Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Agree the natural sound will also be the new cool. But having a spare car kinda defeats the gamesmanship of that limping one who makes it past the finish line. We'll do better than that IMO, energy density and tabless will change this mostly. And one other thing...

Consider the vehicles may not be restricted to one pair of cables internally. Think quad charging, 4 complete packs and cooling. Charging at 4 Jacking locations (to swap the tires), but I'm just making this up so who knows. Now THAT's a contactor (for those who weren't sure about contactors). It may even have a popping sound from an instanta charge, people's hair jump a bit standing nearby. Pop! Cooling lines too. I can't wait to see it now.

I don't know exactly what the solution for endurance is, perhaps removable battery packs is the way to go. There is zero chance they are going to be able to deliver 80 kWh during a typical 12 second pit stop. Having the half the field parked in the pits for ~5-10 minutes is also a non-starter.

The idea of relay style races is just a thought I had for how they could overcome this. Having 2 cars in the race means twice as many chances for mechanical issues, it also means your favorite team has a smaller chance of getting eliminated completely. It does go against the maverick/ lone frontman style NASCAR is associated with.

It'll be interesting to see if there is a NASCAR style race series which goes EV and how they make it work.

Considering Tesla's $0 advertising budget, we might end up with this weird series where cars which are much less performant on the streets are competing on the track.

 

[Ogre]

And I paid $US7.80/gallon for diesel in remote Yukon earlier this year. BUT….gasbuddy has a very different story for the San Bernardino area: $6.00-$6.10 for premium as of yesterday. I guess it depends on where one looks. Best Gas Prices & Local Gas Stations in San Bernardino County, CA , but I’ll guarantee you that independent truckers, those hauling consumer goods, are not in the habit of going to the more expensive pumps in any given area.

I don't understand why you are making so much noise over this. You blame Twitter, but I've seen far more commentary here on the $7.11 post then on Twitter. Even if it did come from Twitter, I don't see the "harm" in it. It's at most a goofy coincidence.

 

[RichardL]

I don't know exactly what the solution for endurance is, perhaps removable battery packs is the way to go. There is zero chance they are going to be able to deliver 80 kWh during a typical 12 second pit stop. Having the half the field parked in the pits for ~5-10 minutes is also a non-starter.

The idea of relay style races is just a thought I had for how they could overcome this. Having 2 cars in the race means twice as many chances for mechanical issues, it also means your favorite team has a smaller chance of getting eliminated completely. It does go against the maverick/ lone frontman style NASCAR is associated with.

It'll be interesting to see if there is a NASCAR style race series which goes EV and how they make it work.

Considering Tesla's $0 advertising budget, we might end up with this weird series where cars which are much less performant on the streets are competing on the track.

You should check out Formula E - very close racing and very well supported by the manufacturers. Originally they did in fact have to swap car mid-race but now they easily handle a 45 minute race which is fine. The generation 3 vehicle is even better

 

[Ogre]

You should check out Formula E - very close racing and very well supported by the manufacturers. Originally they did in fact have to swap car mid-race but now they easily handle a 45 minute race which is fine. The generation 3 vehicle is even better

Sprint races and short duration races like what you are talking about EVs are a done deal.

That's why I mentioned NASCAR races specifically, they are often 400-500 mile races that last for hours with multiple pit stops. It's not the only long/ endurance type race series, in Europe they do more Formula 1 style racing, but fundamentally it is a different set of challenges than just going fast in a circle.

I would love to see a rally series with EVs, then breaks between legs are expected and time for charging would be included. The challenge there would be delivering sufficient power to remote locations.


None of this applies to Tesla because it all falls into the bag of promotion which they don't spend on though so this will probably be my last post on racing.

I do think it would be amazing if a few years down the road Tesla put on a racing series featuring either the Model Y or the hypothetical 2 door compact. But until the market settles a bit, I just don't see them investing in this sort of promotional activity.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Whew....for a second there, i thought it was just Tesla that was cutting jobs...$F up 1.1% on this news....anyone remember how much $TSLA tanked after the '10% reduction" news by MSM? /s

 

[thesmokingman]

View attachment 819697
Whew....for a second there, i thought it was just Tesla that was cutting jobs...$F up 1.1% on this news....anyone remember how much $TSLA tanked after the '10% reduction" news by MSM? /s

The crunch is coming.

