Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Note that today's NASDAQ Official Closing Price (NOCP) for TSLA has been updated to $775.22 (was $774.74).

Yahoo! Finance has updated their data, Google Finance still shows the old data.

Lol, that little upwards adjustment buys a nice weekend for me.

Cheers!

$775.22, plus 150 million shares changed hands at incrementally higher prices last 8 weeks, since 8/6/2021
(however, since 9/10 some serious discreet accumulation perhaps)
(and i DCA'd 26 more "chairs")

 

[ammulder]

The webpage you linked to (apparently to illustrate how well Electrify America works with the Mach-e) was a pretty unconvincing propaganda piece. He charged from 75% to "a bit over 80%" in 15 minutes "or so". Or so? Hmmmmm. To me, that means he waited impatiently for it to say 80% and then unplugged. Not exactly a confidence inspiring test. He did mention it would cost "about $37" to fill the Mach-e from empty. That shocked me.

The point was not the quality of the testing (just a journalist kicking the tires) or the charge speed (Tesla charge speed also sucks when battery is 80% full)… the point was that Ford got their *sugar* together with EA so you pull up to the charger, plug in, and it starts charging. No messing with apps. That’s the right charging experience!

credible compared to who and when? I don't think the Mach E is anything near the Y on any attribute other than "not a Tesla."

credible compared to other majors? The Bolt (pre fires) had kind of set that bar, with the ID4 & Hyundai/ Kai about the same as the Mach E.

Credible in the realm of companies who have not deployed their own charging networks. I mean, with that EA Plug & Charge you should basically get the Tesla charging experience. Pull up, plug in, it goes. We like to knock on all the non-Tesla’s for their inferior charging network/charging experience, but here’s someone who’s getting it right. (Only for EA, and only for cars like the Mach-E that support it, and only if you pick a high-powered charger, but proof that it can be done.)

hopefully it's now better "working" than in this video"

Yeah, I’m not trying to say the Mach-E is better than a Tesla. And the reason Ford had to dump certain in-network charge stations from their in-car listing was that apparently charge units made by certain manufacturer(s) just didn’t work with the Mach-E. So there were clearly growing pains. I do hope they’re past that now.

We will have to see when Tesla opens the Superchargers to other EVs, will there also be some incompatibilities the first time certain models are tested? It wouldn’t surprise me — it’s like the Microsoft problem of trying to support all the hardware in the universe with Windows. Surely there will be some bugs along the way.

Finally, on a peripherally-related note, when I road-tripped down I-80, there were some Superchargers that were… less than ideal. All the ones I used were old V2 units. One had several plugs that only gave 45 kW (without sharing) so I had to move a couple times to get good charge speed. One in a parking lot with one sit-down restaurant and one gas station nearby and not much else. I’m not really displeased — there was plenty good supercharger coverage, there were still bathrooms available, and there’s the in-car entertainment if there’s nothing around… but it’s not like the Supercharger network is ideal perfection. We can cherry-pick problems with anything.

I like what Ford has done, but my 2nd EV reservation is still for another Tesla.

 

[22522]

My uncle was a big Studebaker fan. He claimed Studebaker was sabotaged by a Ford employee in Studebaker's executive suite. Somehow "Ford" together with Elon's tweet on "sabotage" with the private meeting in the White House made that memory surface.

I think the mission test on actions makes Tesla less vulnerable. "Is that behavior consistent with the mission?"

As does the vertical (we will run you over) integration that takes influence out of the hands of your competitors.

I guess the FUD and fight to get to this point has created structures inside with some "natural" immunity to sabotage.

 

[ZeApelido]

Seen on the internet

 

[nativewolf]

FYI - democrats capitulate to Senator Munchin, with the reconciliation package that contains the EV rebate to be greatly reduced from the original $3.5 Trillion down to somewhere in the $2 Trillion range. no word yet as to where the cuts will come from - but at this stage the EV rebate is very far away from being a certain thing.

'It’s not a success': Dems head home after infrastructure stalemate

Frustrated lawmakers worry their failure to deliver either a deal on a social spending bill or an infrastructure vote could have lasting consequences.

www.politico.com

Biden floats roughly $2 trillion price tag for reconciliation

Biden went to Capitol Hill Friday afternoon to deliver bad news for both moderates and progressives.

www.axios.com

Good, frankly if someone can afford a Lightening or Rivian or Model Y than they can afford it without a subsidy. Plenty of truly needy that could be better served. The more I've examined it the more I feel the subsidy should only be for sub $30k cars. A Leaf would qualify and maybe the least expensive M3

 

[Mengy]

Good, frankly if someone can afford a Lightening or Rivian or Model Y than they can afford it without a subsidy. Plenty of truly needy that could be better served. The more I've examined it the more I feel the subsidy should only be for sub $30k cars. A Leaf would qualify and maybe the least expensive M3

Sub 30K for an EV rebate is not enough in today's market, such a limitation would render the bill worthless.

