Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes but..., in the past TSLA eventually gets pulled down/fades by the end of the trading day if NASDAQ stays deeply Red....

Yup

 

[Big Time]

If Tesla can squeeze out great numbers from Fremont and can get a chunk out the door at Texas/Berlin, hopefully they can beat streets estimates, & if we still do go down, hopefully its a max -10 or -15% between here and post ER...... on what could potentially be the last "bad quarter" for Tesla.

Echoing the statements of many here responding to "Why be upset about low prices"........ people are in all different walks of life here. Hopefully members here were not over leveraged and none of us have been overly liquidated. If any member of TMC experienced a unexpected loss of capital via margin call, that would be sad especially if it has really caused financial problems.

For me, at the ATH, my shares had performed 75% of what I need them to do for my goals. "Buying the dip" at this level...to add on 25% to my position would be all my savings. It just dosnt make sense for me to add at this price. I want to, but I believe having cash right now in my life may be the best bet. Im CERTAIN I will regret that, and any additional shares would eventually be profitable, but im at a stage in my life where risk management is crucial. For me the clock is ticking. Hopefully in 11 months from now we are approaching the $2,000 dollar share price.

 

[traxila]

Yup

Past performance is no indication….

Would you prefer outperformance to the downside?

Can’t we save that for the Q2 P and D and earnings?

 

[Matias]

i find it very weird that i can't find anyone who's glad to see the lower prices for their own sake

I'm waiting for the (possible) 500 (pre split) to jump back in. 500 comes from the fact that I sold with that price

 

[Singuy]

The problem with this is the idea that L2 Anywhere means you have a scalable solution to L4 (everywhere) or L5.
Anyone who has actually developed an application for companies would know that scalable applications are not based on what feature sets you have.
But the architectural design. So yes you can have a L4 system in one city that is DESIGNED to be scalable. If it can't work in one city it won't work anywhere else.

Think about it, if you can't go 1 million miles without a safety disengagement in one city, you won't be able to do that in other cities.
This is also proven by the fact the Tesla FSD Beta has similar categorized safety disengagement stats everywhere.


Scalability has just as much to do with infrastructure and logistics as it does with tech.
You need to look at tech scalability alot closer.
There are three techs involved in AV: Perception, Prediction and Planning.

When you say they "solved" perception. You have to remember that there are different road types: suburbs, city, dense urban, highway and rural
and different conditions: good weather (sunny, cloudy), inclement weather (light/moderate rain, light snow, fog), harsh weather (heavy rain, heavy fog, moderate/heavy snow).

Lets use Waymo as an example.
By going driverless in chandler, phoenix, they solved the 3 Ps for suburbs in good weather.
When they went driverless this year in downtown, phoenix and SF, they solved the 3 Ps for city and urban in good weather.

To be able to mass scale (5-10 new cities a year). You need to solve most use case.
That means surburb, city, dense urban, highway, good weather and inclement weather.
That way when you scale, you don't have growing pains trying to map out where you can deploy.
They are almost there, they have highway and inclement weather left.



The problem with this statement is that its factually wrong. You say no one is doing that. But the truth is that alot of companies ARE doing that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541468204211511298

If this statement was correct and we take Waymo as an example of companies whose tech (perception) doesn't generalize. You do realize that the tens of millions of people (Adults, Teens and children) who visit SF from around the world and from all over the country are in danger of being maimed/killed by being ran over by a driverless Waymo?

The same also applies to the millions of cars from out of state.

Statement still stands that it's not cost effective. I have seen the Huawei demo with their 10s of thousands dollar of Nvidia/Lidar hardware. No better than EAP. Does not make turns, doesn't do unprotected stuff, only goes in a straight line with the ability to change lanes. Also that video had many many cuts. Wake me up when these companies actually make a profit on their cars with that much hardware. NIO may be cooking the books on their margins but more evidence needed.

 

[henchman24]

Yes but..., in the past TSLA eventually gets pulled down/fades by the end of the trading day if NASDAQ stays deeply Red....

It has sometimes and other times it hasn't. Only have to go back a couple weeks to see a counter example.

The last time we were at this level was on the 17th... we were in the 650s then. On the 14th (also at this level) we were around 660. We are 1-2% higher than those days while Nasdaq is testing those level. It sucks we are dropping, but this continues to fit with the recent trend of Tesla out performing on bad days. There are individual days where things go differently, but this has been a trend for 6 weeks now.

 

[elasalle]

Macro, political and environment related ...
... backwards ..

Supreme Court limits EPA authority to set climate standards for power plants

The Supreme Court ruled that Congress, not the EPA, has authority to set standards on climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions for existing power plants.

www.cnbc.com

 

[elasalle]

Tesla loves Easter Eggs and hiding things in plain sight (Tesla Tequila). Even though the video was about the Supercharger at the raceway it shows the Tesla Semi delivering the chargers. How cool would it be if we get a major Semi announcement on the Q2 shareholders meeting?

I'm still waiting to buy some Frito chips

Elon's not tweeting and the SP keeps dropping haha

Last day of the quarter, no window dressing, but throwing out everything with the kitchen sink. Worst 1st half of year since 1970 ...

