Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Automotive News - yesterday: Stellantis to lay off about 400 workers at Jeep Cherokee plant in Ill.

Excerpt:

..."As we continue to balance global sales with production of the Jeep Cherokee produced at the Belvidere Assembly Plant, which has been further exacerbated by the unprecedented global microchip shortage, Stellantis has determined that additional staffing actions are needed as a result of changes in the plant's operations," the automaker said in a statement...

AutoForecast Solutions is expecting production of the Dodge Challenger and Charger muscle cars to move to Belvidere in 2024. Those redesigned models would be on Stellantis' electrified STLA Large platform.

AutoForecast Solutions also predicts that a new electrified Chrysler crossover will be produced alongside the next-generation muscle cars in Belvidere on the same platform.

 

[MXWing]

While its true that Tesla will likely be confined to the Solar system for some number of Centuries, the mere GLOBE is just a fraction of their TAM in the coming decades (no, not the coming Century). Mars, NEO asteroid mining, and in-situ resource extraction on the moon of the gas- and ice-giants.

Long-term, however, I do expect Tesla to put 'bots on Exo-planets. In prep for our arrival, you understand.

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

You know Bernie is gonna download his brain via neuralink to a Tesla robot so he can keep fing with Elon centuries from now.
QUADRILLIONAIRE's shouldn't exist!

Has anyone taken ANY stab at how much Tesla Robot(s) in homes and companies are worth?

The 'Dean of Valuation' has zero mention of robot business when valuating Tesla.

Tesla's Trillion Dollar Moment: A Valuation Revisit!

A blog about markets, finance and all things money related.

aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com

 

[StealthP3D]

We also banned COVID talk in this thread, the largest buying opportunity in recent times was directly related to that very topic,

Maybe you forgot but COVID talk focused on how scary it was and how it would negatively impact TSLA. The only reason COVID became a buying opportunity was because people briefly bought into that idea. The COVID dip only lasted a month and yet the concern over it from a TSLA investment perspective caused many participants of the COVID thread to take a lot of money off the table and lose millions of dollars worth of pure, easy profit.

I liked to say there was a strong negative correlation between how much time an investor spent on the COVID thread and their net worth.

 

[jbcarioca]

That's a really good big picture look at investment risks. Especially impressive is how you got all the way through it without mentioning poetry. Not sure how you did that.

I'd have had to quote Edgar Allen Poe or maybe even Emily Dickenson and nobody would want to be that depressing.
After all, I am an optimist. As a serial early adopter I need to be. Luckily for me my Teslas have been far to reliable and predictable to be early adopter stuff.
Just try an NSU Ro80, Posche 964, any Maserati, a Rover 2000TC. Those do require sad depressed poetry, or even the Hemingway solution!

 

[capster]

So, even if Tesla screwed up with the contract, should JPM be allowed to act in such a manner?

Not looking for an answer. It’s rhetorical.

If everyone would just choose to do the right thing, overnight the world would be a very different place.

This might actually be an opportunity for Elon and Tesla.

What if all of JPMorgan’s behavior, which was likely mostly stinky, in the 2018-2021 timeframe wrt to Tesla and TSLA were subject to discovery in a trial? Given that this involves Tesla and Elon, there’ll be lots of press. The publishers will also be pandering to folks who loathe investment bankers more than they resent Elon’s success.

You’d think JPMorgan would consider it a bargain to pay $162 million to keep all that from the light of day. I am going to guess that the Golden Sacks and others will steer clear of this.

Were all the shenanigans to come to light in a very public way, we might even see some action from the SEC to reign in the Wall Street hustlers. Okay, probably not, but one can hope.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Such reactions do concern me. Perhaps the largest single risk with TSLA is the ancillary impacts of volatility. High volatility tied to a 'story stock' accentuates the risk. People who have temporary success, often for extended periods of multiple years, grow to have high confidence in their laity to understand how to capitalize on MMD, triple witching hours and all the myriad technical 'measures of merit'. When one hugely successful person is prominent many of us forget about Tony de Angelis, Bernie Madoff, Long Term Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, AIG and all the others. That invariably ends out poorly, sometime... even though precise timing tends to be difficult or even impossible.

With Tesla (and SpaceX) we have a genuine defining moment which has gigantic potential. Others that did similar things in industrial terms included McCormick, Ford, Edison, Westinghouse but also Xerox, Kodak and what ended out as Penn Central. All those are just a handful of US examples.

