Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Perhaps it's just all macro. I compared tsla against my amd investment as they are almost polar opposite when it comes to management, but similar when it comes to disruption. Both stocks dropped as of now almost exactly 50% from peak. Both with higher than expected guidance without any demand concerns. The ceo is loved by Wall Street, main Street, doesn't post nonsense, and doesn't cause drama. Execution machine with exceeding expectations 12 quarters in a row.

So you are saying that the TSLA stock price in the multiverse where Elon didn’t plan to buy Twitter and Tesla didn’t buy BTC, the stock price would still be around $650?

Let me pull that data out tonight just gotta finish solving some little problem with strings theory and I’ll get back to you shortly.

 

[Singuy]

When you start out with patently false beliefs, you can't use logic to get anywhere useful.

The cash known as USD has been losing value since forever. Try looking at any random inflation calculator (e.g. Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022). How far it's down from its all time high is just ridiculous.

Haha, since 1913, the USD has lost -96.6% of it's value.

 

[MC3OZ]

Why? Tesla wasn't speculating in BTC, they were moving cash to another form. The relentless grind that makes USD tend towards less worth is avoided. Short term volatility of BTC is the down side. It would be utterly irrelevant if it weren't for accounting rules that haven't kept up with the times.

We don't know the long term trend for future BTC worth.

However, regardless of the merits, the BTC investment isn't a "bet the company" proposition, or something that will have a material impact of the future value of Tesla.

 

[JustMe]

Haha, since 1913, the USD has lost -96.6% of it's value.

Yeah people were rich back then!

Ah the good old days….

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah people were rich back then!

Ah the good old days….

Those that stored all of their money under the mattress have lost out badly.

Inflation has happened in part because a lot of assets have risen in value.

A million dollars invested in real estate in the right locations in 1913 would have done much better than a million dollars stored under the mattress.

A million dollars put in the the share market with reinvestment of dividends might have done even better.

BTC doesn't pay dividends, the only play is asset appreciation compared to USD, or ease of transactions.

BTC transactions seem to be highly inefficient and consume a lot of energy relative to what they achieve. But Dodger is right, they do avoid some of the banker margins and transaction delays.

 

[Singuy]

Wasn't stocks suppose to be the ultimate inflation hedge since all the companies are the ones raising the prices therefore capturing all the revenue? If I have 50k, what would I do? Let it sit under my mattress as the dream of buying a Model Y slips further and further away or invest into Tesla that keeps inflation flat because they are the ones causing the price of the Model Y more and more valuable vs my dollar?

 

[redan]

Did any one else get this?

View attachment 812460

Ok, it's Saturday, with US markets closed until Tuesday morning. So I'll make an offer to my TMC brethren. Like @juanmedina, I was recently contacted by Tesla about the ability to launch something into space. However, rather than just a single photo, I have a 16GB time capsule. See email:

​ Congratulations!​

​ Our records indicate that you earned the opportunity to send a Time Capsule to Space during our previous Tesla Referral Program. After much anticipation, we are excited to begin your time capsule’s journey into Space.​

​ To ensure your time capsule is on board the flight to Space, please upload the content of your choice before June 30, 2022. Each referrer may submit up to 16 GB of content.​

My wife is a mystery author, so we're sending her books to space (to be read by martians? ) and we've attached a few family photos, as well as photos of our Teslas, dog and cats (which should make both @Unpilot and @Krugerrand happy). By my estimates, we still have 15+ GB left in our Space Time Capsule - if anyone wants to send a photo or some other electronic media up to Space, shoot me a DM and we can coordinate you sending it to me off-line so I can include in my Space Capsule.

And to tie into this thread, feel free to send me some $TSLA or TMC/Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable ideas to send up to Space.

 

[heltok]

Inflation has happened in part because a lot of assets have risen in value.

A kilo of gold has not risen in value, it’s mainly the dollar that has fallen in value. There is a nice site that tracks commodities stocks etc but in a different nominal unit gold: Www.pricedingold.com

What we can see here is that though house prices are somewhat volatile, they have not moved many orders of magnitudes measured in gold. Meanwhile priced in dollars they steadily grown two magnitudes since 1940. Which is mostly due to the dollar falling in value. This holds true for most assets. Assets that are easier to improve output with technology such as milk, eggs, transistors etc have fallen in value in varying degrees.

What we have seen this year is mainly that the market is reacting to expectations that the dollar will not lose in value as fast as before and the dollar strengthening somewhat. Bitcoin is a bet on many things, one of them being that the dollar will collapse and bitcoin one day be worth an infinite amount of dollars. With the current strengthening of the perceived future of the dollar, this part of Bitcoins perceived value has taken a huge hit this year. There are still many other part of the story, VISA replacement, black market for drugs, cartel to cartel transactions, remittance, micropayments, IOT, bot to bot transactions etc where Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptos are competing for market share bringing some perceived valued for investors.

