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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Not defending anyone, but the entire market is red. J. Powell opened his big fat stupid mouth again and mentioned a 50 bp rate hike for May. Precipitating a broad sell-off.
Ok… I’m going to walk back my previous comment. I think what he was referring to was total global cell production capacity (not just Tesla, the whole industry).
In context when asked about supply of raw materials and Lithium:
I think when he is saying “We” here he is referring to the whole industry’s requirement.
The comment is pretty lengthy and it’s missing some context. I think I captured it here, but full context is in spoiler.
Colin Langan: (53:20)
Yeah, perfect. Just a follow up. Sorry to keep going on the raw material issue on the battery side, but obviously seems pretty important. How quickly can raw material supply be built? Because my understanding, it takes many years to build that out, so are we just sort of facing … When do you think we see a lithium shortage or a nickel shortage? And is there even enough time to build that sort of mining capacity in place? And then related, how quickly can you switch to like LFP for the nickel issue?
Drew: (53:49)
Yeah, I mean, LFP question. It says so in our letter, but half of our products were LFP last quarter, which shows how quickly we were able to respond to … Well, honestly it wasn’t because of a raw material shortage but just because it seemed like the right thing to do. We could change our cathode chemistry.
Drew: (54:11)
And there’s more to be done on the cathode side, and we are actively pursuing it to give us substitution flexibility and response to market conditions between the other cathodes that are out there that can be competitive in our vehicles, of which there are many options.
Drew: (54:28)
I guess what I would say is specifically on the cathode side, flexibility is the way we’re going to achieve this. And not all of the materials that go into cathodes are actually, first of all, hard to secure, through mining or refining, and second of all, in many cases, are very plentiful already, like huge scale. If all of the batteries in the world used those cathodes, it’s less than a 1% increase in total annual output. So that’s the cathode side.
Drew: (55:03)
I think Elon already spent a lot of time talking about lithium. It really depends on the resource. Some resources, like just getting rocks out of the ground, expanding the amount of rocks that you’re getting out of the ground is maybe a little bit of paperwork and some additional blasting and trucking operations. The refining is maybe where it’s a little bit more chunky to bring it online. But also the refining doesn’t … It’s not like an oil refinery. It’s a much, much smaller operation to refine lithium out of spodumene or liquid, like a brine or a salt pond evaporation.
Drew: (55:42)
So you’re talking about a time scale of one to two years. It’s not like we haven’t been talking to all of the lithium suppliers out there for many years. They have a lot of projects already in the pipeline to come online this year and next.
Drew: (55:58)
Some of what’s going on in the lithium market this year doesn’t actually have truth to bear to them, like fundamentals of supply and demand, which is also a little frustrating. But yeah, if we look past this year or next year into 2030 when we need 15 to 20 terawatt-hours of this stuff to stay on the growth trajectory we’re on, we need everybody to do more in the lithium space than they currently are. I don’t know if that answers the question.
Source Tesla Q1 Earnings Call 2022 Transcript
Yeah, perfect. Just a follow up. Sorry to keep going on the raw material issue on the battery side, but obviously seems pretty important. How quickly can raw material supply be built? Because my understanding, it takes many years to build that out, so are we just sort of facing … When do you think we see a lithium shortage or a nickel shortage? And is there even enough time to build that sort of mining capacity in place? And then related, how quickly can you switch to like LFP for the nickel issue?
Drew: (53:49)
Yeah, I mean, LFP question. It says so in our letter, but half of our products were LFP last quarter, which shows how quickly we were able to respond to … Well, honestly it wasn’t because of a raw material shortage but just because it seemed like the right thing to do. We could change our cathode chemistry.
Drew: (54:11)
And there’s more to be done on the cathode side, and we are actively pursuing it to give us substitution flexibility and response to market conditions between the other cathodes that are out there that can be competitive in our vehicles, of which there are many options.
Drew: (54:28)
I guess what I would say is specifically on the cathode side, flexibility is the way we’re going to achieve this. And not all of the materials that go into cathodes are actually, first of all, hard to secure, through mining or refining, and second of all, in many cases, are very plentiful already, like huge scale. If all of the batteries in the world used those cathodes, it’s less than a 1% increase in total annual output. So that’s the cathode side.
Drew: (55:03)
I think Elon already spent a lot of time talking about lithium. It really depends on the resource. Some resources, like just getting rocks out of the ground, expanding the amount of rocks that you’re getting out of the ground is maybe a little bit of paperwork and some additional blasting and trucking operations. The refining is maybe where it’s a little bit more chunky to bring it online. But also the refining doesn’t … It’s not like an oil refinery. It’s a much, much smaller operation to refine lithium out of spodumene or liquid, like a brine or a salt pond evaporation.
