Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Nobody supports the idea that humanoid robots are around the corner. NOBODY. I am not arguing on the NN side of things. I am sure on the synthesis of mechanical & NN side of things. The thing that makes a human so neat just from a science pov. So lets look at it from an investor POV. Could you put any value today?

The goal of the society that promotes humanoid robotics is to be there by 2040 and to have robots play world class soccer by 2050. Literally not a single researcher on the planet thinks it will be there by 202X. None. It's not that I had to do much searching to confirm that since I last looked at it all things have continued at the same pace they had been, which is good solid progress, year by year with thousands of researchers across the world contributing. Korea to Japan to Germany to USA. I do not see Tesla having any special competency and as an investor Eyes Wide Open. A lot of people have been working on this for decades. The fundamental science and research is not held by tesla, it was not discovered by tesla and Tesla won't own any specific competency there.

So, my phd was in dynamic modeling of humanoids (more for trying to mimic humans than making robots) so I have some experience and opinions for why Tesla is well suited here:

1. The historical fundamental research will not matter much.

The history is based on developing the "equations of motion" that prescribe the state of a robot which is very complicated math. Basically a whole lot of equations / matrix math that tells you what joint torques to apply to keep the robot balanced given any state of positioning and velocity of movement. Except they are very hard to get working well because the real world is different from the simulated world and it is very hard to model correct the interaction forces with the ground and other objects.

Enter neural nets. Much like classic computer vision techniques fell aside to deep learning CV, much of the classical control of robots will give in to deep learning. And all those ressearchers will not be happy about that.

There are two many variabilities and complexities in actually robot dynamics vs what classical modeling can do, and way toward superior robust performance of control logic is going to be through statistical learning.

Guess which companies are going to have the resources for provide the best chance for advancement in statistical learning for robots? The big tech companies, Tesla, Facebook, Google.


2. Hardware advantage

The cost advantage Tesla will create is obvious vs any robotics startup or any other tech company. What about sensors and performance? Well batteries and computer brain - advantage Tesla. Engineering to minimize latency between limb sensors and 'brain' - advantage Tesla. Does someone have some novel pressure / tactile sensor that is superior and game changer? Tesla just buys them.

3. Data

Kind of similar to FSD though not as much, superior robotic performance will happen when there is a fleet of child robots are deployed in some capacity, fail, and have that data transmitted back to a server for enhance learning. Update firmware until they become teenagers, etc... This sort of robotic learning at a fleet level isn't done yet, because no one had the capabiilty to do all the pieces. Ahem.


The hubris of the robotics community will not stop Tesla from succeeding. They have all the pieces.

Instead of asking the inverse, I would ask "Where does Tesla not have an advantage in modern day robotics"?

 

[dww12]

Yahoo showing correct P/E this AM.

 

[larmor]

New electric vehicle sales triple in Australia with Tesla outstripping other makers

US company’s Model 3 makes up more than half the electric cars sold in Australia in 2021, as EV market share grows to 1.95%

www.theguardian.com

Those 26 EVs from GM can only go so far.

 

[Paul_SF]

LFG!!!!!

 

[elasalle]

looks like MM's have more $$ to make from all those who bought PUTS pas two weeks
they now covered and own the Shares they sold short ... playas
(+ there are the ones who can now sell you calls )

(needs macro support ... )

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's "technicals" from the Open, plus a chart of the Pre-Market action:

Note: TSLA up to $879.77 at 09:35 hrs

Cheers!

 

[CaliBear1]

I have two interests in following the exploits of Tesla (which includes spending inordinate time reading this forum) : as an investor and as a futurist. Most of us here have similar interests, and it’s important for all of us to keep those motivations from blurring.

As an investor, I try to only look at what activities Tesla is doing that are likely to generate meaningful and predictable profits in the next two years, because that is all the stock market can put a value on. So I agree with the posters here who don’t think FSD, bots, etc are currently relevant to anyone’s investment hypothesis.

