Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

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[StarFoxisDown!]

This things going straight back under the lower BB isn’t it

Seems like I still might get a chance at 910. I expect a major bear raid on Monday given the holiday week

 

[StealthP3D]

Praising Tesla/Elon Musk 24/7 isn't a requirement to be an effective CEO of a competing automaker.

There is a big difference between Farly praising Tesla/Elon Musk 24/7 and treating Elon like his company is a joke or a science project.

Farley isn't laughing now.

An effective CEO has vision and valuable, accurate analysis that is timely. Obviously, Jim Farley had a serious failing when he mis-judged Tesla as a potential competitor. I'm not sure why you are trying to re-write Jim Farley's past history. It's not about praising the competition; it's about recognizing competitive threats in time. Jim Farly failed miserably, even after many of us recognized how inevitable it was. And that's pretty bad considering he gets paid millions of dollars to run a large automaker. That's not even our job!

 

[tivoboy]

Ok who did this?

View attachment 744923

I wonder if they have measured efficiency gains yet.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think this is relevant to FSD.

Waymo hit another pedestrian last night. We always hear about how amazing $15 per hour safety drivers are because they are so well trained (2 day class session). Waymo is still safer than human pilot I'm sure, but the difference in outrage is telling.

View attachment 744921View attachment 744920

Hmmmm... It's LIDAR must have taken a break. I've heard that LIDAR is the only way to ensure safety.


/s

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This things going straight back under the lower BB isn’t it

Seems like I still might get a chance at 910. I expect a major bear raid on Monday given the holiday week

I sure as hell hope so! Would be perfectly happy selling 890/790 BPS for 12/23 with SP heading toward 910. If they end up in danger, just roll em for more premium. The lower we get, the more certain I can be of a rebound in the short/medium term.

As for a bear raid Monday.....I was thinking it made sense for Elon to be selling today and then Monday. But if this selling schedule was all planned ahead, everyone in the know sees the short holiday week bear raid is coming. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon specifically planned for little or no selling next week.

 

[hoang51]

This things going straight back under the lower BB isn’t it

Seems like I still might get a chance at 910. I expect a major bear raid on Monday given the holiday week

That's quite a chance. It looks like for the short term, TSLA is stuck between 20 EMA and the lower BB.

 

[22522]

Ok who did this?

View attachment 744923

To make this relevant to this forum, it is important to recognize that Tesla excellence in engineering extends all the way to parts that are useful for other vehicles. The base Model 3 wheels are an important part of the Model 3 on road performance. I bought a set from Tesla with their summer Michelin Pilot Sport tires to obtain the best Model 3 experience.( Use the heavier 19s for winter only). That 18" tire wheel decision will result in the best experience on any car they will fit on.

Tesla engineers really good stuff - even if you don't buy the entire car. This is what is underneath the covers - a really good wheel. [from the metal roof days]

 

[StealthP3D]

If you dedicate a car for ride-hailing as target-market, why not go all the way like with the tesla semi? Only one central seat in the front with lots of room to store stuff/equipment and a spacious, luxurious cabin for the passengers.. why cram 2 seat in the front?

One more thing i like about Tesla is to go with a blank slate in such cases

Because one more seat allows you to accept parties of four. The semi does not need to be concerned about that.

 

[Mengy]

There is a big difference between Farly praising Tesla/Elon Musk 24/7 and treating Elon like his company is a joke or a science project.

Farley isn't laughing now.

An effective CEO has vision and valuable, accurate analysis that is timely. Obviously, Jim Farley had a serious failing when he mis-judged Tesla as a potential competitor. I'm not sure why you are trying to re-write Jim Farley's past history. It's not about praising the competition; it's about recognizing competitive threats in time. Jim Farly failed miserably, even after many of us recognized how inevitable it was.

I agree, but Farly seems to have corrected his tune today. He even openly admits Tesla is the EV leader and Ford is working to catch up. The first step towards addressing a problem is admitting you have one and Farly (like Diess at VW) is doing that, and this gives me some hope that Ford will survive the disruption.

Barra and GM are the opposite. She doesn't want to talk about Tesla, she states GM is the EV leader, she is the polar opposite of Farly and this gives me great trepidation for GM's survival chances in the near future.

If I had stock in Ford I'd be hesitantly holding it, but if I had any money in GM I'd pull it out in a nanosecond. I am happy and content with my money in TSLA.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I sure as hell hope so! Would be perfectly happy selling 890/790 BPS for 12/23 with SP heading toward 910. If they end up in danger, just roll em for more premium. The lower we get, the more certain I can be of a rebound in the short/medium term.

