Canada we don’t see an estimated date of arrival on the order page for model Y or 3 anymore. Is that happening everywhere? Or are are we just special?
(Before it disappeared it was showing January).

 

[Artful Dodger]

My Q3 2021 P&D Forecast

This is probably the most bullish I have been on P&D estimates. I am estimating Production of 236k vehicles and deliveries of 240k.
See details here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

I saw a post about salaries in Giga Berlin. Those salaries seemed extremely high for manufacturing jobs, and they didn't even include stock based compensation. I assume the situation is similar in Fremont. We don't know exactly which factory and region is making profits but I started to think...

teslamotorsclub.com

Indeed, "beauty is in the eye of the sharehodl'er"...

Image credit Jason Yang / Giga Shanghai.

Cheers!

 

[InTheShadows]

When the innovations are just cupholders, then there won't be a real reason to upgrade

Haha cup holders. At least we have them both in the front and the back seats now. And in an accessible location. Bought that stupid strap that didn’t work for the rear of our 2013 S for I think $150.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone know what Elon is doing in New Jersey?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436935981559603200

The airport is in the New Jersey Meadowlands, 12 miles (19 km) from Midtown Manhattan, which makes it popular for private and corporate aircraft.

The airport has a weight limit of 100,000 pounds (45,000 kg) on aircraft, meant to make it nonviable as an airline airport.

Elon's Gulfstream G650ER has a gross weight of 103k lbs, so it's the largest type of business jet that is allowed to use Teterborough.

Elon's probably going to see his lawyer, or his broker, or both...

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Lars is back again to amuse us over the weekend. Teslaps for Chevy, VW, Porsche, and more. Daimler gets a stern talking to about their latest "boring" car.

Enjoy!

 

[azaz]

elon is probably going to the met gala

 

[22522]

The airport is in the New Jersey Meadowlands, 12 miles (19 km) from Midtown Manhattan, which makes it popular for private and corporate aircraft.

The airport has a weight limit of 100,000 pounds (45,000 kg) on aircraft, meant to make it nonviable as an airline airport.

Elon's Gulfstream G650ER has a gross weight of 103k lbs, so it's the largest type of business jet that is allowed to use Teterborough.

Elon's probably going to see his lawyer, or his broker, or both...

Cheers!

Does not matter for Elon, but state of FSD at one time seemed like inside information. Asserting that it is already valued in (publicly recognized by investors) might allow a stock split that does not favor insiders? I clearly don't know what I am talking about. Maybe someone who does can help.

Specific questions:

Are stock splits ok with information not fully disbursed/public in that people with private information will "benefit from the split?" Or are splits benefit neutral? Who cares who knows what when they happen?

Is there any NDA associated with being a Beta Tester? Does any NDA mean these people are insiders?

Maybe Elon is asking to avoid trouble.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Interesting that in BC Canada we don’t see an estimated date of arrival on the order page for model Y or 3 anymore. Is that happening everywhere? Or are are we just special?
(Before it disappeared it was showing January).

Might be your browser.

I'm seeing:

SR+3 and LR Y as Feb Delivery
Perf 3 & Y: Nov Delivery
LR 3: December delivery

 

[Open Interest]

OT

Today I learned there was another Tesla company a century ago in Alameda County (where Fremont factory is)...

The Tesla Coal Mine!

Tesla, California

Tesla, California.

www.teslacoalmines.org

Oh the irony.

Wow, what a great find! As a lifelong resident of the Bay Area this astonishes me. I thought the only mining around here was the Black Diamond Mines in Antioch. Thanks for the history lesson!

 

[ZeApelido]

Someone doesn't mince words.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1437162549267533824

 

[Wicket]

"We want to incentivize this. It puts American manufacturers in the lead, which is where we want them, and it reduces emissions faster than any other policy that we could put in place," Representative Dan Kildee, a Michigan Democrat, told Reuters.

He said the new EV tax credit would cost an estimated $33 billion to $34 billion over a decade.

Let's say the average is 10k$ per use. That's estimating 3.3m instances of this getting paid out over 10 years.

The union addendum is bad enough but the sheer inability to reasonably extrapolate the total expense of the program is mindboggling. I have to be missing something here.

 

[azaz]

Cue a bunch of folks surprised that the pro labor union political party wants to reward companies that have union employees lol

 

[OrthoSurg]

Nice video:

Ok, I am officially ready for 3 things.
FSD global release
Robotaxi app announcement
Stock split

 

[Thekiwi]

Senator Munchin on the Sunday news shows today indicating he is not going to allow the $3.5 Trillion spending bill to pass (the one the EV credit is included in) He will vote for something closer to $1-$1.5 Trillion.

Now of course this is posturing on his part, and he likely will vote for something larger than $1.5T, but it seems certain the $3.5T bill has no hope passing in its current form, and so anything in it - including the new tax credit - is likely to suffer downsizing or outright elimination from whatever finally does pass.

Manchin and Sanders interviews highlight uphill battle for infrastructure negotiations

The key power players in the infrastructure debate are very far apart on what Democrats' reconciliation package should look like.

www.axios.com

 

[RobDickinson]

Cue a bunch of folks surprised that the pro labor union political party wants to reward companies that have union employees lol

For building cars the UAW doesnt want to build that the manufacturers build in Mexico...