Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Nope, started out separate frames, separate cameras all manual.
Then, it was 10ish second video climps with all eight cameras combined via NN with human labeling of objects that then forward and back propagated across cameras and frames.
Now, it's a huge NN doing the labeling and propogation with humans verifying and extending the object set.

Agreed and it could be many NN's actually with a functional efficiency goal of moving to one model to classify them all. In order to a high enough success rate, you start out by training a model to predict one object at a time. If they are far enough into the development, most likely they would start to consolidate.

 

[AudubonB]

You are likely to be disappointed then. From the linked blog post about the interview:

Thank goodness. I consummately hope this is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The capital structure and especially the ROI/ROCE of the entire extractive industry is completely different to and, I can argue, antithetical to the manufacturing sector.

Tesla may encourage - and in many ways - the development of a lithium mine or an aluminum refinery, etc., but they have no business being hands-on involved.

 

[Ogre]

Not sure how you figure "over-priced" when you can get a perfectly capable compact CUV ICE (Rav4, CRV, Equinox) for well under half the price of an MY. All with good safety ratings. Don't get me wrong, I want a Tesla, but you sure can't say they compete on price with common ICE vehicles.

My grandfather had a phrase "Penny Wise, Dollar Poor".

You are looking at capital cost, not total cost of ownership here.

While I'm sure that Rav4 might sell for half as much as the Model Y, operating costs are going to be $300+/ month higher.

If you own the car for 10 years (which I generally do), after your car is paid off, you are still saddled with those higher operating costs. Ultimately, you are paying far more for those "cheaper cars" then you are for the Tesla. If you sell the car, the Tesla will enjoy a higher residual value for that same reason.

This is all with current markets. If the current trend in energy/ oil costs continue it is only going to get worse. In particular, the resale value of used ICE vehicles is going to be particularly vulnerable. Prices on used ICE vehicles are already starting to drop while used EV prices are going strong.

 

[CLK350]

Re @Ogre's post Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

You are likely to be disappointed then. From the linked blog post about the interview:

Looking up @CorneliusXX 's post I get a 404 - was that post deleted, and if so what was it - why deleted - or if wrong link can someone (mod?) correct pls

 

[thesmokingman]

Deleted, mod deus ex'd.

Mod: not so, deleted by @CorneliusXX themself. Please don't automatically blame mods, it's a hard enough job already. --ggr

 

[Ogre]

Re @Ogre's post Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable


View attachment 822372

Looking up @CorneliusXX 's post I get a 404 - was that post deleted, and if so what was it - why deleted - or if wrong link can someone (mod?) correct pls

The quote was the entire content of his original. He was replying to this post about an Elon Musk interview which is worth resurfacing.

Full interview drops Friday July 1st and her podcast is named after the fact that she normally talks about rocks and stones.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541749448124022785

 

[Knightshade]

For investors, it isn't really earth shattering if the current hardware can't handle it either. Yeah it's not ideal, but let's say Tesla had to pay for new cameras and a new computer for all cars with FSD sold. What's that cost, maybe $2k per car? The revenue recognition alone would offset that.

If it were only a question of "replace 720p cameras with 4k cameras 1:1, and swap HW3 with HWx that's pin compatible" sure.

If it requires cameras in any at all different location or amount- not so much. Ditto if it requires more bandwidth for the data than the existing wiring can handle. Or more power/cooling than would made the HWx swap plug and play.


We won't really know how many, if any, of those are the case until it's "solved" though. I agree the revenue upside is so vast it'll more than outweigh the cost, but the cost is potentially a LOT higher than your estimate if it's any significant amount of the later things rather than the "only a question of" example.

 

[JRD1]

Autolabling greatly replaces hunan effort.
People validate labeled output instead of marking objects themselves. People are also needed to create new object classes.
One piece of Karpathy's Operation Vacation.

Buffalo also has labeling teams.

Was going to say the same thing.

To back this up, here is the link to 2 annotation jobs listed right now for Buffalo:

Tesla Careers

Careers Search

www.tesla.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting. I didn't know this was a thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541913111023816704

 

[AndrewZ]

Why do you think this? Just about every Tesla ever made is a robust data collection capable vehicle.

Current Mobileye equipped vehicles are not capable of collecting, storing or distributing/sending data outside the vehicle.

Mobileye claims they do, their Road Experience Management system collects only relevant data (they say about 10kb per km) from cameras installed in vehicles with forward collision-avoidance systems. Not only do they collect and send this data, they’re constantly updating and maintaining maps that are built in real time through the data and hosted in what they call Mobileye RoadBook.

