Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[rick]

This might be right for some people: As 80 year olds with a significant IRA required minimum distribution which increases every year we were able to quadruple our charitable contributions by moving shares of Tesla stock from our taxable account to our charitable foundation thus avoiding capital gains and reducing our tax burden. Also helps with estate planning. Haven’t been in a gas station since 2013 (2013 S85, 2016 X 90, 2019 M3 and 2021 MYP). It has been and still is a good ride.

 

[Christine69420]

I'm glad you are OK, SoulPedl!

I have no insight in how to proceed - but best of luck to you.

 

[wipster]

OT, wish this was an April Fools joke... My 2021 Model Y was t-boned, I'm fine, walked away. Hopefully it's totalled and we can get some 4680 batteries (think positive). What's the lead-time on a new Y these days?

It was just me driving the car, completely fine (left arm abrasion is all), the airbags deployed, and the truck that hit me was a 4-door full-sized GMC pickup truck. That driver was also safe. Maybe 30 mph at impact (speed limit was 45, hard to judge when it's coming at you, looked more like 2 mph). Ironically, his airbag didn't deploy as he hit square into my driver's side hitting both doors but mostly the rear door (it needs a new left half.) Glass in my pants was a neat trick, I can't explain that part. Was my first accident ever. Super glad it was a Tesla.

Seems I missed a good story through. My tow driver told me there was a traffic jam up the street from a stuck Waymo in the same mess, and no driver. It was worth the laugh at a bad time. I didn't know they were doing that again, so I can't confirm but not surprised either.

OK, back to life at hand. If anyone has some insights on this situation like getting the video, repairs, totals, time-frame now, let's do it offline, thx.

Glad you're OK! It pays to drive a Tesla in ways other than cash!

 

[CHGolferJim]

OT, wish this was an April Fools joke... My 2021 Model Y was t-boned, I'm fine, walked away. Hopefully it's totalled and we can get some 4680 batteries (think positive). What's the lead-time on a new Y these days?

It was just me driving the car, completely fine (left arm abrasion is all), the airbags deployed, and the truck that hit me was a 4-door full-sized GMC pickup truck. That driver was also safe. Maybe 30 mph at impact (speed limit was 45, hard to judge when it's coming at you, looked more like 2 mph). Ironically, his airbag didn't deploy as he hit square into my driver's side hitting both doors but mostly the rear door (it needs a new left half.) Glass in my pants was a neat trick, I can't explain that part. Was my first accident ever. Super glad it was a Tesla.

Seems I missed a good story through. My tow driver told me there was a traffic jam up the street from a stuck Waymo in the same mess, and no driver. It was worth the laugh at a bad time. I didn't know they were doing that again, so I can't confirm but not surprised either.

OK, back to life at hand. If anyone has some insights on this situation like getting the video, repairs, totals, time-frame now, let's do it offline, thx.

When was the accident? That is hard core posting about it here so soon! Hope you continue to feel okay.

 

[Skipdd]

that gives you the opportunity to teach him that Tesla stock both multiplies and divides!

Ok you sold me. Will take care of this next week. Also going to print and make a meme out of your comment.

 

[SOULPEDL]

When was the accident? That is hard core posting about it here so soon! Hope you continue to feel okay.

About 8 AM. Lot's to process. Good news, massage at 2PM. It's gonna hurt later I think.

 

[SageBrush]

I hate it when wives back seat drive bys on your investments.

Like others, my wife is also strongly of the diversification is good camp. And honestly that is not a bad general position. But this is the era of transition to sustainable energy, so I find every ETF with a large component of legacy fossil companies to be bad choices.

For now though, her 'advice' has waned since she has started paying attention to the stock market and our portfolio and she sees just how much of our appreciation is TSLA. All I can say though is that TSLA better continue to outperform or the hen will be back with a vengeance, making up for lost 'I told you so' time.

 

[thesmokingman]

Not bad, it could be worse... the late rally into the close ended with markets in the green.

 

[wipster]

About 8 AM. Lot's to process. Good news, massage at 2PM. It's gonna hurt later I think.

Dude, this morning? You're probably still in shock! What a loyal TMC member you are. You're right, it's probably going to hurt tomorrow... I've been involved in too many accidents so I can testify. Great idea to get a massage, that will help a lot. Wish I could send you some of my meds...

 

[Krugerrand]

About 8 AM. Lot's to process. Good news, massage at 2PM. It's gonna hurt later I think.

Soak in epsom salts; Dr. Teals has a variety of blends. And arnica externally and internally is your friend.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... Wish I could send you some of my meds...