As a futurist, someone who is excited by future human progress and wants to play an active role in it, I am mesmerized by Elon’s future potential. Nobody in human history has combined:

1) a first principles/engineering mind, dedicated to relentless innovation;

2) the passion, persistence, courage and grit for tackling the biggest challenges, not for great wealth but for human progress;

3) a track record of entrepreneurial success;

4) an ability to attract the best talent globally;

5) billions of dollars of his own money, billions more being generated by his companies and billions more from those who would capitalize any project he wanted to launch;

6) a personal megaphone through Twitter that enables him to communicate directly with consumers, thought leaders and potential talent.

Those of us that have found our way to this forum are sharing the experience of watching human history unfold in real time, with accelerated progress. And if we don’t get too greedy and can stay focused on near term earnings, we can also profit from investing in that future, one year at a time.

Love this post Sancho! It belongs in the section for posts that send shivers up/down the spine. Oh wait, we don’t have that here…yet.

 

[Big Time]

Is it 900 yet?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I have no opinion about relative success in the future. That said, the fossil fuel business is simple, linear, and price elastic, so whatever must be spent to delay or prevent Tesla success will be spent, and drop down to the gallon of gas price. Stated another way, this is a zero sum game, and the loser dies. In 2014, I realized that my Tesla S 60 was at least three times more energy efficient than an ICE vehicle, and other factors (parts count, maintenance, etc.) favored the Tesla over an ICE. Tesla must therefore win in an efficient market over time. The job of the ICE/fossil folks is to prevent an efficient market. I understand that one of the features of historical Afghan warlord disputes is to fight a little, negotiate a lot, and then to arrange a relatively bloodless resolution. That cannot happen with Tesla: there must the blood in the streets and there must be losers. There cannot be a negotiation and there will be losers. A simple risk/reward model suggests that fossil fuel will spend up to every dollar they have to protect their income stream. Buckle your seatbelts.

I disagree with that, at least to some extent. Even if the transportation market goes 100% EV, there will still be a demand for petroleum products. Lubricants, chemicals, medicines, plastics. And I expect some segments of the ICE market will remain that way for a long time. Given the short-ish range of EVs just when operated at highway speeds (say 80mph plus), I really don't see them as practical for heavy construction equipment or agriculture, where diesels are operated at or near rated power hour after hour, for a long, long time (and yes, I know both segments are investigating BE power). Still, petroleum companies will be dramatically smaller as demand is reduced, and some won't survive.

Thing is, those companies have a lot of really smart people working for them, and have a large, established infrastructure. If they can make money putting EV charging stations in their truck stops, they will. Some already do. I saw an article the other day saying BP in Europe made nearly as much per station off EV charging as they were per pump from gas already. Lets face it-it's a lot easier to generate and distribute electrons than gas. No dealing with hostile countries. no drilling rigs, particularly deep ocean, no supertanker fleet, no refineries, no pipelines, no tankers to deliver fuel to stations, no underground fuel tanks to maintain, monitor or deal with leaks. Just a generating station of one form or another and some transformers, wires and switchgear. I expect that you'll see the "oil companies" (which are actually "energy companies") migrate in time to gain some traction in some portion of the electric generating and distribution industry.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Scare retail to death, swoop in and buy up all the shares. Enjoy the ride to $1500. These guys have a good plan!

 

[Singuy]

Welcome to the third day post earnings. PM is most likely loading up today.

Looking for a 900+ close today, then 960+ close, and most importantly over 1k close.

 

[inconel]

I think he is saying the “disruption“ model is not applicable because there is no existing humanoid robot model to disrupt.

I think he is correct. There is no humanoid robot model to disrupt. The "only" thing Optimus will disrupt is the "small" market of any businesses that employ human labor...

 

[2daMoon]

Having to face the end of the weekend seemed somewhat trepidatious over my initial coffee.

My anxiety over this now seems to be subsiding.

Go longs, and followers of the Big Boing Theory!

 

[Rarity]

To better visualize these areas, here is the Exterior view of Giga Shanghai provided in the 2021 Q4 Investors Letter (Page 23), with my annotations in green:

View attachment 761694

Cheers!

We've visited this before, but what is the chain of information that makes you think the earthworks to the Northeast of the gigafactory is surcharging for more Tesla buildings?

