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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nothingburger in continues in Frankfurt:
@insaneoctane
i have been thinking about that video a lot over last few days.
to me, very simplified answer
Tesla makes ~30 gigawatts/year (gigawatt hours?)
Tesla announced (initial) goal of 3,000 gigawatts/year (3 terawatt/yr) a factor of 100x by 2030
(what if they could do it sooner?)
it’s expensive to build battery factories but Tesla still does (vertical portion)
Tesla says to _entire_ planet portion who make batteries.
“if you build it to our specifications, we will buy it”, for a very long time,
so very consistent revenue stream for at least 10 years, maybe 20, or longer
this has the ?multiple? benefits of co-opting (horizontal integration portion) most everyone else’s expensive battery factories,
“?virtual? expensive factories?” where all you have to do is buy all theoutput so much lower expenses so much faster output
the technology for _storage_ of renewable energy is critical for the growth of renewables of solar and wind and needs to ramp up as fast as possible, so it’s critical to scale up by a factor of 100 and more, storage of renewable electrons, its perhaps like an “inflection point”, so prices of energy is affordable for the entire population of the entire planet, since we _all_ live (or die) at the bottom of a gravity well.
do a google search for night time view of earth and not dark/non-electrified portions.
A lot of the planet needs inexpensive energy/electricity SWB (solar/wind/batteries)
PV has gone in ~60 years from $1,600+watt to 25 cents a watt or so, (late 1950’s when i was younger)
(1974 to now, around $101/watt)
PV good for individuals, wind is industrial scale, batteries, well $1,000/some amount, now closer to $100/some amount, need another factor of 10 or 100
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Macros are positive; TSLA showing some strength w. moderate vol in the early Pre-market:
16,354.75 +27.00 (+0.17%)
As of 5:30AM EST. Market open.
Data last updated Nov 09, 2021 05:30 AM ET.
Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)
CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD16,354.75 +27.00 (+0.17%)
As of 5:30AM EST. Market open.
TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live
This page refreshes every 30 seconds.Data last updated Nov 09, 2021 05:30 AM ET.
| Consolidated Last Sale | $1,186.36 +23.42 (+2.01%) |
|---|---|
| Pre-Market Volume | 123,823 |
| Pre-Market High | $1,187.78 (04:56:48 AM) |
Why the widely accepted belief that Tesla buys cells at razor thin margins or less than other OEMs?
Which OEM mass produces cars with the highest margins and high price? (Most cost flexibility)
Which OEM has been pulling cost out of the rest of the pack? (Increased cost flexibility)
Which OEM has some of the best energy to range numbers? (Less cells per vehicle)
Which OEM has a year plus backlog of energy storage products (less volume and mass constrained, different margin set)
Which OEM has been designing and building cell manufacturing equipment for the next generation(s)of cells? (Reduced supplier cost plus licensing possibilities)
Which OEM has the ability to absorb every cell available? (specification meeting, of course).
Tesla is better served with cell volume over cell level margins.
Tesla may be to the point that they could front a supplier at least part of the cash needed to install new capacity with 100% sales guaranteed for X years. Along with any new cell technology the supplier is willing to integrate.
You want to stay with your current 2170 wet electrode manufacturing setups? Ok, but your line will take more space and power and the cells will have lower performance.
Full turnkey? We'll have the line to you in 4 months.
It can be effectively a money printing machine like installing solar (just higher upkeep).
Which OEM mass produces cars with the highest margins and high price? (Most cost flexibility)
Which OEM has been pulling cost out of the rest of the pack? (Increased cost flexibility)
Which OEM has some of the best energy to range numbers? (Less cells per vehicle)
Which OEM has a year plus backlog of energy storage products (less volume and mass constrained, different margin set)
Which OEM has been designing and building cell manufacturing equipment for the next generation(s)of cells? (Reduced supplier cost plus licensing possibilities)
Which OEM has the ability to absorb every cell available? (specification meeting, of course).
Tesla is better served with cell volume over cell level margins.
Tesla may be to the point that they could front a supplier at least part of the cash needed to install new capacity with 100% sales guaranteed for X years. Along with any new cell technology the supplier is willing to integrate.
You want to stay with your current 2170 wet electrode manufacturing setups? Ok, but your line will take more space and power and the cells will have lower performance.
Full turnkey? We'll have the line to you in 4 months.
It can be effectively a money printing machine like installing solar (just higher upkeep).
I wouldn't think it would effect financials much because they will be either J1772 or CCS. Tesla is expected to come out with a CCS adapter for North America soon. Also it depends on how they are deployed. My guess would be they will be deployed in cities rather than for travel. This could be a good thing if they are deployed where there is little residential charging (e.g. not single family homes). Mostly likely they will be set and forget.
