Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Anyone else thinking we are being held down artificially until Friday and then will see it pop a bit on Monday?

Really the only question is are MM's shooting for actual max pain or are they shooting to try and prevent anything above 879 on Friday's close to avoid paying out the call walls at 880, 890, and especially 900.

Even though max pain is 850, when I look at open interest and volume chart, it tells me they're mostly shooting to prevent anything higher than 879 for close tomorrow. We'll see in the last two hours of trading because yesterday it seemed like there was clear intent on the stock price landing exactly on 850 for Friday and then they let off of the capping later in the day to let the stock go higher.

But on the flip side of that, the walk down today, despite news of the Berlin approval, was just so easy. No buying volume whatsoever. TSLA is now underperforming 3X its multiple to the Nasdaq and getting weaker as the day goes on. So I doubt the press conference for the approval tomorrow morning will really do anything to create some buying volume

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That was also mentioned in the Reuters article.

Tesla faces day of reckoning on water supply for planned German plant

Tesla may lose the water supply contract for its long-delayed German plant if environmental groups win a court case challenging a licence granted to its water supplier at a hearing next week.

www.reuters.com

Thanks for that, that might have been what I was remembering.

 

[Coolio2000]

Looking at inventory around Houston, there are more Mach-Es in transit/ordered than sitting at dealerships. Which usually indicates that they are moving pretty quickly.

https://shop.ford.com/inventory/mach-e/results?zipcode=77002&year=2022

Here's a Mach-E GT for $90,410 with a sticker of $69,200 in Denver!
New Ford Cars and Trucks For Sale in Denver at Phil Long

 

[Ogre]

Anyone else thinking we are being held down artificially until Friday and then will see it pop a bit on Monday?

The number of times I’ve seen a post with the phrase “…see it pop a bit on…” on these forums is astoundingly high.

The number of times it’s been correct is fairly small.

Maybe if I’m around longer the hit rate on this prediction will improve. Hopefully your post will help the average.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Here's a Mach-E GT for $90,410 with a sticker of $69,200 in Denver!
New Ford Cars and Trucks For Sale in Denver at Phil Long

You can buy a leftover 2021 2wd in BC for 52000 Canadian currency. It’s been sitting there a long time though. There are a actually quite a few. I’m beginning to think it’s not just price. The day we picked up our new Y a couple weeks ago we noticed two in their trade in compound.

Interesting.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The number of times I’ve seen a post with the phrase “…see it pop a bit on…” on these forums is astoundingly high.

The number of times it’s been correct is fairly small.

Maybe if I’m around longer the hit rate on this prediction will improve. Hopefully your post will help the average.

Not sure where you're getting that......We've seen many times where the stock gets held down to max pain and then rallies on Monday where the stock is then capped once it hits where a call wall was and then slowly walked down all week and/or capped. In fact there was one period even this quarter where it happened for 3 weeks in a row.

 

[StealthP3D]

Probably without good reason, I have always viewed LUCID as a company that will be bought by a legacy. Would such a company burn through its capital at this stage ? I don't think there is a clear answer, particularly during this period of exceptionally high 'doing business' costs. Whatever makes them more attractive to their suitors, but either way is not a fraud.

I have always used a broad definition of fraud. Intent matters and words matter. If a public company tells investors one plan, while actually executing on a different plan, that is fraud. Because it's deceiving investors. But, again, it would be very hard to prove.

A lot of people don't consider anything fraud unless and until there is a successful conviction. And that is a sure-fire way from ever being charged with slander or libel. But I use the word "fraudulent" to refer to intent and, in the case of Lucid, I think it's too early to have a clear idea of intent. It's possible that Rawlings knows his chances of turning into a successful company are small, but he knows if he goes through all the motions, he will still benefit hugely whether they succeed or fail. And this scenario falls more in line with keeping their eye on being bought out (which would be even more profitable for Rawlings and other insiders than simply failing).

As one who wants to see transportation become clean and sustainable ASAP, I think the sooner Lucid gets bought out, the better. Because I don't think their chances as a stand-alone company are good at all. They have amassed a good amount of know-how and that needs to be ramped into high volume ASAP or else they are just wasting those valuable human resources while the world burns.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@SpaceX American Broomstick https://t.co/r2hJvFQosS" / Twitter

USA! USA!

Elon has added 1.2M followers on Twitter in the past 6 days (now at 76.2M). That's the thing about having a Rock Star CEO. The free PR is amazing!

Cheers!

 

[Ogre]

I have always used a broad definition of fraud. Intent matters and words matter. If a public company tells investors one plan, while actually executing on a different plan, that is fraud. Because it's deceiving investors. But, again, it would be very hard to prove.

Perhaps like running up your pre-order count with a massive media campaign based on prices you have no intention to honor; then raising the prices after your IPO. That sort of fraud?

 

[AudubonB]

You can buy a leftover 2021 2wd in BC for 52000 Canadian currency. It’s been sitting there a long time though. There are a actually quite a few. I’m beginning to think it’s not just price. The day we picked up our new Y a couple weeks ago we noticed two in their trade in compound.

Interesting.

Under normal circumstances it is impossible to learn, unfortunately, but I would be thrilled to find out how much the prior owners received for their used Mach-Es.

 

[JRP3]

I hope Elon doesn't get any ideas from this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499142854857437191

 

[AudubonB]

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@SpaceX American Broomstick https://t.co/r2hJvFQosS" / Twitter

USA! USA!

