Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

I gotta hand it to Munro... they are taking full advantage of the fanboys.

That's the very definition of a YouTube channel!

 

[damonbrodie]

Well, i would be very worried right now if they had any sort of problem selling a bit more than 1 million model y's and 3's a year when they should be selling around 4 million in 2025. The biggest marked in the world is by far the sub 30K cars, so in my mind there is no doubt they will go into this marked at some point. Right now ASP's are also extremely high because there are almost no other car manufacturers managing to have any ev production at all.

BTW, I'm really happy you shared your model. The discussion about the accuracy/opinion on different aspects is exactly what I like about this forum. I hope you aren't taking offence to any of the comments or differences of opinion.

 

[kbM3]

It's not whether Telsa currently competes solely on price, apparently, right now they don't have to in order to take increasingly large chunks out of ICE sales. Consumers would not be paying more if the ICE car was comparable. We know ICE SUV's are inferior in just about every metric except for range. Even in that metric the Tesla wins if measured by the average range available each morning when you wake up.

Face it, the Tesla SUV's offer superior value or they would not be wiping out big swaths of the market when those ICE SUV's cost less. Car buyers are not stupid. Value does not always equal the lowest price, it's how much you get for your money. You will never convince me that in 2022 an ICE SUV is a better value for most people compared to an EV. Resale value on those ICE SUV's is really going to be in the dumpster, once the chip shortage has eased.

You can pay now, or you can pay later. There is no free lunch. ICE cars are over-priced crap. And don't be fooled by the archaic safety ratings. If ICE SUV's were as safe as you say, they would not be crashing, rolling over, catching fire, etc. and killing their occupants by the thousands every year. That could be your family. Tesla engineers go beyond a 5-star safety rating that is gamed by greedy and short-sighted car makers. Tesla has reams of real-world data to constantly improve the actual safety while other manufacturer's engineer to the synthetic safety ratings.

ICE cars are currently superior in two other metrics that are even more important than range.

1. Gas station/pump ubiquity. (PUBLIC charging availability).
2. Miles gained per minute (a 25 mpg 3 Series can add 250 miles per minute versus about 15 miles per minute for a Model 3).

In fact I would argue that if we reached equality on those (a Supercharger station everywhere there is a gas station with stalls that could add 250 miles range in 1 minute), it would be absolute game over, whether or not range was increased.

I know you have to add private charging (home/work) and cheaper costs as EV advantages, and those may partially or entirely offset gas public infrastructure advantages, but that does not change the fact that ICE cars have the unbelievably widely available, very high speed refilling capability advantage at this point in time.

Note again. I’m not saying gas refueling is overall superior to EV recharging. Merely that it does have SOME advantages.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Which of these are correct?

1,083B or 1,033B outstanding shares 12/31/21?

And for 03/31/22 macrotrends shows 1,157B for and ycharts shows 1,036B

Here is TSLA share count as listed in all of Tesla's various 10-Q/10-K reports 2020-22:

Date:​	Shares:​
04/19/22​	1,036,009,925​
01/31/22​	1,033,507,611​
12/31/21​	1,033,171,787​
10/21/21​	1,004,264,852​
07/22/21​	990,015,158​
06/30/21​	984,002,651​
04/12/21​	963,330,448​
02/01/21​	959,853,504​
12/11/20​	955,816,322​
10/20/20​	947,900,733​
08/28/20​	933,540,135​
07/30/20​	186,319,273​
07/24/20​	185,475,000​
03/20/20​	184,391,586​
02/07/20​	181,341,586​

 

[scaesare]

View attachment 822648

<pedantic_star_wars_mode>

Please... "Always in motion the future is."

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[PKEllefsen]

Oh sure - but for the next 12 months the cars and ratios are not going to change. I don't think Energy/Solar is going to have a material impact in the next 12 months either.

