Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

So, in fairness, Ford seems to have done a credible job with the Mach E. It sounds like they have Plug & Charge working with Electrify America (no app or or whatever needed, just plug in and the car starts charging) and the single FordPass app for other charging networks. That avoids two of the main hurdles: locations (they have multiple networks to draw on) and the absurdities of needing another app with another management and billing scheme for every charger. I believe I heard they were also able to identify some charge stations that were known to not work with the Mach E and remove them from the nav system so the car wouldn't suggest them.

That doesn't help with all the 50 kW locations or broken-down chargers... but it's certainly one of the better moves in a situation where they've missed the boat on rolling out their own charging network.

Footnote: How the plug-and-charge feature in the Ford Mustang Mach-E works

Anyone know why EA chargers are always broken? Like no one uses them and yet they are super unreliable. Have yet to see a road trip video with other EVs on youtube without some EA drama. How is that company still in business? They must spend more on fixing chargers than they make from paying customers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla showed the way, others are following, and there will be additional EV success stories. Rivian will be one of the success stories

RT

People tend to discount how much management skill and perseverance is necessary for a task of the size and scope of the one facing Rivian. This cannot be over-stated. While Scaringe seems like an intelligent and measured CEO, he also unusually private and doesn't have a track record of big endeavors with which to judge his abilities. Remember, the task requires extraordinary effort and long strings of correct decisions. The decisions don't need to seem correct at the time, they need to be correct, as proven over time. This requires exceptional decision making ability. Very smart people fail miserably at tasks far less complex than this. Without more insight into Scaringe's management abilities, his abilities to make decisions in the context of running a large industrial company, one dependent upon high volumes and ruthless cost-cutting without impairing the companies progress, I find your claim that Rivian will be one of the success stories utterly astonishing. We have little insight into what kind of company culture Scaringe has been able to culture behind the closed doors. This matters a lot.

I hope Rivian does succeed but it is far from a given.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla is unlikely to have any volume delivering on Cybertruck for at least another year... and likely another year or more beyond that just to fill pre-orders which are massive.

Musk has made it pretty clear they aren't going to start delivering Cybertrucks until they can have some volume of trucks going out the door. They won't be up to full speed right out the gate, but they will be able to match Rivian or Ford's production numbers in 2023 and will be cranking out 200k+ trucks in 2024.

 

[StealthP3D]

Rivian actually needs the current tax credit to stay the way it is, so they can charge thousands more than TSLA (and maybe make a small profit per vehicle), but the buyer pays the same. If Tesla buyers get the same tax credit as Rivian, it's game over. I know there are a few Tesla haters, but how many people are gonna pay $$$ more for the Rivian when they could save money AND drive a Tesla with the Supercharging network.

Rivian doesn't need to compete with Tesla. Tesla is only less than 2% of the auto market. Rivian needs to compete with ICE vehicles and that is they only reason they have a chance to remain a going concern. Tesla cannot make enough vehicle to fulfill all demand for EV's and that demand keeps growing. It's only in several more years, around 2025-2027, as the EV market starts to become more mature, that Rivian will need to compete with Tesla (and other EV makers). \

Rivian's first two product offerings make it clear that Rivian knows who their competition is.

 

[Don TLR]

Speaking of Bullish AF: We drove the new Model Y down to MotoGP(Motorcycle Races) in Austin and stopped to talk with another Y owner about what he does for charging. Turns out he’s a Tesla Employee who relocated after 6 years at Fremont and happy to share positive news from the factory. Looks like a few different volume output lines of Model Y are being tested right now and other portions of the factory are running now as well, there is a whole lot more going on than we realize. He’s been working on the 3rd gigapress and things are going extremely well all around the factory... He said I hope you’re well invested… Cheers to the Longs..

We’re off the Boca Chica after the races and a visit to the new factory.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note that today's NASDAQ Official Closing Price (NOCP) for TSLA has been updated to $775.22 (was $774.74).