That's great. When I got an estimate it was $500 more.Data point - I drove a friend's new Model S Saturday, simply to confirm our Model X order, which was awaiting our final click. I wanted to make sure we were comfortable with the yoke, all the other changes are easy for people who have owned previous versions of Model S, X, Y and 3.
I know there are lots of opinions, but I LOVED the yoke. Everything about it - turning, sight lines, controls, feeling boss, dreaming of F1 'Drive to Survive', etc. Sold. My friend wasn't sure he liked it, my wife seemed intrigued. Of course we clicked and got estimated delivery of SEPTEMBER. LOL, OMG, WhyTheFace. back up the truck, chips into the center of the table, and all The Accountant's musings on Shanghai production. Yeah, I sold puts and bought calls at 8:35 Monday morning. Was looking good until the last half hour, but still feeling good as I go to bed and await premarket.
And it looks like we'll save $1,000/6 months by moving to Tesla insurance. While happily paying for data, supercharging and some version of FSD.
As always...
...All In.
Faiz Siddiqui has a long history of ant-Tesla WAPO articles. If you follow him on Twitter, he tweets about little else but criticisms of Tesla and Musk.
CLK350
Member
Well, I made sure to remember that this would definitely be a temporary hit, like so many we've seen before, and considering my stated outlook ( reaching between 1300 and 1850 with very high probability by year's end ) - anticipating a low march upwards again - I logically bought more chairs and a few TSLA 03/18/2022 1600.00 C @ 6015 *
Why these .. I've not yet (!) learned enough about options but figured they were as good a way to multiply gains if my thesis does hold. (or multiply losses, otherwise, but c la vie - what's conviction without serious bets behind it?)
BTW anyone care to enlighten me on this particular trade, welcoming the feedback in advance : D
(*) from a Nov 870 call I'd bought a long time ago and cashed in a few weeks earlier.
I recognize the desire to argue political system preference among democracies. understand but find most of it disingenuous:
1. Zeiss continues dominance in microscopes and much in photography. Not consumer. Just don’t try having a root canal without your ondodontist using a zeiss microscope, other applications doing materials defect analysis in aerospace and manufacturing.
2. How does BioNTech fit with Messenger RNA?
3. Airbus and their supplier network are an improbable, always improbable, huge success story. Which would ant sane person prefer? Airbus 320 series, Boeing 737 series?
4. Vestas is perhaps best known, but for wind turbines, the world’s leader.
5. where would Apple be without Foxconn?
6. Acquarias EcoShips, EnergySails are European and Japanese. How fundamental is shipping to environmental health if oceans?
None of these are household consumer names. Each proves innovation thrives in the EU. And elsewhere .Choosing only consumer famous names is highly disingenuous.
Tesla stands as a unique example.
As for Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft…these are creations of the US. Each of them could easily go the way of Kodak or Xerox. Or not, if they can manage to maintain a global outlook.
It is popular to credit a given political/ economic system fot those developments. There in substantial evidence that health care, education and infrastructure are primary factors. If one accepts that premise one must question whether any economic system that allows those three to atrophy can continue to lead in innovation.
From whence comes Tesla largest growth? For that matter how about GM, Microsoft, Apple or Alphabet?
As TSLA investors we need to apply fundamental, dispassionate evaluation of risks and opportunities. Applying any given ideological position to that creates higher risk to accurate understanding. Eschewing nationalistic bias is overwhelmingly difficult.
Excellent Tesla Daily.
TL;DR : Elon's stock sale makes perfect sense, Q4 production exploding.
zzziii
Member
EU wind farms face legal fight to death with stop-at-all-costs opponents: study
Developers in France, Spain and Germany see challenges aiming to 'prevent construction under all circumstances' regardless of merits of projectsIt concerns me that this seems to be a broader strategy that we are seing impacting Giga Berlin.
Previously, I wasn’t much on the split train because of Musk’s comments.
Not so sure now…
Not so sure now…
This is in no way comparable - this is for onshore Wind where local population (rightly) do not want wind turbines in view of their homes, or built in protected nature areas.
Onshore wind is not the answer. Offshore is where you need to go, however it is orders of magnitude more difficult, expensive and complex.
Source: I worked in wind industry for 4 years (blade manufacturing and cementicious grouting)
Tesla Grünheide is being blocked by ICE-funded “green” groups who’s singular goal is to block or slow down their donor’s competitor.
Superman ll movie from the 80s. Now please ELI5.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Morning dose of Tesla Economist while we wait patiently for the SP to eclipse 1300
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The Accountant
Active Member
I’m still confused regarding this tweet. What on earth?
I guess if he posted a picture of Split Enz it would be too obvious.
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