In the next 12 months revenue should increase more than deliveries as sales prices are going up. First in 2025 we will see deliveries going up a lot more than revenue as prices starts to drop noticeably and we might see the compact car in production.

 

[StealthP3D]

I noticed on the way up, your car actually caught up to a slow moving minivan ahead (which was crossing the middle line on most turns). In fact at 20:45, another SUV ahead of you pulled out to give you way.

I was thinking FSD would be way slow and hesitant causing a huge backup.

Q: what is the disengagement at 26:50?

When I test FSD on Mt. Baker Highway in Washington State, it's more common for FSD to be held up by other drivers than it is for FSD to hold up faster drivers.- If I did much FSD testing when the ski area is open, it would be the other way around. Skiers are keen to get to the mountain and get home again ASAP. Or is it to show off their superior driving skills? Because they really don't get home much sooner at all.

Did you notice in the video posted by @Sparky4life the uphill car driving on top of the centerline? This is not all that uncommon on such highways as some people are so terrified of driving off the mountain that they do stupid things. Logically, driving on the centerline actually increases the chances of going off the road (vs. staying centered in your lane) because it increases the chances that a downhill driver who is not paying attention might collide with your car also on the centerline and knock you off the road. Humans are not nearly as logical as commonly assumed (which is why we need autonomy ASAP).

The disengagement at 26:50 is simply @Sparky4life gripping the wheel too tightly as FSD whips the steering wheel around to make the hairpin corner.

 

[PKEllefsen]

BTW, I'm really happy you shared your model. The discussion about the accuracy/opinion on different aspects is exactly what I like about this forum. I hope you aren't taking offence to any of the comments or differences of opinion.

No, i don't mind at all. I actually really love criticism and generally hearing other opinions than my own. That's why i post these things to every forum i can find, so i can try to find out new things i hadn't thought of I've already tweaked my model quite a bit with the feedback I've gotten. The worst discussions i have are the ones where no one is disagreeing with my opinions at all.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Unexpected from JD Power:

J.D. Power says Covid-19 caused vehicle quality to drop globally, but not Tesla's

If you bought your car during or after the pandemic, a report by J.D. Power shows you may have been shortchanged on product quality. However, Tesla’s quality has actually improved since last year, making it […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[CLK350]

I really don't think this is an echo chamber. Negative views of Tesla portrayed by the media are shared here often and then debunked with facts.

Call me a fanboi if you will, but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla is killing it:
- unlimited demand at current production levels;
- best margins and profitability in the industry;
- most efficient spending, including on "extra's" such as AI, FSD, Energy etc;
- no debt;
- nice cash reserves.

I wouldn't want my money anywhere else.

To adress your list of perceived weakness:

• Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.

Service has room for improvement, but I see no evidence Tesla is not taking the criticisms seriously. They are trying to ramp service and building out the mobile service fleet, which is the most comfortable solution for most customers. TL;DR: improving each quarter and I see no impossible hurdles to overcome the coming quarters/years. You do raise a good point with this, but this has been discussed and Tesla is not ignoring the issue. So little can be said at this point IMO. Service could be a long term killer for the company, IF Tesla were to ignore it. But I don't see evidence they are ignoring it.

• Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.

Demand cannot be met at current production levels, so this point is moot. Yes, you would prefer to have any colour you want, but that won't increase Tesla's production ramp or financials. On the contrary, it would be counterproductive to ramp/financials and the mission. So this is a first world problem.

• Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.

See previous point on demand. Yes, it would be even better if there were more/better interior options but apparently there are plenty of people paying whatever price Tesla asks (ever increasing) for the current models. Moot point at this point in time.

• Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.

Don't want it, don't buy it. Economics 101.

• Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.

Other OEMs experience no delays on their new models whatsoever. /s

These products will come and they will rock. They will outperform the sports cars, semi's and trucks offered by the 'competition'. Patience.