 

[Singuy]

Was everyone hoodwinked by the media on the Mach E or what?

I agree its 2nd place...but it's not the Ev of the year like some publications are saying.
The following reasons put the Mach E in a distant 2nd.

1. Software Update is so complex and broken dealerships can't even do it.

2. Random charging speed and randomly disconnects as you walk away

3. 80 to 100% charging is only reserved for overnight charging

4. Blue cruise can't take curve turns and turns itself off

5. All of the Mach E are recalled for quality issues

So to some it's the 2nd best because it has decent range and works? But a Tesla had none of the issues above..which are all big freaken deals.

 

[FireMedic]

Sub 30K for an EV rebate is not enough in today's market, such a limitation would render the bill worthless.

I tend to agree with nativewolf on this. Though I think the number could be slightly higher. Like $35k. But really the rebate would push ev manufacturers to hit that price target. That would be about the only thing it accomplishes.

Unfortunately, it would likely include plug-in hybrids which we all know is a joke.

I personally would prefer they throw the whole EV tax credit in the bin and instead focus their efforts on cleaning up our national power grid and subsidizing charging infrastructure and battery production.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is.

When a new CCS vehicle comes out there are usually bugs in the interface between car and DCFCs.

It usually gets resolved in 3-6 months.

By then most of the Utubers that do charging vids have already recorded their vids.

Right. Because why would a company making EVs do any testing of the charging infrastructure they expect customers of their product to use, BEFORE, you know, selling the vehicle to customers? Let customers struggle fueling their cars on road trips for 3-6 months as a way to convince them electric is the future.

@RobStark, the great defender of the ICE OEMs on TMC, all in the name of presenting fair and accurate information.

 

[Mengy]

I tend to agree with nativewolf on this. Though I think the number could be slightly higher. Like $35k. But really the rebate would push ev manufacturers to hit that price target. That would be about the only thing it accomplishes.

Sure but it's easy for many of us on the forums to think this way because most of us have money and are well off. The rebate has to allow people who can't afford an EV to be able to afford one, that's the only way mass EV adoption will accelerate. We only need look to Norway to see how it would play out over time.

That's my belief at least.

 

[Skipdd]

Here are some good starting points.

Spoiler: Links

The Cook and the Chef: Musk's Secret Sauce — Wait But Why

The thing I learned from Elon Musk that changed the way I think about life.

waitbutwhy.com

Boring Company

To Do What does the Wright's law curve for Prufrock manufacturing look like? How long can cutting head last? Frequent replacements? Diamond tipped cutter head? Cooling system. Nitrogen? Liquid to gas? How big of outdoor refrigerator? Heat removal on cutting head Use some waste heat from cutting...

docs.google.com

(my Boring Co spreadsheet, see Leadership Philosophy sheet for this topic)

Now 0-for-3, SpaceX's Elon Musk Vows to Make Orbit

Elon Musk briansolis/flickr The third time was definitely not a charm for SpaceX. The spaceflight company run by PayPal founder Elon Musk suffered its third high-profile mishap Saturday when an undisclosed problem caused a rocket launch to fail. The light-lift Falcon 1 was lost after its two...

www.wired.com

Wired.com: How do you maintain your optimism?
Musk: Do I sound optimistic?
Wired.com: Yeah, you always do.
Musk: Optimism, pessimism, **** that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

Thanks.

 

[Discoducky]

Rob is live on YouTube right now waiting for Q3 #s to be posted.

 

[bruce4000]

Right. Because why would a company making EVs do any testing of the charging infrastructure they expect customers of their product to use, BEFORE, you know, selling the vehicle to customers? Let customers struggle fueling their cars on road trips for 3-6 months as a way to convince them electric is the future.

@RobStark, the great defender of the ICE OEMs on TMC, all in the name of presenting fair and accurate information.

Agree. There should be a testing site where ccs cars and chargers can be taken to run interoperability tests and then given a certification. This is done for railroad equipment, should do for Ev’s if they are serious.

 

[Skipdd]

Tesla has a very flat and lean management structure. Elon has said many times that if someone has a better way to do something it doesn't need to go up the chain of command to the department head then over to the relevant department head and then down to the relevant people, you can just walk over to the appropriate person and suggest it be done a better way. If the nature of the problem is best addressed at a higher level, that person, regardless of position, can go directly to relevant executive (or even Elon himself if appropriate). Also, they are very reluctant to create new departments and layers as it's more efficient to simply incorporate whatever it is into an existing department. The best department is no department. I still can't see that they have a public relations department and I don't think they would benefit from one. Maybe some day they will create a small one but I think that day is long way off.

