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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Is the OG X the car you want FSD Beta on? If so, do you have both the AP3 computer (guessing yes) and camera upgrades (which only started a month or so ago)?
Tesla FSD early adopters get Autopilot Camera Upgrade invites for Model S and X

Were the side cameras not working on the semi back in 2017 (or whenever it was in plain sight)?
That's an interesting question, because although yes, I do have the AP3, I also had the cameras replaced....about....16 (?) months ago. But could those not have been the ones requisite for the current version of FSD (you're saying that version only just became available)? How can I determine what version of those side cameras I possess?
 
Show of hands, now:

How many of you would choose I want my Mommy Traction Control over the chance to burn rubber? I mean, c'mon!
This ad is amazing for demonstrating Traction Control vs. Burning Rubber:


The actual New Supra is controversial for using a BMW platform, sharing the same basic underpinning as the Z4. That doesn't make me not want one, though.
 
Becoming more clear now why EV credits and the BBB Act are delayed:


No, this story isn't from The Onion it just read like one.
It’s funny, I said almost the exact same thing in another thread talking about the EV rebates. None of the players who are lobbying for the incentive are affected. Also means no incentive to make the incentives retroactive if they are passed in February or March. Ford has incentive dollars, GM‘s only production EV is too expensive to receive them.
 
This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear).

I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC generated graphs back then). It was so surprising compared to previous years that I wrote some software to scan the histories of all comparable volume stocks (~6000 companies with volume from 10 times less than TSLA up to any larger volume) to see if other actively traded stocks ever had similar long periods of no FTDs. It turned out that no other heavily traded stock ever had even 1/5 as long a period of no FTD reports. I actually wrote to the SEC about it because it seemed like it couldn't be true. They never responded to me. I'm guessing that this auto-generated graph queries the same data set, and when FTDs are (allegedly) zero, there is no entry and therefore also no price, So this creates a gap on the graph.

You can see for yourself that no other symbols have this gap behavior by choosing any (active volume) symbol and there will be no big gaps. e.g.
https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=AAPL has no gap in the Nov '18 -> Jan '19 time frame or any other time frame.

One thing you will see is that large spikes in FTDs are common with many other stocks, not just TSLA. But no others ever have a reporting gap.

So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

edit: fixed messed up link.
 
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That's an interesting question, because although yes, I do have the AP3, I also had the cameras replaced....about....16 (?) months ago. But could those not have been the ones requisite for the current version of FSD (you're saying that version only just became available)? How can I determine what version of those side cameras I possess?


There was no such thing as available camera upgrades for AP purposes until late October (and AFAIK they didn't actually start doing them till just last month)....and only because they finally determined they wouldn't be able to make the AP2.0 cameras (different color filters than the 2.5 ones) work acceptably.

If you had any cameras replaced prior because of a warranty defect or something before that you'd have gotten the same "old" replacements and still need the newer ones.


 
So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

As I recall, @lklundin did some work on TSLA FTD reports during that time frame, d/l'd gigabytes of data, and filtering it for TSLA. He may still have archives of that work (if we ask nicely).

Paging @lklundin :)
 
Show of hands, now:

How many of you would choose I want my Mommy Traction Control over the chance to burn rubber? I mean, c'mon!
Is there any advantage at all to burning rubber? I know some traction control systems rob you of power, but is this the case in a Tesla?

I could care less about the noise/ smells of peeling out, but if there are some actual performance benefits then I start caring.

When I first got my Tesla, one of my favorite things to do when showing it off is to just smash the throttle on a gravel road. The thing just completely launched on a super sketchy surface. Impressed the hell out of everyone in the car and watching (And likely dinged the paint in multiple places but WTF I bought it to have fun).

So… from my seat, traction control is a winner.
 
Is there any advantage at all to burning rubber? I know some traction control systems rob you of power, but is this the case in a Tesla?

I could care less about the noise/ smells of peeling out, but if there are some actual performance benefits then I start caring.

When I first got my Tesla, one of my favorite things to do when showing it off is to just smash the throttle on a gravel road. The thing just completely launched on a super sketchy surface. Impressed the hell out of everyone in the car and watching (And likely dinged the paint in multiple places but WTF I bought it to have fun).

So… from my seat, traction control is a winner.
From the pure mechanics perspective of drag racing, the reason that drag cars do burnouts as routine preparation for the race before moving to the starting line is that melting your tires gives you better traction from a dig (standing start).

MODERATOR EDIT:
This edit is occurring here for the sole reason that it is the last (for a bunch of mostly W.Hemisphere time zones) one of the day. ALL posts herebelow that either smack of or dripping-fester of political and related topics will be squelched.

A Mod goes on a short time-off and this thread turns toxic. Nice going, all of those so guilty.
:mad:
 
That's an interesting question, because although yes, I do have the AP3, I also had the cameras replaced....about....16 (?) months ago. But could those not have been the ones requisite for the current version of FSD (you're saying that version only just became available)? How can I determine what version of those side cameras I possess?
Those were likely still AP2. New versions have colors other than red and grey when footage is viewed. Everything other than back up gets updated (if not all ready).
Full Self-Driving Computer Installations
 
This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear).

