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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Desperation breeds strange bedfellows. Fear and greed affect human behavior in the real world. It's not always rational but that is not particularly significant in this context.

There are a number of principles at play here that can lead to a desire to keep TSLA down.

TSLA share price is a powerful symbol. It can signal "success" and success can breed more success (people defecting from ICE to EV). The people who want to harm TSLA think it is a delicate phenomenon that can be slowed (or even snuffed out) by taking the halo away. Never mind that it's a wrong-headed notion. They view the desire to get into an EV as somewhat faddish and want the popularity of the movement to stall sooner than they think it will if they don't expose the fad for what it is. They never believed the EV movement had real "legs", at least not in the near-term timeframe.

Anything that that can potentially slow down the transition to EV's means billions in lost oil sales delayed to a later date. That means more profit now for big oil who has always found it important to focus on earning of the next quarter and the rest of the year. A smallish drop in demand has an outsized drop in oil price. And a moderate drop in oil price has an outsized effect on profits. It's a cascading series of impacts they believe needs to slowed down at the source. Money matters.

Anything that can slow down the transition to EV's gives multi-billion dollar dealership franchises as well as smaller mom-n-pop dealerships more time to prepare for an all-EV world. It potentially gives legacy auto manufacturing time to "catch up" to the leader. High prices for F and GM are good at giving this illusion legitimacy as much as a lower share price for TSLA helps stem the bleeding. Never mind that these are wrong-headed analyses, perceptions matter.

TSLA share price is not behaving as market makers expected, it is supposed to come back to 'reality'. As it continues to climb, it increasingly threatens billions of dollars of long-term options that are not fully hedged for prices on the high side. They can see strong TSLA earning do not bode well for their own "max pain" (which is the opposite of what we think of as "max pain"). TSLA share price action has not fit the predictive models based upon hundreds of previous high-flyers. This matters to their performance as market-makers in options markets and keeping TSLA share price in check can potentially help prevent TSLA from becoming an even more popular bull phenomenon. Anyone who thinks this doesn't matter needs to get their head examined.

TSLA success makes many people very unhappy. You can bet your sweet bottom this affects people's behavior across the board. I've long known that the share price of any given company is largely a reflection of public perceptions of that company. All stocks are ultimately valued by humans who make decisions based upon the entire body of perceptions around that company. Damage those perceptions, damage the share price. And damage the share price, damage the perception of that company. The two are inseparable.

Let's leave the naivety where it belongs, in the circular file with all the other unsupported conventional thinking based on nothing more than the misguided belief that the world is fair and just and not impacted by greed or bad actors.
Are some traders greedy and bad actors? Absolutely!

Do some of these bad, greedy traders have other agendas relating to the company? Maybe some, hard to prove.

Is the trading behavior of TSLA significantly and persistently impacted by any such bad actors with agendas against the company? I highly doubt it. There are just too many traders in a juicy stock like TSLA who have no agenda other than making money. Day to day, week to week, the trillions of dollars in this casino are as indifferent to what happens to Tesla the company as roulette gamblers are to red vs black.

And if I’m wrong and there is a cabal trying to depress the SP to somehow harm the company or other agenda, they are failing miserably. The market cap the last I checked was close to a trillion dollars. Is the SP currently at a discount to fair market value? I think so, but how does that discount serve any nefarious agenda other than making trading profits?
 
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Desperation breeds strange bedfellows. Fear and greed affect human behavior in the real world. It's not always rational but that is not particularly significant in this context.

There are a number of principles at play here that can lead to a desire to keep TSLA down.

TSLA share price is a powerful symbol. It can signal "success" and success can breed more success (people defecting from ICE to EV). The people who want to harm TSLA think it is a delicate phenomenon that can be slowed (or even snuffed out) by taking the halo away. Never mind that it's a wrong-headed notion. They view the desire to get into an EV as somewhat faddish and want the popularity of the movement to stall sooner than they think it will if they don't expose the fad for what it is. They never believed the EV movement had real "legs", at least not in the near-term timeframe.

Anything that that can potentially slow down the transition to EV's means billions in lost oil sales delayed to a later date. That means more profit now for big oil who has always found it important to focus on earning of the next quarter and the rest of the year. A smallish drop in demand has an outsized drop in oil price. And a moderate drop in oil price has an outsized effect on profits. It's a cascading series of impacts they believe needs to slowed down at the source. Money matters.

Anything that can slow down the transition to EV's gives multi-billion dollar dealership franchises as well as smaller mom-n-pop dealerships more time to prepare for an all-EV world. It potentially gives legacy auto manufacturing time to "catch up" to the leader. High prices for F and GM are good at giving this illusion legitimacy as much as a lower share price for TSLA helps stem the bleeding. Never mind that these are wrong-headed analyses, perceptions matter.