Yahoo! Finance has updated their data, Google Finance still shows the old data.

Lol, that little upwards adjustment buys a nice weekend for me.

Cheers!

 

[Nolimits]

Speaking of Bullish AF: We drove the new Model Y down to MotoGP(Motorcycle Races) in Austin and stopped to talk with another Y owner about what he does for charging. Turns out he’s a Tesla Employee who relocated after 6 years at Fremont and happy to share positive news from the factory. Looks like a few different volume output lines of Model Y are being tested right now and other portions of the factory are running now as well, there is a whole lot more going on than we realize. He’s been working on the 3rd gigapress and things are going extremely well all around the factory... He said I hope you’re well invested… Cheers to the Longs..

We’re off the Boca Chica after the races and a visit to the new factory.

Thanks for sharing!! Great news. Makes me feel better about my chairs I’ve picked up this week. I swore no more over 700. But too much good stuff going forward

 

[st_lopes]

Rivian Plans To Double Vancouver Workforce To 150 By End Of 2021 - Tech Talent Canada

It’s hard to miss Rivian in the mainstream news cycle these days. The electric vehicle automaker just raised a further $2.5 billion from Amazon, Ford Motors, and T. Rowe Price in advance of the planned September deliveries of its long-anticipated R1T electric pickup truck and R1S SUV. But did...

techtalent.ca

While the above article is from 3 months ago, I just saw it now after I walked by this location in Vancouver and saw the Rivian signage the other day. Thought it was curious that their software dev team is going into a rather upscale high retail rent location in a pretty expensive part of town It's the trendy warehouse district called Yaletown.

It used to be a boutique MINI dealership, now replaced by an EV company.

I wonder if they will expand it for use as a retail location at some point ?

Amazon has leased up bunch of new space in downtown Vancouver, and one would think they would leverage the economies of scale and just grabbed another floor in the same high rise in the business district. Shrug.

Polestar, Lucid, Rivian & Tesla now have presence in Vancouver.

These changes are happening faster than people are aware. Positive steps in the right direction for the mission and the planet.

That strip in Yaletown is actually quite popular for Software dev shops. Amazon’s first office in Vancouver was actually a couple doors down from that MINI location. Zillow, Zenefits, SAP, and a few others are on the same couple blocks. So was Avigilon (they used to be in the Microsoft building), until they moved near the Telus building (where Amazon is now) further in to the financial core.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Note that today's NASDAQ Official Closing Price (NOCP) for TSLA has been updated to $775.22 (was $774.74).

Yahoo! Finance has updated their data, Google Finance still shows the old data.

Lol, that little upwards adjustment buys a nice weekend for me.

Cheers!

aHA! I knew with your predictive prowess there HAD to be a little options action going on! Congrats.

 

[Artful Dodger]

aHA! I knew with your predictive prowess there HAD to be a little options action going on! Congrats.

Stats don't lie; that's CNBC's job.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Model 3 LFP Battery + Sandy Visits the ONE Facility | Munro Live

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA's 10-day Moving Average MA(10) is currently about 764.35

Since hedgies generally want at least 10 bucks of churn intraday, and they know the SP is likely to close at at least 775 (see Options Open Interest), they may be targeting the MA(10) for the MMD:

EDIT: Chart updated to 10:20 ET

View attachment 716672

GLTA.

Cheers!

Spot on AD. To the penny.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Spot on AD. To the penny.
View attachment 716919

Sounds like just another cold winter night in New York City to me...

 

[StealthP3D]

So, in fairness, Ford seems to have done a credible job with the Mach E. It sounds like they have Plug & Charge working with Electrify America (no app or or whatever needed, just plug in and the car starts charging) and the single FordPass app for other charging networks. That avoids two of the main hurdles: locations (they have multiple networks to draw on) and the absurdities of needing another app with another management and billing scheme for every charger. I believe I heard they were also able to identify some charge stations that were known to not work with the Mach E and remove them from the nav system so the car wouldn't suggest them.