Elon saw the falling value of the dollar and took a bet. For a while it had payed off, currently it has been a bad bet. What it ends up the future will tell. That they have to write a negative number due to strange accounting rules is just silly and we should ignore that just as much as we ignored it when they had made a paper gain on their investment a few months ago. It will look bad and wallstreet will make fun of Tesla, but let them. It doesn’t matter it‘s just noise. Like they made fun of Teslas burning, of Tesla burning cash or of Tesla fan being cultists for believing that one day Tesla would sell 500k cars per year. Let them have their fun with Bitcoin paper loss too. If they want to focus on things to confirm their world view, let them. It’s not our problem that they will miss out on one of the greatest investment opportunities in our lifetimes. In a few more quarters Tesla will be printing so much money even they cannot ignore reality any more.

 

[Tommy O]

Interesting point.

Now do five months. Or five days…

Boring point, unless you say more.

After learning more rigorously about about BTC and crypto, because of Tesla’s purchase of BTC, I’m now, unexpectedly, in the same position was in when I first invested in Tesla in 2016.

I read, in Chinese language and Chinese press, information that led me to believe the switch to EVs was inevitable. The largest car market in the world would be going all electric. Which means it was likely the rest of the world would be going electric. Immediately placed my bet on tesla.

Why? Tesla’s success and stock market performance, I believed, a binary outcome. EVs succeed, so does tesla. They fail? So does tesla. I thought tesla had a (much) greater than 50% chance of success.

I’m now at the point with BTC that I was with tesla in 2016. It’s a binary. I don’t know enough to be able to predict how BTC and crypto fare in the future, but it looks like the moon or the Mariana Trench to me.

So in this uncertain environment, I look for the worst possible outcome. That’s a loss for tesla, but nothing that will come close to harming the company’s long term valuation.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Wasn't stocks suppose to be the ultimate inflation hedge

The thing is, stocks were the first to inflate.

 

[Fred42]

My money is on getting a sweet trailer for RV/camping and then letting FSD drive them to their destination!

I don't know how they could charge a Semi used as an RV.

 

[Singuy]

The thing is, stocks were the first to inflate.

That's the hedge, it inflates faster than inflation....

 

[Ogre]

And comically, at the end of the video they talk about how they’re excited for the F lightening… not sure why they think it would be any different. Unless there’s a new F charging network that I’m not aware of.

With regards to BTC; I feel like the BTC pirates are going to use this long weekend to manipulate a crash to the next technical support (which is ~12k I believe). Hopefully the master of coin has a plan (other than BTFD).

It would be a ton of fun to test these trucks. Particularly since their Patrons are paying for them.

 

[damonbrodie]

Why? Tesla wasn't speculating in BTC, they were moving cash to another form. The relentless grind that makes USD tend towards less worth is avoided. Short term volatility of BTC is the down side. It would be utterly irrelevant if it weren't for accounting rules that haven't kept up with the times.

Ridiculous. Elon is the only reason they bought BTC. No CFO or accounting team would ever have made the same decision. It was arrogant and a mistake.

 

[Tommy O]

Ridiculous. Elon is the only reason they bought BTC. No CFO or accounting team would ever have made the same decision. It was arrogant and a mistake.

Maybe it was solely Elon’s decision, maybe it wasn’t. WHO CARES.

The rest of the business is chugging along. This is a distraction for people who aren’t paying attention to everything else that is happening in the world. Sorry to say that that includes me, because I spent 5-10 minutes or my day thinking about this and posting about it here.

Move. On.

 

[MadScientist23]

I don't know how they could charge a Semi used as an RV.

A great use for this if charging is available. Put a 5th wheel camper behind it, lots of people would love that for retirement

 

[FireMedic]

Ridiculous. Elon is the only reason they bought BTC. No CFO or accounting team would ever have made the same decision. It was arrogant and a mistake.

Just say it; you know better than Elon.

 

[JustMe]

Boring point, unless you say more.

That’s funny my wife tells me I’m boring when I talk too much!

I’ve said enough - the rest is left as an exercise for the reader

 

[StapleGun]

Just to put this whole BTC thing in context, they purchased about $1.50/share of BTC. The current paper loss is about $0.60/share. In an alternate universe where they held cash, the share price should be 60 cents higher.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Ridiculous. Elon is the only reason they bought BTC. No CFO or accounting team would ever have made the same decision. It was arrogant and a mistake.

Time will tell if it was a mistake or not. I find it amusing that the volatility in crypto/btc seems to have caught many here off guard. There wasn't much bellyaching when btc was booming.