Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Congo Line]

800 BOOM

I suspect someone's gotten a preview of tonight's conference call and knows something something...

 

[22522]

View attachment 718864

I LOVE this setup going into tonight's event.

Very tight BB, we are green, and RSI is not completely out of control (daily and five day).

IMO, only thing stopping this train is a macro disaster.

Have not looked at these in a while, kind of obsessed with product experience and the value chain it takes to produce it...

Cathie is pretty smart. She likely has some dexterity with this chart. And she knows about trampolines as she is moving to Florida, and everyone in Florida knows about trampolines.

Could she have stepped off the active part of the trampoline onto the border, with plans to jump back in at just the right moment - when it would make more of a difference? When accumulation is done, if I am using the term right?

The idea is that the stock is going sideways. There is not a stiff response of price to demand. If she acts at just the right time she could make the stock illiquid causing a stiff response.

To do that her money would need to be in something that acts like cash. Lots of places with a soft response.

This is just one guess on how to process the chart.

I am like a mouse who knows there is risk every time I put money into play. Maybe someone here who actually knows stuff will wade in.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Huh.........this will probably be lost because everyone's posting because of the big move just now.

But I just looked at my portfolio and my options (I hadn't looked at them all week)......and let's just say........LEAPS value increased a ton this week, even though the stock hadn't really moved

That....is very interesting

 

[larmor]

hello, something seems to be happening.

They sold, made, and delivered more cars this past quarter than before and they received money in exchange for this-- its a secret, which no one must know, because the market says tesla has no value since it can't sell and deliver cars for a profit.

 

[Gigapress]

I recall an old obscure interview from like 2008 when Elon was asked "Do you think science and religion can coexist?" and he simply replied "No."

In my opinion, as an investor that's exactly the answer I'm looking for in the CEO of a company because it indicates:

1) Unwillingness to give a political non-answer
2) Drawing the line that empiricism is more important than faith, emotions and tradition when deciding what's true

Both of these traits are critical for someone leading extreme innovation. I hope this does not offend or upset anyone here who is religious but this is actually a foundational element of my investment thesis so I think it's worth sharing.

I want to add to this that my advantage as a retail investor over wall street needs to come from:

A) Having deeper knowledge of a company than a generalist analyst could have
B) Being an engineer with technical knowledge instead of being a finance monkey
C) Being able to include in my thesis information that is socially taboo to discuss in a corporate environment

Regarding (C), my belief is that Elon's irreligiosity and focus on observation as the ground source of all truth is a big factor in why Tesla is so successful. If I had bosses or clients to convince, I would not be able to candidly discuss this in my research notes and arguments. Can you imagine Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs talking about something like this in a research note? Of course not, because they can't talk about it without getting fired. So their valuation models have to exclude this critical information.

Likewise with the earlier years where it was socially taboo to openly believe that electric cars, solar and big batteries were coming fast, not in 2050. To some extent, this is still taboo. Operating outside any institutional setting that inherently pushes for conformity is necessary to identify huge potential and bet big on it.

 

[Singuy]

Somebody got an early look at something.

Reminds me of the price action when Elon tweeted going 420

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Huh.........this will probably be lost because everyone's posting because of the big move just now.

But I just looked at my portfolio and my options (I hadn't looked at them all week)......and let's just say........LEAPS value increased a ton this week, even though the stock hadn't really moved

That....is very interesting

The long and short leg of my call spreads are up today. My long leg is up %10 while the short leg remains flat/green. Something is brewing.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Huh.........this will probably be lost because everyone's posting because of the big move just now.

But I just looked at my portfolio and my options (I hadn't looked at them all week)......and let's just say........LEAPS value increased a ton this week, even though the stock hadn't really moved

That....is very interesting

Yeah, I went from -30% on some LEAPS to +2.25% in the span of about two weeks now. All while the underlying share price has raised about $95. Makes total sense to me.

 

[Boomer19]

I just tried to buy 0.1 shares from my broker Nordnet. It's not allowed.

i meant it’s worth looking into a broker like IBKR or similar, who may allow it.

 

[kbM3]

I want to add to this that my advantage as a retail investor over wall street needs to come from:

A) Having deeper knowledge of a company than a generalist analyst could have
B) Being an engineer with technical knowledge instead of being a finance monkey
C) Being able to include in my thesis information that is socially taboo to discuss in a corporate environment

Regarding (C), my belief is that Elon's irreligiosity and focus on observation as the ground source of all truth is a big factor in why Tesla is so successful. If I had bosses or clients to convince, I would not be able to candidly discuss this in my research notes and arguments. Can you imagine Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs talking about something like this in a research note? Of course not, because they can't talk about it without getting fired. So their valuation models have to exclude this critical information.

Add to those the advantage retail has to take a longer term view that may not be available to large funds that seek great performance every year.

 

[woodisgood]

Filings typically seem to leak around an hour before market close…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The long and short leg of my call spreads are up today. My long leg is up %10 while the short leg remains flat/green. Something is brewing.

Something definitely is.

Though I'm pretty annoyed at this point because then my theory that Wall St was going to flood into Call Options BEFORE they let any volume come back into the stock and raise the actual share price would essentially be exactly what happened.

A retail investor like myself shouldn't be able to telegraph something like that

 

[woodisgood]

Something definitely is.

Though I'm pretty annoyed at this point because then my theory that Wall St was going to flood into Call Options BEFORE they let any volume come back into the stock and raise the actual share price would essentially be exactly what happened.

A retail investor like myself shouldn't be able to telegraph something like that

You’re saying you didn’t trust yourself enough to act on it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You’re saying you didn’t trust yourself enough to act on it?

Hah........I definitely acted on it. Maybe a bit too soon but I've been swapped stock for LEAPS all throughout the year and dramatically increased this method after Q2 earnings (which more than offset my first bought LEAPS back in April being too soon)

It's annoying and relieving at the same time to see it play out this way

 

[StealthP3D]

A dividend you can make a requirement of all shares having to be accounted for.....meaning any shares being naked-shorted have to be returned

A stock buy back doesn't have that requirement so naked shorting could continue, but Tesla would be shrinking the float every quarter. Making it more and more expensive to naked short. It would be continuous pressure on liquidity of shares.

Additionally, a share buyback increases pressure on the shorts by increasing their short position (same number of shares represents a larger portion of the company).

 

[thx1139]

Only thing I can think of for the nice bump up is that I just saw that Tesla Solar is available everywhere in the US now and I just priced out a system for our house in Key West. Good price compared to local company by the way. Also told me about 3 months backlog. You can thank me by taking a look at our rental in Key West and renting it

 

[AimStellar]

 

[jhm]

No they don’t. It’s the other way around, thriving successful companies are the ones who split their stock. The stock split did not make them become a thriving successful company, the stock split was caused by them being successful.

Tesla is a thriving, successful company. Now let's increase the liquidity of shares for small investors!

 

[Sudre]

MM's are in an interesting positions here. Likely spent a huge amount of money over the past 4 days to cap. Do they let all that money spent go to waste?

Which is why I don't think it's them and I do think they're capping in hopes that the shareholders meeting is a dud and they can control the stock tomorrow. I don't think they'll try and stop 800 today, just keep it close enough to try and drop it tomorrow (and hope for a macro sell off)

Edit: Ok who know now. Volume is exploding higher

This does seem kinda leaky but it could also be the MMs letting it run up so they can sell some higher Calls. The balance is way off. Then it will push back down.

 

[GrandEnigma]

View attachment 718874

That is a sizable bet.