 

[Max Plaid]

There's a lot of trying to smear teslas brand, but this is countered by

1. Most people never hear about it because most people don't follow car companies. It may feel different as Tesla shareholders but when you talk to your peers, you realize they know very little about Teslas except that Elon Musk lands rockets and that Tesla makes the best electric cars like how bose makes the best speakers.

2. Neighbors and friends wouldn't shut up about their Tesla which most has nothing but positive things to say

3. Mind blown when they sit inside and feel how smooth the acceleration is

4. Double mind blown when the steering wheel turns itself.

Elon have said in order for his ev company to to survive, he needs FSD to succeed. This in conjuction with leading manufacturing prowess will get to 20 mil cars.

I mean honestly given the amount of attacks Tesla get constantly, more than any automaker, it is leading by an order of magnitude in market cap compared to those companies which has billion dollars spend on pr yearly. The proof is in the pudding that these attacks make about zero difference and Tesla just ends up living rent free in the mind of everyone.

Tesla has these 2 what they believe are the best pr teams

1. Pace of innovation
2. Pace of cost reduction

After wading through pages and pages of bickering and political crap and all the general garbage, and yes, I read it all, but did not feel compelled to add to the general effluence. However, I'm strongly compelled to respond to this line that you selling state as a fact:

"like how bose makes the best speakers"

I'm sorry, but they don't, they're just great marketing, and I don't want any other members here to be hoodwinked by this fallacy

 

[Discoducky]

The crunch is coming.

This statement seems like a very thinly veiled attempt to say that they are laying off thousands of people for 3 years in Spain and Germany.

Excerpt from article...

"Employees in Valencia and Saarlouis have been told that near-term restructuring will be required and that its size would be "significant", a Ford spokesperson told Reuters, without elaborating.
Ford had earlier warned the shift to EV production would likely lead to trimming its workforce as electric cars require fewer labour hours to assemble.
Ford's Valencia plant workforce is around 6,000 people while Saarlouis employs around 4,600."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp yesterday was nice and all but back to regularly scheduled programming it seems. Big underperformance by TSLA today which makes yesterday move not nearly as good when it comes to TSLA outperforming it's Beta.

Have fun Wall St while you can. No wonder Rueter's put out a false headline.......that Shanghai news is extremely bullish. Talking 90k/month starting in August with July being 80k itself. So 260k Q3 for Shanghai and 270k for Q4.

A 400k P/D Q3 just because a lot more likely. Could easily hit Elon's fav number.......420k P/D for Q3

260k - Shanghai
140k - Fremont
20k - Berlin/Austin

Meanwhile you have Adam Jonas cutting his 2022 estimates to 1.39 million deliveries. Adam I come from the future.......you're dumb.

Edit: Just saw his Non-GAAP EPS estimate for 2022 being 10.66.....

 

[Ogre]

During the recent interview, Musk suggested the Model S and X were mostly kept around for "Sentimental Reasons".

Seemed such an odd comment for a pair of vehicles which are likely hugely profitable, particularly once their current ramp is complete. I think it boils down to simple volume.

Musk wants to increase the number of Teslas on the road as quickly as possible. Cars like the Model S/X are not scalable the way the Model 3 and Model Y are. Given the same amount of floor space, I suspect their newer models would produce more volume and profits per square foot than the Model S and X.

I don't think Tesla is moving away from these cars, but long term they are going to have a smaller and smaller impact on the bottom line as the rest of the product line overshadows them in terms of pure volume. We already see this now, but I suspect things are going to get even more lopsided down the road.

 

[henchman24]

Welp yesterday was nice and all but back to regularly scheduled programming it seems. Big underperformance by TSLA today which makes yesterday move not nearly as good when it comes to TSLA outperforming it's Beta.

Day-to-day variations are always going to happen... so zoom out. Since last thursday, Tesla is up ~6.3% Nasdaq is up ~2.7%. Past month Tesla is up ~9.4% and Nasdaq is down ~2%. Since late May, Tesla has outperformed by a good amount. Late April and through late May it underperformed.

 

[dm28997]

FUD along with cyber security issues coming from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. One has to wonder if MSM turns a blind eye.

