Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Why does it feel like the MM manipulation is ALWAYS downward? Why the hell don't they just plan their options for the price to be higher and not fight so hard to keep the price down? It would be way less trouble.

Because MM only manipulates this echo chamber.

 

[larmor]

FWIW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446192403787001869

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446195761679638531

If the latter were true (I seriously doubt it), byebye shorts

Chatted online with tesla sales about a model 3 a month ago. Told them i need the CT asap, and since i'm in Texas, i can come down and help assemble it--- fwiw there was a pause on the chatline (chatbot?) before continuing on about the model 3...

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm no options expert, but wasn't the point that a stock split unwinds illegal naked shorts, not shorts in general?

Yes, but it's debatable whether they can be called "illegal" if they are allowed to exist with impunity. The system has been finagled to accommodate a lot of unsavory behavior as long as Wall Street can make money on it and it happens behind closed doors.

 

[viridi]

MMs obviously fiercely fighting $800. Large capping orders were being put in and pulled as TSLA tried to get above $798. Similar to the bear attack we witnessed last Thursday afternoon.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why does it feel like the MM manipulation is ALWAYS downward? Why the hell don't they just plan their options for the price to be higher and not fight so hard to keep the price down? It would be way less trouble.

Oh, but they do manipulate upwards for relatively brief periods to help them re-position themselves. It's just that people never complain about that!

 

[henchman24]

If it was between a dividend and a stock buy back, hands down I would want the stock buy back. Tesla could always issue more back onto the market a couple years from now at a much higher valuation (and thus less dilution) to fund any growth projects they want.

If Tesla bought back shares around 800-1000 share price and then 2-3 years later issued shares in an offering at a 2 trillion market cap, the net result would be very anti-dilutive for shareholders.

I agree it would be better, but at the current market cap compared with the cash on hand, it also really isn't and effective use of cash. At best they take 5 million shares out of circulation... drop in the bucket to what is outstanding.

IMO those are questions after Austin/Berlin are humming along and the next group of factories are being built (or if robotaxi is an Apple App Store level of cash cow). If cashflow keeps improving at a very rapid rate, and there is no debt... then think about a buyback or dividend. Right now plans for the next factories should be the priority for the cash.

 

[MartinAustin]

Apparently, when the 6th-largest company in the stock market climbs 2% in 25 minutes, just a couple of hours before its Annual General Meeting... that isn't newsworthy enough for CNBC. They even showed a stock graph for a few seconds, when it was $801, but didn't discuss the jump, and showed the year-to-date view, masking today's spectacular jump.

I expect they will show the daily stock graph view about 30 seconds before the market close... that is how they roll.

Meanwhile... looks like the climb is getting erased. I wonder if a rumor had been spreading that was then revealed to be wrong.

 

[jhm]

FWIW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446192403787001869

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446195761679638531

If the latter were true (I seriously doubt it), byebye shorts

I'm hoping that both these rumors are true and that the dividend is actually a Cybertruck! Not sure how the naked shorts will produce said Cybertrucks, but that's not my problem.

 

[StealthP3D]

Manipulators sometimes, by accident, end out manipulating in a fundamentally logical way. Not often, perhaps, but sometimes. Anyway there are a few too many positives for TSLA right now it is probably that they want to load up before the buyers arrive en masse.


The spreads do make this fairly obvious they are jumping the market.
Do we remember back when this stuff was illegal, and often enforced?

No, I've only been involved in the markets for around 30 years. How could I remember that?

 

[MartinAustin]

I dont want or need a dividend, I want tesla to push its mission as hard and fast as possible and they can always use more cash to do that

The "calls for a dividend" could be an attack mechanism by bears. It's something that causes a negative news item whenever it's revealed that there won't be a dividend. This can be repeated as many times a year as it can be engineered - perhaps 4-5 times a year.

It's obvious that Tesla has an important mission concerned with saving humanity... and giving profit money back to shareholders would slow down that mission. I have never expected or hoped for a dividend.

 

[Pezpunk]

I'm no options expert, but wasn't the point that a stock split unwinds illegal naked shorts, not shorts in general?

market makers are explicitly exempted from naked shorting rules by the SEC. it's unethical and dangerous, but it is legal (for them).

 

[goinfraftw]

Apparently, when the 6th-largest company in the stock market climbs 2% in 25 minutes, just a couple of hours before its Annual General Meeting... that isn't newsworthy enough for CNBC. They even showed a stock graph for a few seconds, when it was $801, but they showed the year-to-date view, masking today's spectacular jump.

