Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tho I have to say, valuation for any company no longer matters as the market sentiment is

1. If we like the stock, stock will remain high(look at AMC/GME, still at record levels).

2. Find a stock we really don't understand how the valuation is calculated but look ridiculous on paper, and ridiculous at the the gains it generated in such a short time so therefore other companies like it will do the same.

So I say enjoy the volatility. One Rivian fire and we can see marketcap get sliced in half...unless apes strong together. Still miles better than putting money into cum rocket coins. Entire market is turning into some kind of musical chair thanks to junk coins, meme stocks, and Tesla.

Rivian and Lucid will go the same way as Nio.

Nio had a crazy valuation in relation to Tesla's back in January but as soon as Nio had to start actually performing against Tesla (in the China market) and it became clear that not only was Nio not keeping pace with Tesla's growth, they were/are actually falling behind continually on a quarterly basis. They need to be posting growth of 3-4X Tesla's just to keep pace.

But in reality as we've seen in the past 2 quarters, Nio's growth rate really isn't that much higher than Tesla's on a YoY basis and on a quarterly basis, Tesla's growth has actually been better. The shine has quickly come off of the "Nio growth story".

 

[Accident]

RIVN up 15%, LCID 22%

Good for the early investors, but this adds risks to the entire sector. Hopefully whenever it's time to sell, some of the apes buy back some TSLA shares.

 

[Singuy]

Rivian and Lucid will go the same way as Nio.

Nio had a crazy valuation in relation to Tesla's back in January but as soon as Nio had to start actually performing against Tesla (in the China market) and it became clear that not only was Nio not keeping pace with Tesla's growth, they were/are actually falling behind continually on a quarterly basis. They need to be posting growth of 3-4X Tesla's just to keep pace.

But in reality as we've seen in the past 2 quarters, Nio's growth rate really isn't that much higher than Tesla's on a YoY basis and on a quarterly basis, Tesla's growth has actually been better. The shine has quickly come off of the "Nio growth story".

Well in a world where it makes sense, maybe. When NIO/Xpeng/Li were the only "next Tesla" ev plays, their valuation went to the moon. The Chinese government dumping on their own companies soured the sentiment a bit hence the current flow to U.S EV alternatives.

 

[Krugerrand]

I average making only one relevant post per month.

That’s a generous self evaluation.

Hey, if you’re going to leave the door open, the cat is compelled to enter and pee on your couch.

On a positive note for you; it’s a way better ratio than I’m able to achieve.

 

[insaneoctane]

My new, post-BOT thesis is that Tesla and/or MUSK INC will become CHOAM-like. It might take a couple of decades, or half a century, and it will for sure be a rocky ride.
As that unfolds, politics will play an increasingly important role.

Perhaps we can discuss that in an abstract way, in a civil manner - if possible. Not sure it is, though ...

Steering totally clear of politics is fine and understandable and perhaps the best course of action, but I suspect politics will just continues to creep in as Tesla gets larger and larger - regardless if we like it or not.

For, in the future, how will it be possible for peope to avoid having an opinion about the most important organization - and leader - that exists? It wil be like having no opinions re. the weather.

I tend to agree that we will have to find a way to discuss politics in this thread as they impact TSLA. I see an increasing impact of politics on my investment. This thread offers contributors from the full political spectrum and if we can find a way to discuss in a civil and TSLA related fashion, well, that will improve the breadth of our discussion. I think that the world we all live in makes this difficult, but I'm willing and able to be objective and respectful of others POV.

 

[Staples13]

How do I like posts

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well in a world where it makes sense, maybe. When NIO/Xpeng/Li were the only "next Tesla" ev plays, their valuation went to the moon. The Chinese government dumping on their own companies soured the sentiment a bit hence the current flow to U.S EV alternatives.

I'd have to disagree. TSLA and NIO traded pretty similarly for a long time. If you look back at July 1st, that's when they started deviating and it directly corresponds with when Nio's growth sustainability started to show limitations in their monthly sales numbers. This was well before the China crackdown in the fall.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

RIVN up 15%, LCID 22%

Good for the early investors, but this adds risks to the entire sector. Hopefully whenever it's time to sell, some of the apes buy back some TSLA shares.

TSLA would probably have soared as much as these two have, had Elon not done his thing. In the short term, it might have been a good thing to add another 20%+ , but maybe he saved us from a larger “crash” than the one he caused. I guess we’ll never know.

 

[Buckminster]

A market cap of 1 Quadrillion? That's 10x the entire global GDP.

Pretty sure Peter Thiel will have told Elon the following:

1. Chasing stock market money is for losers
2. Chasing countries cash flow (GDP) is for losers
3. Chasing world total wealth (in excess of one Quadrillion USD) is for losers
4. Winners create the money to avoid competing (it's not just governments that print new money).

People lack imagination. Elon is cooking up 100s of products/services/processes we have no understanding of. TeslaBot (which will create entire value chains is just one). Martian economy is another.

People were amused by my bullish predictions - I turned out to be pessimistic. People are amused again by my $125T 2030 prediction. I haven't added in TeslaBot yet. When I do, I will likely remain on the low side because I can only value what I know about.

Now lets get back to bitchin' bout Elon exercising those options with money that was created out of thin air when the market decided the SP was 10x more.

 

[Singuy]

TSLA would probably have soared as much as these two have, had Elon not done his thing. In the short term, it might have been a good thing to add another 20%+ , but maybe he saved us from a larger “crash” than the one he caused. I guess we’ll never know.

I'm pretty happy that the market still peg Tesla at over a trillion dollar marketcap despite Elon's massive share dump and when a competitor's stock is going to the moon. Can't ever complain when the rest of the world finally align with your own valuation model.

