Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

The 'Contact' link in the email is returning a 504 error unfortunately

Probably a DDoS attack by fossil interests. Either that or solar enthusiasts are outraged at this news and leaping to action all at once!

 

[EVDRVN]

Probably a DDoS attack by fossil interests. Either that or solar enthusiasts are outraged at this news and leaping to action all at once!

Everyone should care about this as it impacts every utility user, solar workers, the local economy and Tesla share holders as well!

 

[hitchhiker]

Personally, I try to stay calm while traveling and have found some Uber drivers to be agitated while driving (a continuous state of fight or flight?) and they communicate that stress to me (a bit too aggressive driving and stress pheromones maybe). So I can‘t help thinking there will be a number of people that will adopt early to avoid this even if they aren’t normally ’early adopters.’

I generally agree with you.

But I had an Uber ride to the airport in Lisbon the other day where the guy showed up in a Model 3. It was the most delightful and smooth Uber ride i've had!

 

[UncaNed]

I was surprised that Tesla was notably silent in a massive solar market. Pleased to see this arrive in my inbox from the (not a) PR team.

I just forwarded this info (about Californians taking action) to a few friends I know in CA, asking them to take action, for what it's worth wish I knew how to d do more.

Probably a DDoS attack by fossil interests. Either that or solar enthusiasts are outraged at this news and leaping to action all at once!

BSFH*-
Spins rolodex, randomly stops on: "Sunspots"

*-Bastard Short From Hell

 

[jkirkwood001]

ARK Invest's Monthly mARKet Update Webinar on now with Cathie:

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Special guest Nancy Lazar, old friend of Cathie's, is currently talking about inflation:

 

[bkp_duke]

I was surprised that Tesla was notably silent in a massive solar market. Pleased to see this arrive in my inbox from the (not a) PR team.

View attachment 754617

Tesla's generic wording is pretty bland and non-descript. I modified it in my letter, feel free to copy/modify/use:

Hello,
I just learned about this new solar tax being proposed and I think it is unfair to penalize people just for having solar. The utilities are manipulating the story by saying solar users do not pay their fair share of grid maintenance, but they are conveniently ignoring the fact that rooftop solar, and especially rooftop solar + battery storage helps keep the gird more stable and reduced the amount of utilization of the grid by these customers. We are MORE self-sufficient, not less. The utility monopolies simply want to find a way to keep us dependent upon them, and not become self-reliant. Do the right thing and put a stop to this steep tax on solar.
Regards,

 

[tivoboy]

ARK Invest's Monthly mARKet Update Webinar on now:

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Special guest Nancy Lazar currently talking about inflation:

View attachment 754643

Ironically THEIR headline number for Q2'22 is nearly exactly where MY headline number is.. ~3.7%.. what I have communicated before is "under 4%. They aren't really out on a limb here either.

 

[Discoducky]

ARK Invest's Monthly mARKet Update Webinar on now with Cathie:

Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting

Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise video communications, with an easy, reliable cloud platform for video and audio conferencing, chat, and webinars across mobile, desktop, and room systems. Zoom Rooms is the original software-based conference room solution used around the world in board...

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Special guest Nancy Lazar, old friend of Cathie's, is currently talking about inflation:

View attachment 754643

Seems ARK is predicting deflation for Q3 and Q4. I found that interesting. I'd think supply chain issues would keep that from happening until later in 2023.

 

[kanweg]

Tesla at present sells in the four largest global auto markets and has factories open(ing) in three of them. They sell in Japan (third) but probably will not build there any time soon.

India (5th) has been discussed here and is near to selling and probably some form of factory (most likely a CKD of the design coming from China). After all the biggest seller in India is Maruti Suzuki, that is Suzuki design and partly supplied from outside India.

Brazil (6th) was planned in 2015 and Model 3 reservations were taken at launch. I still have one of those.
Were the actual market be considered it would be Mercosur, since most OEMs have factories in Brazil, some have in Argentina, but all serve the whole fo Mercosur from one of those. They are a single automotive market. The Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay car sales in 2020 were 3,018, 342, which makes the market slightly larger than Germany, hence the 4th largest automotive market.

Lest we ignore the actual market, in 2020 three Mercosur nations of Brazil, Argentina and Chile sold 430,626 vehicles of typical ASP of US$80,000 or above, although the typical US ASP for the same vehicles is around US$50,000.

When we're thinking of next steps for Tesla we should realize that every existing country is far from saturated, even California. Then the markets globally are all barely covered. Even Norway has a huge installed base of ICE that need to be replaced.

For cars and for TE the prospects are amazing. It would be well for us to realize that the faster other BEVs arrive, the more the market will grow. In short we should hope the Tesla market share declines quickly, for that means the addressable market is increasing.