Also, watch the Elon interview with the Silicon valley owners club. He explains in great detail why Tesla has to prioritize just building the current models from the current factories instead of doing all other things on Tesla's bucket list (software imrovements, new models, etc). Tesla is not out of ideas of stuff to do, but they need the newly built factories to scale first in order not to become unprofitable again. As an investor I'm very grateful Elon has his priorities straight and doesn't lose focus. (And no, Twitter is not a distraction. Tesla is doing great considering the circumstances (Covid, Russia, inflation and the supply chain issues that followed))

Don't get me wrong: I'm just as enthusiastic about the future of Tesla as you. A future in which Tesla offers more colours, interiors, software options and models. But for now those are all distractions and even detrimental to the main mission AND the business. Money talks. It will allow Tesla to add colours, service etc. And on the money/demand front (one ensures the other) Tesla is fortunately in a good and ever improving position.

I guess I belong in the superbull thread, not this one .

Re Black Swan events - here's one I'd like to share. Given the cojones and brains -or rather lack of- of our current leadership it really is a 5 sigma type event. Here goes.

The US deploys a TVA type project to remodel the travel infrastructure of our roads and energy systems. For the latter, deployment of modern (aka French) nuclear power stations in appropriate safe areas, and a revamped distribution grid.

It also goes 120% in V2X (vehicle to everything) and X2V - first with short distance transmitters embedded in roads, delineating road description with adequate % freshness/ reliability. Second with legal requirement for all moving vehicles (and pedestrians walking on roads) to carry a short distance transmitter sending vehicle (person) characteristics and intended destination. That would make robotaxis super easy for most any Ford/ GM cars/ vans/ buses and kill 99% of Tesla's advantage in AI vision.

 

[Nocturnal]

Re Black Swan events - here's one I'd like to share. Given the cojones and brains -or rather lack of- of our current leadership it really is a 5 sigma type event. Here goes.

The US deploys a TVA type project to remodel the travel infrastructure of our roads and energy systems. For the latter, deployment of modern (aka French) nuclear power stations in appropriate safe areas, and a revamped distribution grid.

It also goes 120% in V2X (vehicle to everything) and X2V - first with short distance transmitters embedded in roads, delineating road description with adequate % freshness/ reliability. Second with legal requirement for all moving vehicles (and pedestrians walking on roads) to carry a short distance transmitter sending vehicle (person) characteristics and intended destination. That would make robotaxis super easy for most any Ford/ GM cars/ vans/ buses and kill 99% of Tesla's advantage in AI vision.

I genuinely believe the US government is not capable of anything remotely of this scale anymore. Too much infighting and political point scoring. Our only hope nowadays is for a corporation to come around and improve things. TVA, Hoover damn, etc. would never happen nowadays.

 

[Budding]

Unexpected from JD Power:

J.D. Power says Covid-19 caused vehicle quality to drop globally, but not Tesla's

If you bought your car during or after the pandemic, a report by J.D. Power shows you may have been shortchanged on product quality. However, Tesla’s quality has actually improved since last year, making it […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Thats because it was so bad to begin with, the only way was up /s.

 

[elasalle]

I genuinely believe the US government is not capable of anything remotely of this scale anymore. Too much infighting and political point scoring. Our only hope nowadays is for a corporation to come around and improve things. TVA, Hoover damn, etc. would never happen nowadays.

same way Tesla AI/Dojo could spin off in many directions ...
#1. TeslaBot
... many other applications for AI in future

 

[CLK350]

I genuinely believe the US government is not capable of anything remotely of this scale anymore. Too much infighting and political point scoring. Our only hope nowadays is for a corporation to come around and improve things. TVA, Hoover damn, etc. would never happen nowadays.

I didn't want to mention it, but the other Black Swan event: the Chinese take over the US - they've already taken over most of Africa BTW, for the US it's be the unexpected variation of Lenin's famous words - "The (so-called) capitalists will sell us the rope by which we'll enslave them" - we already sold our tech to the Chinese in the 70's for short term profits (thanks GE leader of the trend genius not so genius after all Jack Welch).