Stories fit right in with all of these, just as they do with Tesla. Oddly, perhaps, all of them also went through periods of high volatility that made and lost fortunes.
The ones who lost rarely did so without taking margin loans and pursuing 'technical' approaches. Or course a few of us keep pointing out this risks and @AudubonB
even shared family history.

While in graduate school I studied under one of those Nobel Prize winners. I even had a seminar from the FOMC secretary when Nixon dropped the ax that helped initiate the 1973 oil crisis. Luckily for me I made my losses almost instantly so they were both small and no permanent blots. To my chagrin when observing the beginnings of the 2008 events I could not convince my then largest client not to buy a huge mortgage originator (option ARM, anybody?) and a famous name investment bank. Luckily for them The ever handy Secretary fo the Treasury and his cohorts fount how to bail them all out. The personal investors were largely annihilated.

Now many of us are giddy with our recent speculative successes. The most technically oriented among us should know that the only people with a true stop-loss are the market makers, for they own the casino. The best individual talent will end out ruing the day. Why? Listen to all of you. Some is good, more is better, only too much is enough. If that colloquialism is too inadequate then ask yourself if you know what the 'boundary conditions' are for your most trusted quantitative techniques. 'boundary conditions' are those distressing results you'll find out about when the future departs the path of the recent past.

Unpredicted earthquakes, floods and fires happen. Supply chain disruptions happen. Accidental death happens. Every one of those can and does trigger departure from historical patterns. Of course I have not mentioned political and regulatory risks. That is the part of history that the vast majority of investors totally ignore. After all it is boring to talk of AT&T, Standard Oil, and so many others. It's much more fun to imagine that Tesla will end out dominating the world vehicular and energy markets.

I am a Tesla bull. I also ensure that no single investment choice can act to destroy my well-being. Foolish advisors do not understand what diversification actually means because they cannot understand how to hedge risk. Their hedges often increase risk rather than reducing it.

With nearly 85% in TSLA chairs, I also worry about a correction on the macro or TSLA like an FSD event. The arguments I've heard - to consolidate investments in Tesla is that Tesla is already diversified, all true, except it's also just one company. So to your point, risky stuff depending how you trade especially.

I know TSLA could drop to 500 or more on some seriously difficult situations, so volatility implied. But if the macro lets go, then that diversification strategy is useless anyway (unless you're hedging against a crash in other ways like bitcoin, food, or water for example). Because Tesla is the fastest innovator on the planet, bar none, the probability of investment success seems best with them, plus they aligns with my own goals (or I aligned with theirs?).

So. Do you surf a bunch of little waves or pick the nice big one for the full ride to shore? That big wave that's got room to grow, and with momentum and steadiness to overcome the chop along the way. Always the risk of an undertow, but one hell of a ride!

For me, it's boiling down to using cash as a hedge which gives opportunity for bargain prices or to just use to survive on a doomsday scenario. And if we have to pump water by hand out of the ground soon in Az, I'll have the best pump there is with tons of solar power! If I really had to, I could sell a few shares, yes at 500 or lower if things got that crazy, and yet no more crazy than buying at 1,100 recently.

Face it, Transportation, Energy, and Workers are all kinda critical no matter what happens. And if Tesla tanks, we're pretty much all screwed even worse. But I do recommend a Plan B for everyone and to consider those "boundary conditions", from the sharks circling to that whale showing up out of the blue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why this position either is dangerous, mere fatuous pap, or both, is instantly demonstrable to everyone. Just replace Mr Musk with your favorite-to-hate politician and think about why this is so. ==>It IS a big deal.<==

Every person stands on their own unique merits. If one must judge another then judging should be done on the individual’s merits not compared to some ‘pick a name from a hat’ person and aha! See, I made my point.

Surely, you’re not claiming that any ole politician is instantaneously endowed of the same merits as Elon Musk (and thusly should be judged as an equal) simply because they have money, power, fame/infamy et al?

Observationally, you don’t seem to care if you offend anyone here. While you don’t wield the power or influence of Elon Musk or many a politician, you certainly are in a position of power. So -

 

[Curt Renz]

I suspect that much of the trading described in the article involves TSLA shareholders who wrote covered call options. Some may have been inspired to do this by Gary Black's tweets. What many don't realize is that writing (selling) calls impels market makers to buy them and hedge by selling shares. That can put downward pressure on the share price. Once Elon is done selling shares, I'd expect loads of covered calls to be bought back, and the lid removed from the share price.