TSLA share price is not behaving as market makers expected, it is supposed to come back to 'reality'. As it continues to climb, it increasingly threatens billions of dollars of long-term options that are not fully hedged for prices on the high side. They can see strong TSLA earning do not bode well for their own "max pain" (which is the opposite of what we think of as "max pain"). TSLA share price action has not fit the predictive models based upon hundreds of previous high-flyers. This matters to their performance as market-makers in options markets and keeping TSLA share price in check can potentially help prevent TSLA from becoming an even more popular bull phenomenon. Anyone who thinks this doesn't matter needs to get their head examined.

TSLA success makes many people very unhappy. You can bet your sweet bottom this affects people's behavior across the board. I've long known that the share price of any given company is largely a reflection of public perceptions of that company. All stocks are ultimately valued by humans who make decisions based upon the entire body of perceptions around that company. Damage those perceptions, damage the share price. And damage the share price, damage the perception of that company. The two are inseparable.

Let's leave the naivety where it belongs, in the circular file with all the other unsupported conventional thinking based on nothing more than the misguided belief that the world is fair and just and not impacted by greed or bad actors.
An unpopular way to fix this (I think) would be to reduce the share count and force the price of option premiums to go up. This would reduce the number of options traded and mitigate the volatile effects of Delta hedging. A drastic attempt at this would be a reverse split, but I'd put a 0% chance if that happening with TSLA
 
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I'm so happy I'm going to be traveling and on the go over the next 2 months cause it seems very clear to me that this thing is going to be pinned between it's 100 day and 200 day moving average until Q1's P/D report. Volume already drying up and no support at 900. Jan China numbers might give a boost but then I can already see Feb China numbers being FUD due to the combination of Chinese New Year and Feb being a short month. Seems like no Berlin announcement until mid to late February. And having thought more about if Tesla does just blend Fremont/Austin Y production, then there will be no delivery event at Austin. So pretty much have to wait until Q1 P/D report to get official status of Berlin and Austin making deliveries.

I pretty much expect a repeat of the first half of 2021, just a higher starting point and also about half of the time. So instead of that consolidation period being 6-7 months (Jan to July 2021), I think we're looking at 3-4 months (Jan to March/April of this year), simply because Tesla's earnings are at too large of scale now to keep it capped for much longer.

I'm rather surprised wall st/hedge funds/MM's are willing or wanting to let the P/E multiple become so compressed. It's Forward P/E is 90 now. If I'm right about Q1 GAAP EPS being $3+, that Forward P/E drops to 60. It makes the stock MUCH more predictable and puts the stock in a trend where the stock is continually forced higher, especially if Tesla blows out earnings estimates on every quarter going forward.......essentially becoming much more like Apple going forward when it comes to trading action.
 
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An unpopular way to fix this (I think) would be to reduce the share count and force the price of option premiums to go up. This would reduce the number of options traded and mitigate the volatile effects of Delta hedging. A drastic attempt at this would be a reverse split, but I'd put a 0% chance if that happening with TSLA
I was actually just going to post the opposite. Dramatically split the stock to make shares more "affordable" to retail traders. One of the biggest false attractions of options is their "affordability" relative to a stock whose shares are often $1000+.
 
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I'm so happy I'm going to be traveling and on the go over the next 2 months cause it seems very clear to me that this thing is going to be pinned between it's 100 day and 200 day moving average until Q1's P/D report. Volume already drying up and no support at 900. Jan China numbers might give a boost but then I can already see Feb China numbers being FUD due to the combination of Chinese New Year and Feb being a short month. Seems like no Berlin announcement until mid to late February. And having thought more about if Tesla does just blend Fremont/Austin Y production, then there will be no delivery event at Austin. So pretty much have to wait until Q1 P/D report to get official status of Berlin and Austin making deliveries.

I pretty much expect a repeat of the first half of 2021, just a higher starting point and also about half of the time. So instead of that consolidation period being 6-7 months (Jan to July 2021), I think we're looking at 3-4 months (Jan to March/April of this year), simply because Tesla's earnings at too large of scale now to keep it capped for much longer.

I'm rather surprised wall st/hedge funds/MM's are willing or wanting to let the P/E multiple become so compressed. It makes the stock MUCH more predictable and puts the stock in a trend where the stock is continually forced higher, especially if Tesla blows out earnings estimates on every quarter going forward.......essentially becoming much more like Apple going forward.

This is a little premature in my opinion. Let's see what the market does as a whole. Pretty hard to keep TSLA down if we resume the bull trend at a macro level.
 
This is very accurate and my experience as well. It was ridiculous and everyone knew it, but those are the rules so what else can be done? :p

People who have never worked around unions in the U.S. have no idea...

An example: In the 1960s, my dad had a self-operated Xerox machine to make photocopies in his law office. Twenty years later, I worked on-site for a customer that had a large number of unionized workers. There were no photocopy machines for the individual offices. They were not allowed. You had to walk down the hall, wait in a long line, and give your paper to the union photocopy operator to make your copies. This absurd situation finally resolved itself as folks got desktop computers and needed, or perhaps demanded, to do 'desktop publishing'.

