Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrmage]

I waited, because you know… the stock always do the opposite of what you expect. That’s my new motto

Opposite SP action is the best way to fleece short term investors for maximum profit. The ways to win are to be a shrewd contrarian, quick opportunist, or longer term investor. I'm not smart or fast enough for the former two, so I prefer LEAPs.

Edit: Just noticed that NASDAQ is -2.7% while TSLA is +1.1% on nothing material. Smh and rolling my eyes... :/

 

[SOULPEDL]

Furthermore... Anyone today offering V2H will likely see this backfire as the batteries won't last if used routinely for the home. Unless they have warranty disclaimer on their battery when using for the home, Ford and others may have a new problem and don't know it yet.

What is the battery range warranty on the Ford Lightning (x% after y-years)?

I don't have the fine print but here's the google version: (Warranty on Ford Lightning)

Electric Vehicle Component Coverage: 8 years or 100,000 miles (whichever occurs first), with retention of 70% or more of the original High Voltage Battery capacity over that period.

Poking more at this... Here's a Lightning Forum where they are discussing the value proposition of buying a Ford Lightening instead of a Powerwall. High expectations... very expensive to replace ($26K for the Mach-e battery and the truck has a bigger battery yet).

Cost of Lightning vs Powerwalls

www.lightningowners.com

 

[Unpilot]

There is no such thing as "too happy". That's as non-sensical as "too sexy", too healthy" or "too rich". The truth is I was happy before we went green and am just as happy now. We can see the gains acknowledged today, next month or next year. It doesn't really matter much when TSLA is understood although it does make the market look smarter or more efficient when it values TSLA in proportion to their position.

Zen lesson received.

 

[EVDRVN]

SRP (power utility in Az) is pushing for construction of about a dozen more gas power peaker plants in Coolidge Az (cuz who else would put up with more smoke stacks already in place, it's a impoverished town). Gas is still too cheap for SRP to buy MegaPacks or more solar. Make no mistake, these new plants are for hottest summer days - solar could cover this growing need in Phoenix (where there's little water anyway).

SRP also paid for half of my first Powerwall 2yr ago as a $3,600 cash rebate. But I think this was only as a result of settling in court with Tesla. So, not nearly enough powerwalls to cover it simply because solar is still expensive (which is because we only get pennies/kWh as set by what it costs SRP to fire up the smoke stacks instead. I conclude the only motivation to help the grid is either new money or new law (Edit: or cheaper solar etc).

Old news but let's revisit V2G or V2H bc I think Elon goofed up (or is coy). Consider the fact the the owners of Roadsters were probably the wealthiest around so one has to question their needs or lifestyles. It was the wrong test market study IMO... fire away!

"Musk’s comments during Battery Day also suggest that the company doesn’t think its customers are hungry enough for vehicle-to-grid capabilities yet. “Very few people would actually use vehicle-to-grid,” Musk said during Battery Day. “We actually had that with the original Roadster. We had vehicle-to-grid capabilities — nobody used it.”

Heck, I own 2 powerwalls and still find opportunities to use the vehicle for power. No I think he did it for vehicle warranty reasons (there's only so many cycles in a battery). Bring in the Million Mile battery, whole new story! I bet it returns with 4680.

He knows people would use it and don’t be fooled by that statement about the original roadster there’s a specific reason why people did not use it and it has nothing to do with desire. The original system was not set up to be easily integrated and it had very little control. Tesla telematics now allows the ability to monitor use in the car this is extremely valuable for utilities on V2G. The large packs on Teslas are perfectly suited for all sorts of applications for V2G but are conflicts with the power wall business and other goals. This is not about first principal nonsense it’s about conflicts, priorities, etc. Understand the conflicts with local utilities by strapping a large pack to a home. PG&E severely limits what type of battery sizes you can have on your home based on your usage. The reality ia giant V2G system via Tesla could be a giant Trojan horse. Hopefully they have a long-term plan to leverage this because they are best positioned with their software and telemetry.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Wouldn't it be something if this wasn't just a lunch visit but actually was part of discussions about direct sales - I think the market would like that news. One can dream on an icy day in Texas...

That photo was from back at the Austin announcement.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Can’t Abbot do an executive order? I believe it’s in his power to issue executive orders.

It should be interesting to see the headlines when Austin opens: “Tesla Texas Giga factory begins delivering cars, but Texans can't buy them.“ Bet something happens pretty fast then.

 

[EVDRVN]

Furthermore... Anyone today offering V2H will likely see this backfire as the batteries won't last if used routinely for the home. Unless they have warranty disclaimer on their battery when using for the home, Ford and others may have a new problem and don't know it yet.

What is the battery range warranty on the Ford Lightning (x% after y-years)?

Most consumers don’t understand the different applications of these technologies and those that are looking for an occasional emergency usage when the power goes out for a short period of time will get huge utility out of this feature and those that intend to use it like a traditional power wall beyond that are just trying to apply the wrong purchase comparison. Having a 120 V power source on your vehicle is a huge selling and marketing benefit and it also is a practical benefit and offers tremendous utility when used appropriately. Even at a perceptual level it has phenomenal selling power to many people who will likely never use it. In my experience in the industry one of the most asked for features is the ability to have occasional power use off the car.

Having an EVSE or car based tech to disconnect and follow all the new local protocols and the full telematics in the car to monitor bill or do you other features is an incredibly powerful offering. Tesla would have full control of usage in this manner for warranty etc. As I mentioned before even a simple outlet in the back of the car is a great stop gap at many levels.

 

[ZachF]

While that may work in some places, Tesla style power systems using iron batteries will prove to be cheaper and more efficient. The lifetime may be towards 30 years or more with high recyclability after that. Once the cost per watt drops enough, the trend will accelerate.