Elon has added 1.2M followers on Twitter in the past 6 days (now at 76.2M). That's the thing about having a Rock Star CEO. The free PR is amazing!

Cheers!

May we have an ISS-supplying Falcon 9 named "Broomstick", please?

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone else thinking we are being held down artificially until Friday and then will see it pop a bit on Monday?

Yes, but not if too many investors fully expect that. In that case, it will run up sharply on Friday!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I hope Elon doesn't get any ideas from this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499142854857437191

LOVE IT! You can tell he's still pretty new to this, but I gotta give him props for looking as good as he did at his age. And I gotta say, speaking for myself, the guts required to do this gets harder the older you get.

 

[Ogre]

I hope Elon doesn't get any ideas from this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499142854857437191

I hope Elon does whatever tickles his fancy, he’s earned it.

It would suck as an investor if he got injured or killed, but he should enjoy his life.

Fortunately for us, it seems like Musk “enjoys” accomplishing 4 impossible things at once.

 

[StealthP3D]

Perhaps like running up your pre-order count with a massive media campaign based on prices you have no intention to honor; then raising the prices after your IPO. That sort of fraud?

In the case of Rivian, I really doubt they originally intended to not honor their announced pricing. The cost of actually building the vehicles blindsided them. This is why Elon keeps repeating that "manufacturing is hard". Because many people still don't get it - even those who have declared their intention to manufacture.

Now Rivian is falling more into line with what I suggested yesterday - that they take the losses and work like hell to reduce the cost to produce. And they have announced versions that cost less to produce. It kind of makes one wonder whether Elon was trying to help them out too when he mentioned an awesome truck is not so awesome if no one can afford it.

It's almost like Elon is sending the message to the EV industry that they have to work harder to get costs down to continue taking market share from ICE. If so, that's a real show of strength that he's not worried about 'the competition' but rather trying to help them.

 

[StealthP3D]

LOVE IT! You can tell he's still pretty new to this, but I gotta give him props for looking as good as he did at his age. And I gotta say, speaking for myself, the guts required to do this gets harder the older you get.

"At his age"? LOL! He's not even 50 yet!

Spoiler: 49 is the new 39

Surfing legend Kelly Slater wins 56th career title ahead of 50th birthday

Kelly Slater wins his latest surfing victory just days before the surfing legend from Cocoa Beach, Florida, turns 50.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Ipcress]

It is, and if all this continues without check, it will be doubtful what the world will face. Thus, it seems prudent to plan for what happens if this war is resolved with the continued independence of Ukraine, the cessation of Empire dreams and change fo government in a positive way for Russia.

Today that seems naive, stupidly optimistic and unlikely. I have lived in four war zones during hostilities. I have too many years. With a single exception, three of the four have resolved with a fairly stable and prosperous economy. Not all have positive ends, and we all know. Still, it seems always quite proper to think, what if...and postulate a positive outcome.

I nominate jbcarioca for the most interesting man on this forum. And intelligent. And thoughtful.

 

[woodisgood]

In the case of Rivian, I really doubt they originally intended to not honor their announced pricing. The cost of actually building the vehicles blindsided them. This is why Elon keeps repeating that "manufacturing is hard". Because many people still don't get it - even those who have declared their intention to manufacture.

Now Rivian is falling more into line with what I suggested yesterday - that they take the losses and work like hell to reduce the cost to produce. And they have announced versions that cost less to produce. It kind of makes one wonder whether Elon was trying to help them out too when he mentioned an awesome truck is not so awesome if no one can afford it.

It's almost like Elon is sending the message to the EV industry that they have to work harder to get costs down to continue taking market share from ICE. If so, that's a real show of strength that he's not worried about 'the competition' but rather trying to help them.

Both Rivian and Lucid, at this early stage, display the bloat that is emblematic of wannabe widget-makers instead of the ruthless cost-cutting and efficiency of a pants-on-fire operation that intends to save the world yesterday. There is only one of the latter that I am aware of, and I don’t expect every company or CEO to be like that, but it’s that attitude/culture that led to a sheer will to conquer otherwise insurmountable challenges.

It comes down to the core of who you are and why you do what you do. Even with the roadmap Tesla has laid out, these companies will need to have it in their DNA to follow suit and survive.

 

[Ogre]

In the case of Rivian, I really doubt they originally intended to not honor their announced pricing. The cost of actually building the vehicles blindsided them. This is why Elon keeps repeating that "manufacturing is hard". Because many people still don't get it - even those who have declared their intention to manufacture.

Now Rivian is falling more into line with what I suggested yesterday - that they take the losses and work like hell to reduce the cost to produce. And they have announced versions that cost less to produce. It kind of makes one wonder whether Elon was trying to help them out too when he mentioned an awesome truck is not so awesome if no one can afford it.

It's almost like Elon is sending the message to the EV industry that they have to work harder to get costs down to continue taking market share from ICE. If so, that's a real show of strength that he's not worried about 'the competition' but rather trying to help them.

It’s hard to attribute motivations to others.

But I don’t think they were blindsided on production costs recently. Pre-IPO, they fired an executive who was pushing to increase prices for exactly this reason.

A lot of people take Musk‘s comments on Rivian as criticisms. I think he has been shooting straight all along though. Most of what he’s said about Rivian was snark free.

* They should get their first factory profitable before thinking about a second.
* They are likely to have negative margins on the R1T
* Making an electric truck which is affordable and profitable is incredibly hard.

Regardless, this was pretty ham-fisted on Rivian’s part at best and disingenuous at worst.