What does this have to do with Tesla? Compare the same Fremont plant under GM and NUMMI vs Tesla. I think Tesla is now producing more cars/year there than GM and Toyota ever did. (And the former nearby Ford plant in Fremont is now a shopping mall.)
 
Some of the headlines today are beyond bonkers. I won’t link anything, but article by an Ananya Bhattacharya:

“Why Does Tesla Keep Recalling Cars?”

First paragraph:

“ If you buy a Tesla, there’s a good chance the company will need it back to fix a serious problem. Nearly 1 million cars have been recalled in the company’s history.”

Are you kidding me with this nonsense?! And we can pretend it has no effect, but many of my non-Tesla owning friends would say otherwise.
 
I'm rather surprised wall st/hedge funds/MM's are willing or wanting to let the P/E multiple become so compressed. It makes the stock MUCH more predictable and puts the stock in a trend where the stock is continually forced higher, especially if Tesla blows out earnings estimates on every quarter going forward.......essentially becoming much more like Apple going forward.
That's why I don't think it happens the way you describe, and for the very reasons you've been talking about. Predictability. It's not in anyone's interest to let retail sell 15% OTM weekly BPS from now til year end making 1.5-2%. I think we see a LOT of zigging and zagging as volatility in both directions keeps us on our toes until the market picks a direction.

For now I find it hard to believe folks are OK with the likes of GOOG and APPL having a 28 PE and 70% earnings growth. Was just looking at the GOOG info on Yahoo and it's just like Tesla. 1Q "consensus" is so far out of whack that it'll be hard to imagine it's not up by billions within a couple weeks.

We shall see! Definitely a huge battle going on. I just think the fundamentals clearly show big tech should steamroll the bears.
 
This is a little premature in my opinion. Let's see what the market does as a whole. Pretty hard to keep TSLA down if we resume the bull trend at a macro level.
I don't think macro's will matter actually because TSLA has been getting weaker and weaker when compared to the macros.

The chart on TSLA is already starting to show a future wedge that points to the meeting of the uptrend and downtrend lines around mid March at around 905-915/share. Seeing how Wall St loves to make their trend lines reality through superstition, I'd say that's exactly where the stock is going to be in mid March before we get a clear uptrend going. And even then, the uptrend might be a gradual increase like how we saw in May through Sept.
 
Even with a recession, the economy will probably grow over 2% this year.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So you're suggesting Q1 is flat, Q2 and Q3 will be negative, therefore Q4 will be significant to offset the contractions in Q2 and Q3 and get us to 2% for the year. Personally I don't see this happening. Growth may slow, but that isn't a recession.
 
This is a little premature in my opinion. Let's see what the market does as a whole. Pretty hard to keep TSLA down if we resume the bull trend at a macro level.
Yeah current price action on the qqq is exactly as expected. It would have been unexpected if 200 Ema was not contested. We are testing the breakout trend line to confirm before next leg higher to close above 369 (or else its a false breakout). Seems like qqq will close above 360 due to such a green day this am. So I wouldn't worry about it.
 
Some of the headlines today are beyond bonkers. I won’t link anything, but article by an Ananya Bhattacharya:

“Why Does Tesla Keep Recalling Cars?”

First paragraph:

“ If you buy a Tesla, there’s a good chance the company will need it back to fix a serious problem. Nearly 1 million cars have been recalled in the company’s history.”

Are you kidding me with this nonsense?! And we can pretend it has no effect, but many of my non-Tesla owning friends would say otherwise.
I have yet to buy a gas car without going through a recall. Diesel gate, airbag that can send shrapnel to my face, wiring harness problems, etc etc. No one cares about recalls as it's almost part of the car ownership experience.
 
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So the Washington Football Team announced their new name today (Commanders), and decided to celebrate by buying a small fleet of at least 9 wrapped Model Ys:
I wonder how much free advertising Tesla is going to get each time the Commanders play.
That is the first thing I’ve like about the team in a long time. Going to have cognitive dissonance on this for awhile.
 
Yeah current price action on the qqq is exactly as expected. It would have been unexpected if 200 Ema was not contested. We are testing the breakout trend line to confirm before next leg higher to close above 369 (or else its a false breakout). Seems like qqq will close above 360 due to such a green day this am. So I wouldn't worry about it.
Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, FB, Tesla, and Nvidia are about 47% of QQQ. It's gonna be quite a task to push them down from here. Then Nvidia drops earnings 2 weeks from today.

I think it nets out to a far easier task moving QQQ upward in the near term. Especially once all models are updated with all 4Q earnings.
 
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I have yet to buy a gas car without going through a recall. Diesel gate, airbag that can send shrapnel to my face, wiring harness problems, etc etc. No one cares about recalls as it's almost part of the car ownership experience.

And her quote is even more misleading. Rarely do you need to bring your Tesla in for a “recall”. Rather, an OTA update is sent. However, you ALWAYS have to bring your legacy company vehicle in for a recall.