Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Thanks for the picture. This has been my concern for a while. They are going to loose capacity and piss off a lot of Tesla owners.

Maybe they will only open at stations that are way underutilized.

Maybe they will sell car specific adaptors which they will need in the US anyway as the superchargers here do not have CCS cables.

Don't forget Tesla is planning to TRIPLE the number of Superchargers in the medium term. They are well aware of this concern and I'm sure they'll take care of it. They're not going to alienate their own customers.

 

[FireMedic]

Thanks for the picture. This has been my concern for a while. They are going to loose capacity and piss off a lot of Tesla owners.

Maybe they will only open at stations that are way underutilized.

Maybe they will sell car specific adaptors which they will need in the US anyway as the superchargers here do not have CCS cables.

I’m actually not too concerned about this. To be fair we do vast majority of our charging at home >95%, despite having lifetime free SC.

I feel like they’ve managed the SC network incredibly well… TESLA intends to triple the network in the next two years.

Also this new incredibly large volume of vehicles being sold charge faster than what most of us drive around in anyway.

Finally the increased income stream will allow Tesla to accelerate the deployment of SC’s.

Take a deep breath, it’ll all be fine; it’s the right thing to do, and it’s in pursuit of the mission.

 

[ThisStockGood]

TSLA be like $1,170. Shorts be like

 

[ZachF]

 

[jbcarioca]

FWIW, my new Plaid has never been Supercharged. It has been on a number fo trips, but Destination chargers have done the job. Now that the best ranges of Tesla tend to reach the typical daily drive of many customers I'll wager Supercharger use, per capita of Tesla owners, tend to reduce.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

There's too much hysteria here in Europe about opening up the SuC network.
It's good for everyone in the long term.
Some Tesla owners are being very self-centred.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455029702675009536

 

[mars_or_bust]

Regarding sharing of the superchargers - it is a great development for many reasons. Among other(some have been mentioned):
- Great Tesla PR to the target audience. They may have bought a ID4 now, but the constant Tesla app PR, and the knowledge they only have access to part of the network will easily lead to the next purchase to be a Tesla.
- Charging patterns of individual car types can give Tesla probably very valuable information of non-Tesla car types - their usage, ranges, habits, etc. This could lead to focus of showroom centers in particular locations, perhaps even individualized adds on the Tesla app for these users for purchase of Tesla cars.
- It disentivises any other company making their own network, handing to Tesla an effective monopoly on the charging network. More great PR, more large profit form outside Tesla.
- Having a monopoly on the charging network would make the creation of a Tesla food chain at chargers very profitable indeed. This has been hinted, and I would not be surprised if it happens in a few years, perhaps with TeslaBots as waiters. This would also be a great advertisement and practical demonstration for TeslaBots - think how great the Boring company is a great advertisement for Teslas.

Also, it defuses a lot of anti-Tesla sentiment and tension. Tesla this way is not anymore, in the eyes of the public and the politicians, an exclusive cult, but a cult that all can participate in. Of course, to get to the highest Level, one must purchase a Tesla....

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla blog post with information on opening the Superchargers:

Non-Tesla Supercharger Pilot | Tesla Support

Launched in November 2021, our Non-Tesla Supercharger pilot will continue to expand to new sites and countries in support of our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

www.tesla.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

is anyone concerned that long term this could put a big dent in Tesla sales anti-trust suit?

FTFY. Tesla needs to stay true to its Mission, not its money.

Word.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

11/5 call option volume appears fairly absurd to me today, can someone confirm?

89K @ $1200
39k @ $1250
33k @ $1300
15k @ $1400

Is this the wsb crowd trying to squeeze or is this relatively normal volume for a volatile non-summer day?

 

[Gigapress]

No camping at $1170. Repeat, no camping at $1170.

Next camp out at $1700.

Can we please at least stop to eat lunch at $1420.69?

 

[Coolio2000]

there was news that a lot of hedge Funds bought Tesla before the new run up .... would mean less selling pressure.

When wars were lost in the old days, the bards and poets on the losing side were forced to sing praises of the winning King for economic reasons and as well as not getting their heads chopped off History will repeat

 

[lafrisbee]

I never entertained that "Crazy Times" could be good times?

 

[Todd Burch]

Can't wait to see @The Accountant 's estimates for the revenue that opening up Superchargers will bring to Tesla...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla blog post with information on opening the Superchargers:

Non-Tesla Supercharger Pilot | Tesla Support

Launched in November 2021, our Non-Tesla Supercharger pilot will continue to expand to new sites and countries in support of our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

www.tesla.com

Does the Supercharger cable reach all EVs?
Certain Supercharger site layouts may not be suitable for some cars. Please do not obstruct other cars by parking over the lines if the cable cannot comfortably reach your car.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

True, but Tesla's corporate bylaws issue the BoD to issue up to 20% more shares than currently authorized, so a 2:1 split is technically possibly prior to a general shareholders vote.

