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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
maybe this was the cause for the recent stock uptick?
Morning Musings #1:
There is a very large revelation here that is quite confusing. A cathode mill for 100 GW/yr is monstrous - triple Tesla’s Gigafactory and the same size as (one of) that GF’s early final production size….
….yet, the accepted reason for the scaled-back size AND the delay in same has been for a lack of available labor.
Now, a cathode mill ought to be far less labor-intensive than a complete battery production facility, so that is an ameliorating factor; regardless, it seems to me that a shortage of hands is a shortage of hands irrespective of anything else. I am, based only upon my having met the two gentlemen, quite certain that Mr Straubel’s departure from Mr Musk’s organization was amicable and calculating, so one might posit that there is a backstory that could involve Panasonic and Tesla’s inability to shake loose from same - a restriction that would not apply to Mr Straubel’s NewCo.
If the above is even partly true, then a shift of employees from Tesla could be one answer to the conundrum.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
I think I have spotted their German factory location - based on their reliance on the cleanest energy source - gravity.
The Zugspitze │ zugspitze.de
Germany’s highest peak lies in the middle of the diverse Wetterstein mountain range. Learn more about the Zugspitze and activities in summer and winter!
zugspitze.de
I feel this aspect is very underapprecuated. Tesla effectively has a functioning and effective discounting for the demand curve. No money - buy a sw limited model. No worries, we're going to get our margin when we sell your trade-in with FSD enabled for the price of a new car or even above it. Legacy auto and their CPO are archaic in comparison.Perhaps @The Accountant , @Artful Dodger or other authoritative people might comment in how soon subscription revenue and vehicle resale will become material:
We have discussed FSD quite a bit but I don't recall Premium Connectivity. The latter now does OTA updates, which were discontinued around 2018 or so IIRC. \Now it not only includes those but also prompts for upgrades within the app. For example, I just did 2021.31.10 for my new Plaid in the app from Brazil. That never has happened before. Perhaps I have missed the significance of that. When added features are happening more often with all the games, Netflix, Spotify Premium etc. the $9.99 per month is becoming compelling. It should be material soon.
Then there are certainly other OTA features on their way, now that ModelS is first, but not last, with very large infotainment and functional features.
In this environment I suspect the NA take rate for Premium connectivity might well exceed 50%. There should be margins close to 80% on that feature, so even, say, a half million subscriptions should yield ~$48 million for next year alone.
We also are beginning to have out-of-warranty parts and service revenue. Even with the onset of new non-Tesla options, the sales of service manuals, parts and service are now material, almost certainly, although they are not disclosed (nor are they disclosed by other OEM's). Further collision parts, and even Tesla collision repair, are now almost certainly material. At the moment I do not know how to estimate those revenues nor margins, but with some work we might make reasonable guesses.
Vehicle resale is now significant, but is about to become very large as lease returns and owner repeat sales with trades begin to grow rapidly, as they are now doing. Some typical US auto dealers used car margins are around 14% pre tax (sources not public data, so I used broad averages from several groups for which I have had data). Tesla current practices seem to imply at least similar margins. Of course the present used car very hot market will not last indefinitely. For that reason I used data from 2000/2005 rather than more recent data too establish likely margins.
These several categories will be joined soon by aftermarket modification sales. Elon recently suggested that aftermarket modification could offer enhancements Tesla would not have scale to justify at factory level. He did NOT imply that Tesla might offer such options in the Tesla store. However, he must be aware of the very attractive profits offers from others like this one:
Almost all the Porsche stuff is built by others. Tesla already dabbles in that, but now they are approaching the options of software upgrades, wheels, tires and cosmetic modifications plus the really big items, retrofitted battery upgrades, motor, and inviter upgrades and more. They have dabbled in those with the very, very profitable Ludicrous upgrade for the P85D and battery upgrades for the original roadster. Of course the OTA acceleration boosts were effictely 100% gross margin, and were very popular because they also were a bargain.
It is time to beak down there categories and try to quantify them. Initially we'll probably struggle, but we are about to see the benefits of all these this quarter, rising very quickly thereafter. At one OEM the aggregate of all these equals more net income than does new vehicle sales. I cannot disclose my source because no OEM actually discloses all of these elements, choosing instead to aggregate them in undescriptive accounts. Anyone who's ever audited a major OEM will be well aware of all these elements.
