Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

He has explained it for a few times already.


What is the problem? Just sell if you ain't happy. There are plenty of other stocks.

Oh I see you now understand why the stock is tanking despite great results. What if people who want an EV say damit I wont wait to purchase a Tesla any more because of Elon's actions. I am sorry the right-wing petroleum industry loving people wont pick up the slack. They may go "Yeah Elon let us be vile, but I still want a car that makes loud noises I dont believe in climate change nonsense." to me to get to 20 million sales per year you dont piss off potential customers you try to win them all.

 

[30seconds]

Plus he will need to periodically sell stock to fund the interest on the equity loans, or the banks can. Either way the banks are getting paid.

 

[StealthP3D]

This probably the most bizarre thing I've ever seen with this stock. Even factoring in the 2016-2018 years.

Never seen anything like it. To blow away earnings by that % and have your P/E way below it's all time low.

The amount of P/E compression in the matter of 3 months since Q4 earnings is flabbergasting. I believe we were trading in the upper 200 P/E range heading into Q4 earnings. Now…….113.

Tesla’s valuation has essentially been cut in half in 3 months

Don't worry, the market makers just need to balance their order books for all those bullish options without losing their shirts. As we get closer to the stock split, they will need to cover all their naked shorts and we will get it all back and probably a whole lot more.

 

[15Peter20]

So the post split SP will be what? Zero?

 

[Open Interest]

This probably the most bizarre thing I've ever seen with this stock. Even factoring in the 2016-2018 years.

Never seen anything like it. To blow away earnings by that % and have your P/E way below it's all time low.

The amount of P/E compression in the matter of 3 months since Q4 earnings is flabbergasting. I believe we were trading in the upper 200 P/E range heading into Q4 earnings. Now…….113.

Tesla’s valuation has essentially been cut in half in 3 months

Forgive me if this is extremely naive, but is it possible that the market is simply recognizing TSLA as a mature company and applying a more rational multiple? And that this is happening against a backdrop of a “wall of worry”?

Few companies can command the multiple that TSLA did, but the last few years were a frothy time. Now the market is trying to find its footing among high inflation, rising rates, war and other issues. Seems normal high flyers would be punished. The market is not optimistic about anything right now, let alone future growth.

Just saying it’s a very risk off time. This too shall pass when sentiment changes.

I will run for cover now

 

[Singuy]

The charts for $TSLA and $F look identical today.

You know what else is identical? Their credit ratings. This may have something to do with recessionary fears and the ability for these companies to service their debt. If you look at all the automakers, their price action today correlates to their bond rating.

And yes yes Tesla has no debt but computer algo could care less.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla’s valuation has essentially been cut in half in 3 months

There's a certain frequent poster on Twitter who made the unsupported claim 3 mths ago that Tesla can't grow 50% in '23/'24. This included wrong assumptions about the number of gigapresses (8) and assembly lines (2 not 1) planned for Berlin. When corrected, crickets...

But feeding that patreon paid narrative is all it takes for PEG estimates to be cut in half. I saw this coming at the time, its an obvious (and ultimately false) narrative pushed by shortzes. But they'll have disappeared like a noxious gas in the wind by then.

Short timers.

 

[Usain]

Is the CEO and Top Shareholder alienating potential future customers?

Conservatives: "Elon Musk put Trump back on Twitter. I love him now. Maybe I'll buy a Tesla."

Liberals: "Elon Musk put Trump back on Twitter. I hate him now. I do need to get an EV because of the climate crisis. I'll look at the non-Tesla EVs. These other EVs suck compared to Tesla. I'll hold my nose and get the Tesla."

 

[corduroy]

Oh I see you now understand why the stock is tanking despite great results. What if people who want an EV say damit I wont wait to purchase a Tesla any more because of Elon's actions. I am sorry the right-wing petroleum industry loving people wont pick up the slack. They may go "Yeah Elon let us be vile, but I still want a car that makes loud noises I dont believe in climate change nonsense." to me to get to 20 million sales per year you dont piss off potential customers you try to win them all.

This is a big concern of mine. Elon has become such a firebrand personality, that the possible pool of Tesla buyers seems to be shrinking rapidly - on both sides of the aisle.

 

[2daMoon]

So the post split SP will be what? Zero?

$40 @ 20:1

That ought to make it easy for any investor to buy like crazy once things are on the way back up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Forgive me if this is extremely naive, but is it possible that the market is simply recognizing TSLA as a mature company and applying a more rational multiple? And that this is happening against a backdrop of a “wall of worry”?

Few companies can command the multiple that TSLA did, but the last few years were a frothy time. Now the market is trying to find its footing among high inflation, rising rates, war and other issues. Seems normal high flyers would be punished. The market is not optimistic about anything right now, let alone future growth.

Just saying it’s a very risk off time. This too shall pass when sentiment changes.

