Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Now that this pattern is so established, makes sense for that turn to be done now-ish if you ask me. There's 13 trading days left in the year.

Are you calling bottom?
(Asking for a friend.)

 

[Sofie]

If you wait until we know that Elon has completed his selling, it will be too late to benefit from that news.

He may be doing so today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If true, that's very bullish. Because it's stacking up the future buys. You can't sell a stock without having to cover in the future and I have to think TSLA short sellers have learned this is a company you don't want to let your short positions hang out to dry.

I beginning to think of short sellers as my little financial helpers!

Yes I agree. It's presenting an opportunity for everyone that missed out after Q3 earnings to get back in despite. What's very annoying to me is that I think shorts and hedge funds are very aware of what's coming 2022 and they'll clear out before Jan 3rd.......and they'll make off with a ton of money thanks to Elon himself.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm on board with your thought process the last few weeks, but aren't we over-reacting a bit here? I feel like it's times like these where everyone falls back into this idea of share pricing being a pile of money that needs to be rebuilt, rather than just a price where shares cna be bought or sold at one moment in time.

Volume is super low again today, and clearly Elon is selling tons of shares. With the hedge fund shorting, that's the entirety of today's volume. So of course we're down bigly. I don't know how that somehow equates to a dramatic loss as the evil hedgies make their now inevitable path to $910.

This is an open market. People need TSLA shares before year end for a million different reasons. Everyone knew Elon would be selling, so they're front running. You don't think they're gonna turn on a dime and front run the 4Q earnings spike? Now that this pattern is so established, makes sense for that turn to be done now-ish if you ask me. There's 13 trading days left in the year.

Elon doesn't need to stop selling, he's gotta be more than 2/3 done now anyway. The market will take care of this.

Just to clarify....there's a clear "time window" for these shenanigans to keep going on and it's roughly 12-13 trading days. Shorts and hedge funds seriously lucked out by the China Nov numbers (which I didn't bother responding to because my thoughts were exactly what some mentioned here, anywhere from 6-10k vehicles were in transit to far reaching places in China).

Even if Elon isn't done selling by Jan 3rd, the Q4 numbers will force the issue. As would a catalyst like Austin/Berlin officially starting production. We just need the catalyst

 

[Discoducky]

Are you calling bottom?
(Asking for a friend.)

I think @Artful Dodger has the magic number today of $969. But we seem to have escaped the bull flag so might test ~$906.

But max pain suggests we come back to 1k by Friday.

Bumpy week as macro has us in a bind.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470438930608799745

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gary Black is speaking live about meeting with Tesla IR:

If you click the link, you can watch it.

Btw, Gary just leaked the China Nov production numbers. About 60k. Which further confirms that roughly 7-8k vehicles were in transit and not counted in the CPCA numbers.

For anyone not aware, you can purchase the production numbers in advance of them being publicly revealed on Nov 20th.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

cnbc ran a story on bubble stocks last Friday, including Tesla in the
group. And now barons. This may be a reaction the FUD.
Who wakes up dumping Tesla stock first thing in the morning.

Barron’s ‘story’ seems shady. Tesla P/E is still dropping 1/4ly and I agree with others that semi/ Austin and Berlin are gonna be ‘huge’. 200 MA means what to a company growing as fast as Tesla?
The ‘EV charging action plan’ has a US goal for 2030 EVs (50%)that will be met by Tesla alone at the current factory growth rate.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just to clarify....there's a clear "time window" for these shenanigans to keep going on and it's roughly 12-13 trading days. Shorts and hedge funds seriously lucked out by the China Nov numbers (which I didn't bother responding to because my thoughts were exactly what some mentioned here, anywhere from 6-10k vehicles were in transit to far reaching places in China).

Even if Elon isn't done selling by Jan 3rd, the Q4 numbers will force the issue. As would a catalyst like Austin/Berlin officially starting production. We just need the catalyst

And everyone knows all these things. That's why I'm of the opinion they're pushing their luck even right now, let alone going for $910 in the next 5 or 7 trading days.

$910 equates to a forward PE of something like 75, and on Jan 3 deliveries will show what.....75% growth? That math is too easy for too many people.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And everyone knows all these things. That's why I'm of the opinion they're pushing their luck even right now, let alone going for $910 in the next 5 or 7 trading days.

$910 equates to a forward PE of something like 75, and on Jan 3 deliveries will show what.....75% growth? That math is too easy for too many people.

Yup, $910 would be crazy considering forward PE and what's in store for Q4. Let's just say I have a large block of shares ready to swap for LEAPS if that happens.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you calling bottom?
(Asking for a friend.)

I have zero dollars to trade with today, so I flat out refuse to call bottom. Purely out of self-loathing for not closing everything Friday when @StarFoxisDown! CLEARLY indicated we'd want to have dry powder for today.

I'm so angry I think I'm gonna go do some work. If you can even imagine.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Btw, Gary just leaked the China Nov production numbers. About 60k. Which further confirms that roughly 7-8k vehicles were in transit and not counted in the CPCA numbers.

For anyone not aware, you can purchase the production numbers in advance of them being publicly revealed on Nov 20th.

I've seen the actual numbers, and "60k" is fudging them to the high side a bit. They're closer to 55k than they are to 60k.

 

[Cherry Wine]

And everyone knows all these things. That's why I'm of the opinion they're pushing their luck even right now, let alone going for $910 in the next 5 or 7 trading days.

$910 equates to a forward PE of something like 75, and on Jan 3 deliveries will show what.....75% growth? That math is too easy for too many people.

Bears are being helped massively by Elon and general market wariness due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Just like stock prices can overshoot to the high side, they can overshoot to the downside as well. A markedly more hawkish Fed could cause some of the latter within the market, imho.

And I say all of this as someone left holding the bag on some sold puts who would love to see us return to ATHs like, yesterday.

 

[Open Interest]

Bought 10 shares this morning. This is exciting!

 

[elasalle]

useless day, a little humor here and there

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470399049736101899

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470438930608799745

I think that's a destination charger. The DC ports on the CCS don't seem to be utilized.

 

[22522]

I recommend never buying a stock you have no idea how it will turn out!

I'm confident TSLA will be worth a lot more in just a few years so I don't sweat the small stuff.

Yes, "most likely outcome" is useful.

"I have no idea" means "not an advice."

But being transparent about actions lets everyone learn from the experience, even if it does not work out.

 

[jhm]

Could there be another possibility? Perhaps this retaliation isn’t just about EVs. Tariffs on EVs in Canada would help protect and extend the life of Alberta Tar Sands and other fossil fuel interests in Canada - the media coverage of which always seems to be a little lacking…….hmmm .

IIRC, Canada has put its on carbon tax on Alberta Tae sands. But if they really wanted to retaliate while fighting climate change, perhaps they should put the tarrif on imported ICE vehicles instead of BEVs. This would be more painful to the Biden Administration while calling out hypocritical greenwashing.

 

[Baumisch]

Elon's stock sales will probably go down as the last significant buying opportunity that we could actually see coming.

It's TSLA - I don't think so
I got a small bullish 8x knockout bet running, knock-out at 920 - let's see how that goes

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470438930608799745

InsideEVs: It's connected, but don't be fooled, it's not charging.

Excerpt: ...The answer is that someone is pulling a prank...