There are a number of factors to consider, some or all my apply in the event. I think Tesla holds off until:

1. Elon's 2018 shares have been issued (no reason to spike his tax bill in advance)
2. Short-sellers put another "Burry" on TSLA; Yank their chains HARD (no mercy)
3. DJIA/DOW-30 addition is imminent (requires the SP to be in a ~$100-200 range)
4. Tesla *may* decide that a Cap Raise is advantageous; Split triggers a prior runup

So there are technical reasons to hold off on a split, but I'll add this psychological reason to the matrix: the mere POSSIBILITY of a 2:1 split (or a 5:1, or a 10:1 split) is like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the shortzes. They are genuinely FRIGHTENED for their future is Tesla does another Share Dividend and the have to fight eachother and the momo traders for each increasingly valuable share.

Extending this period of fear, uncertainty and doubt for short sellers is Schadenfreude of the highest order: Well worth the time.

Cheers!

Tesla could drag this out and effectively end any naked shorting if they wanted to.

Month one: Elon tweets: Board has started discussing a split.
Month three: Board is asking share holders to approve more shares.
Month five: Tweet: We will possibly announce a split in a little while
Month seven: Announce a split about a month in advance
Month eight: Split happens

So why don't Tesla do some version of this? At the moment there is no real upside for Tesla if the SP skyrockets. Don't think it's all about Elons shares/tax. Think of all the current employees that might retire if they get too rich. Actually, I think this is already happening. For example, a lot of the software guys that has been on the FSD team for years probably has a very healthy account right now. We don't want them retiring. Also, all new employees getting shares will make less if they start at a high price so that will be less of a draw for new employees.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Posted this in the Other Thread to maintain perspective.

TSLA is up 29.55% from it's January highs. (Higher now since originally posted )
SPY is up 22.89% year-to-date.

This is wild, but it's 90% about market makers pushing the stock down since April. They created this inevitable spring unloading over the long summer months of naked shorting to keep things in line while the big boys sat on the beach. I'm sure the SEC is looking into it so we don't have so much +/-5% volatility in $1T+ market cap companies.

 

[StealthP3D]

Worse than giving away a Tesla moot to other EV companies is that many of their EVs are not suitable for charging at a Tesla supercharger. Their charge ports are situated in such a way that they have to occupy two spots to even be able to reach the socket with the charging cable. Among them the E-Tron (left in the picture below), Taycan (second from the left), ID.3 (right) and ID.4. Second from the right is a Model 3. The ID.3 and ID.4 have their charging port on the wrong side, which means no other car can charge next to them.

This isn't a problem for Tesla as much as it is for cars that have ports in incompatible locations. It looks like demand for those EV's will take a hit when people figure it out. It seems Tesla could charge them idle fees if there is no way to plug into a given stall without occupying the adjacent space. I mean, it's not like Tesla doesn't know where the charge port is on every car that ID's itself to the network and whether the charger is plugged into the car natively or with an extension.

 

[vwman111]

Jan 2023 500 put goes for 25 bucks and change. That is exactly how much time value you're leaving on the table.

If you have no tax considerations, it is a way better idea to sell the call and buy the shares with the proceeds + the money you were going to use to exercise the options.

Another option is to sell the Jan 2023 put at the same strike and pocket the cash. Come that time, you will own the stock regardless of the price. Above 500, your stock call gets exercised. Below 500 the owner of the put will exercise their right to put shares to you. This position is called a "synthetic" and is practically equivalent to owning the stock. This is often times called the put call parity.

The only scenario where this early exercise makes sense is if you're looking to start your long-term capital gains tax clock in the US. But since you're not US based, you should probably hit up someone familiar with the rules in your country.

PS: The deep out of the money puts IMO are a good deal to sell. The put prices remained firm as IV shot up along with higher stock price. Conversely early exercise now means you do leave significant amount of money on the table.

OP looping back in, thank you for all of the insight. I likely should have been more specific with my details. Jun 22 300, so deep deep ITM. Next to know extrinsic value left.

The leaps are more leveraged than owning the stock, i have lost the additional leverage from a ATM leap.

I will exercise at some point, as the tax on the gain will be large. I can basically find the funds to exercise or find the funds to pay the tax which is why i'm going the exercise route.

assuming i can find the funds, tying up the funds now in an exercise would be viewed as as disadvantage since i'm getting all of the performance of the shares from the leveraged position.

Exercising now would provide additional margin in the account for other trades, purchase more shares or leaps, sell puts, etc...

I'm leaning towards exercising for the shares now and creating margin for opportunistic investments in TSLA maybe a nice solid pullback before we rocket to $2000