Russia launched cyber espionage campaigns against Ukraine allies: Microsoft

Russia has levied dozens of cyber espionage campaigns in 42 countries since it invaded Ukraine in February, according to a new Microsoft report. The report says those efforts have targeted entities…

thehill.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Day-to-day variations are always going to happen... so zoom out. Since last thursday, Tesla is up ~6.3% Nasdaq is up ~2.7%. Past month Tesla is up ~9.4% and Nasdaq is down ~2%. Since late May, Tesla has outperformed by a good amount. Late April and through late May it underperformed.

The underperformance started right when the Rueter's article came out. There's zero doubt in my mind that MM's/Hedgies knew of that false Reuter's article and already had the gameplan for the day's trading to walk it down.

As for my musing about the trading action, it's just musings while the stock is clearly in the grasps of MM's and hedge funds and their bidding. Have fun MM's/Hedgies in Q3/Q4 trying to keep control of this thing

 

[redan]

I didn't see this posted yet (I think we agree with the generational opportunity that TSLA represents):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539613109903450112

Tesla stock selloff created 'generational' investment opportunity, analyst says

The recent selloff in Tesla Inc.'s stock undefined has created a "generational investment opportunity" in one of the most compelling growth stories, said...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I didn't see this posted yet (I think we agree with the generational opportunity that TSLA represents):

Tesla (TSLA) selloff paved way for “generational investment opportunity:" CFRA

Tesla stock selloff created 'generational' investment opportunity, analyst says

The recent selloff in Tesla Inc.'s stock undefined has created a "generational investment opportunity" in one of the most compelling growth stories, said...

www.marketwatch.com

The funny thing about this 'analyst' Garrett the Carrot...is he used to be such a bear on Tesla.

 

[The Accountant]

I didn't see this posted yet (I think we agree with the generational opportunity that TSLA represents):

Tesla (TSLA) selloff paved way for “generational investment opportunity:" CFRA

Tesla stock selloff created 'generational' investment opportunity, analyst says

The recent selloff in Tesla Inc.'s stock undefined has created a "generational investment opportunity" in one of the most compelling growth stories, said...

www.marketwatch.com

Perhaps sharing too much but I feel it's necessary as the opportunity "light bulb" came after finding all of you on this site.
The generational wealth opportunity from TSLA has already been realized by me and my wife and our three adult children (ages 28 - 34).
One of my children purchased a home last year (all cash) and the first thing the realtor asked her was "don't tell me you're a Tesla-naire?
She looked at him in disbelief (how did he know?) and he said, "I see one about every 2 weeks".

For those getting into the stock now, I still believe it is a generational investment opportunity from here. May take a little longer than what we saw from 2019 to 2021 but it will arrive.

 

[ZeApelido]

Perhaps sharing too much but I feel it's necessary as the opportunity "light bulb" came after finding all of you on this site.
The generational wealth opportunity from TSLA has already been realized by me and my wife and our three adult children (ages 28 - 34)

Boy I sure hope they gave you a good Father's Day present.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Boy I sure hope they gave you a good Father's Day present.

The best father's day present i could ever get, would be hearing the words "Dad....from now on, we will not need a dime from you again...ever!"

 

[The Accountant]

Boy I sure hope they gave you a good Father's Day present.

Haha, yes they are very appreciative.
There were some shares I gifted to them but they also had their own investment dollars and bought in early June 2019 at $41 a share.
I coached them to HODL.

Edit: I know this topic is frowned upon in this thread but for full disclosure, I also taught them the Wheel to help supplement their monthly earnings. Their investment accounts are separate from their trading accounts to ensure no risk in losing their low cost-basis TSLA shares.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Perhaps sharing too much but I feel it's necessary as the opportunity "light bulb" came after finding all of you on this site.
The generational wealth opportunity from TSLA has already been realized by me and my wife and our three adult children (ages 28 - 34).
One of my children purchased a home last year (all cash) and the first thing the realtor asked her was "don't tell me you're a Tesla-naire?
She looked at him in disbelief (how did he know?) and he said, "I see one about every 2 weeks".

For those getting into the stock now, I still believe it is a generational investment opportunity from here. May take a little longer than what we saw from 2019 to 2021 but it will arrive.

I have sort of the reverse......parents grew up and raised me on low middle class wages. They've lived very modest their entire life. I make sure they're living like rock stars now. Their frugality tends to make it hard when try to get them to look into upgrade homes and things like extravagant travels/excursions.

"Just accept the first class tickets to Australia Dad! I don't care if you think Economy plus is enough leg room for you!"