Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LightngMcQueen]

I just realized I had about 10k left over in my fidelity account, went in on some YOLO short term calls (Dec 10th). If this is a big head fake because of the lighter trading because of the holiday, I'll do pretty well. If not, well it's YOLO money

Rivian, Lucid, Nio, all of them are doing much much better than TSLA today and now TSLA is down about 10% from it's intraday high yesterday.

What ever it will be I would not count on 24h notice as being sufficient for market to digest it. If indeed there is a 1209 event then the sequence of:

event -> WTF? -> FOMO! -> Gamma !! -> Squeeze $#

may take weeks to unfold. Low liquidity Xmas would both stretch and amplify Gamma (MM squeeze) and Short Squeeze stages with prices still raising in Jan. Then there is Q4 delivery report and few weeks later earnings, which might result in Bear Triple Smacking (tm).

On Dec 10th the market will be slowly waking up to WTF? stage - coffee prices are likely to spike shortly.

(not an advice)

 

[EVDRVN]

5 @ $1069 oh baby

Did 30.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's a shame that in 2021, there are still plenty of toxic wimps who claim to be "men" that consider you as less than straight if you own an EV.

There aren't any that matter, they are all irrelevant, misguided and powerless to do anything about it. And when an EV leaves them in the dust at the track they become incoherent babbling fools. They know they are full of horse-pucky but they can't control themselves.

 

[dl003]

Ok a split has to be announced now and we can all pitch in to hire Elon a good stonk lawyer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What ever it will be I would not count on 24h notice as being sufficient for market to digest it. If indeed there is a 1209 event then the sequence of:

event -> WTF? -> FOMO! -> Gamma !! -> Squeeze $#

may take weeks to unfold. Low liquidity Xmas would both stretch and amplify Gamma (MM squeeze) and Short Squeeze stages with prices still raising in Jan. Then there is delivery report and few weeks later earnings, which might result in Bear Triple Smacking (tm).

On Dec 10th the market will be slowly waking up to WTF? stage, coffee prices are likely to spike shortly.

(not an advice)

I actually did split my buys between Dec 10th Calls all the way to Dec 31st calls. As I stated in post just a few mins ago, I think this is a bear raid to take advantage of the lighter trading on holiday week. I also think we will have Nov Shanghai numbers by Dec 9th, so I'm obviously banking on a quick rebound to upper 1100's or low 1200's and then my later Dec Calls are in hopes of some sort of announcement.

Besides the short term calls, which again just throwaway money so no biggie either way, I did swap some more stock for LEAPS (March 2023 1700) when the stock was down about 8%.

 

[tivoboy]

I don't think there's going to be a split, but the idea of Elon getting in trouble for selling shares BEFORE a split is just silly.

No, for telegraphing the split - in secretive numerology fashion.

 

[JustSaying]

There aren't any that matter, they are all irrelevant, misguided and powerless to do anything about it. And when an EV leaves them in the dust at the track they become incoherent babbling fools. They know they are full of horse-pucky but they can't control themselves.

I got a nice thumbs up from a Porsche 911 driver, while at a stop light, in our Model S plaid yesterday....

 

[Drax7]

Fsd 10.5 videos showing noticeable improvements .
Any thoughts ?

 

[tivoboy]

I got a nice thumbs up from a Porsche 911 driver, while at a stop light, in our Model S plaid yesterday....

You could see his thumb 50 yards in your rear view mirror? That’s amazing vision.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, for telegraphing the split - in secretive numerology fashion.

No, otherwise they would have pursued the "R.I.P. Harambe" telegraph in 2019Q1, or the "Chairs are underappreciated", or countless others.

SEC got their heads handed to them over the after-hrs ARK Invest interview which revealed zero new non-public information. They aren't going to bother again.

Its actually NICE of Elon to warn these blighters: a less kind approach would be to NOT tell them in advance. But he's done that before too: "there's a tsunami of hurt coming" and "stormy weather in shortsville". Elon is a gentleman.

If shortzes ignore his warnings, its on them. They already cried Wolf to the SEC in Spring 2020. They won't step into that leg hold trap again.

 

[Curt Renz]

Another consideration regarding MNPI would be the signing of a Hertz contract.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No, for telegraphing the split - in secretive numerology fashion.

That would be......the most entertaining court case in history

 

[jkirkwood001]

Interesting opinion from the Tesla Economist about how likely Chinese EV manufacturers could take over the US market.

Spoiler: Tl;Dr

Not likely.

 

[Sofie]

That would be......the most entertaining court case in history

Surely it would be made into a movie and make millions

 

[CanadaEV]

Surely it would be made into a movie and make millions

SEC: You see there judge? Where he tweeted BLISS? You see what that means??? It’s so obvious!!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fsd 10.5 videos showing noticeable improvements .
Any thoughts ?

Santa gives out a lot more FSD, stops calling it Beta, Q4 revenue explodes!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I would not hesitate, buy it. I was car shopping for fun because of the long wait for my cyber truck. Almost nothing is in stock. Still. In November, which is the start of inventory restocking. All that’s left is very expensive optioned out vehicles. I would enjoy getting something new while waiting, like a base model work truck. They are over $40k now. Almost double what I could get one for before the pandemic.

They told me they would delay it until January but no later. This should give me a chance at the 8k.

 

[tivoboy]

IF you want to be a rock star, maybe dabble in the 11/26 weeklies.. @1200 strike is about 3$. ;-). The way this puppy bobs around, I wouldn’t put it past it to dump and then ramp back over $1200 by then. If she gets under $2.90 I might throw 3K at it.

If anyone followed me here I’m selling it today at $4, entered at $2.25. You can probably get to $6 or $8 easy tomorrow or Friday, but I’m off tomorrow..

 

[The Accountant]

Do those estimates take into account massive spending on multiplying battery production plants around the globe? And perhaps some mining investments as well? Because I doubt Tesla would allow that kind of money to build up and just sit there - it's not how the corporate DNA thinks.

I believe I have sufficient Capital Expenditures for the type of investments you mention.
In my model, I have Capex (see yellow row) of $20.9b, $29.8b and $50b in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. Keep in mind that Tesla will only spend $6.4b this year while putting up two new factories, expanding Shanghai and delivering on the Models S/X Refreshes. Tesla is very efficient when it comes to capital spending and thus the amounts I have in 2023-2026 should cover not only battery plants and mining but also some AI investments. I actually don't think they could spend $50b in 2026. I'll need to revise this number down.

My 5 year model is a bit stale and I have gotten great comments from members here that will require me to tweak these numbers. I hope to have a revised 5 year plan in mid December.

 

[ZsoZso]

Santa gives out a lot more FSD, stops calling it Beta, Q4 revenue explodes!

If they stop calling it beta, do they also need to re-classify it officially level 3 or 4 and take responsibility for accidents ?
Otherwise, if it is still level 2 (with full responsibility on driver), then the name FSD is truly misleading...