 

[ggies07]

Macro, political and environment related ...
... backwards ..

Supreme Court limits EPA authority to set climate standards for power plants

The Supreme Court ruled that Congress, not the EPA, has authority to set standards on climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions for existing power plants.

www.cnbc.com

This is the dumbest ******** thing. Why are we as a society holding humanity back due to some system of "laws" that were put into place in this one country on this tiny planet. I just posted an article showing again that we could be living in a better world. Damn this pisses me off and shows a lack of clarity in our species ability to do the most efficient thing.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I can't understand why people dislike low prices... My biggest wish is that we can just have one last year with stupidly low prices so i can keep adding to my position while the expected returns are higher than ever. I guess if you are very leveraged with margin or have short term calls that's fair, but for everyone else red days should be celebrated, not detested, like i feel they are for most people today

Oh … I’ll take a guess. Maybe it’s because many of us have already gone all in and have a ton of stock already? Maybe we are sick of watching millions of $$ drain from our accounts as tesla is down around 50% from the highs?


Just a guess.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thus far... we have a showing of strength in a gap down day.

Yet, today is a reversal of that normal pattern: we were at 1.40x macros all through the pre-Market. Now with the Market going South, TSLA is at 0.926x macros ( -2.51% for TSLA vs -2.71% for the NDX).

Hopefully there's some FOMO kicking in now for Q2 P&D numbers due in just a few days, what with lowered expectations (the Cat is at 83K).

Cheers!

 

[Matias]

The data overall is quite worrying globally. And if Europe catches a nasty virus the effects will be global. This analysis is generic, not country-specific:

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

www.theguardian.com

(Personally I am in many ways indifferent to this. I have a mild preference for TSLA to stay low for at least 6-months.)

Everyone should read that article.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yet, today is a reversal of that normal pattern: we were at 1.40x macros all through the pre-Market. Now with the Market going South, TSLA is at 0.926x macros ( -2.51% for TSLA vs -2.71% for the NDX).

Hopefully there's some FOMO kicking in now for Q2 P&D numbers due in just a few days, what with lowered expectations (the Cat is at 83K).

Cheers!

These scumbags are standing around playing chicken on fund rebalancing day and can simply buy into TSLA slightly below it's inclusion price. Absurd. This market is completely rigged. We'll be at $1350 by Christmas and all the hedgies can say they beat S&P500 funds by .1% on their TSLA allocations.

Remember just after inclusion when we were all crowing that hedgies not in at $695 would be screwed? Not if you have the SEC and MM's on your side! You can be wrong 87 times and STILL look good in the end.

Melvin Capital should dead, bankrupt, and buried 6x over......they're having a great 2022.

 

[henchman24]

The real indication of strength (or lack thereof) will come at lows. If the Nasdaq moves to test 10,600 (and I think that is pretty inevitable)... 626 is the number to watch for Tesla.

 

[elasalle]

I'm buying a mountain ....
I'm buying a hill .....

I'm buying an anthill

 

[BornToFly]

It has sometimes and other times it hasn't. Only have to go back a couple weeks to see a counter example.

The last time we were at this level was on the 17th... we were in the 650s then. On the 14th (also at this level) we were around 660. We are 1-2% higher than those days while Nasdaq is testing those level. It sucks we are dropping, but this continues to fit with the recent trend of Tesla out performing on bad days. There are individual days where things go differently, but this has been a trend for 6 weeks now.

Not looking so good now my friend.... NASDAQ recovering and TSLA dropping like a rock.

 

[henchman24]

Not looking so good now my friend.... NASDAQ recovering and TSLA dropping like a rock.

Minute to minute variations always exist.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Melvin Capital should dead, bankrupt, and buried 6x over......they're having a great 2022.

Oh, look again:

Former Hedge Fund Giant Melvin Capital Shutters Doors After Meme Stock Failure — What It Means for Investors

The fund will cease charging management fees by June 1.

www.gobankingrates.com

Melvin has met his Moby Dick:

Plotkin Shuts Melvin Hedge Fund Reeling From Redditor Attack | Bloomberg (2022-05-18)

Keep the faith. Market justice holds.

Cheers!

 

[15Peter20]

The first time I bought at $666 it was funny, but I thought I'd never get the opportunity again.
The second time was amusing, but hey ho: last chance.
The third time I grimaced and bought. Hoping for the best.
The fourth time I rage bought. In for a penny etc.
This time I'm broke. Meh.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not looking so good now my friend.... NASDAQ recovering and TSLA dropping like a rock.

TSLA will be lucky to hold its beta. Already reaching nearing 2X Nasdaq, well on its way to 3X. It’ll get spoofed hard on any further macro rally and sent further down if/when the macros take another dive.

I find it hilarious that some posters try to act like this stock hasn’t been a dog since May 4th. We’re clearly back in the same trading patterns we saw all throughout 2021. Yes the stock eventually broke out, but Tesla crushed earnings and earnings for three fourths of the year and wall st was easily able to take the knees out of the stock every time. Yes this will break out in due time but until then, it’s rinse and repeat