Thus, in Brazil right now there are BEV's from Audi, BMW, BYD, Citroën, Chery, Fiat,JAC,Jaguar, Mercedes, Mini, Peugeot, Porsche, Renault and Volvo. I've probably missed some. Sales are small but BEV sales in 2021 rose 77%. 2022 will grow much more, because these are beginning to move perceptions.
All we need is Tesla to build Mercosur wide Superchargers to drive adoption far more quickly. FWIW, I ddi not list the array of commercial vehicles that is rapidly entering the market. Nor did I mention anything about the rapid growth of utility level wind,solar and battery storage. Nor the phenomenal growth of residential photovoltaics.

This is not specific market advocacy. It is a reminder that we are always understating the prospects of growth. How bullish can one be? Never quite enough!

AFAIK cars imported in Brazil are heavily taxed. Lots of model 3s will become available shortly when their leases end (and the people who leased them can’t buy them back). If Tesla can’t use them for robotaxi, I thought it might be a good idea to export them to Brazil. While this comes with the cost of transporting, for Tesla the advantage would be that the cars can be monetized. The cars would be more affordable to Brazilians. Would driving a second hand car be acceptable for Brazilians in the expected price range? Resale in the country where they were leased might put price pressure on new vehicles. No such problem if they are exported to Brazil. It is important however that the import tax isn’t based on the value as new. What do you think of such a plan?

 

[Curt Renz]

Pete Najarian on TSLA options activity.

CNBC - hour ago:

 

[tivoboy]

Seems ARK is predicting deflation for Q3 and Q4. I found that interesting. I'd think supply chain issues would keep that from happening until later in 2023.

Biggest single driver of inflation has BEEN used car prices (nearly 30% of the overall), then energy, then some travel and services and THEN food, other tracked goods.. so both FED and economists think these first few big drivers will come off and actually FALL overall to Y/Y compares, so yes it could appear to be deflationary, or dis-inflationary... but Cathy does seem to think that software will eat the world and overall lower pricing for many many things, causing actual economic deflation that isn't expected. I DO think this is possible over a longer term, but it's not this year or in the next five.

 

[tivoboy]

AFAIK cars imported in Brazil are heavily taxed. Lots of model 3s will become available shortly when their leases end (and the people who leased them can’t buy them back). If Tesla can’t use them for robotaxi, I thought it might be a good idea to export them to Brazil. While this comes with the cost of transporting, for Tesla the advantage would be that the cars can be monetized. The cars would be more affordable to Brazilians. Would driving a second hand car be acceptable for Brazilians in the expected price range? Resale in the country where they were leased might put price pressure on new vehicles. No such problem if they are exported to Brazil. It is important however that the import tax isn’t based on the value as new. What do you think of such a plan?

nearly 100% or more in import duty on new cars doesn't qualify as heavily taxed, it classifies as usurious.

Most big iron importers made moves years ago to overcome this. I helped setup a kitting operation for a large global OEM nearly 25 years ago now, just so it could classify as "locally made" for the largest percentage of duties. Back then, to put 1B+ into a factory that wasn't wholly owned by the company seemed a big risk, but it paid off sooner than projected in the end.

 

[Ogre]

AFAIK cars imported in Brazil are heavily taxed. Lots of model 3s will become available shortly when their leases end (and the people who leased them can’t buy them back). If Tesla can’t use them for robotaxi, I thought it might be a good idea to export them to Brazil. While this comes with the cost of transporting, for Tesla the advantage would be that the cars can be monetized. The cars would be more affordable to Brazilians. Would driving a second hand car be acceptable for Brazilians in the expected price range? Resale in the country where they were leased might put price pressure on new vehicles. No such problem if they are exported to Brazil. It is important however that the import tax isn’t based on the value as new. What do you think of such a plan?

I think Tesla might just skip the hassle and sell them here in the US. They won’t have any problems selling them here quickly and at a reasonable profit. Demand for EVs is so high right now there will be zero issues with moving them.

Do used cars skip the tariffs? That might be an interesting angle if so.

 

[garrett5688]

AFAIK cars imported in Brazil are heavily taxed. Lots of model 3s will become available shortly when their leases end (and the people who leased them can’t buy them back). If Tesla can’t use them for robotaxi, I thought it might be a good idea to export them to Brazil. While this comes with the cost of transporting, for Tesla the advantage would be that the cars can be monetized. The cars would be more affordable to Brazilians. Would driving a second hand car be acceptable for Brazilians in the expected price range? Resale in the country where they were leased might put price pressure on new vehicles. No such problem if they are exported to Brazil. It is important however that the import tax isn’t based on the value as new. What do you think of such a plan?