That doesn't help with all the 50 kW locations or broken-down chargers... but it's certainly one of the better moves in a situation where they've missed the boat on rolling out their own charging network.

Footnote: How the plug-and-charge feature in the Ford Mustang Mach-E works

The webpage you linked to (apparently to illustrate how well Electrify America works with the Mach-e) was a pretty unconvincing propaganda piece. He charged from 75% to "a bit over 80%" in 15 minutes "or so". Or so? Hmmmmm. To me, that means he waited impatiently for it to say 80% and then unplugged. Not exactly a confidence inspiring test. He did mention it would cost "about $37" to fill the Mach-e from empty. That shocked me.

 

[Skipdd]

There is no way Tesla could have done this which would have resulted in minimizing potential injury or bad PR feedback from clowns like this.

If it were random? They'd have bitched just as much or more. If they used your DMV record? They'd have complained about invading privacy.

The Safety Score is flawed, but about as reasonable way you can do this as conceivable.

Well aside from the above suggestion that shareholders get access first. That is totally reasonable.

Just to be clear (since you replied to my post, not the original), I agree with your sentiment. I thought CR report was stupid. It provoked something more in me, which is why I invoked Kurt Vonnegut. It’s like they got so caught up in their mission to promote safety that they went overboard toward something stupid.

 

[Skipdd]

People tend to discount how much management skill and perseverance is necessary for a task of the size and scope of the one facing Rivian. This cannot be over-stated. While Scaringe seems like an intelligent and measured CEO, he also unusually private and doesn't have a track record of big endeavors with which to judge his abilities. Remember, the task requires extraordinary effort and long strings of correct decisions. The decisions don't need to seem correct at the time, they need to be correct, as proven over time. This requires exceptional decision making ability. Very smart people fail miserably at tasks far less complex than this. Without more insight into Scaringe's management abilities, his abilities to make decisions in the context of running a large industrial company, one dependent upon high volumes and ruthless cost-cutting without impairing the companies progress, I find your claim that Rivian will be one of the success stories utterly astonishing. We have little insight into what kind of company culture Scaringe has been able to culture behind the closed doors. This matters a lot.

I hope Rivian does succeed but it is far from a given.

Slightly OT, but related to your post. I went looking in the broader Investors sub-forum for a thread on Tesla management - not the people but the process. I didn’t find one - maybe more seasoned people on this thread can point me to one if it exists. Why? As an investor, I’m interested to understand how Tesla is accomplishing what they are and what will need to change as they scale. There were a number of articles this week about management issues in other companies that caught my attention, e.g, Blue Origin, Apple, and you just postulated the management challenges facing Rivian. As a further thought, such a thread, if it exists, or gets created, will need the insights of a number of posters on this thread who seem to have a lot of relevant experience.

Thanks.

 

[30seconds]

So, in fairness, Ford seems to have done a credible job with the Mach E. It sounds like they have Plug & Charge working with Electrify America (no app or or whatever needed, just plug in and the car starts charging) and the single FordPass app for other charging networks. That avoids two of the main hurdles: locations (they have multiple networks to draw on) and the absurdities of needing another app with another management and billing scheme for every charger. I believe I heard they were also able to identify some charge stations that were known to not work with the Mach E and remove them from the nav system so the car wouldn't suggest them.

That doesn't help with all the 50 kW locations or broken-down chargers... but it's certainly one of the better moves in a situation where they've missed the boat on rolling out their own charging network.

Footnote: How the plug-and-charge feature in the Ford Mustang Mach-E works

credible compared to who and when? I don't think the Mach E is anything near the Y on any attribute other than "not a Tesla."

credible compared to other majors? The Bolt (pre fires) had kind of set that bar, with the ID4 & Hyundai/ Kai about the same as the Mach E.