I will run for cover now

Can we stop this narrative of questioning? Teslas forward PE is 75. Tesla just grew earnings by 600% in Q1 yoy. Wall st themselves are projecting earnings for this year that are well over 100% growth over 2021.

You can’t have estimates for a stock to grow earnings over 100% and have it have a forward pe of 75. Simply doesn’t work that way

 

[ZachF]

stack em deep stack em cheap boys!

 

[mongo]

Oh I see you now understand why the stock is tanking despite great results. What if people who want an EV say damit I wont wait to purchase a Tesla any more because of Elon's actions. I am sorry the right-wing petroleum industry loving people wont pick up the slack. They may go "Yeah Elon let us be vile, but I still want a car that makes loud noises I dont believe in climate change nonsense." to me to get to 20 million sales per year you dont piss off potential customers you try to win them all.

It's inconsequential until
Production capacity > (people_who_would_buy_a_Tesla - people_who_would_buy_a_Tesla_but_won't_because_Elon)
Tesla isn't even in all regions yet and has over a half year backlog.

 

[EVDRVN]

I would like to thank Elon's good friend for convincing him to get back on Twitter. /S

 

[bkp_duke]

Ha, indeed. Short of Uncle Leo getting margin called or Elon selling for TWTR, PIF seems like the primary entity that would unload both out of spite and strategically to disrupt the TWTR deal.

If they are a 5% owner we’d get to know within 10 days.

I don't see any significant TSLA holdings for PIF:

PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND Top 13F Holdings - WhaleWisdom.com

Detailed Profile of PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND portfolio of holdings. SEC Filings include 13F quarterly reports, 13D/G events and more.

whalewisdom.com

Again, pretty sure they sold it all off years ago. Probably after the tif with "funding secured".

 

[Open Interest]

Can we stop this narrative of questioning? Teslas forward PE is 75. Tesla just grew earnings by 600% in Q1 yoy. Wall st themselves are projecting earnings for this year that are well over 100% growth over 2021.

You can’t have estimates for a stock to grow earnings over 100% and have it have a forward pe of 75. Simply doesn’t work that way

Stop the narrative of questioning? I question that!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

How large is PIF’s TSLA holding?

Likely zero. They said publicly years ago they sold all their TSLA holdings. They bought Lucid instead, which they are in the process of starving out even as we speak. KSA just place a huge order for 2-3 thousand Lucid cars per year (half the order is just an option to buy).

We bearly escaped Saudi clutchs in Aug 2018, and most people don't realize what a debt we owe to Elon for manoevering us out of that trap.

 

[mongo]

I don't see any significant TSLA holdings for PIF:

PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND Top 13F Holdings - WhaleWisdom.com

Detailed Profile of PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND portfolio of holdings. SEC Filings include 13F quarterly reports, 13D/G events and more.

whalewisdom.com

Again, pretty sure they sold it all off years ago. Probably after the tif with "funding secured".

Yeah, and they never had >=5%, so no need to report TSLA specifically.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK. In wider news that might have an effect on policy, practical desire for EV vs ICE, might spread to other countries, etc.

Probably best discussed elsewhere, but I think it has relevance to Tesla/EVs in highlighting there are a significant number of people who are willing to take action and expect to be punished for it. As well as a much larger number of people who are willing to buy Teslas (I mean change their behaviour and purchasing choices).

Over 1000 arrests have been made of people protesting, blocking access, damaging fossil fuel use/infrastructure and even gluing themselves to courtroom furniture causing quite the kerfuffle. One such example Just Stop Oil protests: Arrests after M25 services petrol pumps damaged

Possibly biased poll, but interesting quote

According to new polling, the proportion of people in the UK who said they were likely to engage in some form of climate action increased from 8.7% to 11.3% in the first three weeks of their campaign, equivalent to about 1.7 million adults. Climate action included talking to friends and family about the climate crisis, contacting their MP about climate issues or attending a legal protest.

Results also showed that 58% of UK adults supported the demands of Just Stop Oil, with only 23% against and 19% neutral. However, only 18% supported the group itself.

James Ozden, director of Social Change Lab, which commissioned the research, said “We’ve heard many people speculating that the disruptive protests utilised by Just Stop Oil were damaging to the climate movement. Our survey results don’t support this, finding no loss in support for key climate policies and, instead, we find that the likelihood of the UK public taking various forms of climate action has increased in the same period.”

Just Stop Oil protesters sabotage petrol pumps on M25 motorway

Environmental activists say action is ‘significant escalation’ in campaign against fuel distribution in England

www.theguardian.com

 

[ZachF]

This is a big concern of mine. Elon has become such a firebrand personality, that the possible pool of Tesla buyers seems to be shrinking rapidly - on both sides of the aisle.

Yeah, Look at this firebrand! totally unreasonable!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519415674111672325