-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It appears that weak longs with TSLA stop-loss limits set at $650 were taken out as macros kept descending, resulting in a high volume cascade of TSLA selling. Getting back above $650 could be reassuring. Much might depend upon Friday options games.
My wife, on hearing of the news over the past few days and the TSLA price this morning: "Wow, if it gets into the $500s it's going to be tempting to buy more stock."
But it would be great if we do!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Are you saying you like the BOGO sale pricing then?
The bear market has months and months of room to run, Bank of America says
BofA chief strategist Michael Hartnett looked at the last 19 bear markets to project when the current one will end—and where the S&P 500 will be when it does.
”In the last 19 bear markets, the average peak to trough decline has been 37% with an average duration of 289 days. If history were to repeat then today’s bear market ends in October 2022 with the S&P at 3000,” Bank of America Research analysts wrote in a Sunday note.”
You make it sound as if 90 is cheap?! The average for the S&P used to be 18. In Europe most stocks trade on PE's of 10-15. There's energy companies, house-builders on PE's of 5 or 6 in the UK. I know Tesla is a growth stock but that's not a low PE. When there's uncertainty in the market, recession fears, a escalating war, political problems, distracted CEO, a CEO making increasingly bizzare posts... well the heady PE's in the 100s can't last forever. What we're seeing is the downside of a bubble. Like 2001 all over again. Tesla got pushed ridiculously high like a lot of stocks by fractional share investing on platforms like Robinhood. But that party is unwinding (I'm sure people have seen ARKK is down 70%+) and some people are making margin calls and selling down making the problem worse. Personally I love my model 3 - just have never bought shares. And no, I don't even have the knowledge to sell short. Tesla's fundamentals are incredibly strong - so given time the growth will catch up to the share price. I might dip in in the future - but I don't think we're near a market bottom. Maybe support at 50% of peak? Peak was around $1250. So $620s might be a good bounce.
Last edited:
As a trend, bear markets have been much quicker over the last 40 years. Bear markets prior to 1982 were long. Is that a change in how markets work, or are we due for a long bear? That's probably a scholarly argument that we won't know for a long time.The bear market has months and months of room to run, Bank of America says
BofA chief strategist Michael Hartnett looked at the last 19 bear markets to project when the current one will end—and where the S&P 500 will be when it does.fortune.com
”In the last 19 bear markets, the average peak to trough decline has been 37% with an average duration of 289 days. If history were to repeat then today’s bear market ends in October 2022 with the S&P at 3000,” Bank of America Research analysts wrote in a Sunday note.”
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's an insanely low PE for a company growing 50% YoY and guiding to maintain that growth for several years.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
hacer
Active Member
Wooloomooloo
Member
Today's the first day my TSLA holdings have been in the red since 2018. On the bright side, at least I don't have NVDA as well!
ZachF
Active Member
PE is about 50x this quarter and ~28x next year, and <20x for 2024….not really that expensive when growth is factored in.
Current PEG ratio is probably about 0.6 at these prices.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Forward P/E is 55 right now.
Let me repeat, Tesla's Q2 earnings could be a third less than Q1's and their YoY growth would still be 100%, the TTM P/E would still compress.
"In Europe most stocks trade on PE's of 10-15. There's energy companies, house-builders on PE's of 5 or 6 in the UK."
Sorry but this is such an dumb comment. What are the earnings growth estimates for "most stocks in Europe"?
Let's see.....I'm gonna guess in the single digits. That's why they have TTM P/E's in the 10-15 range..
Why do we have to go over this time and time again. It's the basics of valuation
Think the difference here is the Fed again. Tightening into collapsing markets and on record that their top priority now is crushing inflation via demand destruction and asset devaluation.As a trend, bear markets have been much quicker over the last 40 years. Bear markets prior to 1982 were long. Is that a change in how markets work, or are we due for a long bear? That's probably a scholarly argument that we won't know for a long time.
I agree that the above could happen very quickly in our new world. But no one knows in the end. If it takes a couple of years to tame inflation the Fed will do it via relentless rate hikes and QT.
A couple of years of this? Ouch.
Still looking for that capitulation day. Getting closer at least…
This is a continuation from my previous post. I misclicked on post reply and only had "added leaps" in them.
From the way I see it, a stagflation currently taking place in the world economy.
This inflation that we have now is mainly caused by supply-chain associated costs: oil, labor shortage... etc. This is not a recession. Far from it. A recession is when the economy is doing so badly that there's a huge amount of unemployed. People with no money cannot spend. So the continual downward spiral.
But if you take a look around, everywhere, and I do mean everywhere... even your around the corner mom-and-pop's shop is hiring. There's just not enough workers because many of them are still taking advantage of Covid related changes, be it unemployment benefits, WFH, or whatever your country/state/province/municipality/company have introduced, and are simply distorting the labor market artificially.
Going forward, as we enter full re-opening and everything gets back to normal, the supply chain disruption would correct, adjust and eventually return to a normal, I expect sometime later this year.
For many companies though, the re-adjustment again back to normalcy could bring a rough awakening. Take a look at chip shortage, for example, the problem with chip shortage is that everyone is over-ordering, even at a higher price point, just so that they could either horde or have enough supplies. Many automakers simply gave up and blame any low performance on chip shortages.
The problem associated with low performance and loss of market would eventually catch up to them. The weight of debts, now with an ever-higher rate is going to crash those unprepared. Company goes bankrupt not because of not being able to sell, but because of too much debt and they no longer have the ability to repay.
TSLA, with its cash reserve and near-zero debt, the continual expansion in scale even during the most difficult times and the amazing price-neutral (it can continue to add demand even when priced higher) would emerge from this stagflation as a juggernaut the world of automotive or even any industry has ever seen.
I can see TSLA surpassing AAPL as the world largest company once we are out of this stagflation. Hence, I will continue to add more positions as my finances allow.
From the way I see it, a stagflation currently taking place in the world economy.
This inflation that we have now is mainly caused by supply-chain associated costs: oil, labor shortage... etc. This is not a recession. Far from it. A recession is when the economy is doing so badly that there's a huge amount of unemployed. People with no money cannot spend. So the continual downward spiral.
But if you take a look around, everywhere, and I do mean everywhere... even your around the corner mom-and-pop's shop is hiring. There's just not enough workers because many of them are still taking advantage of Covid related changes, be it unemployment benefits, WFH, or whatever your country/state/province/municipality/company have introduced, and are simply distorting the labor market artificially.
Going forward, as we enter full re-opening and everything gets back to normal, the supply chain disruption would correct, adjust and eventually return to a normal, I expect sometime later this year.
For many companies though, the re-adjustment again back to normalcy could bring a rough awakening. Take a look at chip shortage, for example, the problem with chip shortage is that everyone is over-ordering, even at a higher price point, just so that they could either horde or have enough supplies. Many automakers simply gave up and blame any low performance on chip shortages.
The problem associated with low performance and loss of market would eventually catch up to them. The weight of debts, now with an ever-higher rate is going to crash those unprepared. Company goes bankrupt not because of not being able to sell, but because of too much debt and they no longer have the ability to repay.
TSLA, with its cash reserve and near-zero debt, the continual expansion in scale even during the most difficult times and the amazing price-neutral (it can continue to add demand even when priced higher) would emerge from this stagflation as a juggernaut the world of automotive or even any industry has ever seen.
I can see TSLA surpassing AAPL as the world largest company once we are out of this stagflation. Hence, I will continue to add more positions as my finances allow.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