 

[Discoducky]

Mobileye claims they do, their Road Experience Management system collects only relevant data (they say about 10kb per km) from cameras installed in vehicles with forward collision-avoidance systems. Not only do they collect and send this data, they’re constantly updating and maintaining maps that are built in real time through the data and hosted in what they call Mobileye RoadBook.

Source?

 

[AndrewZ]

Source?

This is their official page for it

Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

www.mobileye.com

You can find press releases via Google where they discuss data collection from various brands and from fleet vehicles etc. They say they have 200 petabytes of data collected over the last 25 years.

Mobileye is the originator of all this stuff and their hardware is still what powers AP1

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541886148154368003

BULLISH !!
Have people forgotten?
Remember what happened the last time Tesla focused on cutting costs?

Cut Costs in May:

Stock Soars in October:

. . . and there was a lot of doom and gloom at the time. Things were so desperate at Tesla that employees were bringing in their own toilet paper to work. Tesla was close to bankruptcy, etc.

 

[CLK350]

Deleted, mod deus ex'd.

Mod: not so, deleted by @CorneliusXX themself. Please don't automatically blame mods, it's a hard enough job already. --ggr

Wasn't blaming mods - only addressing them in case they knew something - but yeah, sorry I know you mods have been recently bruised - how insensitive*

BTW Twitter confirm from Johnna Crider

(*) And, for our overworked stressed mods in appreciation of their relentless never wholly approved efforts in keeping the thread focused / civil / useful

[OT] Edit post: since the lyrics may be lost in translation - this is the best so far that is known

HOW INSENSITIVE (Insensatez)
(Music : Antonio Carlos Jobim / Lyrics : Vinicius De Moraes / English lyrics : Norman Gimbel)

Perry Como
Shirley Bassey


How insensitive . . . I must have seemed
when she told me that she loved me . . .
how unmoved an' cold . . . I must have seemed
when she told me so sincerely . . .

Why . . . she must have asked
do I just turn an' stare in icy silence?
What was I to say . . .
what can you say when a love affair is over?

( instrumental break )

Now, she's gone away
and I'm alone with a memory of her last look . . .
vague an' drawn an' sad . . . I see it still
all her heartbreak in that last look . . .

How . . . she must have asked
could I just turn an' stare in icy silence?
What was I to do . . .
what can one do when a love affair is over?

What can you do
when a love affair is over?

It's over . . .

 

[nativewolf]

This is awful news. I've been away for 36 hours and we lose one of our most valuable contributors? WTH. I really hope this is not permanent. His experience and perspective were unique, detailed and definitely enriched our discourse. A shame.

Karen, Mr Green, and some very good posters don't even try anymore. However, take heart it's mostly just this thread and a handful of moderators and posters that drive off these good posters. Other threads have more back and forth and less cult like activity.

 

[Discoducky]

This is their official page for it

Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

www.mobileye.com

You can find press releases via Google where they discuss data collection from various brands and from fleet vehicles etc. They say they have 200 petabytes of data collected over the last 25 years.

Mobileye is the originator of all this stuff and their hardware is still what powers AP1

Did you read it? Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

They are only collecting map related data augmented by the CANbus data (this is very limited in nature like %throttle, %brake, steering angle, headlights on/off, turn signal on/off, etc).

Not camera information.

 

[elasalle]

What if 4680's and single structural pack were super ambitious (but unnecessary) step for MY, but absolutely necessary for CT, Semi?
Could GF Austin - revert to just 2170's for MY and scale MY that way? From the get go, reverting to 2170s was the backup plan it seems.
With demand and pricing power, (& inflation) there seems no longer be a need to try to bring down price of MY?

the failure in production output for 4680 to scale for MY, might still be a great step in starting the CT, Semi programs early?

 

[Thekiwi]

This is EXTREMELY SUBSTANTIAL for Starlink.

Basically, if DISH gets an FCC license for that 12GHz spectrum (to use on cell phone towers), Starlink in the USA is done for. One tower using this would interfere with Starlink reception for a 13 mile radius.

DISH has access to plenty of other spectrum bands to make their 5G cell phone business viable. I smell a rat, someone (*cough* viastat or other rocket companies *cough*) is funding this to trying to materially shut down Starlink.

Its almost as if making unwise twitter comments about the current administration might end up having potentially negative outcomes when that same administration is making highly consequential decisions that will impact your business.

 

[bkp_duke]

Its almost as if making unwise twitter comments about the current administration might end up having potentially negative outcomes when that same administration is making highly consequential decisions that will impact your business.

At least here in the US, we have the right and responsibility to question our leaders, especially when we see corruption.

If said administration makes their FCC spectrum decision on anything except the facts, they will open themselves up to a substantial lawsuit.

 

[Accident]

Who was trying to sell two shares at the last minute? Ask at close