 

[Gigapress]

Slightly OT, but related to your post. I went looking in the broader Investors sub-forum for a thread on Tesla management - not the people but the process. I didn’t find one - maybe more seasoned people on this thread can point me to one if it exists. Why? As an investor, I’m interested to understand how Tesla is accomplishing what they are and what will need to change as they scale. There were a number of articles this week about management issues in other companies that caught my attention, e.g, Blue Origin, Apple, and you just postulated the management challenges facing Rivian. As a further thought, such a thread, if it exists, or gets created, will need the insights of a number of posters on this thread who seem to have a lot of relevant experience.

Thanks.

Here are some good starting points.

Spoiler: Links

The Cook and the Chef: Musk's Secret Sauce — Wait But Why

The thing I learned from Elon Musk that changed the way I think about life.

waitbutwhy.com

Boring Company

To Do What does the Wright's law curve for Prufrock manufacturing look like? How long can cutting head last? Frequent replacements? Diamond tipped cutter head? Cooling system. Nitrogen? Liquid to gas? How big of outdoor refrigerator? Heat removal on cutting head Use some waste heat from cutting...

docs.google.com

(my Boring Co spreadsheet, see Leadership Philosophy sheet for this topic)

Now 0-for-3, SpaceX's Elon Musk Vows to Make Orbit

Elon Musk briansolis/flickr The third time was definitely not a charm for SpaceX. The spaceflight company run by PayPal founder Elon Musk suffered its third high-profile mishap Saturday when an undisclosed problem caused a rocket launch to fail. The light-lift Falcon 1 was lost after its two...

www.wired.com

Wired.com: How do you maintain your optimism?
Musk: Do I sound optimistic?
Wired.com: Yeah, you always do.
Musk: Optimism, pessimism, **** that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

 

[mltv]

Site Maintenance

Stick a fork in it - GM is done

 

[StealthP3D]

Slightly OT, but related to your post. I went looking in the broader Investors sub-forum for a thread on Tesla management - not the people but the process. I didn’t find one - maybe more seasoned people on this thread can point me to one if it exists. Why? As an investor, I’m interested to understand how Tesla is accomplishing what they are and what will need to change as they scale. There were a number of articles this week about management issues in other companies that caught my attention, e.g, Blue Origin, Apple, and you just postulated the management challenges facing Rivian. As a further thought, such a thread, if it exists, or gets created, will need the insights of a number of posters on this thread who seem to have a lot of relevant experience.

Thanks.

Tesla has a very flat and lean management structure. Elon has said many times that if someone has a better way to do something it doesn't need to go up the chain of command to the department head then over to the relevant department head and then down to the relevant people, you can just walk over to the appropriate person and suggest it be done a better way. If the nature of the problem is best addressed at a higher level, that person, regardless of position, can go directly to relevant executive (or even Elon himself if appropriate). Also, they are very reluctant to create new departments and layers as it's more efficient to simply incorporate whatever it is into an existing department. The best department is no department. I still can't see that they have a public relations department and I don't think they would benefit from one. Maybe some day they will create a small one but I think that day is long way off.

Seniority is not highly regarded, it's more about performance and ability. Tesla tends to hire capable people and let them take charge with a minimum of bureaucracy but what they are doing had better make sense in terms of the overall goals of the company. When making decisions Elon has stressed that employees or management should never hold their tongue simply because someone has less seniority or even less experience in the relevant field. Speak up with your dissent and don't worry that you might expose a lack of knowledge or grasp of the situation.

All meetings are to be kept short, to the point, and only with the people who need to be there. If an employee finds they are in a meeting that is not relevant to them they should get up and leave.

Assuming you have competent people underneath, managements job is greatly simplified and can be accomplished with much smaller teams working together and discussing strategies, problems and solutions rather than micro-managing layers of incompetence below you. As Tesla grows I'm sure Musk will (and has been) making changes to accommodate the growth but always using the same principles. It has to work well, be efficient and keep the lines of communication open.