I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC generated graphs back then). It was so surprising compared to previous years that I wrote some software to scan the histories of all comparable volume stocks (~6000 companies with volume from 10 times less than TSLA up to any larger volume) to see if other actively traded stocks ever had similar long periods of no FTDs. It turned out that no other heavily traded stock ever had even 1/5 as long a period of no FTD reports. I actually wrote to the SEC about it because it seemed like it couldn't be true. They never responded to me. I'm guessing that this auto-generated graph queries the same data set, and when FTDs are (allegedly) zero, there is no entry and therefore also no price, So this creates a gap on the graph.

You can see for yourself that no other symbols have this gap behavior by choosing any (active volume) symbol and there will be no big gaps. e.g.
https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=AAPL has no gap in the Nov '18 -> Jan '19 time frame or any other time frame.

One thing you will see is that large spikes in FTDs are common with many other stocks, not just TSLA. But no others ever have a reporting gap.

So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

edit: fixed messed up link.
@hacer
i downloaded those specific .zip files of compressed data 3x, manually, additionally had someone take pity on me and automate the d/l of all those files for me and send sorted files

there were zero reported FTD’s , yet were a bunch on both sides, before and after.

the spike at the 5:1 split, the spike at the S&P inclusion, the 3 day spike last late june, recent spikes worth 1/2 $Billion,
there seemed to be a cluster a while back, low but constant, now higher spikes.

i had a series of “discussions” on another forum that is full of TSLAQ where a guy bragged about having a stable of folks shorting and reshorting and making buckets of money doing so, being financially quite astute.

i have no viable ideas other than yelling presently.
Madoff actually got away with it, from what i read he was the sacrificial lamb for the family,
(like the Sacklers seem to be doing)

the rules really are different in the financial stratosphere
 
For a good weekend laugh:

"Upcoming Merger: Tesla Will Swallow Daimler Without Asking"

What is behind such crazy rumor ?
Let's just ignore the fact that Tesla would gain nothing with such a hostile takeover, it would be complete waste of good money to buy a dinosaour on its way to extinction (taking on a whole bunch of debt in the process as a side-effect, so the value is effectively less than zero).
Is this a wet pipe-dream of Daimler investors ? Then they must be desperate...
This post isn't in reference to any silly merger rumors.

TeslaBjorn has done a series of videos reviewing the EQS and he's very impressed with it - he would like to own one himself - which is quite high praise for someone who has been doing in depth reviews of EVs for a decade and is a Tesla fan. He likes the quietness, smooth ride, large battery, fit and finish, etc. It's a complete power hog but has a large battery and very fast charging.

Looking around online it appears the starting price would be similar to the Plaid - however Mercedes' options would likely add a lot more to the price. They might even be able to earn a positive margin.

Step 1 for Mercedes' chance to survive is a decent product - which the EQS appears to be. It will be interesting if they can figure out how to scale and get their EV supply chains in order.
 
Oh come one. In practice, if you drive fast on urban streets, you'll eventually end up in a situation where you have to slow down suddenly, which is tracked. So, go ahead and drive fast, but you'll find it hard to maintain a good safety score in real world situations.
Probably a reading error. 4g rather than 0.4g.
 
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This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear).

I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC generated graphs back then). It was so surprising compared to previous years that I wrote some software to scan the histories of all comparable volume stocks (~6000 companies with volume from 10 times less than TSLA up to any larger volume) to see if other actively traded stocks ever had similar long periods of no FTDs. It turned out that no other heavily traded stock ever had even 1/5 as long a period of no FTD reports. I actually wrote to the SEC about it because it seemed like it couldn't be true. They never responded to me. I'm guessing that this auto-generated graph queries the same data set, and when FTDs are (allegedly) zero, there is no entry and therefore also no price, So this creates a gap on the graph.

You can see for yourself that no other symbols have this gap behavior by choosing any (active volume) symbol and there will be no big gaps. e.g.
https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=AAPL has no gap in the Nov '18 -> Jan '19 time frame or any other time frame.

One thing you will see is that large spikes in FTDs are common with many other stocks, not just TSLA. But no others ever have a reporting gap.