I agree that they aren't growing watermelons there. And the earthworks are contiguous to Tesla's main plant. And that Tesla has huge ambitions. And that Shanghai will do what it can to accommodate those ambitions. But it runs counter to the planning documents that you collated last year.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Surprised by the mustang machE numbers in Norway. Good to have competition I guess. I am predicting numbers will be drastically different by December Ford need EV sales in EU for co2 fine reasons and Norway is the easiest country to sell EVs in...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Looks like the "experts" and WS might be figuring out what we've been discussing. Earnings and growth matter, doubling capacity matters. Humanoid robots and even FSD are gravy-but gravy that have the potential to make us a lot of money if they work out. And frankly, even if they don't-the growth of the auto segment alone justifies the current P/E.

 

[Singuy]

Looks like the "experts" and WS might be figuring out what we've been discussing. Earnings and growth matter, doubling capacity matters. Humanoid robots and even FSD are gravy-but gravy that have the potential to make us a lot of money if they work out. And frankly, even if they don't-the growth of the auto segment alone justifies the current P/E.

The only thing what this looks like is the drop post earnings was pre-determined to wash out the call buyers. Now it's time to wash out all the put buyers. When those with TA know how can predict price action with almost 100% success rate, then you know this is rigged BS.

 

[nativewolf]

So, my phd was in dynamic modeling of humanoids (more for trying to mimic humans than making robots) so I have some experience and opinions for why Tesla is well suited here:

1. The historical fundamental research will not matter much.

The history is based on developing the "equations of motion" that prescribe the state of a robot which is very complicated math. Basically a whole lot of equations / matrix math that tells you what joint torques to apply to keep the robot balanced given any state of positioning and velocity of movement. Except they are very hard to get working well because the real world is different from the simulated world and it is very hard to model correct the interaction forces with the ground and other objects.

Enter neural nets. Much like classic computer vision techniques fell aside to deep learning CV, much of the classical control of robots will give in to deep learning. And all those ressearchers will not be happy about that.

There are two many variabilities and complexities in actually robot dynamics vs what classical modeling can do, and way toward superior robust performance of control logic is going to be through statistical learning.

Guess which companies are going to have the resources for provide the best chance for advancement in statistical learning for robots? The big tech companies, Tesla, Facebook, Google.


2. Hardware advantage

The cost advantage Tesla will create is obvious vs any robotics startup or any other tech company. What about sensors and performance? Well batteries and computer brain - advantage Tesla. Engineering to minimize latency between limb sensors and 'brain' - advantage Tesla. Does someone have some novel pressure / tactile sensor that is superior and game changer? Tesla just buys them.

3. Data

Kind of similar to FSD though not as much, superior robotic performance will happen when there is a fleet of child robots are deployed in some capacity, fail, and have that data transmitted back to a server for enhance learning. Update firmware until they become teenagers, etc... This sort of robotic learning at a fleet level isn't done yet, because no one had the capabiilty to do all the pieces. Ahem.


The hubris of the robotics community will not stop Tesla from succeeding. They have all the pieces.

Instead of asking the inverse, I would ask "Where does Tesla not have an advantage in modern day robotics"?

I agree with you on the hubris, folks at Boston dynamics thought very well of themselves and I leave it at that.

To be clear I am not arguing against Tesla being successful, just to temper expectations of timing on impact and that the cone of uncertainty is high

 

[nativewolf]

Looks like the "experts" and WS might be figuring out what we've been discussing. Earnings and growth matter, doubling capacity matters. Humanoid robots and even FSD are gravy-but gravy that have the potential to make us a lot of money if they work out. And frankly, even if they don't-the growth of the auto segment alone justifies the current P/E.

That is it

 

[saniflash]

The only thing what this looks like is the drop post earnings was pre-determined to wash out the call buyers. Now it's time to wash out all the put buyers. When those with TA know how can predict price action with almost 100% success rate, then you know this is rigged BS.

makes sense, with TSLA being the underlying with the biggest OI, the tail wagging the dog.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think he is correct. There is no humanoid robot model to disrupt. The "only" thing Optimus will disrupt is the "small" market of any businesses that employ human labor...

... and the flufferbot industry.

Denny Crane!