Seniority is not highly regarded, it's more about performance and ability. Tesla tends to hire capable people and let them take charge with a minimum of bureaucracy but what they are doing had better make sense in terms of the overall goals of the company. When making decisions Elon has stressed that employees or management should never hold their tongue simply because someone has less seniority or even less experience in the relevant field. Speak up with your dissent and don't worry that you might expose a lack of knowledge or grasp of the situation.

All meetings are to be kept short, to the point, and only with the people who need to be there. If an employee finds they are in a meeting that is not relevant to them they should get up and leave.

Assuming you have competent people underneath, managements job is greatly simplified and can be accomplished with much smaller teams working together and discussing strategies, problems and solutions rather than micro-managing layers of incompetence below you. As Tesla grows I'm sure Musk will (and has been) making changes to accommodate the growth but always using the same principles. It has to work well, be efficient and keep the lines of communication open.

Thanks. What I’m curious about is how this is institutionalized, i.e., how do they make this work across all their facilities around the world. How does it scale. Fast forward into some point in the future and Elon is not at the helm - will it be institutionalized so that it remains. The last question isn’t relevant to short term investing. The first two are. And as I said, it might be that this belongs in its own thread. IF at some point Tesla becomes what many project it will be - a juggernaut, then I started thinking about how it remains successful. Other colossuses haven’t stood the test of time. I started my career in one, Ma Bell, with a million employees… not a comparison, though Bell Labs was an awesome place.

 

[Knightshade]

Musk has made it pretty clear they aren't going to start delivering Cybertrucks until they can have some volume of trucks going out the door. They won't be up to full speed right out the gate, but they will be able to match Rivian or Ford's production numbers in 2023 and will be cranking out 200k+ trucks in 2024.

Ok. Let's assume your #s are 100% accurate.

And let's say "only" 50% of CT preorders actually buy (this is lower than did for Model 3, but the deposit was much lower for CT as well).

That means Tesla would be done with just preorders sometime in....2025....longer if more pre-orders "stick"

Seems like a lot of time for Rivian to sell vehicles to other folks who also want a decent EV truck. Especially when their scaling goals seem larger than Fords do for the next few years.


As others have pointed out- the "competition" isn't other EVs as long as production remains constrained, which it will for years to come-- the competition is ICE vehicles.

People aren't going to buy a Rivian instead of their preordered CT. They're going to buy it instead of an Escalade (that just had Supercruise pulled from it BTW) or some other legacy truck that's also expensive but with all the ICE drawbacks including potentially terrible future resale.


Rivian may or may not succeed- but if they fail it won't be for lack of EV truck buyers anytime soon.

 

[T@oo]

WAY WAY OT
from a _1950's_ Readers Digest
(more or less)(may be apocryphyl)(made up)
A Ford and a Soviet ?Lata? had a race.
The ford won quite handily
story reported
The ?lata? came in second, the ford was next to last

Lada.

 

[ZachF]

Sub 30K for an EV rebate is not enough in today's market, such a limitation would render the bill worthless.

How about instead of purchase rebate for an EV they provide purchase rebate for EV electricity consumption, with a slow phaseout?

2022: 100% cost rebate
2023: 90% cost rebate
2024: 80% cost rebate
etc...

I think that would be better than purchase rebates/credits.

 

[Mengy]

How about instead of purchase rebate for an EV they provide purchase rebate for EV electricity consumption, with a slow phaseout?

2022: 100% cost rebate
2023: 90% cost rebate
2024: 80% cost rebate
etc...

I think that would be better than purchase rebates/credits.

The price of electricity isn't the bottleneck to adoption, it's already cheaper than gas. The purchase price of the EV is the bottleneck, thus that is what the bill needs to address.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I tend to agree with nativewolf on this. Though I think the number could be slightly higher. Like $35k. But really the rebate would push ev manufacturers to hit that price target. That would be about the only thing it accomplishes.

Unfortunately, it would likely include plug-in hybrids which we all know is a joke.

I personally would prefer they throw the whole EV tax credit in the bin and instead focus their efforts on cleaning up our national power grid and subsidizing charging infrastructure and battery production.

While there is opinion against plug-in hybrids on this board, if included in the scheme (and recent rumors are they won’t be), they could make a meaningful impact on mpg across the national fleet. Even if they’re only marginally cleaner than ICE vehicles, seems like the reduction in gasoline usage could be positive. Volt owners have usually made an effort to maximize electric miles = gasoline mpg, so it seems like people choosing plug-in over standard hybrids would as well, otherwise why pay the premium?

 

[Buckminster]

Rob Maurer is going to wrap up soon. Tonight is most likely now.