So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

edit: fixed messed up link.
@hacer @Artful Dodger

On 10/29/2018 there were 14,025 FTD's worth $4.6 million, close price of 330.90
Next date reported
1/23/2019 209,870 FTD's worth ~$63 Million, close price of $298.92
ftd sorted TSLA in excel format, zipped, that contains a few extra columns, I added last 1/2 of november to data file
I added a column x5 for presplit post split actual stock price to normalize, a column for %FTD, a column for value of FTD, a few random graphs,
note on some of the graphs how there is a "dull roar" of daily FTD's that hover between $20 million and $100 million value a cluster of those low level but persistant, the seeming to me increasing spikes of amazing values, like close to $900 million.
I'd venture a guess that some shorts are getting more desperate with mounting long term losses, like $60 BILLION plus, but what do I know, i'm just a 70+ year old beginner in the market since the early 80's, but not a player

edit:
It's like a "christmas miracle"
5 reportings, both november 2018, both december 2018 and first 1/2 of january 2019
=>_ZERO_<= FTD's
If you d/l those 5 files, unzip and do a simple text search for tsla, nada, zip, nothing,
do a random on of any others and it pops up
here is link to SEC raw data. I've a mind to (shudder) ask a congress critter to ask as they get more response than mere peons can

"Absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence"
everyone is guilty of something, so always point to the lesser crime and hope nobody notices other stuff

 

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Family photo! Another Q4 contribution. Picked up the MY last month and replaced my M3 w the red one yesterday. The MY still feels more substantial and special compared to the M3. Just feels so much more solid. It’ll be at another level with front and rear castings in Austin. The SC was extremely busy with numerous deliveries scheduled. Saw number of Plaids on the lot too. Looking good for blowout Q4. TSLA is executing well. This SP sale is an absolute Xmas giveaway. I am thinking I should pick up more chairs before Elon is done selling. Will use the omicron fears/macro changes to my advantage next week. Pfizer ceo apparently reported that it’ll be an endemic by end of next year.
 

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Have Oshkosh shares?
Ha ha...Well no but then I have no shares of anything. My extended family might though, it's been a good investment over the last 20 years but other than a few stocks (tesla included) I don't know what they own. I have a small sustainable forestry business that took all of our money to keep afloat through the trump years but in my past I did quite a bit of consulting in the D.C. area and watched Oshkosh closely due to their fights against the entrenched pentagon interests. The reason so many soldiers died or were wounded from IEDs in Iraq was closely tied to those contracts and Oshkosh shook them up a bit. They broke ground for SpaceX and provided a template to win govt contracts they were not supposed to be in the hunt for in the first place.

Tesla should be tangentially aware of what they are doing, They have some engineering smarts and may actually build something interesting. Worth watching in any case. I think it is more telling that GM lost this than that Oshkosh won it.
 
I've not done a Weekend Big Post for a while - so here you go.

First, full disclosure: I am NOT under any kind of an NDA with Tesla at this time, but over the many years I have kept to myself material that I know Tesla would rather not have disseminated except when and how they choose to.

However.....:mad:....in that I am ever more frustrated at having to drive around like my long-deceased mother, in order to maintain a "98" Safety Score - yet it seems to matter not one whit, even with having purchased one of the very first (maybe #1) P100D Ludicrous Model Xs delivered outside California (and, of course, with FSD prepaid).....

...and as it seems everyone else and her aunt has a blog about Tesla, throwing out secrets and photos and all other such -

well, why should I keep mum?

So -

the Tesla Semi, and some information you either haven't known or haven't heard specifically before...or from a source whose validity you do not know:

When you're cruising at 30mph, and you hit the Go Pedal - it smokes! As in: Literally - all four drivers burn rubber as it screams down the road - this is when bobtailed.

Its loss of power is barely discernable when you load your trailer to 80,000 pounds. That is: Like you cannot feel the difference At All.

The driver's seat is comfortable; everything is nicely within reach and the view forward is unparalleled. But: when you're backing up, esp of course in a tight situation, you do miss that view behind you to your left. Of course, that is because of the trade-off: your view to the right is a little bit better, so your view to the left is a little bit worse. But one does miss what one has become accustomed to - at least, if you're human.

It is an astonishing and marvelous creation.

Happy Christmas, all.
I drove my June-2020-built Y with FSD, Premium Connectivity and every form of data sharing activated to Minnesota from Arizona two weeks ago. Somehow, after leaving Arizona, my Safety Score jumped to 99 from 98. So for two weeks I put on approximately 1500 miles with a 99 Safety Score, excitedly waiting for my FSD Beta upgrade. Never got it.

Driving across rural southeastern Colorado early one morning, with almost no one on the road, I plugged into the Trinidad, CO, supercharger, and found my score dropped to 98. I'm heavily dinged on "Unsafe Following," which currently stands at 7.3%. Since activating Safety Score I give people soooo much room in front it's laughable, I slow waaay down when people pass and move in front of me it's obnoxious, and, in its own way, I feel more dangerous/risky the way I drive trying to maintain my 98 score. My "Forced Autopilot Disengagements" and "Forward Collision Warnings" are both zero, "Hard Braking" 0.7%, "Aggressive Turning" 0.1%.

I don't know if Tesla geo-locks FSD Beta or what, but something is amiss, at least with my car or account. I've bought two brand new Teslas, both with FSD, so have spent $16k in the last 3 years on FSD alone. I've never been in an accident of any kind, not even a minor one. Tesla has years of safe driving history with me; I don't know what more I can do.