Thanks. Like most of us here I’m just trying to keep my eyes on the bigger picture, amidst the cacophony of noise, and an SP being thrown around like dice at a craps table.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Human emotions are a complex cocktail of electro-chemical reactions that are still not well understood but one thing is certain - they tend to work in direct opposition to your goals as an investor whose underlying goal is (logically) to compound wealth over time.
The funny thing is, it's amazing how quickly the veil of funk can drop away simply by stepping back and looking at the big picture. The funk can be avoided entirely if one avoids the natural tendency to look ever closer, and on ever smaller timescales, at the details of the process and the day-to-day share price. Look at your shares as fractional ownership chunks of the companies you have invested in, not as easily traded certificates with precise dollar values. By stepping back from the day-to-day trading activities and looking toward likely futures, you will find a new perspective, based on longer time perspectives, that put your investments, and the growth of them over time, in a new, more accurate light. Who would not want to own a part of a company who is, effectively, creating a new, better future. Especially when the path to that future is so strong it will likely be highly profitable.
The reason I am invested in TSLA so heavily is not because I know it will generate the highest possible returns in the short-term, but because the risk of the company not generating strong, long-term growth is very low. Investing is largely a game of avoiding mistakes and holding the course. My assets are more secure (and thus more valuable) than if I had the same amount in a company with inferior management and inferior goals and that didn't have as clear of a path to long-term success.
Buying a stock for the short-term is placing your faith and trust in markets, the process run by Wall Street. Buying for the long-term is placing your faith and trust in the management of that company and their vision. The markets have cloudy vision that is comprised of the vision of the sum of its participants, many of whom are completely untrust-worthy. That ensures the vision of the market is not superior to that of an individual with better than average vision, it is diluted by the law of averages. Never use the market price to judge your success, at least not on a short-term, granular level. I believe the vision of the small group of people running Tesla is superior to that of the markets and will win in the end. By focusing on the big picture, not the markets, you will minimize the non-productive electro-chemical cocktail called emotions that cause investors to do dumb things.
And here come the TSLA bears on CNBC. Like clockwork - this a a rinse-and-repeat for CNBC. And, CNBC has picked any negative sound bites from Elon from yesterday's earnings call and basically played them on a loop.
Disagree. If speed of reducing dependency on oil is also important, than yes FSD is part of the mission, *salt*.
(Edit: should have said "Accelerate the transition to sustainable energy" which is the mission exactly.
Cheers!
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I realized waiting for FSD rains on people's investment thesis because at least 1/4 of you have no faith in AI it seems.
Oh well.
Oh well.
You thought today was going to be a green day after the 3% dump after Elon said FSD being the main driver of growth post 2024? The only thing keeping us from gap filling at 843 right now is good macros.
Elon likely should not have been on the call yesterday. It set expectations for a big announcement for the call, which just never happened. It took the focus off of what was a very good quarter and what was good forward guidance. We are paying the price for that today. Hopefully, once the market settles and realizes that Tesla is still leaps-and-bounds ahead of the competition in a space with explosive growth, we will see the stock reflect the reality of the future of Tesla.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I remember the days a few years back when all the market cared about was fundamentals. 'Tesla can't make a profit." "Tesla is a cash burning machine."
Funny how now they could care less that Tesla has grown into a cash making machine. Their fundamentals are damn near flawless and the stuff other OEMs drool over. All they care about is no new model this year? No new Cybertruck news? Pretty clear they have absolutely no understanding of FSD and it's implications.
What the absolute f***?
Dan
Funny how now they could care less that Tesla has grown into a cash making machine. Their fundamentals are damn near flawless and the stuff other OEMs drool over. All they care about is no new model this year? No new Cybertruck news? Pretty clear they have absolutely no understanding of FSD and it's implications.
What the absolute f***?
Dan
For me, it has less to do with AI and FSD being amazing. I think it is!
It has more to do with the greater pressing problem of the intent of the mission for Tesla: to move the world to sustainability faster.
Does AI/FSD do that over building out EV cars and pushing the other automakers to do so? If both are being run in parallel, are resources being distracted rather than focused in highest priority items in the organization? As an investor, I'm trying to pay attention to this as Tesla gets bigger (now ~$1T market cap rather than $5B) and works to continue the mission until its done ... and how well it does that.
I think this is a bigger problem as Tesla, as an organization, grows in terms of employees. The people fighting FUD on twitter is super helpful. Though, its super distracting away from the mission for sure as it might affect any and every employee, regardless of their position in the company, from doing the best job possible towards the mission.
I don't believe market caring right now about Tesla's qrowth post 2024. They are way too shortsighted. With those numbers and guidance for this year, the spring is extremely coiled.
Today is proof Elon speaking on the call is always a bad thing. 
So sad that CNBC has turned into a manipulation machine. It was kind of bad a decade ago but is now the pro wrestling equivalent of a financial news channel. It sucks for people who look at the price daily too, but for long term accumulators it really does not make much difference in the end.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is one of the specific items that Moody's called for in their recent credit upgrade letter:
Moody's upgrades Tesla's corporate family rating to Ba1; outlook positive
Don't look for a credit upgrade to "Investment Grade" from the geniuses at Moody's. That wouldn't sit well with the shortzes.
Huh?
Vehicles growing at 50% YoY (or more depending on demand)
Storage growing to TWh
Software growing to be more profitable than vehicles
Roadster, Cybertruck, Semi, are 2023 onward growth. New factory(ies) are growth 2024 onward.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think in an era of unpredictable supply of components that go into making the products, Tesla has wisely chosen to order the components further in advance, to carry more inventory as a buffer against delivery delays. This is much more valuable at this point of Tesla's growth than having more efficient movement of cashflows. And the production and delivery numbers, combined with the financial results, prove this.
Good job using one more avenue to prove what a clown GJ is.
I tend to agree, I think he just couldnt take not being on the last call. He made it sound like he would be on the call to really have a product rollout which honestly a call like this was not the correct place for it and he didnt really do one.Today is proof Elon speaking on the call is always a bad thing.
The call was a disaster. The tone was all wrong. They should have kept driving the point that while there may be more supply chain challenges, they are confident in their 50% growth target, the two new factories have started production, and earnings will be even higher this year. They should literally have said that at the end of every question instead of sounding negative.
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