As for a bear raid Monday.....I was thinking it made sense for Elon to be selling today and then Monday. But if this selling schedule was all planned ahead, everyone in the know sees the short holiday week bear raid is coming. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon specifically planned for little or no selling next week.

Regardless of whether Elon will be selling on Monday, I think all the hedge funds and shorts will use Monday-Wednesday of next week as their last chance to drive it lower.

The week after I think FOMO for Q4 numbers will set in and all the buyers who have been unwilling to buy until Elons done selling will start buying regardless of whether Elons done or not

 

[StealthP3D]

You may be right, although for right now I suspect that some of us here (including myself) are making Elon's stock sales bigger than they are - as if they're the single stock mover these past weeks.

Elon's stock sales are a big nothing-burger as far as the true value of the company is concerned. But you were addressing the near-term share price and I was responding to that. It's going to be volatile and unpredictable until Elon's selling is finished, and I would just as soon get it behind us even that means one more big drop before Christmas.

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree, but Farly seems to have corrected his tune today. He even openly admits Tesla is the EV leader and Ford is working to catch up. The first step towards addressing a problem is admitting you have one and Farly (like Diess at VW) is doing that, and this gives me some hope that Ford will survive the disruption.

Yes, Farley sees the threat now that the threat is obvious to all. But my comments were about whether Farly needed to praise Elon/Tesla 24/7 in order to be considered a good CEO.

In my opinion, you don't get a feather in your cap for recognizing something late, you only get the feather if you saw it before everyone else.

 

[Mengy]

Yes, Farley sees the threat now that the threat is obvious to all. But my comments were about whether Farly needed to praise Elon/Tesla 24/7 in order to be considered a good CEO.

In my opinion, you don't get a feather in your cap for recognizing something late, you only get the feather if you saw it before everyone else.

True, but I do think Farly gets a feather for at least seeing it now and openly admitting it. Other CEO's still have not made that much progress.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Regardless of whether Elon will be selling on Monday, I think all the hedge funds and shorts will use Monday-Wednesday of next week as their last chance to drive it lower.

The week after I think FOMO for Q4 numbers will set in and all the buyers who have been unwilling to buy until Elons done selling will start buying regardless of whether Elons done or not

Volume today doesn't look like the other days on which Elon was selling, so I'm guessing he's not selling today. With the caveat that I know absolutely nothing. I could easily see today ending up just like the last two days. Big dip and bigger recovery on afternoon covering/FOMO.

That seems an absurd strategy to do the same thing every day, but maybe there's not much actual buy/selling going on and these guys can just short and cover within the same day for nearly no cost.

If you were my neighbor and saw me shaking the olive tree in my front yard, you'd think that's perfectly normal as I go about collecting all my fallen olives and no doubt sharing them with my neighbors. If I then went out and shook the same damn tree the next 4 days in a row, you'd lock me up in the nut house!

 

[MartinAustin]

Is it just me or is the forum performing a lot better? Pages seem to be loading at lightning speed... nice job admins

Is today an Elon stock-selling day? The rather solid-looking descent seemed to indicate that, but now it looks like it's taking a breather

 

[FS_FRA]

Feels like Elon is selling today....

 

[Lessmog]

There are ground mounted solar systems, that come pre-packaged,
That part of the process is take the panel unit of the truck, unfold it, and install it on the hopefully close to level ground.

The best surface to use in an emergency would be sports fields, or some flat and level land.

However, even for a standalone system everything needs to be wired up, the solar could probably be deployed in a day with a sufficient number of parallel teams.

Making the connections is probably done fastest using poles, they probably need at least 1 pole for every row of solar and additional poles are needed for the battery bank. Or the other way is drop a battery at the end of each row of solar and run the cables on the ground in suitable conduit..

The everything needs to be run up and tested, but again this is something that could proceed in parallel.

This system would not connect to the grid, it could provide fast charging services for EVs, Trucks and Megapacks.

So one day is remotely possible with a good plan and highly skilled team prior rehearsal and modular approach that allows parallel construction.
Getting sufficient trained people the right block of land, logistics and equipment on site and deployed in a day is a big challenge, but if they aim for a day, it is probably all up and running day 2 or day 3.

Tesla did airlift a lot of emergency stuff into Puerto Rico after one of those hurricanes (Maria?) a few years back that killed almost all power on the island. It took more than one day but they did set up power for a children's hospital pretty quick, laying out the panels on the ground in a parking lot at first, and feeding into batteries. Some guy had laid out clothes and towels on the lawn, spelling TESLA HELP for passing air traffic.

Good deeds are cheap marketing!