They are well on their way to seriously challenging the USD, after having bought most of the (real) gold available. (We still don't know how much real gold is stored in Fort Knox BTW)

And we know our politicians can be bought for votes. The UAW currently. And (sorry to repeat for long time readers, but for newbies, always a good reminder): it's the Chinese gov who saved Tesla from the short term profit driven capitalists of the day, suicidal long term, but they truly don't care. They truly liberated Tesla from their dependence on the US capital markets.

The Third Black Swan event is more likely than both previous ones, curious to hear if anyone has any idea - message me privately.

 

[ZeApelido]

Step 1: Buy 4680 SR Model Y

Step 2: Disassemble the battery pack with my torque wrench and hacksaw

Step 3: Sell each cell for ~ $500, $400,000 profit in all

Step 4: Buy 4 x 4680 Model Y. Repeat Steps 2 & 3 for $1.6 million

Step 5: Repeat 4x for $6.4 million

Step 6: $25.6 million

...

Step 15: $671 billion dollars and I'm the richest person in the world.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I didn't want to mention it, but the other Black Swan event: the Chinese take over the US - they've already taken over most of Africa BTW, for the US it's be the unexpected variation of Lenin's famous words - "The (so-called) capitalists will sell us the rope by which we'll enslave them" - we already sold our tech to the Chinese in the 70's for short term profits (thanks GE leader of the trend genius not so genius after all Jack Welch).

They are well on their way to seriously challenging the USD, after having bought most of the (real) gold available. (We still don't know how much real gold is stored in Fort Knox BTW)

China is not taking over the US. What's happening NOW is that US multinational manufacturers are realizing how unreliable China is getting, and are slowly moving their manufacturing elsewhere like south east Asia, and a lot of it actually back to North America (Canada, US and Mexico). This will take a decade to complete though. Don't know what gold has to do with it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Step 1: Buy 4680 SR Model Y

Step 2: Disassemble the battery pack with my torque wrench and hacksaw

Step 3: Sell each cell for ~ $500, $400,000 profit in all

Step 4: Buy 4 x 4680 Model Y. Repeat Steps 2 & 3 for $1.6 million

Step 5: Repeat 4x for $6.4 million

Step 6: $25.6 million

...

Step 15: $671 billion dollars and I'm the richest person in the world.

I think you would run into a demand problem way before you got to step 15.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Texas wants help from Elon with their grid. Elon should say "sure, if you let us sell our cars here"

Texas Rep. asks Elon Musk to work with gov't to improve the US' power grid

TX Rep. wrote a letter asking Elon Musk for suggestions on how to strengthen the electrical infrastructure of the United States.

www.teslarati.com

 

[StealthP3D]

I gotta hand it to Munro... they are taking full advantage of the fanboys.

Alternatively, Munro is providing a welcome service for people who have far more money than they may ever need in their lifetime. These are the people who did not believe the TSLA FUD because they had confidence in their own vision of how things would play out.

It's all a matter of perspective. When I became wealthy beyond my wildest dreams almost 25 years ago, my perspective on money changed as money was no longer scarce while things like homemade blackberry pie were still scarce. I was shocked (in a good way) that I could ride my motorcycle to a rural cafe and buy a slice of homemade blackberry pie (made with the tiny wild berries) with ice cream and coffee for under $10 including tax and a very generous tip. I would have paid triple that! When an item is rare, the market seeks out the people who value money the least. The only reason I could buy pie so cheaply was the happy coincidence that I also liked to ride my motorcycle in remote areas, with few people, most of them valuing a dollar a lot more than myself. Munro has a market as large as the Internet.

It's too bad that Munro is encasing them in epoxy! Maybe that' so he can sell the bare cells next month for $400/each without losing respect from those who paid $800 this month!

Only 1 1/2 days until the end of Q2!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think you would run into a demand problem way before you got to step 15.

Careful. The cat has ears.