A few years ago I was a less of a Tesla bull than I am now. I found the very polarized camps regarding the expected value of TSLA fascinating and indicated an opportunity to make money if I could figure out what side was right. So I read a lot of bull and bear posts and tried to reformulate the arguments and see what counter arguments I got. But I really struggled to find any bear that I had what I thought to be good arguments. Almost all the bears were fishing for arguments, had very little real life experience of driving Teslas or talking with owners and arguments would be all over the place. Often they would loud and argumentative and doing Gish gallops as a way of winning the debate rather than to try to find out how the world was or what would happen.
So the more I tried to get bears to clarify their reasonings, the more bullish I became. If you listen to for example a debate between Rob Mauer and GoJo, you will hear that Gordon talks a lot, moves between topics very quickly and generally sounds very desperate, while Rob is relaxed and confident, talks about each point in turn. We live in a political climate where the GoJo types win elections, which is sad, but they generally are wrong about factually describing reality or prediction the future.
Look at GoJo now, he is predicting 1.5M deliveries for 2021 while claiming that Tesla is not growing. Clearly he will need to confuse his listeners a lot to win that argument. But a bull that is claiming that Tesla is growing and just cites the numbers from previous years and makes a prediction based on just extrapolating current production numbers and adding a little capacity can make that argument without confusing any listeners and without being too upset about any disagreement. No need to use ad hominems, Gish gallops or interrupting to make your case.
So when you are trying to decide if TMC or TSLAQ is a cult, which is a valid sanity check to do now and then, imo don’t only look at the arguments, also look on the form they are being delivered. Are the posters calm and relaxed, are the arguments clear and to the point etc. You would never see a physics professor being upset that his student have alternative viewpoints and start yelling at them, but you will see freshman students being upset with their biology professor for having non-popular viewpoints. The person throwing poop is generally wrong.
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