Benzinga - 24 minutes ago: Tesla Whale Trades For November 16

Excerpt:

If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is accurate to state that 44.7% of the investors opened trades with bullish expectations and 55.3% with bearish.

 

[MABMAB]

On moderation: Folks post too much and should focus on what is really important. How? Post once a day, or every three days. Then maybe once a week...otherwise it is not discussing TSLA as an investment but all the gooblydeedoo on the periphery.

It is kind of like the speakers method of whispering to get everyone to listen.

Or, the talking heads on TV, filling the airwaves with dribble around the clock. Really all one needs is a brief snippet, like what comes in a weekly news magazine (The Economist here).

Or else, this forum should really be renamed as the bar room basement.

 

[bhzmark]

Any nonprofit funding by Elon would most efficiently be done by a contribution of the most highly appreciated securities because he then gets the double tax savings of the deduction of the fair market value of the securities as well as avoid any taxation on the unrealized gains on the shares. Donating shares is much better than selling shares and donating after tax money.

If you want to donate $100 funded by shares, your options are:

1) donate $100 of shares and take a $100 deduction and no additional taxable income on the unrealized gains
2) sell shares worth $122 generating (assume a $12 basis so $110 in taxable gains leaving ($122 proceeds - $22 LTCG tax = ) $100 after tax cash to donate with a $100 deduction.

All of us should be doing any charitable giving by donating appreciated securities to the charity of choice, or better to a DAF for later designation to multiple charities.

If you want to keep your total TSLA exposure and still donate, then just use other money (that you would have donated) to buy more new high basis shares.

If Elon donates billions of appreciated TSLA to a DAF or any other charity, thereby avoiding capital gains tax, there will be a shitstorm, but it would be amusing.

I figured out what Elon should do. (obv I am not qualified to advise anyone, let alone billionaires so not advice )

1. Create a non-profit with the charter to build an Engineering and Technology university with ties to Tesla and SpaceX
2. Buy land (or use the land he already owns around Austin) and donate it to the non-profit.
3. Take big tax deduction.
4. Publicly comment that he would rather the cash go to a good cause than the government.
5. Offer free tuition to top tier students if they study certain disciplines.

This would accomplish many of his goals. He would flank the Sanders crowd on the left, making them look foolish "Capitalism provides free education, socialism surrenders". It would lower his tax bill and maybe provide some goodwill. And it would also ensure a steady supply of quality engineers for his companies.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Has anyone taken ANY stab at how much Tesla Robot(s) in homes and companies are worth?

Yeah. Warren Redlich made this the topic of a recent video:

Tesla Bot Makes $TSLA a $100,000 Stock?

Elon is not only going to solve (not tackle) "World Hunger", he's going after "Labor limits", and then its Big Brother, "Scarcity".

People should fear the short side.

Truly.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wonder if we'll actually break 1,057 today. Seems to be a clear effort to keep it from breaking the high from this morning....each time it get's close to testing it, stock gets hit with sell orders (this while the Nasdaq and other EV stocks continued to move higher throughout the day).

Btw, we should all be cheering the Rivian valuation........cause it makes Tesla hella cheap in comparison

Edit: Yup there's the push back down.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why this position either is dangerous, mere fatuous pap, or both, is instantly demonstrable to everyone. Just replace Mr Musk with your favorite-to-hate politician and think about why this is so. ==>It IS a big deal.<==

Every person stands on their own unique merits. If one must judge another then judging should be done on the individual’s merits not compared to some ‘pick a name from a hat’ person and aha! See, I made my point.

Surely, you’re not claiming that any ole politician is instantaneously endowed of the same merits as Elon Musk (and thusly should be judged as an equal) simply because they have money, power, fame/infamy et al?

Observationally, you don’t seem to care if you offend anyone here. While you don’t wield the power or influence of Elon Musk or many a politician, you certainly are in a position of power. So -

 

[AudubonB]

Any nonprofit funding by Elon should be done by a contribution of the most highly appreciated securities because he then gets the double tax savings of the deduction of the fair market value of the securities as well as avoid any taxation on the unrealized gains on the shares. Donating shares is much better than selling shares and donating after tax money.