Morning Musings #2:
Why am I reading of aluminum sheet and aluminum castings in the same sentence? They are as similar to each other - and as useful in their respective milieus - as newsprint is to 6x6 lumber.
Why am I reading of aluminum sheet and aluminum castings in the same sentence? They are as similar to each other - and as useful in their respective milieus - as newsprint is to 6x6 lumber.
Should Tesla franchise their Superchargers out? The new factory can produce 10k a year, that's a LOT of planning and management to deploy, not to mention capital. I'm just starting to think this through but I can see some benefits (and some downsides of course). Oftentimes it's helpful to let the free market have a go at something. Perhaps one location offers juice at cost, but has a really solid convenience store and restaurant, another might upcharge because you have a really nice view of the ocean or something while you charge.
The current system of adding SCs to gas station locations is more of a partnership right?
The current system of adding SCs to gas station locations is more of a partnership right?
Krugerrand
Meow
Didn’t you already hit disagree??
So my theory is that the time is fast approaching (and almost happened a few years ago) that Tesla will simply cede the high priced/premium/luxury/niche whatever you want to call it EV segment to the likes of Lucid, Rivian etc… and hammer down on all the other stuffs on their plate that gets us closer to full sustainability, faster.
If Rivian and Lucid and others of that ilk can’t succeed asap we’re arguably in big do-do because Tesla can’t do it all, fast enough.
The best way for them (the others) to succeed is sell a crap ton of their expensive vehicles and work their way down market with those proceeds. They will not sell the required number of vehicles to do that if Tesla keeps making vehicles for that segment that are a) better in every aspect, and b) less expensive to buy, and c) part of a charging network and a home solar network and, and, and.
Your reason to buy other than an S or X or CT has to be literally aesthetic tastes and you’ve got more money than you need so value for money is meaningless. That market is limited to mostly this forum.
Krugerrand
Meow
And I plan on inviting y’all to the mountain.
The issue with this is that some franchisees will not perform maintenance regularly, so there will be inconsistent availability--just the same as that other network.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Tesla Wants To Launch Full Self-Driving Public Beta In September
There is a chance we may see FSD V10 rolled out to the public by the end of September if V10.1 proves to be a good public beta candidate.
insideevs.com
There seems to be rumblings of FSD Beta showing up in Canada.
Inside EV's is reported on Sept 2nd that Tesla wanting to launch FSD Beta in Canada in September.
The above FSD Beta video appears to be taken in Toronto; and Fred has linked to the same video in an article on his site saying it is also.
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I would venture to say that Elon knows what he’s doing. I trust his judgment on this one.
mickificki
Member
Apparently KoGuan Leo has > 5 mil shares of tsla.
Well, I am normally quarantined to the Wheel thread but figured I would pop in here.
Just spent the morning at the Tesla delivery center in Tampa, FL with a friend who was picking up his new LR Y (ordered in first week of May)
Absolutely perfect car, I like some of the improvements they have made from my 2020 Performance Y.
However.. this is the bad news... while I was there, I watched 4 fully loaded car carriers pull in and a crowd of other people there for the touchless delivery.
All the things, Model 3, Model Y and Model S both Plaid and LR - and both variants with the 19" wheels.
The Tesla advisor said that they have been this way all of this quarter since all production was for N.A. instead of the last 2 months of the quarter.
This is the same advisor that helped me with my Y last year and has been around for 3 years. Said he has never been this busy.
Cheers to the longs - in celebration I bought 100 chairs and a brand spanking new 2024 $500 leap!
Just spent the morning at the Tesla delivery center in Tampa, FL with a friend who was picking up his new LR Y (ordered in first week of May)
Absolutely perfect car, I like some of the improvements they have made from my 2020 Performance Y.
However.. this is the bad news... while I was there, I watched 4 fully loaded car carriers pull in and a crowd of other people there for the touchless delivery.
All the things, Model 3, Model Y and Model S both Plaid and LR - and both variants with the 19" wheels.
The Tesla advisor said that they have been this way all of this quarter since all production was for N.A. instead of the last 2 months of the quarter.
This is the same advisor that helped me with my Y last year and has been around for 3 years. Said he has never been this busy.
Cheers to the longs - in celebration I bought 100 chairs and a brand spanking new 2024 $500 leap!