I expect they will show the daily stock graph view about 30 seconds before the market close... that is how they roll.

Meanwhile... looks like the climb is getting erased. I wonder if a rumor had been spreading that was then revealed to be wrong.

Looks like its 7th?

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

companiesmarketcap.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

MMs obviously fiercely fighting $800. Large capping orders were being put in and pulled as TSLA tried to get above $798. Similar to the bear attack we witnessed last Thursday afternoon.

I'll tip my hat to MM's, that was an epic battle right there. Tomorrow may be the most exciting battle of $6-8 in share price in a long time

 

[woodisgood]

The "calls for a dividend" could be an attack mechanism by bears. It's something that causes a negative news item whenever it's revealed that there won't be a dividend. This can be repeated as many times a year as it can be engineered - perhaps 4-5 times a year.

It's obvious that Tesla has an important mission concerned with saving humanity... and giving profit money back to shareholders would slow down that mission. I have never expected or hoped for a dividend.

Agree - haven’t heard of a single involved shareholder asking for this, so who’s upvoting the question on Say?

EDIT: Maybe fund managers I guess?

 

[MartinAustin]

Looks like its 7th?

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

companiesmarketcap.com

I thought it was the 7th. But this one says it's the 6th. FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!!

50 Largest Companies by Market Cap Today (TOP 50 LIST) • Dogs of the Dow

Up-to-date table of the largest companies by market cap along with a free downloadable Excel spreadsheet with detailed data on each company.

www.dogsofthedow.com

 

[Criscmt]

FWIW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446192403787001869

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446195761679638531

If the latter were true (I seriously doubt it), byebye shorts

I would be very cautious with any such "rumors" from this twitter handle who doesn't hesitate to short, spew negative rumors, "his/her suspicions" for helping with her/his shorting of TSLA.
Does anyone here remember any one such "rumor" primarily from this source that came out true? Not mocking, asking genuinely.

 

[mongo]

I thought it was the 7th. But this one says it's the 6th. FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!! FIGHT!!!

50 Largest Companies by Market Cap Today (TOP 50 LIST) • Dogs of the Dow

Up-to-date table of the largest companies by market cap along with a free downloadable Excel spreadsheet with detailed data on each company.

www.dogsofthedow.com

Saudi Aramco is a non-US company, that's the difference between the two lists.

 

[Ogre]

Right. Which demonstrates that the unfavorable media coverage of Tesla over the years is less about ad dollar influence and more about the journalism community being in a liberal echo chamber. Almost all of my friends are in that bubble, and they have been critical of Tesla and Musk for years. Instead of cheering Tesla for its environmental impact, they focus on a multi billionaire making cars for the rich. Tesla has not done much on the PR front to change that narrative, but I’m not sure it would matter. The echo chamber is so strong that changing a negative narrative is very hard.

But the better journalists will be influenced by very strong facts. Tesla’s recent good quarter in contrast to reduced sales of ICE cars is a wake up call.

Don't even have a clue where you are coming from. I live in a very liberal city and most everyone loves my Tesla, it is quickly becoming the most popular new car. It's also quite huge in the most liberal states and most liberal parts of those states. If there is any political lean to Tesla ownership it is the reverse, very few in red states.

What you say is almost 180 out from reality in my experience.

 

[goinfraftw]

Saudi Aramco is a non-US company, that's the difference between the two lists.

If you click through onto the Tesla individual page, you get it's annual growth since IPO: Tesla (TSLA) - Market capitalization

Some really interesting trending available there.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, but it's debatable whether they can be called "illegal" if they are allowed to exist with impunity. The system has been finagled to accommodate a lot of unsavory behavior as long as Wall Street can make money on it and it happens behind closed doors.

Debatable, yes, but the rules, explicit in the case of the DTC, are written to permit market makers to have rolling fails. Because that, however absurd, is actually documented it is very clear. Paraphasing Richard Nixon 'if a Market Maker (MM) does it it's not illegal'. Although TSLA is far from the only recurrent target, the MM's seem always to prefer targets that are the subject of controversy. Since TSLA offends sever leading industrial companies, it is a perfect target. Manufacturing FUD tends to begin with a 'germ' of truth, but they don't even need that.

Nearly all of us are frustrated and irritated, nowhere near as much as Tesla itself. From my decades in this arena I am certain that no regulatory decision maker knows what is happening. It is hard to understand their ignorance, easier to understand their venality.

Despite all of that, we do know that Tesla is winning customers and credibility. SpaceX, remember, succeeded with all the forces arrayed against it. Tesla has done the same. In the long term we'll still benefit greatly.