Drew: (55:42)
So you’re talking about a time scale of one to two years. It’s not like we haven’t been talking to all of the lithium suppliers out there for many years. They have a lot of projects already in the pipeline to come online this year and next.
Drew: (55:58)
Some of what’s going on in the lithium market this year doesn’t actually have truth to bear to them, like fundamentals of supply and demand, which is also a little frustrating. But yeah, if we look past this year or next year into 2030 when we need 15 to 20 terawatt-hours of this stuff to stay on the growth trajectory we’re on, we need everybody to do more in the lithium space than they currently are. I don’t know if that answers the question.
Source Tesla Q1 Earnings Call 2022 Transcript
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
$1050 for Friday would be huge for MM's. Not to worry, it all has to unwind at some point!
Buy low, sell high.
They probably also won't hit the wrong pedal and end up in a GYM as well.What the Optimus bots should be trained to do is the following:
Driver pulls up to supercharger stall
If driver is 'not capable of backing up tesla straight into supercharging stall'
Flag down Optimus and Optimus will get into your Tesla and do it for you
I am sure this will solve a lot of tesla drivers being unable to back up their Teslas in a straight line.
Like if you feel my pain when going to supercharge!
Yup... the macro environment sucks right now. Though I think the 50bps will end up being a positive. 50bps is pretty much priced and and whispers of 75bps have been coming out. Similar to March, I think we see a lot of relief when it is 'only' 50bps and the market will rally hard.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Perfectly rational thing to do IMO, and likely at least somewhat TSLA related. GOOG earnings are Tuesday and TSLA already announced monster earnings. The oil sector is riding high yet about to plummet. Perfect time to drop an unwelcome but necessary update if you ask me.
TSLA earnings are shooting straight up, it won't be ignored. I'm actually thinking of going to zero shares, converting all to LEAPs and Nov calls(to get me past at least 3Q earnings).
It's just slightly less shorting the MM's have to do. Doesn't mean they didn't have to naked short all morning and unwind Mon/Tues.
Good question. I guess he was talking total industry, unless they have bigger plans and he let it slip - one could hope.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
OK, now we know that a $billion and 40%+ beat on Analyst estimates is worth a 10% bull-run that lasts almost half an hour in the morning!
Then we are back to where we were yesterday morning, got it!
The Netflix fiasco definitely had a longer lasting impact on the TSLA stock price...
Then we are back to where we were yesterday morning, got it!
The Netflix fiasco definitely had a longer lasting impact on the TSLA stock price...
What the Optimus bots should be trained to do is the following:
Driver pulls up to supercharger stall
If driver is 'not capable of backing up tesla straight into supercharging stall'
Flag down Optimus and Optimus will get into your Tesla and do it for you
I am sure this will solve a lot of tesla drivers being unable to back up their Teslas in a straight line.
Like if you feel my pain when going to supercharge!
I’d prefer they just added a feature to do the same to the cars themselves. Then I wouldn’t have to stand outside in the rain while the robot parks my car.
It would be super nice if while you are charging Optimus cleaned the windshield and all of the cameras. I seem to end up with occluded cameras quite a bit.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I think when he says "we" there he means Tesla, as in
Cars
Trucks
Semis
robotaxis
robots
powerwalls
megapacks
all of that in 2030 if they scale like they want will need 15 to 20 terawatt-hours
mejojo
Active Member
Well, if you bought the dip yesterday and sold the pop this morning, it's a very sweet day. I also bought some puts near the top but sold them WAYYYY too early.
Apropos of no particular comment above, yet related to all the well-deserved excited posts about incredible Q1 results and future directions, I would like to reiterate a simple point:
Mark my words folks. Everything else is gravy.
This year Tesla must make hundreds of thousands of Model Y's, relatively cheaply.
In all seriousness.
That is all they really have to do to win the era.
Tesla is on target to do that, and do it in spades, with style. These Model Y's will crush the ICE competition. They will crowd out poor EV competition and award small ribbons to the few decent EV competitors as "also-ran"'s. They will open the eyes of hundreds of thousands of new customers and their friends and families and coworkers. They will spark widespread demand for true and decent charger coverage - everywhere. They will be the beefy quadriceps of progress pressing us into a promised paradise of cleaner, cheaper, non-petrostate-dependent transport.In all seriousness.
That is all they really have to do to win the era.
Mark my words folks. Everything else is gravy.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
From 1092 to 1003, after setting new records... what's wrong with this picture?
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