 

[StealthP3D]

Even when I 'bet' right, i get it wrong. Bought some 250 puts yesterday. An hour into market today, sold them for 50 per cent loss.

Ouch! I wouldn't have recommended shorting TSLA via puts in 2019 at less than 1/20th the current price. That's where I started buying TSLA in earnest.

On a much larger theme, hard not to worry. If you mentioned demand problem on this board a few months ago, or more, you were vigorously attacked and "proven" wrong. Its hard to argue with numbers, and demand at the very minimum in some markets, is dropping.

Will the s/x refressh restore demand? Musk thinks so. But to be truthful, time will tell.

Musk has never thought of S&X as more than a stepping stone to higher volumes in less expensive cars. His plan for Tesla cannot be realized by depending upon cars priced well into luxury territory.

Model 3 was the wrong car to build. Yes crucify me again, blather on about range being king, while ignoring utility and consumer preference. Other companies are closing down entire plants, slashing production lines, and eliminating the sedan. Thats fact. The decline in the sedan, and rise of the SUV has been happening pre Tesla first roadster. Still cannot wrap my head around this.

If the Model 3 was the wrong car to build, then why did it send Tesla on the path to major success? Can you tell me what happened to sedan sales after Tesla released the Model 3 in large numbers? That's right, Tesla single-handedly reversed the trend of declining sedan sales. Now that the Model 3 has proven to be a raging sales success, are you able to better wrap your head around why Tesla might have chosen the Model 3 as the EV to break into the auto market in a big way or are you still stuck in your 2019 thinking?

Model Y. Tesla management seems confident will sell more than s/x/3 combined. I hope so. Its a dam ugly vehicle, and still not sure (asides from range, which we see with the s/x refresh be countered by other modifications) why they did not go with the tried and tested and obvious shape of ALL the top selling SUV's out there. Why differ? If mass adoption of EV's is the goal, why design something polarizing? IT looks like a SEDAN! Hopefully with the sloped back roofline there is some utility left. If not Tesla will be in big trouble. As there will be a huge demand problem.

Now that the Model Y is climbing the sales charts and has makers like VW and Ford running scared and GM babbling false bravado, do you know why Tesla didn't go with the traditional boxy SUV shape? How's that "huge demand problem" coming along? Sometimes it's a good idea to re-visit perspectives from past years after enough time has passed to see how things played out.

Paging @Krugerrand (@Ocelot warned of a huge demand problem for Models 3 and Y). Yes, it was before your promise to buy another share at every mention of "demand problem" but no one will object if you want to apply the rule retro-actively.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I average making only one relevant post per month.

You 2x'd me....im at 1/2 on a great month

 

[Curt Renz]

Uh I dont think combined they've managed 500 yet?

Saying that Im up a fair bit on my LCID lol

I suspect that much of the huge recent gains for LCID and RIVN shares have been from TSLA shareholders who've stepped aside during Elon's selling spree and temporarily parked their profits in other EV companies. Once Elon is through selling, many of those renegades could switch back.

 

[Tronguy]

Urmm... so ur unaware that he's a MOD?

Um. Yeah, what's below is off-topic in this particular forum, but I have to say it.
I happen to be a refugee from the Tesla Forums - you know, the forums that Tesla itself set up and let loose upon the world.
Unlike around here, there weren't nearly as many subforums. But, on the other hand, what forums there were had plenty of activity.
The better stuff (we'll get to the worse stuff shortly) was fun: People asking questions about this-or-that-feature, getting answers from regulars, some comments about stocks, and so on.
The bad stuff: No effective forum moderation. The trolls ran rampant.
It wasn't the once-and-gone short-sellers who would show up, post some manufactured and false complaint, and disappear forever.
The really bad ones would give nice answers that actually answered something - then, when they had been accepted by newbies (whom these trolls specifically targeted), the troll would put out false, hard-for-a-newbie-to-check misinformation, designed to trouble the newbie and cause Tesla more work (by getting phone calls from the newbies).
So, some trolls posted false information, all the time. Other trolls (or sockpuppets) would post support for the false information. Other trolls would walk back and forth between giving true information and false. Regulars would spend inordinate amounts of time pointing out the trolls; it turned into a complete, total, mess. Attempts at auto-moderation through computerized means by Tesla failed as the trolls gamed the system.
Tesla, frankly, had better fish to fry, so down the forums went.
Frankly, I'm glad that the TMC forums have real moderators with teeth. It means that civil discourse is possible.
But, when somebody shows up and starts talking about frea speech and posts negative comments at the edge of believeability, I get strongly reminded of those trolls back on the Tesla forums, whose purpose was to destroy the forums (they succeeded) and harm Tesla (they didn't). In which case, a forum moderator with brains and time to do the work necessary to keep this place free of trolls is priceless.

 

[hobbes]

I average making only one relevant post per month.

Please mark it from now on so we can save time on the irrelevant ones !

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA closes well up and near the high of the day.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

How do I like posts

 

[larmor]

I suspect that much of the huge recent gains for LCID and RIVN shares have been from TSLA shareholders who've stepped aside during Elon's selling spree and temporarily parked their profits in other EV companies. Once Elon is through selling, many of those renegades could switch back.

There was a huge battle for $300 (pre split) where the narrative remained "but can tesla really make that many cars and make a profit, and even if a profit is made it is fake" (although i still argue that EV/carbon tax credits as a product or byproduct of a widget business is a very smart and profitable idea.) For some reason that does not seem to be an issue with lucid/rivian are not held to that standard.

 

[hobbes]

How do I like posts

Not sure but as you´re new, it might take a short time until all features are available?

 

[dww12]

Monthly chart now looks like a giant bull trap.

Edit Bear Trap. Don’t post in office meetings.