Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Nobody really knows WTF is going on with Cybertruck reservations. It's very likely you will have the chance to move to the quad motor config. Solid chance the price will be higher. Lots of speculation people want to pass off as fact out there regarding this.

Cool, thanks. I'm assuming about the same. Tesla is taking an new optimal path in this transition.

With dusruption already inevitable, the marketplace taking their sweet time has forced Tesla to go for margin-share, not market share.

I suspect Cybertruck will be sold at around $100-120k in the quad variant for it's first couple years of production. This is how you ratchet up the pressure on Ford and GM, eat the entire top of the line market where they make all their profits.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Here it comes, oil and gas prices surging. Just heard that San Fran has gone over $5 average, first US city to do so.

Oil prices surge as fears about Russian crude supplies intensify

The global benchmark topped $115 briefly on Wednesday, just days after it crossed the triple-digit mark for the first time in seven years.

www.npr.org

Oil will come crashing down faster than anyone is predicting. There aren't many scenarios where Russian oil isn't hitting the global market in some fashion and satisfying demand. It's not in anyone's interest to do so.

All this price spike will do is drag US production quickly back up to 13.5Mb/d. Meanwhile the rest of the world will pump like mad to grab this spike. We'll be massively oversupplied again by May.

 

[WattsHappening]

Here it comes, oil and gas prices surging. Just heard that San Fran has gone over $5 average, first US city to do so.

Oil prices surge as fears about Russian crude supplies intensify

The global benchmark topped $115 briefly on Wednesday, just days after it crossed the triple-digit mark for the first time in seven years.

www.npr.org

I have such mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I feel for those less fortunate who will feel the pinch of this acutely. On the other hand, this has no impact on us as we haven't bought a drop of gas since 2018 and I kinda want oil prices to increase as that will accelerate the transition that much quicker. Combine the continuing decrease in battery cost with increase in oil/gas prices, and the tipping point of EVs getting to be cheaper than ICEs is coming quickly.

 

[Ogre]

Cool, thanks. I'm assuming about the same. Tesla is taking an new optimal path in this transition.

With dusruption already inevitable, the marketplace taking their sweet time has forced Tesla to go for margin-share, not market share.

I suspect Cybertruck will be sold at around $100-120k in the quad variant for it's first couple years of production. This is how you ratchet up the pressure on Ford and GM, eat the entire top of the line market where they make all their profits.

Hard for me to sync Musk's talk about how hard it is for them to make an "Affordable truck" with a sticker of $100k+ for the first couple of years. Particularly not with his recent humble-brag about how it would be impossible for anyone else to create an "affordable truck"... then launch theirs $30k higher than pretty much everyone else's.

I would not be surprised to see the quad higher price than the tri. Just not 44% higher.

 

[Accident]

Here it comes, oil and gas prices surging. Just heard that San Fran has gone over $5 average, first US city to do so.

Oil prices surge as fears about Russian crude supplies intensify

The global benchmark topped $115 briefly on Wednesday, just days after it crossed the triple-digit mark for the first time in seven years.

www.npr.org

According to GasBuddy: $4.99 in San Francisco. $3.74 National average.

 

[thesmokingman]

View attachment 776322

According to GasBuddy: $4.99 in San Francisco. $3.74 National average.

And, your point is? The 1 cent?

Gasbuddy CEO was just on CNBC talking about San Fran breaking the $5 average.

 

[Accident]

And, your point is? The 1 cent?

Gasbuddy CEO was just on CNBC talking about San Fran breaking the $5 average.

Just sharing the graph on how the prices are increasing. 1 cent doesn't make a difference.

 

[insaneoctane]

The $15k probably represents the money they would lose from the lack of service needed over the lifetime of the car. "Fine, you want to buy this, then you're paying up front for the service money we're losing"

The dealer model is broken and legacy auto has a big problem on their hands as a result.

I doubt this is unique to EVs. We've all seen the extortionist markups on vehicles, ICE included. It's pure greed by your friendly dealership. Until their lots fill up again, they will add nutty markups in search of a sucker. The behavior might change once their lots approach full....They are scorpions and it's in their nature...

 

[thesmokingman]

I have such mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I feel for those less fortunate who will feel the pinch of this acutely. On the other hand, this has no impact on us as we haven't bought a drop of gas since 2018 and I kinda want oil prices to increase as that will accelerate the transition that much quicker. Combine the continuing decrease in battery cost with increase in oil/gas prices, and the tipping point of EVs getting to be cheaper than ICEs is coming quickly.

Yea, I'm somewhat mixed on it as well It is going to hurt so I hope it accelerates in people's minds that need to move away from dino fuels asap.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bout to go back under the 200 day moving average.

Not gonna lie, chart looks ugly as hell

Firmly back in the downtrend now and I suspect Wall St's very content to just keep riding TSLA in this downtrend line until something of substance is announced. Next thing up is Q1 P/D numbers in a month and even then, I think there's going to plenty of FUD from carebears saying Tesla's margins are going to collapse from starting production at Berlin/Austin. Q1 P/D numbers would have to surprise in a pretty decent way, I think anything above 340k would do it.

So in reality, if the downtrend keeps in tack, TSLA will be in the mid to low 700's by the time Q1 earnings come out. That is such a joke.

 

[Krugerrand]

I never said it was simple or easy. And if Tesla wa really willing to sell a $35,000 Model 3 why not allow that on line? Rather than call a number that is rarely answered? All I really meant to say is Rivian is not the only company trying to raise prices and Tesla did similar. And I stand corrected on the CyberTruck but I still doubt we will see them for $39,900

Meh. Wrong tree to bark up in this case.

 

[insaneoctane]

Where was all the environmental concern when that coal mine was approved? Pandora?

In the same place where all those journalist were when all those non-Tesla vehicle fires took place....

 

[ZeApelido]

I admit I didn't forsee in 2022 Gene Simmons of KISS would be giving TSLA investment advice nor Musk would be giving tips to avoid having your Starlink terminal detected in a war zone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499473797539250200

 

[RobDickinson]

Not surprised by the starlink/warzone thing.

As soon as you create a global easy to use hard to prevent internet access method its going to get caught up in conflicts

 

[betstarship]

I admit I didn't forsee in 2022 Gene Simmons of KISS would be giving TSLA investment advice nor Musk would be giving tips to avoid having your Starlink terminal detected in a war zone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499473797539250200

It's the beginning of March

 

[2daMoon]

On the flip side, if the courts do say the water contract is invalid tomorrow right after this approval conference, it’s going to make Germany look even more stupid

Shouldn't they be taking into consideration the water that will become available as other OEMs go bankwupt?

/s

 

[WADan]

Tesla just gave away free Weather Proctection Kit ($90) to Model Y owners.
I don’t know of any company that would do this!

 

[Mengy]

Tesla just gave away free Weather Proctection Kit ($90) to Model Y owners.
I don’t know of any company that would do this!

What do you mean? I own a Model Y and I haven't gotten a free weather protection kit?

 

[Xd85]

What do you mean? I own a Model Y and I haven't gotten a free weather protection kit?

I got an email from Tesla with a code to enter in the store.

 

[Tyler34]

Ditto