From which market? Regarding safety and charging standards…

 

[EVDRVN]

Tesla's generic wording is pretty bland and non-descript. I modified it in my letter, feel free to copy/modify/use:

Hello,
I just learned about this new solar tax being proposed and I think it is unfair to penalize people just for having solar. The utilities are manipulating the story by saying solar users do not pay their fair share of grid maintenance, but they are conveniently ignoring the fact that rooftop solar, and especially rooftop solar + battery storage helps keep the gird more stable and reduced the amount of utilization of the grid by these customers. We are MORE self-sufficient, not less. The utility monopolies simply want to find a way to keep us dependent upon them, and not become self-reliant. Do the right thing and put a stop to this steep tax on solar.
Regards,

Not just more stable it saved utilities from buying power at crazy rates during high peaks but now they have what they want. I'm sure that if PGE and others are so anti-solar we can certainly all turn it off during the summer for a day and watch how fast that impacts the grid. In fact the solar customers ironically have huge leverage if they do a solar shut out with 12,000 MW on line. PGE loves to turn off power I wonder how they would feel if we all cut our solar? Regardless they are breaking their contracts to existing long term customers that paid quite a bit 15 years ago and modeled returns based on that, this puts Tesla customers also in contact violation. No sympathy based on their existing rates and if we paid rates like other states no one would care. One state it can be $5 to charge a 3 and in CA more than $30. The FUD will fly if this passes but it will be real.

 

[Lessmog]

Not just more stable it saved utilities from buying power at crazy rates during high peaks but now they have what they want. I'm sure that if PGE and others are so anti-solar we can certainly all turn it off during the summer for a day and watch how fast that impact the grid. In fact the solar customers ironically have huge leverage if they do a solar shut out with 12,000 MW on line. PGE loves to turn off power I wonder how they would feel if we all cut our solar? Regardless they are breaking their contracts to existing long term customers that paid quite a bit 15 years ago and modeled returns based on that, this puts Tesla customers also in contact violation. No sympathy based on their existing rates and if we paid rates like other states no one would care. One state it can be $5 to charge a 3 and in CA more than $30. The FUD will fly if this passes but it will be real.

Actually not a bad plan. EV-, solar- and Tesla-fans are probably pretty well organised to pull off a significant demo of power (or the inverse) with a concerted, synched Denial-of-use attack on the utilities.

I mean, just to show who's in charge ...

 

[bkp_duke]

Actually not a bad plan. EV-, solar- and Tesla-fans are probably pretty well organised to pull off a significant demo of power (or the inverse) with a concerted, synched Denial-of-use attack on the utilities.

I mean, just to show who's in charge ...

SDG&E already doesn't get my power typically. I am 98.5% self-sufficient in the past year. I export only surplus to their grid after my powerwalls are full and both cars fully charged up. I don't touch their grid in the evening or overnight unless there are multiple grey days and I can't get the powerwalls charged up.

Believe me, I hate these utilities with an unbridled passion and I LOVE that Tesla is taking this on and encouraging their customers to make their voices heard.

 

[EVDRVN]

SDG&E already doesn't get my power typically. I am 98.5% self-sufficient in the past year. I export only surplus to their grid after my powerwalls are full and both cars fully charged up. I don't touch their grid in the evening or overnight unless there are multiple grey days and I can't get the powerwalls charged up.

Believe me, I hate these utilities with an unbridled passion and I LOVE that Tesla is taking this on and encouraging their customers to make their voices heard.

Lucky you, I wish I had the capacity to do so but I can flip a solar cut off switch!

 

[bkp_duke]

Not just more stable it saved utilities from buying power at crazy rates during high peaks but now they have what they want. I'm sure that if PGE and others are so anti-solar we can certainly all turn it off during the summer for a day and watch how fast that impacts the grid. In fact the solar customers ironically have huge leverage if they do a solar shut out with 12,000 MW on line. PGE loves to turn off power I wonder how they would feel if we all cut our solar? Regardless they are breaking their contracts to existing long term customers that paid quite a bit 15 years ago and modeled returns based on that, this puts Tesla customers also in contact violation. No sympathy based on their existing rates and if we paid rates like other states no one would care. One state it can be $5 to charge a 3 and in CA more than $30. The FUD will fly if this passes but it will be real.

More I think of this, I think it is time for Tesla to register to become a power provider in California. They could then instantly recruit all of their solar and powerwall customers into a virtual power plant and wreak havoc on the financials of the traditional utilities.

Wishful thinking, as I don't think CPUC would allow that . . . but still.

 

[Lessmog]

SDG&E already doesn't get my power typically. I am 98.5% self-sufficient in the past year. I export only surplus to their grid after my powerwalls are full and both cars fully charged up. I don't touch their grid in the evening or overnight unless there are multiple grey days and I can't get the powerwalls charged up.

Believe me, I hate these utilities with an unbridled passion and I LOVE that Tesla is taking this on and encouraging their customers to make their voices heard.

Sliding off-topic here, but.
Supposing (just supposin') that a lot of irate fools in CAL decide to simultaneously at some opportune time disconnect their solar panels and start charging their EV's and turning on AC during a mid-day surge just to make a political point. Wouldn't that put a fire under the utilities, in a manner of speach?

I must emphasise here that this is totally conjecture on my part and an experiment of thought. Never would I condone such since it could actually start fires. /disclammer