Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

What may be more amazing than the 308k deliveries is that the New York Jets have a lead over Tom Brady at the start of the 4th Qtr.
So I'm limited to updating the spreadsheet during commercials

So, a waste of time, huh? Watching the game.

 

[jw934]

Let them ride....wild week ahead for sure.

Back in Jan 2021 when Tesla came out with the surprising 2020Q4 numbers, stock took days to reach local peak. I am hoping for the same next week.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The dealerships have got the backs of legacy auto for decades so it's hard for big auto to raise prices vs just letting their dealerships making that money.

Traditionally auto cars are "sold" on the books to the dealerships. But this is all an accounting trick as the "sold cars" were bought with borrowed money by dealers from legacy auto. So it cost lots of interest for cars to sit on lots but this insure that big auto constantly having a down flow of cars "sold" to dealerships to keep the economy of scale moving. So when there's a slow quarter worth of sales, the dealerships end up carrying a good deal of the cost while expanding inventory they don't want but legacy in the background give as much rebates to the customer as possible to help dealers move the cars off the lot (essentially legacy reimburse the dealers which they pass some of that savings to the customers).

So you see now that dealers are having the opposite problem in which they don't have enough cars on lot, it is literally their time to shine and it'll be a total douchebag move if legacy takes away that thunder by rising prices.

Dealerships have been making out like bandits the last year. Used cars sales have been through the roof and the dealerships make a healthy profit on that. Manufacturers, not so much!

 

[The Accountant]

P&L on the left compares Q4 2021 to Q4 2020
P&L on the right compares Q4 2021 to Q3 2021.
- Non-GAAP Earnings more than tripled vs last year ($3B in Q4 2021 vs $0.9B in Q4 2020)
- Tesla grew Non-GAAP Earnings by almost $1B in a mere 3 months from Q3 2021 ($2B) to Q4 2021 ($3B)
btw: I consider my estimates conservative as margins can come in higher than what I have.

My full P&Ls and analysis starts here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

The S/X refresh gave us a unique insight in Q1/Q2 into the strength of Tesla's main business which is the 3/Y and exactly how profitable they are and can be in the future......BUT......S/X back at full production of 25k/quarter with these new price levels will have an outsized impact on earnings...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[The Accountant]

So, a waste of time, huh? Watching the game.

With the stock price increasing, I may buy the New York Jets and an island a piece of land in New York City !
The first thing I do is move the Jets back to New York - maybe buy that Island borough across the river (not Brooklyn, not the Bronx not Queens - one of the other two).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Cyber whistle revenues and profits have exceeded all vehicle sales from
NKLA
RIVN
LCID

...combined!

Dan

 

[15Peter20]

I am blown away, a tad drunk and a bit emotional.

Congratulations and Happy New Year to all here. Thanks for all the great, incisive contributions and analysis, humo(u)r and support through the darker times.

2022: let’s go!

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

P&L on the left compares Q4 2021 to Q4 2020
P&L on the right compares Q4 2021 to Q3 2021.
- Non-GAAP Earnings more than tripled vs last year ($3B in Q4 2021 vs $0.9B in Q4 2020)
- Tesla grew Non-GAAP Earnings by almost $1B in a mere 3 months from Q3 2021 ($2B) to Q4 2021 ($3B)
btw: I consider my estimates conservative as margins can come in higher than what I have.

View attachment 751232

My full P&Ls and analysis starts here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

The S/X refresh gave us a unique insight in Q1/Q2 into the strength of Tesla's main business which is the 3/Y and exactly how profitable they are and can be in the future......BUT......S/X back at full production of 25k/quarter with these new price levels will have an outsized impact on earnings...

teslamotorsclub.com

So, asuming The Accountant is mostly correct, having the operating income a) increase 50% quarter over quarter and b) also just the mere fact of having 18% operating income while being a manufacturing company...

Who does either? And ... who achieves both?

Any previous examples of manufacturing companies doing that ?

Are we just bulls and fans - or is this really as unique as it seems ?

 

[The Accountant]

I am seeing several forecasters on Twitter with non-GAAP EPS >$3.00 vs my $2.70.
I don't have a huge ego so I would absolutely love to see the $3/share.
If we get that, buckle your seat belts.

 

[Singuy]

With the stock price increasing, I may buy the New York Jets and an island !
The first thing I do is move the Jets back to New York - maybe buy that Island across the river.

Committed the TMC sin. We have banned the discussion of buying any kind of land surrounded by water as that signals a sell off which usually takes half a year to recover.

 

[15Peter20]

Committed the TMC sin. We have banned the discussion of buying any kind of land surrounded by water as that signals a sell off which usually takes half a year to recover.

If you buy a ring of water with some rock in the middle: is that acceptable discussion material?

 

[jerry33]

OK - got it.
But still - what is to stop Ford or other car companies from simply raise the price of the cars the sell to the dealers?
I mean, they can clearly see that the demand is there in spades when people are willing to pay huge mark-ups.
I understand that the dealers are making hay - the are profit-driven after all.

What I don't get is why traditional auto is not just raising their prices for EVs.
If they did, the dealers could still do a mark-up, but a smaller one. Legacy auto companies like Ford would then make more money - and thus have more money for all the investments they need for scaling EV production.

Of course, they could do that, but they have the problem that traditional dealers know that EVs will put the majority of them out of business. They also likely know there isn't anything they can do about it but get as much money as they can before that happens. So raised prices on EVs means the dealer just stop ordering.

 

[The Accountant]

Committed the TMC sin. We have banned the discussion of buying any kind of land surrounded by water as that signals a sell off which usually takes half a year to recover.

Going back to Edit the post

 

[EVDRVN]

I heard she is a secret

If you buy a ring of water with some rock in the middle: is that acceptable discussion material?

I think Elon did, he tweets there.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, asuming The Accountant is mostly correct, having the operating income a) increase 50% quarter over quarter and also just the mere fact of having 18% operating income while being a manufacturing company... who does that!?
Any previous examples of manufacturing companies doing that ?

Are we just bulls and fans - or is this really as unique as it seems ?

Infinite TAM, great product, great execution, no competition. Only constraints: raw materials and speed of expansion.

I’m no expert. Did I miss anything?

 

[BornToFly]

Can Curt strike up the band now?

 

[Singuy]

Also I am extremely bullish on FSD revenue. We may see a healthy take rate increase as this is the first quarter with the software having a "soft" major release to the masses.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Also I am extremely bullish on FSD revenue. We may see a healthy take rate increase as this is the first quarter with the software having a "soft" major release to the masses.

It all depends on when Tesla starts to recognize FSD revenue. AFAIK, all that revenue is locked away in liabilities on the balance sheet waiting to be sprung on unsuspecting shorts

 

[Singuy]

It all depends on when Tesla starts to recognize FSD revenue. AFAIK, all that revenue is locked away in liabilities on the balance sheet waiting to be sprung on unsuspecting shorts

They recognize 50% it right away which was what I was referring to. So 300k deliveries plus dou le fsd take rate = more fsd revenue than 2020 for the year.

 

[Todd Burch]

Let’s take a moment to appreciate:

1. $3B for the most part ignores energy , which could contribute 50% to earnings in future years.

2. When Tesla starts recognizing FSD revenue, margins and profits step up significantly…again.