That doesn’t solve seasonal issues.

Put simply, when we go all solar, we are going to be making a lot more power than we need during the summer.

The primary objective of the water grid would be irrigation and security against droughts, but by careful placement of man made lakes, it could also double as a seasonal battery.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Petition to B to acknowledge Tesla:

58,493 people signed and won this petition

President Biden Please Acknowledge Tesla's EV Leadership

www.change.org

(I haven't seen it shared yet, hopefully not a duplicate)

 

[Singuy]

I think these "recalls" highlight how awesome Tesla is compared to rivals. There are no other automakers that can fix a large scale issue simply by doing an OTA update. Tesla's strength in software is not fully appreciated by Wall St.

I think it highlights BS recalls. Our jag never had consistent seatbelt chime and yet no recalls.

 

[growler23]

Wouldn't it be great if the new Tesla Powerpack / substation near Dallas kept the lights on in its neighborhood while others went dark? That'd be worth some votes sales, I think.

Greg Abbott on Twitter: "Elon Musk may not have been invited to the White House, but he has been in the Governor’s Office at the Texas Capitol. And now, Tesla’s headquarters are in Texas too. https://t.co/w8EhO4RJPw" / Twitter

View attachment 764401

Cheers!

P.S. Elon really need to hook Greg up wiff da PLAID powerchair...

Not sure if this is the one you are referring to - perhaps there are several! This 200 MWh Megapack installation in Angleton (closer to Houston) is certainly providing power right now, as this current ice storm - despite Gov. Abott's public personal guarantee last year that "the lights will stay on" - is causing 50,000+ homes to lose power.
Tesla to the rescue for at least some of those homes.

Angleton Gets Tesla Megapack Installation, Has 200 MWh of Energy on Tap

 

[jerry33]

And his tweet would make some believe now he’s deep with Tesla?

I do believe he will issue an executive order, soon.

“And now, Tesla’s headquarters are in Texas too.“ Gov Abbott

Speech and actions are two different things. He could also open a special session of the Legislature to have the law changed. He could have done this anytime. He hasn't so far--I doubt he will in the future either.

 

[jerry33]

But Tesla showrooms remains open on Sunday, and dealers cannot be open or sell cars on Sundays in Texas.

Dealers show cars in malls on Sunday.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Btw I do think the market is setting itself up to move higher and continue to rebound. Amazon down 6.5% before their earnings is a key sign. Market driving things down to a point where even if companies miss, the market can still rebound.......unless Amazon reports some truly horrific numbers/guidance

How are AMZN expectations so low? I know supply chain issues were insane in 4Q, but $3.58/share? If 1Q22 reverts back to just the earnings performance of 1Q21, that's $15.79/share. Lol! Interesting times.

For the sake of isolating my non-TSLA posting, I'll add this here. I think people are gonna start buying FB Monday. It's PE just crumbled to what.....17? Earnings look to me like an ATH in this "terrible quarter", and profits are about double 2018. Yes, the outlook has dimmed and we all hate facebook, but money is money. $15.89B in operating income 4Q21.

* for the record, I'd be willing to sacrifice a pretty big "tech sector" hit to TSLA if FB just went away.

 

[Skryll]

Petition to B to acknowledge Tesla:

58,493 people signed and won this petition

President Biden Please Acknowledge Tesla's EV Leadership

www.change.org

(I haven't seen it shared yet, hopefully not a duplicate)
[...]

What good is supposed to come out of that. Let Biden lure GM/Ford/UAW into an electric future and move some ICE non-tesla-ever drivers to trade their ICE for a GM-Bolt, VW-ID4, Ford-F150E/MacheE while Tesla focuses on scaling up to supply the overwhelming need. Are we worried that demand for teslas goes down because legacy auto suddenly makes electric vehicles at scale? Tesla doesnt need the help of Biden to accelerate the mission of Tesla by telling GM/Ford that they lost the race already. Tesla needs the help of Biden to cheerlead legacy carmakers into the future because it will accelerate the transition to sustainable transport and energy. And if the political 'look I am ignoring the winner here, lets focus on you all, you all get a participation trophy and lets meet and see how we can accelerate things for you' snubbing of Tesla is part of that, who cares. Its not like it would stop Tesla from growing with the best products that sell themselves and convert more and more people. Maybe Rivian and other startups could need some support, but Tesla sure doesnt. Supply chain maybe, thats where they could use help.

For the record, I have not personally ever seen an electric truck in person around me except for more and more Rivian lately. Ford needs to step up.

 

[tivoboy]

I think these "recalls" highlight how awesome Tesla is compared to rivals. There are no other automakers that can fix a large scale issue simply by doing an OTA update. Tesla's strength in software is not fully appreciated by Wall St.

We’ll, technically the Ford Mach E can do OTA for as they describe it “all the cars computer modules, including performance, interface, vehicle systems”. Maybe not AS extensive as how Tesla has designed it, but Tesla certainly showed other manufacturers where the advantage lies.

 

[lafrisbee]

Petition to B to acknowledge Tesla:

58,493 people signed and won this petition

President Biden Please Acknowledge Tesla's EV Leadership

www.change.org

(I haven't seen it shared yet, hopefully not a duplicate)
View attachment 764408

ha

I saw the goal was 50,000 yesterday. 75,000 now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meta beat down: (FB) 12:00 p.m. EST

Amazon also being taken to the woodshed. See of Red.

 

[Nocturnal]

I really like Emmet and Matt from Good Soil, but I don't understand their defense of Taylor Organ. The frat boy who pretends to be a Tesla bull helped create an article in the boston globe about how horrible FSD beta is. Of course he made sure he didn't upgrade the software and is using an old build. (from comments based on his video)

 

[Prunesquallor]

New MS (Adam Jonas) research note.