If you want to donate $100 funded by shares, your options are:

1) donate $100 of shares and take a $100 deduction and no additional taxable income on the unrealized gains
2) sell shares worth $122 generating (assume a $12 basis so $110 in taxable gains leaving ($122 proceeds - $22 LTCG tax = ) $100 after tax cash to donate with a $100 deduction.

All of us should be doing any charitable giving by donating appreciated securities to the charity of choice, or better to a DAF for later designation to multiple charities.

If you want to keep your total TSLA exposure and still donate, then just use other money (that you would have donated) to buy more new high basis shares.

If Elon donates billions of appreciated TSLA to a DAF or any other charity, thereby avoiding capital gains tax, there will be a shitstorm, but it would be amusing.

Why it is people are using this platform to tell Elon what he should be doing with his finances is beyond me.

 

[bhzmark]

Why it is people are using this platform to tell Elon what he should be doing neigh his finances is beyond me.

Why it is that people pollute this good thread with unproductive immature complaining is beyond me.

My post was a reply to someone else discussing Elon’s potential nonprofit funding and I speculated how that might work, and mostly gave ideas to other people with highly appreciated securities (i.e., TSLA investors).

Please put me on ignore and I’ll do the same to your ill tempered unconstructive complaining.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

TSLA stock will be moving up soon. How do I know?
The thread has reached "peak cranky" We're all (mostly) friends here, remember?

 

[AudubonB]

Why it is that people pollute this good thread with unproductive immature complaining like this is beyond me.

My post was a reply to someone else discussing Elon’s potential nonprofit funding and I speculated how that might work, and mostly gave ideas to other people with highly appreciated securities.

Please put me on ignore and I’ll do the same to your ill tempered unconstructive complaining.

What you wrote WAS productive - when you couched it as a means by which hoi polloi can structure their financial planning. But when you began it by proclaiming what Mr Musk should be doing you crossed over into bloviating uselessness.

 

[3'sterly]

On moderation: Folks post too much and should focus on what is really important. How? Post once a day, or every three days. Then maybe once a week...otherwise it is not discussing TSLA as an investment but all the gooblydeedoo on the periphery.

It is kind of like the speakers method of whispering to get everyone to listen.

I agree. I been thinking about posting something similar.
I was waiting, following my other method to reduce random chattering, sit back awhile, read until I’m caught up on the thread and see if some other fart has already posted what I wanted to add.
That usually does the trick.
Thanks all.
And to quote an old favorite say about self control.
“Nothing in excess,
Even moderation “

 

[StealthP3D]

Why this position either is dangerous, mere fatuous pap, or both, is instantly demonstrable to everyone. Just replace Mr Musk with your favorite-to-hate politician and think about why this is so. ==>It IS a big deal.<==

I disagree. It is literally impossible to tell the truth and not offend some of the people, some of the time. The difference between a "favorite-to-hate politician" and Elon is that Elon tends to be heavily biased towards the plain truth.

Those who empower those people by bowing down to their sensitivities, by tip-toeing through the tulips, do so because they are speaking from a position of weakness. I don't see Elon as egotistical, I think he appears that way to some because he speaks from a position of power. If anything, his ego is somewhat smaller than his actual accomplishments and understanding of the world justify.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Sat in a Mach-E last night. The first thing the driver mentioned was how great the EV experience was overall, and how there was no way they'd ever buy a gas car again. The benefits and conveniences inherent to an EV are instantly obvious to anyone who owns one, and yet they remain a tough sell to the uninformed. Word of mouth is the best salesman. Adoption will snowball and continue to be limited purely by cell supply.

Anyway, I was kind and complimentary -- absolutely no point in shilling for Tesla to someone who literally just bought a car. But the experience left me even more bullish that ever on Tesla. The UI compared extremely unfavorably to my 2016 Model S, and the range and performance were on par with a 2014 Model S.

Are you me? I had the exact same experience! The exception was that my 2016 MS was parked behind the Mach-E and I had to move it out of the way so we could pull out of the driveway, it was the one time I actually used 'Summon' in a meaningful way (To move the car up about 10 feet to get it out of the way, not to show off) and it blew the mind of the Mach-E owner.

After riding in "the competition" I now see even clearer that Tesla lead is unassailable.