Send them anyway

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'm curious what folks here expect for Q1 delivery numbers. I just read that Wall St. is predicting about 309k, up slightly from the 308k in Q4. Not terrible considering that Q1 is generally weaker than the previous quarter. I'm going to throw out 330k as my wild *ss guess.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA had a nice beat of the macros today:

TSLA above; QQQ below:

... and the S&P 500 lagged behind TSLA today as well. Here's the 2:00 pm SP's:

Good week, TSLA! Have a great weekend, TMC!

 

[Tyler34]

I'm curious what folks here expect for Q1 delivery numbers. I just read that Wall St. is predicting about 309k, up slightly from the 308k in Q4. Not terrible considering that Q1 is generally weaker than the previous quarter. I'm going to throw out 330k as my wild *ss guess.

I think consensus around here is 283k

 

[Stretch2727]

GM sales drop 20%, shares drop 1%.

If TSLA sales dropped 20% in a quarter, the world would be crying that Tesla is doomed and TSLA would drop 30%.

To be fair, GM PE is around 6 which is another way of saying expectations for growth are low. Tesla stock price assumes pretty strong growth.

 

[Knightshade]

To be fair, GM PE is around 6 which is another way of saying expectations for growth are low. Tesla stock price assumes pretty strong growth.

GM sold 99 electric Humvees in Q1. That's a nearly 400% increase QoQ!

 

[PeterJA]

Last night my wife and I are watching NBC and in between the many drug commercials they played a Hyundai Ioniq commercial

Wife: "Looks like its time to sell the Tesla Stock"

Me: [triggered]

Me: "No way! They have to pay for advertising! Tesla doesn't even have to pay for commercials, that's an advantage!"

Wife: "OMG, you're totally brainwashed"

Me: "What? That's a reason Tesla is able to make more money"

Wife: "Yeah right." [mocking me] 'Tesla is gonna be 100% of the market, blah blah"

Me: "Lol I didn't say that. But I think they will be able to maintain their share of the EV market"

Wife: "I've talked to people at work. They say they are going to wait for EVs from the brands they like"

Me: "Some might, but there won't even be that many EVs available from other companies"

Wife: "You sound like nut. I can't believe we have all our money tied up in this stock"

And then...

Wife: "You know, what don't you just go

S
E
C

!"

I feel your pain. Does your wife respect logic? If so, maybe try this:

1) There are only two kinds of Tesla investors: well-informed and less-than-well-informed. Which do you want to be?

2) If you want to be well-informed, you will need to spend many hours studying the company. Random TV commercials and highly unscientific samples of consumer sentiment are insufficient.

3) If you don't want to spend that much time, you will need to trust the judgement of someone else. Who will you trust? Talking heads in media dependent on car advertising? Financial advisors opining on hundreds of stocks? A man who follows an international group of Tesla experts from many disciplines who cull and share info every day?

How about the richest man on Earth, who currently has invested in Tesla over 100 billion dollars?

Trusting a man's judgement is not the same as sucking his appendage... unfortunately for us men.

 

[inconel]

GM sold 99 electric Humvees in Q1. That's a nearly 400% increase QoQ!

To be fair to GM they also had many more sales of other EV models beside the Hummer. In total GM had total sales of 457 EVs in Q1 2022.

 

[H Mak]

I'm curious what folks here expect for Q1 delivery numbers. I just read that Wall St. is predicting about 309k, up slightly from the 308k in Q4. Not terrible considering that Q1 is generally weaker than the previous quarter. I'm going to throw out 330k as my wild *ss guess.

Quarter one deliveries were always the lowest of the year and since the dawn of Tesla time, were invariably below the preceding Q4. But this changed in 2021 when Q1 2021 deliveries exceeded Q4 2020. You would expect this sequential quarter on quarter increase to continue in the foreseeable future. The foreseeable future which starts tomorrow of course.

 

[StealthP3D]

Back in 20Q4/21Q1, Ron Baron's fund sold about 25% of their TSLA holdings between $450-900 per share (avg 660 or 670) because that was "the prudent thing to do". As of today, that a 52% CAGR they've "prudently" avoided.

Baron's fund is not even swing trading like ARK (who have also made mis-steps trying to time the Market).

Here's some highlights from Ron over the years (since 2018)

• In 2030 Tesla could be a trillion-dollar company, says Ron Baron
• Ron Baron: Tesla Could Hit $1,000 By 2020 | CNBC
• Billionaire investor Ron Baron: Tesla will become a $2 trillion company
• Billionaire investor Ron Baron's firm sold 1.8 million Tesla shares
• Billionaire Investor Says Tesla Will 4x, Praises Elon

Definately better off holding TSLA directly rather than at the discretion of a 3rd-party.

I agree. But to Ron's credit, he did hold off selling a single share MUCH longer than most people here!