EDIT: I see I was too slow, beaten by @winfield100 (and perhaps others)

 

[winfield100]

there has been a bunch of "hootin 'n hollering" about the effect that Elon's 2012 shares are doing, as he is acquiring 23,737,050 shares, and dispersing around 12,000,000 shares, (taxes and acquisition) (acquired and previously owned) around $12.8 Billion in sales (all numbers are rough, but close.)

So far he has, as per SEC from 4's, acquired ~16 million of the 23.8 million

however if you look at the March, 2018 there is a 4-5x tsunami coming, the next earthquake is in the process of happening

SEC FORM 4

20,264,042 (pre-split) shares were possible by 2028

this was done when Tesla the company was valued at ==> $59 billion <==, not $1+ Trillion, so one of the series of $50 Billion milestones was to get to a value of $650 Billion, done
This set has been far exceeded
@The Accountant has been following this and pointed out that a number of other milestones have been hit, more most likely by Q4

Elon and Tesla have until 2028 to hit the milestones, but in under 4 years a lot have been hit already, some exceeded

here is a ==>__hypothetical__<== scenerio based on the 2018 documents

The salient numbers are

Elon will get another 101,320,210 shares, in 12 tranches
their fixed cost at $70/share will be $7.1 Billion
He is _only_ allowed to sell these shares to cover cost to acquire and taxes
::assumption Tesla goes up in 10% increments between now and the 12 tranches
They would then have a _taxable_ value of $181 Billion
of the 101 million shares, Elon will need to sell around _58 million_ shares to cover acquisition costs and tax costs, but is precluded from selling any more for a minimum of 5 years.
and, more or less, bottom line, he should be worth well over $600+ Billion by 2028, if the stock price appreciates in 10% increments
Elon would end up, after acquisition costs and taxes, with an additional 43 million shares,
this would add another 101 million shares to the 1 billion (1,000 million) shares, diluting around 10%, BUT the stock price will/should/might appreciate 300% so a negligible cost
(those of us whom are 30 - 100 baggers will take a tiny nick)

additionally

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA

I find it extremely suspect and bothering that the SEC feels the necessity to officially state

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

unless they are getting "heat" from a lot of folks, about that specific actuality

					FIXED			possible
	Date	now to 2028			COST			stock price	Taxed Value
1	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,000​	$8,443,350,833​
2	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,100​	$9,287,685,917​
3	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,210​	$10,216,454,508​
4	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,331​	$11,238,099,959​
5	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,464​	$12,361,909,955​
6	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,611​	$13,598,100,951​
7	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,772​	$14,957,911,046​
8	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$1,949​	$16,453,702,150​
9	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,144​	$18,099,072,365​
10	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,358​	$19,908,979,602​
11	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,594​	$21,899,877,562​
12	TBD	8,443,351	A	$70.00	$591,068,332​			$2,853​	$24,089,865,318​
		101,320,210		total	$7,092,819,981				$180,555,010,166	appx tax value
				cost					$95,694,155,388​	appx 53% tax owed
	date	0.569				to be		price	$102,786,975,369	needed
1	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$4,806,715,196​	dispersed		TBD
2	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$5,287,386,715​	dispersed		TBD
3	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$5,816,125,387​	dispersed		TBD
4	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$6,397,737,926​	dispersed		TBD
5	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$7,037,511,718​	dispersed		TBD
6	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$7,741,262,890​	dispersed		TBD
7	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$8,515,389,179​	dispersed		TBD
8	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$9,366,928,097​	dispersed		TBD
9	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$10,303,620,907​	dispersed		TBD
10	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$11,333,982,997​	dispersed		TBD
11	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$12,467,381,297​	dispersed		TBD
12	TBD	4,806,715​	D		$13,714,119,427​	dispersed		TBD
		Sell to pay tax
		57,680,582​			$102,788,161,737​
		excess left over		-$1,186,369​				POTENTIAL VALUE
		43,639,628​							OF Elon's shares
									$628,084,049,322​
									by 2028

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon's stock sales are a big nothing-burger as far as the true value of the company is concerned. But you were addressing the near-term share price and I was responding to that. It's going to be volatile and unpredictable until Elon's selling is finished, and I would just as soon get it behind us even that means one more big drop before Christmas.

Agreed. I’d love it if Elon would just end it with 2X the size sells today and on Monday. So instead of 934k, it would be 1.86 million each day.

I still think he's finishing his selling before the end of the year which means 4 more tranches of 934k. Though if he did 934k today and 934k on Monday, that would get us to around 85% done and I think the market sentiment would turn for the stock.