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woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
The cast of characters in this simulation is fascinating, innit?
Didn’t you already hit disagree??
You wan't another one?
Or with various restrictions and growing costs people will stop buying fossils and turn to Rivian, Lucid, BYD, VW, GM or anyone making EVs since they may want a Tesla but they will continue to be battery restrained and enough people need a new car fast. Interesting times ahead. If your theory is right though I might have to get a cybertruck when my Plaid grows old.
My theory is that switching to EVs will happen faster in other countries than here in Norway. Last month 71% of cars bought here were EVs. I know several people who drive fossils but say their next car will be electric. In my street half the cars are never EVs and half are older fossils. I think Norway will continue to race to the top of the S-curve.
Other countries will race faster since there are more EVs available. And more people in general are aware of their existance than they were in Norway when we started out. So the populations will learn about financial and other benefts of EVs faster. And it will be easier to follow the trend than it was going against the fossil trend. This will benefit all EV makers old and new.
Your reason to buy other than an S or X or CT has to be literally aesthetic tastes and you’ve got more money than you need so value for money is meaningless. That market is limited to mostly this forum.
My friend's TMS inspired me to buy my Tesla. He now want a Taycan (yes
) partly because Teslas are so boring when everybody has one. And I've heard this from others too. They may not be a large percentage of buyers - but they are a percentage of a growing crowd of EV buyers. So I'm surprised if Lucid and Rivian can't manage to get as many customers as Tesla did in their early days.
TheWalkingDad
Cybertruck 23' or bust.
Nice to have 3.7 billion dollars just lying around.
Can you imagine what Q4 will look like?
Elon has telegraphed that q3 will be the last wave and also I believe that they will let q4 inventory spill into q1.
Wouldn’t possible reasons be:
1) Holding back Berlin and Austin production, like they did Shanghai because of poor margins at the low volume.
2) Likelihood of U.S. tax credit taking effect at start of the year.
so if true, Q4 may not be that much better than Q3, correct?
ZachF
Active Member
Some stats for this Wednesday: Final energy consumption; road transportation (2018)
IEA Sankey Diagram
22,383 PJ United States
10,983 PJ China
3,894 PJ India
3,186 PJ Brazil
2,605 PJ Japan
2,252 PJ Canada
2,231 PJ Germany
2,193 PJ Russia
2,170 PJ Mexico
2,010 Pj Indonesia
1,958 PJ Iran
1,867 PJ Saudi Arabia
1,616 PJ United Kingdom
1,387 PJ South Korea
1,373 PJ Italy
1,192 PJ Spain
1,174 PJ Australia
1,104 PJ Thailand
1,075 PJ Turkey
930 PJ Nigeria
902 PJ Poland
831 PJ Malaysia
790 PJ Pakistan
721 PJ South Africa
717 PJ Egypt
687 PJ Argentina
595 PJ Algeria
518 PJ United Arab Emirates
490 PJ Taiwan
472 PJ Iraq
468 PJ Vietnam
460 PJ Venezuela
438 PJ Netherlands
433 PJ Philippines
IEA Sankey Diagram
22,383 PJ United States
10,983 PJ China
3,894 PJ India
3,186 PJ Brazil
2,605 PJ Japan
2,252 PJ Canada
2,231 PJ Germany
2,193 PJ Russia
2,170 PJ Mexico
2,010 Pj Indonesia
1,958 PJ Iran
1,867 PJ Saudi Arabia
1,616 PJ United Kingdom
1,387 PJ South Korea
1,373 PJ Italy
1,192 PJ Spain
1,174 PJ Australia
1,104 PJ Thailand
1,075 PJ Turkey
930 PJ Nigeria
902 PJ Poland
831 PJ Malaysia
790 PJ Pakistan
721 PJ South Africa
717 PJ Egypt
687 PJ Argentina
595 PJ Algeria
518 PJ United Arab Emirates
490 PJ Taiwan
472 PJ Iraq
468 PJ Vietnam
460 PJ Venezuela
438 PJ Netherlands
433 PJ Philippines
She's a car reviewer so it's not her car.Should have bought a Tesla.
And that looks like a stupid charge port door design.
Looks like mainstream EV adoption no longer depends on looks or range, but hinges on a reliable charging network. Tesla to the rescue again...must this company do everything for these 2nd rated engineers from other companies?
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